Alex Smith
San Jose at St. Louis
Play: San Jose +105
The San Jose Sharks continue their post-All-Star Break, four-game road trip with a matchup against the St. Louis Blues tonight. The Sharks are in second place in the Pacific Division with 56 points and have won eight of their last 11 games. St. Louis is close to getting their full roster back from injury with only goaltender Jake Allen (knee) and Jaden Schwartz (ankle) out indefinitely. Schwartz has been out since mid-October but could be ready to join the club in a couple of weeks after showing positive signs during recent practices. The Blues have done well in the Central despite fighting the injury bug all season. They’ve won six of their last nine and trail second place Dallas by only three points with two games in hand. The Sharks have been a much better road team this season than at home, with a 16-7-2 record overall including three of their last four. Balanced scoring has been a strong spot for the Sharks with 15 different players scoring at least one goal over their last 10 games. Goaltender Martin Jones has won six of his last eight starts with a 2.37 goals against and a .916 save percentage within that stretch. St. Louis dominated the Sharks in last season’s two meetings; blowout wins by the same score of 7-2 within five days of each other. Usually regular season revenge isn't much of a factor in the NHL but to to lose in that manner, it will certainly be on the minds of veteran leaders Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. I think the spot and the plus price warrants a play on the Sharks.
Wunderdog
Louisiana Tech @ Rice
Pick: Rice +120
The Rice Owls have certainly not fared well on the season, with just seven wins and 14 losses, but this has been a team that has done very well at home. The Owls have recorded a 6-3 mark on home hardwood over their last nine. They've tallied seven wins on the season with just one on the road, so they are truly capable on their home floor. The fact is that they are a one-point win away from being shutout at 0-10 on the road, so this team is better positioned at home than their record indicates. Louisiana Tech is 16-5, but many games were unlined games vs. teams they earned a virtual automatic win agains. Just 13 of their 21 games have been lined, and they have not fared so well in those at 5-8 ATS. The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU in their last seven, and just 1-4 SU in their last five lined games on the road. The Owls have found success at home, with the 16-5 and overrated Tech team not getting it done on the road. Play Rice on the moneyline.
Dave Essler
Phoenix +7
Yes, I'd have liked a better number - and yes, Dwight Howard is coming back. That does nothing for the Rockets perimeter defense, where the Suns CAN make shots. We got screwed by them in Dallas last week as they had a lead at the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter and proceeded to score three more points (nine for the quarter) and not cover double-digits. So, it's not like we were LOOKING to back them. But, at home - they're at least servicable. Montrel Harris and Terrance Jones are expected to be out for the Rockets - Capela is questionable. Yes, Brandon Knight is out for the Suns (likely) but shooters and guards is the one thing Phoenix DOES have - with just SOME defense here - they may not need the points. Houston hasn't won a road game by 7 points since they beat the Lakers (go figure) in LA three weeks ago - Phoenix played the Raptors tough the other night, had been on the road forever, and haven't been destroyed at home since the Spurs (go figure) hammered them several weeks back.
Brian Edwards
Texas A&M at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is one of the nation's most disappointing teams, but it has plenty of talent and plays well at home. The Commdores are in desperation mode here, knowing they need to string together a bunch of wins and this one is of particular importance since Texas A&M is the most highly-ranked SEC team left on the schedule. Kevin Stallings' team is 9-2 straight up at home and I think the 'Dores get it done tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Morehead State +7½ over BELMONT
This is a big game in the Ohio Valley Conference, as Morehead, sitting at 6-3, goes down to Nashville for a pair of games beginning tonight. They stay in town to play Tennessee State after this. Belmont and Tennessee State are 8-1 and 8-2 in first and second place in the Ohio Valley East division. The Eagles have some distinct edges they can work against Belmont, mainly, they can out-rebound them and get to loose balls. The Eagles are without question one of the quickest and athletically gifted teams in the conference.
Can the Eagles defend against Belmont’s favorite shot, the three-pointer? Well, Eastern Kentucky just came into Morehead’s place with the best 3-point percentage in the conference and left with a loss after shooting 1-for-17 from beyond the arc. Two players recently got back onto the floor for Morehead State after they each missed a handful of games due to injury. They seem to be coming together at a good time and the 7½-point take seems generous here. Don’t be afraid to use Morehead in a couple of money line parlays either, as we’re suggesting they have a legit shot of winning outright.
NORTHWESTERN -8½ over Minnesota
What a great time to buy the Wildcats. Northwestern has lost five straight so the value on them has increased dramatically because of it. However, the last four games have been all against ranked teams. The Wildcats now take a significant drop in class and those battles against some of the best teams in the country figured to have served them well.
The Golden Gophers’ athletic department is so thrilled that it hired Little Pitino away from Florida International after he had only one season of head coaching experience so that he could go 0-10 to start his third year in the Big Ten, including January’s 25-point home loss to these same Wildcats. Forget revenge, as the Gophers do not travel well and they have not responded well to anything the coach has been preaching. Again, Northwestern is off a ranked gauntlet (Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa). Three of the four were on the road. Class drop, return to home track to not face nemesis Penn State. Big stiff Alex Olah snuck back into the Northwestern rotation recently and can make a positive difference for the first time since. Northwestern is hungry and they could not have hand-picked a Big-Ten team more ripe for the pickings.
UTEP +111 over Marshall
Marshall is warm with seven wins in their past nine games but this is one of those troubled spots that we often look out for. You see, the Herd just returned home from a four-game trip last Thursday and they defeated Mid-Tennessee State by 16 points. Two days later, the Thundering Herd lost at home to UAB by three points. The Herd now embarks on another three-game trip beginning here. Marshall has three road wins in nine games. They rely heavily on their shooters to be warm because they play no defense. They are a top-heavy squad with a weak bench so many things have to go well for them to win on the road.
Marshall is going to take a lot of threes and not play much defense, which is to be expected from a Dantoni Brother operation. Opponents are hitting only 29.6% of their treys against UTEP, so it would appear that Marshall is embarking upon a long, long trip from West Virginia to west Texas in order to have their strength stymied by one of the strengths of the home side. The Miners stock is low with just one win in its past seven games but they can match Marshall bucket for bucket, they have a deeper bench and they play much better defense. Dominic Artis figures to leave some skid marks on Marshall defenders, as he alone can easily break the spirit of this invader. Marshall is no stranger to throwing in the towel. They have quit many times already this season and if the Miners can stay with it and play to their strengths, this could easily be a double-digit win for the host. Keep the points. UTEP outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +144 over Boston
OT included. This line is out of whack. The Bruins are just not good enough to be this big a price in Buffalo. Boston is coming off a 4-3 OT loss to the Maple Leafs in a game they led by two goals in the third period. They allowed the Leafs 31 high quality scoring chances and lost the Corsi for battle, 58-47. The Bruins are 5-5 over their last 10 games. They’ve surrendered 10 goals over their past two games. They have played the Sabres twice this year and were outshot in both games while splitting the pair with a 4-1 win in Buffalo and a 6-3 loss at TD Gardens. The Bruins have given up 36 shots on net or more in four of their past six games. Of course the Bruins can win here but that’s not our target. Our target is value and the Bruins do not warrant being this high a price on the road.
We have discussed shooting percentages being the most luck driven stat in the game. Therefore, Buffalo’s shooting percentage is in line for a correction to the good, as its shooting % is second lowest in the NHL at 6.03%.
GM Tim Murray doesn’t want no stinkin’ five-year rebuilding plans. The Sabres’ general manager didn’t draft Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel and figure he could spend a couple seasons watching his seeds germinate into a winning team. Murray had already worked his position before last season even ended by acquiring Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian. He danced with Mike Babcock and signed Dan Bylsma. He worked the phones at the draft to get Ryan O’Reilly and Robin Lehner, with the solid experience of Jamie McGinn and David Legwand thrown in. And who signs free agents in September? Murray did in adding defenseman and power-play specialist Cody Franson. The Sabres are dramatically better. They’re not a playoff team yet but the possibilities are there that give them a fast-forwarded result. Jack Eichel is the real deal. Ryan O’Reilly continues to be a Corsi hound while putting together offense. Evander Kane creates every single game and is relentlessly working hard. Rasmus Ristolainen is starting to harness the kind of talent that had experts thinking he could develop like Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Robin Lehner has been brilliant since coming back from a long injury and is proving that he is indeed a true #1 goaltender. Sam Reinhart looks more like the player every game in the NHL that he looked like at the World Junior Championships. The Sabres have had lapses but for the most part they have been very competitive all season long. They had a solid win last night in Montreal with a three-goal third period to put away the reeling Habs, 4-2 and they absolutely have a chance to win this one too.
Edmonton +109 over OTTAWA
OT included. Ottawa continues to be leaky. They allow more high quality scoring chances than any team in the NHL and they also allow an alarming number of shots on goal. The Sens are coming off a 6-5 loss in Pittsburgh after the break in a game they were outshot 44-23. That one goal loss was flattering to the Sens. It’s a rare game in which the opposition doesn’t fire away 36 shots on net or more on them and create 20 high scoring chances. This team is all offense and no defense and when they’re favored, they are almost always instant fade material. One year ago on February 14, Edmonton came in here in the first game of a four-game trip through Ottawa, Montreal, the Islanders and New Jersey and lost 7-2. This is the first game of the exact same trip only this time the Oilers have Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot. Last year, they had Victor Fasth in goal. HUGE difference.
Like the rest of the NHL observers, all we can say is, ”Wow”. McDavid changes everything about the Oilers. Not only did he dominate the game against the Jackets, he changed the mindset of his entire team. With him in the lineup, the players expect to win. Each player feeds off McDavid’s talent and hard work and they in turn work harder. All of a sudden, the Oilers have life. While the Oilers are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs, nobody is going to want to play them when fighting for a playoff spot. Perhaps once per decade does a player come around that has such a major impact on everything that happens on the ice. McDavid is that player and now the Oilers are high on our radar to watch closely and wager on when taking back a tag. Incidentally, Talbot has .936 save % and a 2.01 GAA in his last 16 starts but is only 7-7-2 because the Oilers scored 25 goals in the first 15 games before scoring five on Tuesday. Give the Oilers a better than 50% chance of winning here and give us any tag against the Sens.
New Jersey +127 over TORONTO
OT included. The Maple Leafs are coming off a surprising win (they were down two goals) in Boston after the break but it was well-deserved, as Toronto fought hard the entire night and it paid off. Still, Toronto allowed 42 shots on net. The Leafs have allowed 40 shots on net in three of their past six games. The Leafs rank 29th out of 30 teams in shots against per 60 minutes. That win over the B’s was only the Leafs second victory in the past 11 games. In the nine losses, Toronto scored two goals or fewer in all of them and in the two victories they scored three goals or more. That’s telling and it says that when Toronto scores two or less, its win expectation is on the extreme side of low. The next question is do we trust them to score three goals on the Devils? It could happen, but it’s doubtful.
The Devils continue to be the East Coast team that is flying far under the radar. The Devils defensive analytic numbers are outstanding. They rank first in the East and second overall in Corsi against. They rank fourth in the league for fewest face-offs in their end. The Devils have three outstanding traits that is likely going to get them into the playoffs. They have great goaltending, they’re quick and they’re positionally sound. The Devils have won five of their past six games with only loss over that span occurring against Pittsburgh, 2-0. Only once did they allow more than two goals against over that span but in that game they scored six times so it did not matter. The Devils have every advantage here, they’re in very good form and the announcement of Keith Kinkaid in goal has only increased the value here, as Toronto opened as a -110 favorite. Nice overreaction to Schneider getting the day off.
Anaheim +119 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. Los Angeles is just 6-6 over their past 12 games. Over that span, Los Angeles has losses to Colorado (x2), Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis. None of those teams compare to the Ducks. Los Angeles will have to play a great game to beat the Ducks and they’ll also need Jonathan Quick to have a great game. That may come to pass but even if it does, the Kings may still lose this game.
The Kings have 65 points while the Ducks have 53. The Kings goal differential is +20 while the Ducks is -9. On paper, Los Angeles is the superior team but hockey games are played on ice, not paper. The ONLY reason that the Ducks aren’t at the top of the NHL standings is because of bad fortune in the first 3½ months of the year. The Ducks shooting percentage is dead last in the NHL at 5.61%. Shooting percentage is absolutely the most luck driven stat in the game. To give you just a small idea of how unfortunate Anaheim has been, consider that Ryan Getzlaf has three goals. Does anyone even understand how ludicrous that is? This is a guy that does not have one single goal this year in five-on-five play but when he’s on the ice, the team is generating eight scoring chances per game. Getzlaf is a pure goal scorer and point producer. Chances are great he that he goes off in the second half.
Early in the year, the Ducks could not buy a goal but their luck has recently changed. Anaheim has scored three goals or more in six of their past seven games. They have outshot 14 of their last 15 opponents. They rank first in the NHL in shots against. The Ducks are a great possession team that has their top three lines rolling. Their goaltending is among the best in the league whether it’s John Gibson or Fredrick Andersen. The Ducks offense is as good as or better than any team in the NHL and their defense speaks for itself. We are going to continue to ride the Ducks as often as we can when taking back a price because they are that good.
Scott Rickenbach
Lakers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -10
The Lakers are off of a rare win as Kobe Bryant had a rare stellar performance. I don't expect a repeat of either on Thursday night. The Lakers, before sneaking out a tight home win over Minnesota, had lost 10 games in a row. Not only that, the Lakers had lost 9 of those 10 games by at least a dozen points. That means that, especially with the drop in this line down to a -10 for New Orleans, I like our chances here with the Pelicans. New Orleans is fired up and hungry after losing back to back games. Prior to these two defeats the Pelicans had won 5 of their past 6 games. The back to back losses came to Memphis and San Antonio. Tonight, instead of facing a solid team like the Grizzlies or a top notch team like the Spurs, the Pelicans will be able to feast on one of the worst teams in the league. The Lakers are 2-7 ATS this season as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Lakers are also 2-5 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Pelicans they are happy to be back home and New Orleans is also on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in the second game of back to backs this season.
Jack Jones
Utah -2.5
The Utah Utes come into this game with Oregon State playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 59-53 win over these same Beavers to start the streak.
Not only have the Utes been winning, they've been dominating. They have beaten Washington State (by 21) and Washington (by 5) on the road, as well as California (by 9) and Stanford (by 22) at home. Look for them to continue to roll tonight against the struggling Beavers.
Indeed, Oregon State is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The Beavers have losses by 18, 17, 17, 9 and 6 points during this stretch, so they've rarely even been competitive. They haven't had much luck against the Utes, either, going 0-4 in the last four meetings with all four losses by 6 points or more, and three by at least 10.
The Utes are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Utah is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 Thursday games. The Beavers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oregon State is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 conference games.
Brandon Lee
Pelicans -10.5
The Lakers are just 2-14 in their last 16 games and 10 of their last 11 defeats have come by more than the spread listed here. The big concern with a team facing LA is whether or not they will show up to play and we have every reason to expect a big effort here from the Pelicans. Not only will New Orleans be motivated after losing their last 2, but they will be out for revenge from a 91-95 loss on the road to the Lakers back on 1/12. Keep in mind that win came with Anthony Davis sidelined. In the 3 previous meetings the Pelicans won all 3 by at least 16 points.
Brandon Shively
Lakers vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 210
The Lakers are coming off a win on Tuesday night where they scored 119 points. That was only the second time in their last 13 games they have scored more than 98 points. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the Lakers scored 119 points and got the win as we had the Lakers, but my point is they can't do it two nights in a row. Kobe Bryant had 38 points, hitting seven three pointers. I watched the game and I think that took a lot out of Kobe. Most nights he doesn't have his legs underneath him but Tuesday night was a rare one when he did; at home I will add fighting off what would be a franchise 11 game losing streak. Tonight I see this as a letdown game of sorts and I can only see them scoring close to their season average of 96 ppg which is the worst in the Western Conference and their 41.3% shooting from the floor is the worst in the NBA.
For New Orleans they played last night against the Spurs. Playing on a back to back and with a bigger game against Cleveland on Saturday, I can't see them wanting to push the pace in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack in the NBA in terms of pace of play.
The UNDER is 3-1 the last four meetings including a 95-91 game last month when the Pelicans were on a back to back, the same as tonight and the total was set at 203.5, which gives us value with a higher number here. The UNDER is 7-3 this season when New Orleans is playing the second game in a back-to-back.
Some of the reason for this total being set so high is because New Orleans has gone over in their last ten games. Sooner or later, this over trend is going to hit a halt and I'm betting it is tonight.
Dave Price
Colorado +10
The Colorado Buffaloes should have no problem staying within 10 points of the Oregon Ducks tonight on the road. They already beat the Ducks 91-87 at home in this first meeting this season, and I expect the rematch to go down to the wire as well. The Buffaloes are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are 17-5 on the season with 4 of those 5 losses coming by 8 points or less. The Ducks are ripe for a letdown following back-to-back big road wins at Arizona and Arizona State. They also come in overvalued as 10-point favorites due to those two huge wins. Colorado is 6-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
Tony Karpinski
Raptors vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers +1
Unfortunately, Toronto lacks some quickness, which means they will have to try to make up for it by their rebounding. In particular, on the offensive side of the glass. Jonas Valanciunas has been corralling 3 offensive boards/game this season, but he alone, will not get the Raptors enough second chance points. This Toronto team is just not the better team and have struggled knocking down shots, they have proven it already. They have had issues getting the the looks at the basket. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall I'm back Portland here at home on Thursday night.
Harry Bondi
SOUTH FLORIDA +19 over Cincinnati
Way too many points for the Bearcats to be laying here today. In the first meeting between these teams back on Jan. 10, the Bulls more than held their own in a four-point loss as a 15-point dog. We see a similar squirmish here tonight, especially since South Florida is 10-1 ATS on this floor in the last 11 meetings and is 10-6 ATS as a dog this year, including 4-0 when catching 12 points or more. Bearcats are also in a bad scheduling spot as they are off a big win over UConn and have Memphis on deck. Take the generous points with the scrappy Bulls!
Chris Jordan
Minnesota is terrible.
That should about cover it.
I wish that's all I needed to say for your analysis on tonight's free play, as I really don't have any other thoughts on the Northwestern Wildcats, my complimentary winner over the Golden Gophers.
I mean, Minnesota is bad. It just lost at Indiana, and has now lost 11 in a row and 13 of its last 14. And while some might say it has been a bit more competitive, that lasts oh so long, until disappointment settles back in and you remind yourselves - you're terrible.
Now, if there were ever a time the Wildcats could use a victory, it's tonight against hapless Minnesota. Northwestern got through the nonconference season with a mere one loss, then opened conference play 3-2. Since then, the Wildcats have lost five straight - the last four of which came against Top 25 teams. This being a step down in class, I have to believe they're going to be raring to go for this game.
Lay the chalk.
1* NORTHWESTERN
Scott Delaney
Looking for my ninth-straight complimentary winner tonight, after hitting Wichita State against Southern Illinois on Wednesday. Tonight I'm siding with the Saint Mary's Gaels against the BYU Cougars.
My free play is out of the West Coast Conference, where I'm siding with the Saint Mary's Gaels plus the points on the road in Provo, Utah against the BYU Cougars. We have a critical match up of offensive powerhouse mid-majors, but the fact is, the coaches-poll ranked Gaels are the better side in this game.
While both teams are in the hunt for the regular season conference title, the more important thing with these teams are tournament bids. Saint Mary's is sitting atop the league, while BYU is in third. And I don't know if three teams from this conference is going to be dancing in March.
So as much as BYU needs the win, Saint Mary's can't afford the loss. The Gaels need this win, as the coaches poll doesn't hold as much weight as the AP poll, and a sweep this week could creep them into the real Top 25.
Also, remember that Gonzaga was favored to win this conference and BYU was supposed to finish second. So there is some pride with this one, and the Gaels will want to make a statement with a victory here.
2* SAINT MARY'S