Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 24,2011

Cajun Sports

Marquette vs. Connecticut
Play: Marquette +5.5

The Golden Eagles have very little room for error if they wish to make it to the dance this season, they will need a strong finish and some help. This matchup should help, as they own superior athleticism and shooting ability along with solid veteran leaders on the floor. Marquette has been tough on the conference road in the right situation. The Golden Eagles are 25-8 ATS facing a conference foe after going under at home in their last game. If they are on the highway that record improves to 18-3 ATS including 6-0 ATS in this price range. When installed as a conference road underdog in this situation they are a blistering 12-2 against the number including a perfect 5-0 ATS with a line range of 3 to 6.5 points. Marquette has done a nice job when coming off a home game posting a record of 75-47-3 ATS if they are on the road in their next game their record is 42-23-2 ATS. When the oddsmakers have installed the Eagles as an underdog off a home game they have responded going 33-18-1 ATS. If they are coming off a home victory in their last game they are 60-36-3 ATS, put them on the road and their record is 36-19-2 ATS. Strong technical support along with need could spell disaster for the host as we also note the underdog in this particular series has covered five of the last six meetings overall. Take the generous points here as the Golden Eagles overpower the Huskies and shock them on Thursday night.

Bryan Leonard

Buffalo vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State -3

The Bulls are just 5-6 straight up on the road this year with a 5-5 spread record. The last two times they played away from home they lost outright as road favorites. This is a team that is dominant at home but has a huge disparity with their road play.

Kent State was embarrassed the last time these two took the court as they were pounded by 25 at Buffalo in January. But the Golden Flashes have dominated the Bulls here in Kent winning the past 12 meetings in straight up fashion. Kent is 12-1 straight up at home this year with the last five games being victories by margins of 10, 13, 17, 21 and 17 points. With a chance to reach the twenty victory mark and embarrassing revenge we expect the host to win this game going away.

Brad Diamond

Northeastern vs. George Mason
Play: Northeastern +16

Visiting Northeastern is going into a gym down in Virginia where the opponent is on absolute fire. The talented, deep and well coached Patriots (Larranaga) should have an easy time extending their 13 game win streak against the combative, but thin Huskies. However, that does not necessarily insure an ATS money earner. Remember, GM is coming off back-to-back road wins over VCU and Northern Iowa (Bracket-Buster) and have just Georgia State next to finalize their regular season. If there is ever a spot for a MAJOR LETDOWN, this is it. Yes, the Patriots are sizzling with a perfect 14 game win streak in Las Vegas, but the line tension on the Vegas board is evident. Plus, I expect public dollars to follow George Mason, while the Huskies dribble in a 26-point revenge motive from earlier this season.

Sean Murphy

Boston @ Denver
PICK: Boston-3.5

This is the type of matchup where I expect a veteran team like the Celtics to thrive.

Boston is in the midst of a 'sweepable' four-game road trip out west, which started with a resounding 115-93 win at Golden State on Tuesday. The Celtics looked rejuvenated in that contest - sharp at both ends of the floor - shooting 55.6% while holding the Warriors to 39.3% from the field.

After tonight's game, they'll head to Los Angeles for a date with the Clippers on Saturday, and then wrap things up in Utah on Monday. Again, this is a trip where nothing less than a 4-0 sweep will satisfy.

Of course, the Nuggets finally pulled the trigger on the Carmelo Anthony deal to New York earlier this week. In their first game without 'Melo they absolutely went off, pouring in 120 points in a rout of the Grizzlies. That shouldn't have come as any big surprise, as teams often excel in their first game following a blockbuster trade.

What concerned me about that performance was their defensive play, or lack thereof. The Nuggets allowed the Grizzlies, who were without Rudy Gay, to score 107 points on 53.8% shooting. They also sent Memphis to the free throw line 31 times. You know the Celtics will be clinical in their attack tonight, and I'm not sure that the Nuggets will have any answer defensively.

The Celtics remain a better bet on the road than at home this season, where they're 14-11 ATS compared to 13-15-2 ATS at TD Garden.

The Nuggets have covered the number in back-to-back games - keep in mind they've posted only two ATS winning streaks lasting more than two games this season. In fact, dating back to the start of last season, they've covered in three consecutive games on only four occasions.

Denver will come out with plenty of energy, but I think it's only a matter of time before the Celtics pull away. If Tuesday's game was any indication, Boston is highly-motivated for the stretch run. Take Boston.

Scott Spreitzer

Georgia @ Florida
PICK: Georgia +6

The Bulldogs look to avenge a tough loss in Athens earlier this season. Georgia and Florida went to double-OT in that first meeting and the Gators pulled away for a 104-91 win. The Bulldogs looked to have the game all but wrapped up toward the end of the first OT period. Georgia led by three points, but instead of committing a foul before Florida got off a 3-pointer, Fox told his team not to foul and Florida's Erving Walker nailed a 30-foot trey to send the game to a second overtime period. Both teams shot well that night, but Florida outscored the Bulldogs 26-16 at the FT line which was obviously a huge difference in the game. Georgia has been outstanding on the road where they have won three straight games. In fact, the Bulldogs are on a 4-2 SU run in conference action away from home. And they're a perfect 6-0, 100% ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. Meanwhile, the Gators have covered just 3 of 16 as a favorite. I'm taking the points with Georgia on Thursday.

David Chan

Blues @ Vancouver
PICK: Under 5.5

I bet value where I see it and believe these Western Conference opponents will skate to a tight, low-scoring affair.

Over the last decade, for some reason the Vancouver Canucks have always had difficulties with the St. Louis Blues, and that's once again been the case this season.

Our sources tell us that Roberto Luongo will be sitting this one out, which means competent backup Cory Schneider will be between the pipes; Schneider (and the rest of the Canucks) will benefit from the return of both Dan Hamhuis and Keith Ballard, who played their first game in the 3-2 loss to the Habs on Tuesday night.

The Canucks have the NHL's best record, and that was despite missing six defenders for two weeks; Vancouver handled that transition period well.

With their 3-2 win on December 5th over the Canucks, the Blues join Montreal as the only teams to defeat Luongo twice in regulation this season; St. Louis has won two of three meetings this year overall.

And the Blues have done it by doing what most teams have failed to do; by effectively neutralizing the Canucks league-leading 25.2 percent conversion rate on the powerplay, giving up just a single goal in 11 chances.

Our sources also tell us that Ty Conklin will get the start in net tonight for St. Louis, as the Blues hit the road for another game tomorrow night against the resurgent Edmonton Oilers (note that the Blues have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five on the road).

St. Louis still has a mathematical shot at the post-season, but needs to string some wins together; to do that tonight, it will have to slow down this high-powered Canucks offense (note that these teams have a history of playing low-scoring affairs as the total has gone "under" the number in five of their last six vs. each other overall).

Consider a second look at the UNDER.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Dallas @ Detroit
PICK: Dallas +1.5

In what should be a tightly contested affair, which could very well see overtime, I believe the prudent wager in this contest is the Dallas Stars on the "puck line":

With the loss of leading scorer Brad Richards, the Stars find themselves in a fight for a playoff position; they've lost 11 of 13 and been outscored 50-24 over that span.

They are coming off a listless 1-0 loss Tuesday to the surging New Jersey Devils.

But despite all that, Dallas still has a very legitimate shot at making the postseason; it will look to get a big win tonight; “I think going into Detroit is as good an opportunity as ever to get a good win against a good team in their building, in a tough atmosphere,” defenseman Alex Goligoski said. “Those are the kind of things that gets teams going, so I’m looking forward to the opportunity to go in there and win.”

On the other side of the rink: Detroit had a season-high five-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss to the Sharks on Tuesday; the Wings are just 6-6-2 at home since mid-December.

Jimmy Howard is expected to get the start here and he's just 2-3-1 with a 2.32 GAA vs. Dallas lifetime.

Bottom line: Although Dallas will be playing with "revenge" here after being hammered by the Wings 7-3 on December 29th, note that it has in fact won seven of the last nine in the series.

A desperate Stars team keeps this one close down the stretch; I have no problem laying the juice for the goal and a half!

Marc Lawrence

Gonzaga at St. Marys
Prediction: Gonzaga

The Zags meet the Gaels at St. Mary's in a key West Coast Conference clash Thursday night in a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. After opening the campaign 17-2, the Gaels find themselves riding a 2-7-1 ATS streak entering tonight's contest while having dropped each of their last two games in straight-up fashion as favorites. On the flip side, Gpnzaga has bounced out a 2-4 funk with a four game win streak knowing they are 25-5 SU in this series. Look for the double-revenging Bulldogs to continue their wining ways here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Gonzaga.

Sam Martin

Georgia at Florida
Play: Florida

We considered using Florida as a premium selection, but with a potential lookahead spot with a game at Kentucky up next, we downgraded this to a 5* Play. Still, we think there is still line value with the Gators here tonight, as they are very good on their home floor and play excellent defense here, holding their opponents to just 63 points per game here in this building. And while Florida is in a lookahead spot, Georgia is in a letdown after a big outright road win in Tennessee the last time out. Not a big line for the Gators to cover here, and the defense gets the job done!

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT –1½ +146 over Dallas

The Stars have gone from contender to bum quicker than any team in recent history. Aside from losing 11 of its last 13 games, it appears as though the Stars have quit. They traded away James Neal, a character guy with grit and talent and although they received a quality player in return it hurts more than helps at this point. Brad Richards is another key injury and both Kari Lehtonen and Andrew Raycroft are playing scared. The Stars aren’t scoring goals either. They’ve been held to two or less in five straight and seven of their last eight games. The Red Wings have it all. They can score, they get great goaltending from Jimmy Howard and they’re determined to win. Perhaps the most interesting thing about this game is that the Stars have beaten the Red Wings in seven of the past nine meetings including three of the last four at the Joe. The Red Wings are sick of losing to this team and there’s just no way they come out flat or unprepared. Dallas is extremely ripe, as they have shown absolutely nothing over the past month and there’s no end in sight. Play: Detroit –1½ +146 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +158 over MONTREAL

The Leafs really found a hidden gem in goaltender James Reimer and the kid is no fluke. He’s in strong position all the time and the Leafs play with a lot more confidence with him in net. Toronto is very warm at the moment with three wins in its last four with only loss over that stretch coming against Ottawa in a game the Leafs absolutely dominated and probably should’ve won 5-1 or 6-1. They also have recent wins over Boston, Buffalo and a warm Islanders squad. The Leafs catch the Habs at a great time, as Montreal will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after playing in Vancouver last night. Montreal is also coming off the dreaded three-game trip to Western Canada. The Habs have dropped six of eight and had it not been for the goaltending of Carey Price last night that count would be seven of eight because the Canadiens were the second best team on the ice yesterday. Anyway, the Leafs have life and are now just six points out of that final playoff spot. They can leapfrog over the Thrashers here and with a game in hand they can move within four points of that reachable goal. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it in that we get a tag on the team that’s playing better and that’s in a more favorable situational spot too. Play: Toronto +158 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago –½ +147 over NASHVILLE

Nashville is a tough team to bet against or bet with because they’re about as unpredictable as any team in the league. They’re streaky and they can beat anyone or lose to anyone. Having said that, the Preds are in the midst of a mini funk with three losses in its last four games. They have only beaten the Blackhawks once in the past eight meetings in regulation and it’s for that reason we’ll exclude extra time here. Chicago usually beats this team and it’s one of those matchups problems the Preds have with Chicago. It also becomes a psychological disadvantage when you keep losing to the same team. Chicago is in ninth place in the West but they’re just two points out of fifth, as four teams are tied for 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. The Blackhawks are healthy and they’re heating up. They’ve picked up points in six of their last seven games and there’s no sign of them slowing down anytime soon. The puck line opened with the Blackhawks taking back a half puck and laying 70 cents, which is another strong indication of what will transpire here, as the books were looking to keep folks off the visitor. That didn't happen and as a result, the Blackhawks are now favored but we'll lay the half puck and take back 47 cents. Play: Chicago –½ +147 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

California vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -3.5

We won a small play with California on Sunday over UCLA and that big win means letdown time tonight. The Golden Bears had dropped four straight games prior to that and while they have lost a lot of close games this season, this is not the spot for them to be involved in a close game. Overall, California is 3-5 on the road which certainly isn’t horrible but all five of those losses came in Pac Ten games with the only two wins coming by a combined six points and one of those was against 2-12 Arizona St. I played on Oregon three weeks ago when it was hosting Washington St. and the situation was very similar as the Cougars were coming off a huge home win over Washington and they fell flat on their face in Eugene. The lone difference here is that Oregon comes in with more momentum this time around as it has won two straight games and it is actually on a long-term solid roll, going 7-3 over its last 10 games following a dreadful 0-6 run that included a 0-4 start to the Pac Ten season. In the first meeting this season, the Ducks lost in Berkeley as they fell behind early and could not recover. The difference in that game was free throws as the Golden Bears won that battle 30-17 which signifies some home cooking taking place. Even with that disparity, the Ducks must execute their offense more efficiently than in the first meeting, when they shot just 39 percent in the first half. California has actually won the last six meetings so the Ducks will be looking for some long-term payback. Oregon has played only three home games over its last eight contests and it has won all three of those so the new floor is starting to become a complete home court edge. Overall, Oregon is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and while it has been the favorite only once over that span, it came in the last game at home against rival Oregon St. The Golden Bears are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win and despite California owning this series recently, the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. 3* Oregon Ducks

Craig Trapp

West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Play: West Virginia +7.5

Backyard brawl part 2 will live up to the hype once again. These teams play such a similar style that lends itself to low scoring close games. Motivation is huge in CBB and not sure PITT has much to play for whereas WVU really needs to improve their postseason seeding. WVU might even pull off straight up underdog win but they will cover easily.

Jack Jones

Murray State -4

I am backing Murray State Thursday as a small home favorite over Morehead State. These are two pretty evenly matched teams, but with home-court advantage my money is on the Racers to race to victory tonight. Morehead State enters at 21-8 (7-7 road) while Murray State is 21-7 (11-2 home). So the Racers have only lost twice all season at home, and they have been blowing out opponents with consistency. Murray State is scoring 71.6 PPG while allowing 56.2 PPG at home, winning by an average of 15.4 PPG.

This is also a revenge game for the Racers, having lost at Morehead State 65-75 back on 12/4/2010 in their first meeting of the season. It was a rare loss in this series for them, as Murray State is 24-7 in all meetings since 1997 including 11-2 in home meetings during that time. The Racers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Murray State is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Morehead State. Roll with Murray State Thursday.

Info Plays

3* Oregon State -1.5

Reasons why Oregon State will cover:

1) Oregon State is 8-6 SU and 6-4 ATS at home compared to 1-10 on the road, that right there shows you how much better they are on their home court. The same could be said for Stanford, who is just 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road.

2) Oregon State is 10-2 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.

3) Stanford is just 2-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, and 0-6 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.