Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 3,2011

Cajun Sports

South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -10.5

Western Kentucky defeated South Alabama in Mobile back in January a game in which they won by nine points. South Alabama is 0-3 ATS revenging a home loss and 2-8 ATS as an underdog. South Alabama has struggled against conference opponents posting a record of 6-18 ATS their last 24 games. Western Kentucky has actually won and covered their last four contests including two games on the highway at Florida International and Florida Atlantic. WKU is coming off a road underdog victory over Florida Atlantic on January 29 57 to 53 as a 6.5-point road underdog. This is significant because Western Kentucky is perfect at 3-0 ATS coming off a straight up win versus a conference rival in their last game. WKU coming off two consecutive SU wins and now playing at home in this line range has gone 13-4 ATS, they are 17-7-1 ATS if the won both SU and ATS in those contests and a solid 12-3-1 ATS if they are coming off a straight up road win in their last game. We look for Western Kentucky to continue their recent success versus an overmatched South Alabama team. Lay the chalk here as the Hilltoppers roll past the Jaguars on Thursday night.

Matt Fargo

San Jose State @ Idaho
PICK: Idaho -5

Idaho has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 12-9 including a 5-4 record through the first nine games in the WAC. The Vandals did open the season at 5-1 in the conference as they have dropped their last three games but the last two came on the road and the lone home loss came against Boise St. by just three points. Playing at home has been a rare occurrence for Idaho as four of its last five games have been on the road and on the season, just eight of 21 games have been at home.

The Spartans are coming off a rare win Saturday as they defeated Fresno St. for just their second win since the end of December, a span of nine games. They have been a huge underachieving team this season as they have some great talent but it just has not come forth. San Jose St. is 1-4 in its five WAC road games with the lone win coming against a team that is just as bad, Louisiana Tech which is also 2-7 in the conference. The Spartans lost by eight points as 6.5-point favorites at home in the first meeting against Idaho.

Idaho needs to make a move this week with wins against San Jose St. and Hawaii as it faces Utah St. right after following by four consecutive road games. The Vandals are the best defensive team in the WAC as they are holding conference opponents to 39.1 percent shooting from the floor. So far this season, the Vandals defense has held 14 of their 21 opponents below their season scoring averages, including 10 of their last 14. They held the Spartans to 37.1 percent shooting in that first meeting.

San Jose St. is just 25-44 ATS in its last 69 games after playing two straight games at home and it is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games coming off a conference home win. The Vandals are 4-1 ATS this season as favorites of three or more points and they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog. The home team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings in this series with that one loss being the Vandals road win earlier this year. 3* Idaho Vandals

Marc Lawrence

Valparaiso @ Cleveland State
PICK: Cleveland State -7

First place in the Horizon League is on the line when 8-2 Valparaiso and 9-2 Cleveland State meet tonight in Goodman Arena. That’s right. Despite wins over both schools, the Butler (6-4) hasn’t done it so far this season in league play so the Crusaders and the Vikings now find themselves as prime suspects for the conference crown. Speaking of Butler, the Crusaders enter off a revenger with the Bulldogs and that may be their demise this evening as they’re just 1-6 SU after those emotional meetings. They’re also just 2-6 SU and ATS lifetime in this series with one of those wins coming at home earlier this year. We’ll look for the veteran Vikings (5-returning starters) to build on their perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record in this series when arriving with three or more days of rest and build on their 8-4 ATS log when playing with same-season revenge. Gary Water’s tourney-tested team realizes control of this league is on the ‘Horizon’ and they take full advantage. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland State.

Scott Spreitzer

Wofford @ Charleston
PICK: Charleston -3.5

Wofford is 12-10 and 4-5 on the road. The Terriers have already lost to College of Charleston 77-73 at home on Jan. 8 and they are 2-6 ATS the last eight meetings with Charleston. Wofford's best win was early in the season against George Mason on a neutral court. Forward Noah Dahlman leads the team with a 20.6 points per game average and shoots 63 percent from the field. Center Cameron McQueen averages 13.2 points and forward Tim Johnson leads in rebounds with an 8.5 average. College of Charleston is 15-7, 9-9 ATS and 7-1 at home. The Cougars played a much tougher non-conference schedule than Wofford with close losses at Maryland and North Carolina and a win at Tennessee. The Cougars' only home loss was against Clemson. Charleston is coming off a loss against Davidson but the Cougars are 19-7 ATS following a loss the two seasons. Guard Andrew Goudelock is one of the top scorers in the country with a 23.5 average and forward Jeremy Simons averages 13.5 points while shooting 61.5 percent from the field and leads the team with 6.3 rebounds per game. Look for College of Charleston to sweep the season series with another win and cover over Wofford. I'm laying the points.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

The Lakers are 34-15 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS their last 10 games overall and they are 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 Conference games. Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS their last 10 Thursday games. Kobe and Company are 1-5 ATS when playing one day of rest. San Antonio is 40-8 straight up this year. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. San Antonio is 4-0-1 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their last game. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS off a straight up loss. The Spurs are 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 games overall.

MTi Sports

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next at home next, 5-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists and 6-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Brandon Jennings shot worse than 33% from the field. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS (-7.9 ppg) with rest when they scored at least 15 points fewer than expected in their previous game. Take Milwaukee.

JR O'Donnell

Fla. International +4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 528 Troy

We are backing the 8-13 Fla International Panthers + the points tonight as @ 1st glance you will think we are crazy backing a crew that is 1-8 on the road ....... Looking deep inside the #s tonight , they matchup well with a poor poor 5-16 Troy Trojans ball club . We will back an ALL WORLD coach in FIU Head Coach Isaiah Thomas. The Panthers are looking to end a 6 game loss streak and these Trojans are the medicine to get the Panthers healthy. The Panthers are #2 in the Sunbelt in scoring and the Trojans allow close to 80ppg and they let opponents shoot 45% . The Panthers have a stud in D Wright who has a great motor and a true floor general. These 5 Panthers are averaging double-figures in scoring this season as. DeJuan Wright (14), Eric Frederick (13), Alex Legion (13), Marvin Roberts (11), and Phil Gary, Jr. (10). Now that is balance!!! Looking at the #'s The Trojans are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400... Fla International wins and covers tonight... 77 - 67 Final

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +149 over N.Y. RANGERS

From early October until the second week of January the Devils were everyone’s whipping boy. On January 9th the Devils woke up with a 6-3 win over the Lightning. They’ve only lost two games since then and only one game in regulation. New Jersey’s only regulation loss during that span came at the Joe against the Wings in a game that was tied 1-1 late in the third. Now the Devils will face a Rangers team that has beaten them three times this season in three tries. The Devils scored two goals in those three games at a time when they couldn’t get out of their own way. This is a different team since Jacques Lemaire took over and the best part is they know they can win and they’re playing to win. No doubt the Devils are aware of their 0-3 mark against the Rangers this season and you can almost be guaranteed that the visitor will come out with plenty of fire. New Jersey came off the break with a 2-1 win in Ottawa but that score was extremely flattering to the Sens, as NJ dominated from start to finish, outshooting Ottawa by a count of 33-16. Finally, the Rangers have been very average at home with a 12-11 record but this one is all about playing on the rejuvenated Devils in a great spot at a very nice price. Play: New Jersey +149 (Risking 2 units).

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

A tough night for Milwaukee, having to play at Phoenix last night and now heading to Golden State. On the other hand, the Bucks are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games playing on 0 days rest! The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the Warriors are struggling, on a 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS run. The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. Play the Bucks.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Tennessee State +4

Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, Tennessee State returns home with revenge in mind. The Tigers lost by 11 at Murray State last month, and I expect them to return the favor tonight. Tennessee State has been one tough cookie when matched up against quality competition. In fact, the Tigers are 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Tigers have also been strong in revenge games. It is certainly worth noting that they are 13-4 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers have quietly become one of the best investments in the country at 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Racers, meanwhile, are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take Tennessee State and the points tonight.

ROCKETMAN

Denver @ Arkansas Little Rock
Play: Arkansas Little Rock -1

Denver is 6-30 SU as an underdog and 6-28 SU on the road the past 3 years. Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 3 points or less or a pick. Denver is scoring only 53.7 points per game on the road this year. Arkansas Little Rock is 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS at home vs Denver since 1997. Denver is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. Home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Arkansas Little Rock tonight!

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Antonio Spurs at LA Lakers

For us, the answer is clear on which of these two Western Conference powers is the better team right now. Hint: it's not the team that's favored. The Lakers have played a very soft schedule through the first half of the season, and when they do play good teams, they typically lose like they did Sunday to the Celtics. We'll go with the Spurs and their 6-1 ATS mark as a road dog. Take the points.

Play on: San Antonio

Rob Vinciletti

New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Play: New Mexico State + 2

The Aggies are 7-1 ats in conference play this season and have won 16 of 20 times vs teams that are .500 or less. In the series they have won 4 of the last 5 times. Tonight they take on a Fresno St Bulldog team that has lost 7 of 10 vs winning teams and is 0-4 straight up and ats off a conference loss. Look for New Mexico St to get the cash tonight as a small dog.

LARRY NESS

UC-Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton
PICK: Cal State Fullerton -1.5

Fullerton won both meetings vs Irvine last season but lost earlier this month on the road to the Anteaters, 85-78. One could argue the Titans 'gave' the game away, committing 24 turnovers. Both teams feature excellent 6-6 players, Wise (16.7.6) for Irvine and Johnson (14.7-6.6) for Fullerton. Irvine is very deep on the perimeter with swingman Moore (16.8-6.4) being joined by senior guard Rembert (12.0-3.3), sophomore Wilder (9.0-5.8) plus two freshman, Starring (7.7-3.4) and McNealy (5.8). The team's lone big man is the 6-9 Losonsky (6.6-3.9). Fullerton has seen two reserves from last year step up big time this season, 6-7 forward Chin (13.0-6.0) and guard Peltier (13.8). The 6-6 Hardy (12.2-9.3), an Oral Roberts transfer, has been excellent inside while two freshman, Webster (8.3-5.4 APG) and Umipig (6.9) have done a solid job in the backcourt. Fullerton needs to control the flow of the game to win and I'm betting it does just that. Take the home team (minus those 24 turnovers this time!).