Terron Chapman
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Georgia +12
Thursday’s game at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville will be a rematch of a Bulldogs, 72-58 win in Athens on Feb. 6. It was the Bulldogs (12-13) second straight win over the Commodores (20-6). The Bulldogs will enter this one with plenty of confidence after a win Saturday at home against Alabama. The Bulldogs may be undervalued entering this contest as they are currently listed as a 12-point underdog by the marketplace. The aggregate W/L record of the 13 teams that have beaten the Bulldogs this season is 240-108 (.690). Seven of those teams have already won 20 games. The Dawgs are 12-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. They’re holding opponents to 40% from the floor over the last five games. The Commodores on the other hand may have already peaked. They’ll have to find a way to rebound from a tough, 58-56 loss at home to Kentucky on Saturday. The Commodores may be emotionally drained after such a high on Saturday and may find it hard to get up for the Bulldogs, despite the aforementioned loss. Look for the Bulldogs to keep this one closer than the marketplace suggest, take the points. Play on the Georgia Bulldogs for 1unit.
Matt Fargo
Long Beach State vs. UC Davis
Play: Long Beach State -1
This game may look like an even match on paper, especially with the near identical conference records, but Long Beach St. is the clear superior team in this matchup. The 49ers were supposed to contend for the Big West Conference championship but it has not been the season they were hoping for. They are 6-7 in the conference but there have been some tight losses that could have gone the other way. All is not lost however. The 49ers trail fourth place UC Davis, tonight’s opponent, by a half-game and third-place CS-Fullerton by one game. Moving up from their current fifth place spot is big as securing either third or fourth place means a first round bye in the upcoming Big West Conference Tournament. Long Beach St. hurt its chances with back-to-back losses against Cal-Santa Barbara and Pacific, the latter coming at home by 22 points. The Long Beach Press-Telegram reported that Long Beach St. players didn’t leave the locker room for 90 minutes following that Pacific game as a team meeting took place to try and turn things around. “I thought it was a good meeting,” head coach Dan Monson said. The 49ers responded with an 11-point win at Idaho during Bracket Buster weekend and while the victory did not help them in the conference situation, it provided an emotional lift as they entered the final two weeks of the regular season. Long Beach St. can build off that win, a win that pushed it to 5-9 on the road this season. Obviously, UC-Davis is in better position for that first round bye as it has a better conference record and is playing this weekend at home but that does mean it is the better team. Three conference wins this season have come by four points or fewer while two of the Aggies overall 11 wins came against non-Division I teams UC-Santa Cruz and Whittier. UC-Davis lost the first meeting this season against the 49ers by 28 points and while that sets up a revenge situation for the home team, I believe it matter little as the only thing that proved was the Long Beach St. is clearly superior. The 49ers outscored the Aggies 48-16 in the paint and I don’t see it being much different here. Long Beach St. comes into this game with a 128 RPI which is certainly nothing special but UC-Davis is far behind with an RPI of 258. That alone shows us a major difference in overall talent. The 49ers have done this by playing an extremely tough schedule as their slate is ranked 84th in the country compared to a schedule rank of 202nd for UC-Davis. A quick look at the Long Beach St. schedule shows that eight of the 11 teams (Notre Dame, Green Bay, West Virginia, Clemson, Texas, Utah State, Kentucky, Duke) have at least 17 wins and five (West Virginia, Texas, Utah State, Kentucky, Duke) have at least 20 wins. Even with this, the 49ers have produced two more wins than the Aggies. UC-Davis is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games coming off an ATS win while Long Beach St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. 3* Long Beach St. 49ers
Craig Trapp
Wisc Green Bay vs. Illinois Chicago
Play: Wisc Green Bay -4
Love playing against bad teams and ILL CHI is a bad team. WISC GB is hot going 4-1 last 5 straight up. Even better is WGB has won 4 in a row ATS in this head to head and 8 of last 10 ATS. Today we will see why WGB won by 16 earlier this season their defense will clamp down on an ILL CHI team that only shoots 38 percent on the year. Total mismatch here as WGB keeps up their hot streak in this series.
Teddy Covers
Denver @ Golden State
PICK: Over 226
These two teams have met three times already this season, with final scores of 135-107, 123-122 and 123-118. There’s absolutely no reason to think that tonight’s game will be played at a lesser pace or with lesser offensive efficiency than any of the previous meetings.
The Nuggets are fresh, off since their win over Boston on Sunday. They should be fully focused here in their first game without head coach George Karl on the sidelines, as he begins his cancer treatment. Now that Andris Biedrins has played his way out of Don Nelson’s rotation, the Warriors have virtually no inside presence at all. That means that Denver should be able to score at will in the paint, driving to the hole and dishing to their big men, just as they’ve been able to do in all three previous meetings.
Golden State can trade points with Denver here – the Nuggets defensive intensity has been limited at best in recent weeks; allowing their opponents to hit 48 percent from the floor in their last five games. With perimeter studs Monte Ellis, Stephen Curry, Anthony Morrow, Devean George and CJ Watson pushing the pace on every possession and hitting jump shots galore, expect yet another high scoring affair between these two up-tempo squads. 2* Take the Over.
Ben Burns
United States @ Canada
PICK: Canada
I played on Canada over Russia yesterday. At the time, I noted that the teams were arguably the two most talented in the tournament but that I thought playing in front of the home fans would benefit Canada. That certainly proved to be the case. The Canadians jumped all over the Russians and dominated from the opening whistle. The final score was 7-3. Today, its the Canadian women who will take center stage. This time, they'll be taking on the Americans and this time the teams will be playing for the gold medal.
Yesterday, I said the Canadians and Russians were "arguably" the most talented teams in the tournament. For today's women's final, there is no argument - the Canadians and Americans ARE the two best teams. Therefore, it's only fitting that the two longtime rivals face each other with everything on the line.
The Americans are a great team. That said, I feel that the Canadian women will also feed off the home crowd, as the men did - and I look for that to be the difference - as they deliver a gold medal for the hometown fans. Consider backing the home team.
Sean Higgs
Oregon vs. USC
Play: USC -10.5
Have to feel that SoCal will be ready to exact some revenge on the Ducks tonight. The Ducks have not won since that game on January 30th going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. Cal has won 4 of 5, coming back tonight off a road loss at Washington. Look for some home cooking from the Trojans.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nuggets/Warriors OVER 226.5
The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams as they have combined for at least 241 points in each of those games. Plus, Golden State is 11-2 OVER in home games when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing an average combined score of 233.8 points in these spots. The OVER is also a healthy 12-3 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams at Golden State. We'll play the OVER for 1 Unit here tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Nuggets/Warriors OVER 226
Each of the last 5 meetings between these two teams have totaled at least 228 points, and each of the last 4 have totaled at least 241. These two teams play fast whenever they get together and the result is almost always a very high scoring game. In fact, the OVER is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams when the game is played at Golden State. We'll take the OVER tonight.
Freddy Wills
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -11½
I'm going with Vanderbilt I feel strongly that they will bounce back from the Kentucky heart breaker. Georgia has been tough at times, but have not much to show for it with an 0-9 road record. Vandy will be focused with revenge on mind for losing by 14 @ Georgia earlier this season where they shot a dreadful 32.8% and gave up 55% shooting to Georgia. Look for that to be flip flopped with a lot of other stats as Vandy is holding opponents to 38% shooting on their home court while shooting over 50%. The biggest advantage they will have is Georgia's inability to take care of the ball. Georgia -7 turnovers per game on the road and they were -11 TO @ home earlier this year to Vanderbilt. I look for that to be a huge advantage along with it being the first time head Coach Fox will coach at Vanderbilt. It will be a challenge trying to coach from the baseline.
Black Widow
1* on Loyola-Chicago +1.5
In a battle between two very evenly matched teams Thursday, we'll side with the home squad in Loyola-Chicago to get the job done. Loyola is 9-4 S.U. & 7-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 6.0 points/game. Loyola won the first meeting between these teams, 69-64, on the road back in December as an 11.5-point underdog. This team has struggled down the stretch, but Loyola is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1997. Loyola is also 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road losses since 1997. With how well this team has played at home this season, Loyola is showing great value as a home dog here. Take Loyola-Chicago and the points.
Wunderdog
Detroit vs. Cleveland State
Play: Detroit +6
The Cleveland State Vikings were looking good, but then started to hit the wall and they have now lost three straight inside the conference. The Titans have suffered the same plight, dropping their last three in conference play. The Titans seem to be the team that rises to the occasion as they have posted an 8-3 ATS mark on the road, but more importantly, they are 6-2-1 ATS as a dog and have also been a good bounce-back team at 7-3 ATS after a loss. The Vikings are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 at home and have failed to cover their last six after an ATS win, and stand winless ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. I'll side with Detroit in this one.
Jack Jones
Vanderbilt -12
The 20-6 Vanderbilt Commodores should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against 12-13 Georgia tonight. Georgia is 1-10 on the road this season, losing by an average of 10.8 points/game. Vanderbilt is 13-1 at home this season, winning by 16.5 points/game. The Commodores have had 4 days' rest since losing a heartbreaker to Kentucky, 56-58, and they'll take it out on the Bulldogs tonight. Vandy actually lost to Georgia on the road back on February 6th earlier this month, so they'll also be playing with revenge in mind.
This play also falls under a system that is 27-10 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 10 or more points (VANDERBILT) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win. Georgia is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Vandy Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona State –2½ over STANFORD
Congrats to Stanford for winning their first two road games of the season. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk about the chronically underrated Arizona State Sun Devils. The Pac-10 has gotten a ton of heat this season but let’s not forget how much talent they have put into the NBA over the past few seasons. Guys like OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and James Harden have all been picked in the lottery and have contributed to the current “talent drain” in the conference. Arizona State has weathered the storm to go 19-8 and 9-5 in conference play. It’s hard to believe a team like that could be on the outside looking in but unfortunately for the Sun Devils that’s the case. They absolutely must win tonight’s game against Stanford and probably go to the conference championship game to reach the tournament and that’s a major advantage to backing them tonight. The other is that Stanford is one of the least athletic teams in the entire NCAA’s and has arguably the worst defense in the Pac-10. If Arizona State has proven anything this year, it’s that they can score with the best teams in the country, shooting 38.2% from three, 51.9% from two, and 71.4% from the charity stripe. Their defense is even better; opponents manage to shoot only 43.1% from two and 32.5% from three. The bottom line is that Arizona State has better talent but more importantly more motivated to win this game. Should they get into the tournament as a 10 or 11 seed, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win a game or two. The “Pac-10 is a joke” stigma has been placed on this team and it’s a shame the selection committee will probably fall into that trap. This is a very good team that should make a statement tonight. Play: #547 Arizona State –2½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
LT PROFITS
Chattanooga/Appalachian State Under 148.5
The Over may be 9-1 in the last 10 Chattanooga Moccasins games, but they would be on a 2-0 Under streak if not for some late fouling Monday night and this total looks a tad inflated as they visit the Appalachian State Mountaineers.
Even with their recent Over streak, Moccasins road games are still averaging a combined 138.2 points this season, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total. In fact, although they are on a 9-1 Over run, only five of those games exceeded 148 points, including just one of their last four road contests. They are also shooting just 39.1 percent from the field over the last five games and a modest 41.9 percent on the road for the entire season.
Now, Appalachian State likes to play at a fast pace, but because this is fairly well known and their totals are thus inflated, the Under is actually 11-8 in all Mountaineers games that have had a posted total. Granted, they are averaging 77.6 points in their last five games, but they are only allowing 66.8 in those contests, and that combined total of 144.4 points is four full points less than this posted number.
Now we are not suggesting that this game will be a half-court snoozer, but we do not expect much more than 140 points to be scored, giving us more than an eight point cushion vs. this posted total.