DAVE COKIN
TEXAS STATE AT GEORGIA STATE
PLAY: TEXAS STATE +8
This one doesn’t figure to be pretty. Texas State and Georgia State are a pair of teams that don’t play very fast, and neither has been very good lately at putting the ball in the basket.
Georgia State figured to be down somewhat this season following a spectacular 2014-15 campaign that saw the Panthers upset Baylor in the NCAA tournament before giving Xavier a good scare prior to finally getting sent home. But the decline has been perhaps steeper than anticipated for Georgia State and this team is really struggling right now.
The Panthers have lost four of their last five, with the only win a fortunate overtime victory over Georgia Southern. Georgia State is no doubt thrilled to be back home following a bad road trip that saw them drop three straight, but I think it’s fair to say this is not a go-with team right now.
Texas State is certainly no great shakes. The Bobcats had a rough weekend in Louisiana, getting drilled by UL Lafayette and also dropping a decision at UL Monroe. But this matchup might be more to their liking. Texas State is frequently outsized but that won’t be the case tonight, as Georgia State is not a particularly big team, nor are the Panthers physical squad.
My expectation is that we’re going to get a low-scoring duel here. Neither team figures to be in a hurry, so I wouldn’t think this will be game with a load of possessions. Georgia State is the more capable entry to be sure, but the Panthers simply aren’t in good form at all of late, and that makes the prospects of them covering a good-sized spread more than a little dicey. I’ve got a revenge motive with the road team as well, plus I like the idea of grabbing all those points against a team that’s outside the top 150 and falling. Add it up and there’s enough here for me to take the plunge with Texas State and the generous number.
Sleepyj
Youngstown St. +11
A fine Horizon track meet for us here tonight..This game will be up and down for the entire 40 minutes...I might run out of gas just watching this one...Let's go back and look at the first time these teams met...They scored a total of 198 points...That's insane for a CBB game...Youngstown actually won that game and they shocked Oakland in Oakland...I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Youngstown was getting around +17 or +18 points in that game...Might have even been higher actually.....So confidence will play a part here for the Penguins...Oakland can score at will with Kahlil Felder..That's not going to change tonight one bit...What I think will change is the defensive effort the Penguins play.with..They are at home now and they know the Grizzlies want revenge...It's tough for me to lay -11 with a team on the road who could care less to play defense..I'd much rather the home team getting double digits here...We can get into all the stats we want for this game..They both can score and assist the basketball..Neither team gives a crap about playing defense..I'd hate to lay -11 and have the backdoor open the entire game..It also opens up runs for the home team with a solid crowd...I'll take a chance and go against one of my favorite teams in the Grizzlies...Felder might score 40 tonight, but covering -11 will be tough for Oakland to hammer out..Give me the Penguins +11 tonight in a barn burner.
Sleepyj
LA Lakers +10.5
The Lakers are not a very good team and we know that...They just snapped a long skid of losing the other night at home Vs Minnesota...It was a game in which Kobe Bryant looked like his old self again..Bryant went off and in the clutch he was just that...clutch....Lakers now take on the Pelicans tonight...The Lakers last win before they snapped the streak was actually against the Pelicans...So even though the Pelicans might have revenge, Lakers have some confidence...Pelicans just played a tough Spurs team last night and they lost that game...In that game Anthony Davis played 37 minutes and Norris Cole played 34...Ryan Anderson off the bench played 31 and Jrue Holiday played 30....So I would expect the Pelicans to be rather tired here on a back to back..Not to mention the Pelicans defense stinks...Lakers can score against these guys and if the Lakers come to play I would not be shocked to even see them win this game..Lakers can build off that win Vs. Minnesota...That was one game they actually looked like a decent team..One game that Bryant played very well...Odds are that won't happen again, but the effort to repeat that performance will be....We always want a underdog who will play the entire game..I believe the Lakers will do just that tonight...Tyreke Evans is out of the lineup for the Pelicans and he may or may not play..He is listed as DTD right now..Pelicans first and second unit is rather predictable..4 guys on that team without Evans in the lineup take all the shots..Davis, Anderson, Holiday and Cole...Lakers can key on stepping up the defense on these guys tonight and keep this close..I really think the Pelicans on defense will be poor tonight...It's enough to put me on the Lakers here..I'll take the +10.5 with this current Lakers team.
Rob Vinciletti
Hawaii vs. UC-Santa Barbara
Play: Hawaii +1
The Rainbow Warriors are a dog in this one despite having better numbers as they travel to the Main land to take on Cal Santa Barbara. Hawaii is 29-7 vs losing teams, including 7-1 this season and they have won 5 of 6 if the total is 140 to 150 and are 12=3 off a conference loss. Cal Santa Barbara has dropped 8 of 11 vs winning teams and both times off a conference win. They are a dismal 1-6 at home if the line is within 3 points of Pickem. We will side with the better team and go with Hawaii.
Mike Lundin
Lakers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -10
The New Orleans Pelicans are off a pair of losses and fell 110-97 at San Antonio last night. They're 4-0 ATS in their last four playing on no rest and I like their chances of bouncing back with a win tonight as they host the lowly Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant had 38 points as the Lakers ended a 10-game skid with a 119-115 win against the Timberwolves Tuesday, the first contest in their last 12 they managed to break the 100-points barrier. They're however 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win.
The Pels have dropped five games behind Portland and Utah in the battle for the final Western Conference playoff berth and will play five of their next seven games on the road. They can't afford to throw this "easy" game away, and I expect them to come out and play very very hard.
Marc Lawrence
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Ohio State +6
Edges - Buckeye: 13-5 ATS with revenge in this series, including 8-1 ATS when Wisconsin is off a SUATS win. Badgers: 4-7 SUATS versus opponents with revenge this season, including 1-4 ATS at home. With OSU off a loss, and Wisconsin off a win, we recommend a 1* play on Ohio State.
Scott Spreitzer
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: South Florida +19½
The Bulls have been "money" as a double digit underdog this season, cashing seven of eight times. While they're not at full strength, that fact has been baked into the line as far as we're concerned, with the spread hovering just short of 20 at the time of this post. South Florida plays well on the defensive end where they rank 44th in FG percentage allowed (40%) and 25th defending the 3-point line (30.5%). When you play that well on the defensive end, you're a tough team to beat by such a big margin, which is why this team has fattened bankrolls when getting double digits. One of those double digit covers came in January in a 54-51 home loss against the Bearcats. The Bulls frustrated Cincy all night long, holding them to 30.9% FG shooting, including 27.8% from behind the arc. Cincy is not bad, but nothing special on the offensive end and they're off a one-point win at UConn, with a game at Memphis coming up in just two days. It's much easier getting the competitive juices flowing against UConn & Memphis than it is against the 5-18 Bulls. And besides the 7-1 ATS run mentioned above, South Florida is on a 5-0 ATS run against teams playing better than .600 basketball, while Cincinnati enters on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams playing lower than .400 basketball.
Heath Mac
St. Mary's vs. BYU
Play: Under 151½
Both these sides are contenders in the WCC, along with Gonzaga. St Marys have been electric at home, where they have not lost a game with an impressive 15-0 record. On the road though, they have been solid, but just 3-2 SU. The main difference between home performance and away performance has been their offensive output – averaging over 80 ppg at home, but just 69 ppg on the road. The Gael’s defense remains outstanding everywhere, as they hold the 2nd best defense in the nation overall (59.6 ppg) and 3rd best on the road (60.4 ppg). The Gaels have kept 4 of their past 5 opponents to less than 68 points. It’s worth noting though that they have put up 68 and 64 points in their last 2 road games.
The Cougars are looking like a Tourney team again this season, with a few good players and an offensive game that is very impressive. BYU’s defense is not great, but at home they are allowing 69.8 ppg (ranked 205th).
This game will be a tight one and we are looking forward to it. The Gaels are a big chance to win the WCC and book themselves a Tourney spot and we think they’ll bring their full intensity in this game. BYU will have to get stops, because St Marys will be getting plenty and this one goes UNDER.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 5 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of BYU's last 6 games.
Jim Feist
Raptors vs. Blazers
Play: Under 203
Toronto is a long way from home and plays the second of a back to back road spot here. Toronto is very strong defensively, No. 5 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 9 in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 5-1 in the Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Portland is home playing some tough defense, on a 7-1 run under the total. They held Milwaukee to 95 points the last game in a win at home, winding up a 7-game homestand tonight. The Blazers have won nine of 11 and is eighth in the Western Conference. "This game was kind of similar to the last few games we've been playing," coach Terry Stotts said. "We've been playing solid defense." Portland is 4-0 under the total at home and the Under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Big Al
Tulsa vs. Temple
Pick: Temple
The Owls have been terrific at home when not laying more than six points, dating back to November 27, 2005. They're 54-19 SU and 46-18 ATS in this situation. But that's not the best part. If the Owls are playing a conference foe off a double-digit win, then our 46-18 ATS angle zooms to a perfect 10-0 ATS! With Tulsa, indeed, off a double-digit, 62-48 win, at home vs. Tulane, we'll lay the points with Temple on Thursday.
Ray Monohan
Raptors vs. Blazers
Play: Over 203
Two red hot teams go at it with Toronto heading into Portland here on Thursday night. With both offenses really clicking, the over has a lot of value here. During their current winning streak, the Trail Blazers have averaged 109 points per game. Not to be outdone, the Raptors have reached the 100 point plateau in 10 of their last 11 games.
These two teams also trend to the over very much. Toronto has seen the total go over in their last 6 road games. Head to head wise, the total has hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The key here will be the three point shooting. Both teams have the ability to hit the 3 at an unreal rate, but especially Portland. They average more than 10 made three pointers a game, which is only something 3 other teams can say.
Look for a very fast paced affair here, with both teams exchanging buckets throughout.
Will Rogers
Raptors vs. Blazers
Play: Over 203
The Toronto Raptors are hot, coming into Portland as winners of 12 of their last 13. The Blazers are also playing their best basketball, coming off five consecutive wins. I expect to see a closely contested game in Portland tonight, and the total looks a little low for a meeting between two hot teams.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Blazers have scored an average of 109 points per game during their winning streak, while the Raptors have scored 100+ points in 10 of their last 11 overall. The of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone over the total.
2. Three Point Shooting - The Blazers are one of just four teams in the NBA averaging more than 10 made three-pointers per game, and they knocked down 11 in their last game, a home win over Milwaukee.
3. X-Factor - The over is 6-0 in Raptors last six road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Power Sports
William & Mary vs. Northeastern
Pick: Northeastern
William & Mary is one of only five original Division I schools NEVER to make the NCAA Tournament. The Tribe are doing their best to end that drought this year as they're only one game off the pace in the CAA. It's debatable as to just who the best team in the league actually is, but tonight I smell trouble in this one.
W & M met Northeastern earlier in the year and was just a two-point favorite at home. Yes, they won that game handily (78-60), but still this line looks curious. One factor is that Northeastern comes in on a four-game losing streak. But all of those losses came by single digits and the Huskies were actually favored three times! It speaks volumes that they were favored here at home to beat Hofstra and perhaps the CAA's best team James Madison (lost to both). They also went to UNC Wilmington (who is tied for 1st) and won outright as 6.5-pt dogs. The Huskies are definitely better than their record. Consider they had a 14-point lead (in the second half) over Elon on Saturday here at home (lost by 4).
William & Mary is nothing special on the road. In fact, they were destroyed at Hofstra not that long ago, losing 91-63. They've followed that up by winning B2B games. Saturday saw them have to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit (trailed by as many as 18) to beat James Madison at home. So, an argument can be made that both teams here are coming off games where the final score was a bit misleading. Looking back at that first meeting, there was a huge discrepancy in shooting percentage (57.9% overall for W&M, 33.3% for N'eastern), particularly from three-point range (50% vs. 27.7%). That likely won't exist here. The Huskies have a GREAT point guard (David Walker) that you should be aware of.
Matt Fargo
William & Mary vs. Northeastern
Play: Northeastern +1
William & Mary is tied for third place in the CAA, a game behind UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra, who also square off on Thursday, which makes this a big game for the Tribe. They are 3-2 on the road in conference action with two of those wins coming against 0-10 Delaware and 1-9 Drexel and the other coming against 5-5 Charleston by just a bucket. They face an underachieving yet underrated Northeastern team which is a lot better than its record shows. The Huskies are just 4-6 in the conference including losses in four straight games but two of those came in overtime and the other two were also competitive throughout. They have also lost four straight at home but they are in a good position here with line value thanks to a 0-4 ATS run and an 8-1 ATS run on the other side for William & Mary. This is also a revenge game for Northeastern which suffered an 18-point loss at William & Mary back in January, their worst conference loss of the season. The status of Quincy Ford is still up in the air but is he can return here after missing three straight games, it will be a huge boost for the Huskies.
David Banks
Colorado @ Oregon
Play: Oregon -10
Oregon sits in first place in the Pac-12 and is a virtual lock for the NCAA tournament. The rest of the conference? It seems as if everyone is a bubble team including 16-5, 6-3 Colorado who will travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks on Thursday night.
The Buffaloes are one of four teams currently tied for second place in the Pac-12. A win over Oregon would go a long way in padding Colorado’s resume for the season-ending tournament. USC, Utah, and Washington are all 6-3 in conference play. If the Buffaloes are going to make a move, Thursday night is their opportunity.
It is easier said than done, though Colorado did beat Oregon, 91-87, in the first meeting between the two schools. Leading scorer Josh Scott scored 17 points, his season average, and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead the Buffaloes. The Colorado bench scored 45 points led by Tre’Shaun Fletcher who had 14. If the bench can do it again, the Buffaloes have a shot at the upset.
Oregon has not lost at home since an early season loss to UNLV. They have won their last four straight, including wins over a No. 21 USC and a No. 18 Arizona. Leading scorer Dillon Brooks, who shot 9-of-13 and scored 21 points in the loss to Colorado earlier this season, has been hot as of late. Brooks averages 16.6 points per game and is the reason why the Oregon offensive attack has been destroying Pac-12 defenses this season.