Dave Price
1 Unit on Gonzaga Bulldogs -4
The Zags have had Portland's number, and I don't expect that to change tonight. Gonzaga has won 16 straight in this series overall. The Bulldogs are also on a 14-0 run at Portland since 1998, winning those contests by an average score of 82-69. The Pilots are coming off a big win over St. Mary's, but they'll have their work cut out for themselves against this more experienced Gonzaga squad, which already has a 13-point win against them this season. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oregon State Beavers +13
As if 3 straight defeats aren't enough to light a fire under the Beavers, a 31-point loss at Washington last month should do the trick. These teams met three times last season, and Oregon State played the Huskies to within 12 points in all three meetings. I expect this trend to continue here tonight. Oregon State is an extremely reliable 15-6 ATS as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons, only losing these games by an average score of 63.0 to 62.9. The Beavers are also a completely dominant 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points in this one tonight.
Jack Jones
Michigan Wolverines +16.5
Michigan gave Ohio State a scare in their first meeting of the season, and I fully expect them to give the Buckeyes a run for their money tonight. The No. 1 team in the country is almost always overvalued, and that's the case tonight as Ohio State is asked to lay 16.5 points against a team they beat by just four points in their first meeting. The Buckeyes won at Michigan 68-64. The Wolverines are playing very well of late, winning at Michigan State 61-57 followed by an 87-73 home victory over Iowa in their last two games.
This play falls under a system that is 43-14 (75%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO ST) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less. Michigan keeps themselves in most games because of their effort on defense, where they allow just 62.8 PPG this season. Ohio State has not been blowing teams out of late, as six of their last eight wins came by 5 points or less. The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Michigan Thursday.
Black Widow
1* on DePaul +11
Plays on a home team (DEPAUL) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season, after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Because DePaul has been so bad this season, they are to the point where the Blue Demons are showing excellent value against the spread. DePaul has lost eight straight to open Big East play, and have now lost 22 straight regular-season conference games dating back to last season. Sure, it all sounds bad, but the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame should not be favored by double-digits on the road. The Irish are overvalued after their 3-game winning streak here recently which included a huge win over Pitt last time out. That sets the Irish up for the ideal letdown situation tonight. They may get a victory, but it won't be by double-digits. Notre Dame is 4-4 on the road this season where they are only scoring 60.9 points/game. DePaul is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997. Meanwhile, the Blue Demons are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Take DePaul and the points.
Info Plays
3* Ohio State -16
Reasons why Ohio State will cover:
1) Even though the Wolverines beat Michigan State on the road, they are just 2-5 away from home this season. Michigan lost by 14 at Northwester, 19 at Indiana, and 16 at Wisconsin. No reason why the Buckeyes won't crush them tonight.
2) Ohio State has been shooting lights out lately, and are 33-14 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1997.
3) Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
Ray Monohan
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Miami Heat +1
My free pick on the Sixers won last night, lets keep the moneytrain rolling tonight with the Heat. Tonight in Orlando at the Amway Center the Heat visit the Magic in game 1 of the TNT Doubleheader. These 2 teams have met 2x already this year. They split both. Miami notched a convincing 96-70 home victory on Oct. 29 and Orlando won 104-95 at home on Nov. 24. The Magic come into this one sporting a 31-18 record, the Heat have a 34-14 record. Miami has won 3 consecutive games after defeating the Cavs 117-90 Monday. Wade is averaging 33.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the last three games. I like Miami tonight, just too many pieces for Orlando to stop. Wade heating up, LeBron and Bosh healthy again, Ilgauskas and Miller playing their best ball of the season is just to much for Orlando at this point of the season. Trends I like for this one include, Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games, Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +102 over ORLANDO
The Magic has slowly but surely been on the decline for the past month and you would have to go all the way back to Christmas Day to find their last impressive win. That came against the Celtics but since then Orlando has lost to every good team they’ve played and its wins have been against average or below average teams. Since Jan 8th, the Magic are just 7-6 with losses coming to New Orleans, Ok City, Boston, Detroit, Chicago and Memphis. With the exception of Detroit, all five others were the only teams over .500 during that stretch and they lost them all. Enter the Heat, a highly motivated team that is more than capable of destroying this host or any other team for that matter. Yeah, the Magic can win but they have no shot of blowing out the Heat and that’s the difference between these two. Anyway, the equation is a simple one in that when the Heat is being offered a tag and the “Big-3” is playing, we’re stepping in with no questions asked. Play: Miami +102 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Gonzaga Bulldogs -3
Portland and Gonzaga are currently tied in the WAC standings and the Pilots are undefeated at home this season, but they have not had any success against the Bulldogs in this series. Gonzaga has won twenty nine of the last thirty meetings between these two teams including the 14 meetings at the Chiles Center dating back to the 1995-96 season. The Bulldogs this season are not as strong as they have been in recent years, but they know how to beat Portland and I expect that to continue. Gonzaga is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against teams with winning records. Lay the points!
Red Dog Sports
Pacific vs. CS Barbara
Play: Over 123
Pacific has played 4 overs in a row and and UCSB has played two overs in a row. They average 125 ppg and 133 ppg respectively. They have played unders in 6 of 7 meetings but the last three at UCSB have reached 135, 124 and 129. Play the over on Thursday night and good luck!
Dan Bebe
LA Lakers -3.5
When I went to sleep last night, I was all set to take the Spurs, but significant processing, and a reassessment of the facts has led me over to the Lakers side in this game, and here's why:
First, you can get my FULL breakdown of this game in today's episode of "Today in Sports Betting" at http://bit.ly/ehZ8ix.
The short version, though, is that I feel the Lakers are equipped to win big games against teams that don't really shove the Lakers around.
Recently, the Lakers have had, in my estimation, 4 big games at home. They lost to the Heat and Celtics, and beat the Knicks and Thunder. Arguably, Miami and Boston are better teams than New York and Oklahoma City, but the fact remains, that Lakers won the games against teams that they could impose their size advantage. Against more physical clubs, the Lakers wilted.
I expect the Spurs to be somewhere in between. San Antonio is a great team, but they're not as physically dominant as the Celtics, not as powerful through the guard/forward spot as the Heat, but significantly tougher than the Knicks.
Lakers on revenge will look to take the ball inside and use their height edge. Blair and Duncan are a strong frontcourt for the Spurs, but they don't have the size or depth to compete with the Lakers cavalcade of 7-footers. And if it comes down to a big shot, I still like Kobe.
This isn't a Top Play, so play it for just a single unit, but I think we can wrap up Thursday with 1 unit of freebie winnings.
Michael Cannon
Miami at ORLANDO (-1)
Take the Magic for the home win and cover over the Heat.
Miami is still dealing with some injuries, as Dwyane Wade tries to play with a sore wrist and it’s showing in the results. The Heat are on a 2-6 ATS slide and are 3-5 SU in that span.
Orlando made some changes since the last time these two met, adding Brandon Bass, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson. The Heat will have to come up with a defensive gameplan to deal with those new faces, and they still don’t have anyone in the paint who can contain Dwight Howard.
Take the Magic for the win and cover.
3♦ ORLANDO
Derek Mancini
San Antonio at LA LAKERS (-3')
Statement game for the Lakers, who've been facing some major heat from the media, fans, and even ownership. I'm well aware they've lost some games this season that are headscratchers (Sacramento last week), and they've also had issues against the other elites (Boston Sunday), but I'm not ready to hit the panic button just yet.
Like what I saw from their big 3 against Houston, albeit it took an extra period to win the game. The Lakers could've very well gotten caught looking ahead to this game, but they still got the win (no cover). Look for a more complete effort tonight, especially considering how the Lakers got their asses handed to them by the Spurs in late December.
Speaking of their last meeting, the Lakers were held to 35% shooting at the AT&T Center, and there's no way in hell that happens at Staples tonight. For all their faults, the Lakers offense remains well above average at home, scoring 104 ppg on 47% shooting this season. San Antonio's defense also happens to relent somewhat on the road, allowing 47% shooting to their opponents. Long story short, the motivation is there for this Lakers team, who will go into this game looking for revenge and some credit from their many detractors. Lay it with the LA Lakers over San Antonio Thursday.
2♦ LA LAKERS
Bobby Maxwell
Miami (+1') at ORLANDO
For my comp selection, Miami brings a three-game winning streak into Orlando tonight for this division showdown with the Magic. They clubbed Cleveland on Monday, winning 117-90 and cashing as the huge 17 ½-point favorite. Tonight, look for big games from the big names on the Heat roster as they pull this one out late in Orlando.
The Magic have lost three of their last five, including an ugly home loss to the Pistons back on Jan. 24, falling 103-96 as a 12-point chalk. They lost on Monday in Memphis, 100-97 and failed as a 1 ½-point favorite. Orlando has come up short at the betting window in four of the last five games.
These two teams have met twice this season with the home team getting the win and cover each time. The key to Miami’s first win this season was holding Orlando to 30 percent shooting, including 4-of-24 shooting from the three-point line. The Heat also outrebounded Orlando by 11.
Miami has gotten everyone back on the court so they should be ready to march into Orlando and get this win tonight. The Heat are on ATS surges of 3-1-1 as an underdog, 5-1-1 on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of more than .600 and 3-1-1 as a road pup.
Orlando has not been so good at the window lately, on ATS slides of 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 overall and 1-6 against Southeast Division teams.
I’m looking for a close, hard-fought game down the wire, but there are just too many offensive weapons on the Heat. Play Miami in this one.
4♦ MIAMI
Joel Tyson
Michigan (+17) at OHIO STATE
I think the points are worth looking into this Thursday night in Columbus, as the Michigan Wolverines enter this game against # 1 ranked Ohio State with a little momentum in their corner.
Michigan has won their last pair both straight up and against the spread, and they have also covered the last 4 series meetings against the Buckeyes - the last 3 in the underdog role.
Ohio State is now 22-0 straight up, winning all 15 home games played, but is a pretty average 6-6 against the spread in their line home games. Of late, the Buckeyes have gone just 3-5 against the spread their last 8 contests - ALL 8 in the favored role.
Don't expect the # 1 team in the land to drop their first game straight up, but do expect them to struggle to get on top of this double-digit impost.
Take Michigan to make it 5 straight series covers.
2♦ MICHIGAN
Karl Garrett
Butler (-12') at YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Certainly not last season for these Butler Bulldogs, as Butler has been taking their lumps pretty regularly this year, but tonight's game against the Penguins should see Brad Stevens' team getting back in the winner's circle both straight up and against the spread.
The Bulldogs have dropped their last pair of games - both in overtime - and have dropped 4 in a row against the spread, but they will get healthy tonight against a Youngstown State team that has issues of their own.
The Penguinos have dropped 5 in a row, and 8 of their last 9 straight up, and are only 2-10-2 against the spread their last 14 lined games this season.
With straight up wins in each of the last 10 series meetings, hard to envision the Bulldogs losing a third in a row this evening. Have to lay the road lumber as Butler gets back in the win column tonight.
Take the Bulldogs in this one.
1♦ BUTLER
Chuck O'Brien
Tennessee at AUBURN (+8)
Now onto Thursday’s complimentary college basketball selection, as I’ll take Auburn as a big home underdog against Tennessee.
The Tigers finally got in the SEC win column Saturday and did so in stunning fashion, slaughtering South Carolina 79-64 as a 13½-point road underdog. Although Auburn had dropped its first six SEC contests, it did go 4-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog. It comes into this one having covered in six of the last eight games, including the last four in a row, and the Tigers are 3-0 ATS as a home pup during this span.
Auburn has history on its side, too, as the home team has won each of the last seven regular-season meetings and covered the number in each of the last nine.
Tennessee is on a 4-1 SU and ATS uptick, including two upset road wins at Ole Miss on Saturday (74-57) and at Georgia on Jan. 18 (59-57). But the Vols are 0-for-2 as a road favorite this year (68-65 loss at Arkansas as a one-point chalk; 49-48 loss at Charlotte as a nine-point favorite). In fact, the underdog is 10-4 ATS in Tennessee’s last 14 lined contests.
Finally, the Vols could be without two of their two leading scorers as guard Scotty Hopson (16.5 ppg) is questionable and forward Tobias Harris (14.7 ppg) is doubtful, both with ankle injuries. Only one other Tennessee player (guard Cameron Tatum at exactly 10 ppg) averages double figures in scoring.
3♦ AUBURN
Chris Jordan
Notre Dame (-11') at DEPAUL
Should be a no-brainer for the Irish tonight, as they take on the futile Blue Demons, who have yet to win a league game.
Winless in Big East play, DePaul is going to come in after a week off and won't be ready to compete with ninth-ranked Notre Dame.
The Irish, who are 17-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play, have won three straight, including a road win at Pittsburgh. That was a huge win for the Irish, who couldn't seem to win on the road, but finally put together a balanced act at both ends of the floor.
The Irish do a good job of keeping foes at arm's length, as they're averaging 74.5 points per game on the year, and are allowing 64.4 points on just 41 percent shooting at the other end.
That doesn't bode well for DePaul, which is being outscored by six points on the year, on averaging, including a points-against average of 74.7 points per game.
Notre Dame is catching fire at the right time, so I'll lay the points in this one.
2♦ NOTRE DAME
Scott Delaney
Montana State at NORTHERN ARIZONA (-8')
Going to side with the Lumberjacks tonight, as they will score an easy double-digit win over Montana State, which is a dismal 1-9 on the road this season.
Montana State picked a bad time to visit coach Mike Adras' boys, who are 7-1 at home and have won two in a row. Montana Sate, meanwhile, has lost three in a row.
The Bobcats have been idle since Saturday, while the 'Jacks will be fresh and ready to runble after dispatching Northern Colorado on Monday, 65-54.
Another factor for the Lumberjacks is the revenge theory, as they'll be out to avenge an early-season loss.
All the momentum is working in NAU's favor tonight, and Adras is a master at working those factors in his team's favor by tip time.
Play the Jacks.
3♦ NORTHERN ARIZONA
Jeff Benton
I know the Blue Demons are winless through their first eight Big East games. I also know that after cashing as a double-digit underdog in the first three of those losses, they’ve gone on an 0-5 ATS slide, losing by 11 (South Florida), 30 (Pitt), 30 (Marquette), 20 (UConn) and 11 (Seton Hall). And I know that Notre Dame has won and covered three in a row and is well rested, having not played since last Monday’s 56-51 upset win at third-ranked Pitt (as a 10½-point underdog)
All that said, how can the Irish cover THIS big of a number when they can’t put the ball through the hoop when playing in opposing Big East gyms. Prior to scoring just 56 points at Pitt, Notre Dame managed just 54, 57 and 58 at St. John’s, Marquette and Syracuse, losing all three games by double digits. In those four games, the Irish made just 79 of 185 shots (42.7 percent). They’re also a poor free-throw shooting team on the road (just 65.2 percent).
Yes, Notre Dame has won five straight in this rivalry, but the last four were by margins of 10, 10, 7 and 9 points, so it’s not like DePaul has gotten blown out of the gym. Additionally, the underdog has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings, and while Notre Dame is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll, it hasn’t had a four-game ATS winning streak all season.
Bottom line: This number is out of whack, the reason being that the Irish are coming off that victory at Pitt and DePaul is winless in conference play (and is in an 0-5 ATS rut). Take the value with the visiting Blue Demons, who average nearly 7 more rebounds per game at home than the Irish average on the road.
4♦ DEPAUL