Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Colorado at OREGON (-10)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Oregon Ducks are the clear favorite at this point, to win their first regular-season Pac 12 conference championship in 14 years. Good thing for them is, they have Dana Altman in charge, and they shouldn't lose any focus, knowing any team in the league can be dangerous, no matter where the teams play. Tonight the victim will be the Colorado Buffaloes, as the 16th-ranked Ducks will roll to a huge win and cover.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is my favorite intangible this time of the year - momentum. The Ducks have won seven of eight, they ended defending league champion Arizona's 49-game home winning streak last week, and they can take comfort in knowing their momentum will be boosted with five of their remaining nine games inside Matthew Knight Arena, where they've won 20 straight.
BOTTOM LINE is - Tonight the momentum will be fueled by revenge, since the Ducks were grounded on Jan. 17, when they went into Boulder and saw five Colorado players score in double figures en route to a 91-87 win. I know the Buffaloes' 6-3 start matches their best since joining the Pac-12 four years ago, but this is a bad spot for them, as Oregon won three of its past four at home against Colorado.
4* OREGON
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the NY Knicks. At the time of this writing, the Knicks are laying 4 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
After getting kicked in the teeth last night in Boston, Detroit comes home in hopes of rebounding against a struggling Knicks team that is trying to figure out whether or not they belong in the playoff race.
New York is currently 3 1/2 games behind Detroit for the final playoff spot in the east, but if they continue to play how they've been playing it's going to be 4 1/2 games after tonight.
The Knicks are not only getting beat, they're losing by double digits and can't seem to score like they're capable of... which plays right into Detroit's hands.
Take the Pistons by 9 as your free play of the day.
1* DETROIT
Brad Wilton
My free play for Thursday is the Blazers over the Raptors.
Seems like every time I look at the NBA schedule, Portland is playing at home!
Tonight is the last of a 7-game home stand for the Blazers who come into this meeting with Toronto having won each of their last 5 at the Moda Center straight up, and they are on a 4-1 spread run in those 5 wins.
I like the Blazers to close out this home stand with a win and cover over a Toronto team that is playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, and while the Raptors have only lost once in their last 13 games straight up, Toronto has failed 4 in a row against the spread, and they have not been able to figure out how to defeat the Trail Blazers.
Portland has won each of the last 4 series meetings, and 9 of the last 10 overall meetings against Toronto. The Blazers are also 6-1 against the spread the last 7 home meetings versus the Raptors.
In this near-pick contest, have to roll with the "home cooking". Take Portland.
3* PORTLAND
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Rockets as the road favorite over the Suns.
Houston snapped a 3-game losing streak on Tuesday with a solid 115-102 home win over Miami, and I expect another solid win tonight on the road against the back-sliding Suns.
Phoenix has lost their last 5 games, and 11 of their last 12 games overall, and the points haven't really helped matters for the Suns, as they stand at just 3-9 in their last dozen games contested.
This is the first meeting of the season between the teams, and while Phoenix did win the last meeting last season, the Rockets are still a money-turning 5-1 both straight up and against the spread the last 6 series meetings.
Cannot build a strong enough case for the host tonight. I say lay it with the Rockets, as they get healthy in the Valley of the Sun on Thursday night.
3* HOUSTON
Dr. Bob
Opinion - Oakland (-12½) over YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Oakland has one of the best players in the nation PG Kahlil Felder, who not only averaging 25.6 points per game but finds time to dish out 8.8 assists while also averaging 2.1 steals per game. Felder’s Grizzlies are rolling along with 4 consecutive wins and covers and I see no reason for that momentum to stop tonight given that Oakland is 22-4 ATS after a win the last two seasons and apply to a 95-27-3 ATS road favorite momentum situation (that angle applied to our easy winner on Xavier at DePaul on Saturday). It’s not likely that Oakland will look past this game given that Youngstown shocked the Grizzlies at home with a 100-98 win as a 17½ point underdog exactly a month ago today. Oakland is actually better away from home (18-5 ATS including 9-0 ATS recently) while Youngstown is just 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 lined home games. Youngstown has hosted 4 teams that rank as average or better nationally and the Penguins lost 3 of those 4 games by 16 points or more. My ratings favor Oakland by 11½ points but I expect the Grizzlies to play better than normal given the strong situation, home-road dichotomy of the two teams and the revenge motive. Unfortunately, the line on this game jumped from -11 to -12½, which knocked it out of Best Bet range. I’ll still lean with Oakland and I’d take Oakland in a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.
Opinion - L.A. Lakers (+10) over NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans is not as good without guards Eric Bledsoe and Tyreke Evans (listed as doubtful tonight) and the Pelicans’ apply to a negative 43-102-1 ATS home favorite situation that is based on their consecutive horrible defensive performances (allowed 56% shooting their last 2 games). My ratings only favor the Pels by 9 points so the line is more than fair, and New Orleans is just 3-9 ATS when favored by more than 2 points this season. I’ll lean with the Lakers plus the points based on the situation.
Bruce Marshall
Georgia State -7
Georgia State's recent slump (no wins last three or covers last five) has confounded Sun Belt observers, who rated the Panthers as a serious contender for a return trip to the Big Dance just a few weeks ago. But perhaps the sight of Texas State HC Danny "Cool McCool" Kaspar and his Bobcats will provide a spark after GSU has held TSU to 87 total points in the last two meetings. Including a 58-46 win at San Marcos Jan. 2, when the Bobcats were held to just 16 points in the first half and hit only 3 of 20 beyond the arc. Regional sources report the lengthy Panther perimeter is a bad matchup for TSU, as the Bobcats could get only seven points from their starting Gs in the earlier loss.