JR O'Donnell
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Play: North Carolina + 3
Just a season turning statement game here tonight from the Heels.... off a nice sweet Wvu win last night going to Virgina tech tonight and backing a nasty Nc Heels squad team here + the 3. Huge edges on the glass and in the paint are the key here for the Heels tonight. Close to a + 6 edge on the glass for the Heels & a chance to earn a quality win gives Jr all the mojo to pull the trigger on the visitor. We will look and get a monster game out of Ed Davis tonight as the Hokies will not have an answer in the paint. The Heels rank 25th in O % and with a perfect but suspect 10-0 home record for the Hokies will have public action tonight.
Insider Angles
A couple of slumping teams square off on Thursday night when the South Alabama Jaguars visit the New Orleans Privateers, and considering that both teams are playing equally bad right now, we do not feel that South Alabama should be such a decided road favorite here.
After all, the Jaguars are just 1-7 straight up in their last eight games, and the lone win was by just two points in a home victory over Troy. The seven losses by South Alabama during this streak have been by an average of -8.7 points, and prior to their seven-point overtime loss at Troy on Saturday, they had lost their previous two games by 23 and 11 points respectively. That is not the kind of current form you want in a road favorite.
Now granted, New Orleans is 1-6 straight up in their last seven games, but they still have a winning record at home this season of 6-3. In fact, only one of the six losses during this slump came at home, and that was by just one point vs. UL Monroe, so the recent record for the Privateers is deceptive.
New Orleans may also play with a chip on their collective shoulders here, as they have now lost nine straight meetings head-to-head vs. the Jaguars. However, the South Alabama team this year is weaker than past seasons, so this looks like a good spot for the Privateers to exorcise some demons.
Besides, New Orleans actually covered the last three encounters, and we look for them to take it one step farther here with an outright upset.
Pick: New Orleans +4.5
Sam Martin
Georgia Tech at Duke
Play: Georgia Tech
Too many points for the Blue Devils to be laying here against a good Yellow Jackets team. Duke is coming off that embarrassing loss against Georgetown, where they allowed the Hoyas to shoot 71% from the field. This line is a bit inflated as Joe Public will think Duke will come out firing tonight to make up for that performance, but Georgia Tech hasn?t lost by double-digits all year, and they know they can hang with this Duke team as they beat them outright by 4 points as a 7.5-point home dog a month ago. Take the points. Play on Georgia Tech.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5
The public has turned on the Tar Heels, and we are finally getting some good value with them as we find them in the underdog role for only the 4th time this season. Virginia Tech is a good home team, but the Hokies do not match up well with the athleticism of the Heels. We saw this is the season's first meeting when UNC won by 14 points. The Heels have had great success in the underdog role. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Hokies are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. We'll take the Tar Heels and the points tonight.
Vernon Croy
1* Take Indiana +12.5
This pick is actually going against one of my systems because everything lines up nicely for the Hoosiers to cover at home. The Boilermakers are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record and this is a perfect spot for a let down by them tonight because their next opponent is Michigan State. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and they have shot 37.4% from behind the arc at home this season. Purdue has covered the spread just 3 times in their last 11 road games when they are favored and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against a conference opponent. Grab the points with Indiana Thursday night.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Purdue @ Indiana
PICK: Indiana +12.5
Indiana isn’t nearly as talented this year as they have been in years past. However, they rarely get blown out and they remain competitive in big games – especially in their Big Ten conference games. This is a huge rivalry and this situation favors the big home dog. "Both of us have a lot of in-state kids and they know what is on the line here and what they're playing for.” Says Purdue head coach Matt Painter, “Every game we play is important, but there's just always a little more emotion when Purdue plays Indiana." Throw out the records tonight with home court advantage playing a huge role. Go with the Hoosiers to get the cover tonight.
The Boilermakers have cooled off considerably since beginning Big Ten conference play. They are 2-2 in Big Ten road games, losing to Wisconsin and Northwestern and beating Illinois by 6 and Iowa by 11. They’ve lost eight straight at Indiana. Matt Painter is just 1-7 lifetime as a player & coach when playing at Indiana (lone win was a 2-point victory in overtime in Painter’s freshmen year as a player). Many of the Purdue players say it’s the most difficult place to play because it’s the loudest arena that they’ve ever played in.
Some of Purdue's best players and teams lost there. Gene Keady, Purdue's legendary former coach, had 10 ranked teams lose there. Glenn Robinson was 0-2. Cuonzo Martin was 0-4. Several four-year classes since the late 1970s came and went without winning.No one who has played for Purdue since 2000 has won at IU. The Boilermakers' last victory there was in 1999.
This may be a huge rivalry game, but some of Purdue’s focus will be on their even BIGGER game against the Big Ten leading Michigan State Spartans in their next game. Purdue is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record (meaning they aren’t good as a large favorite). Indiana is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Boilermakers. Take Indiana tonight.
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Notre Dame Fightin' Irish to roll the Cincy Bearcats. Does 13-2 mean anything to you? What about 1-5? If you combine those numbers you get an 18-3 trend in our favor. The Irish have dropped just two games at home all season... to Syracuse and a fluky game against Loyola Marymount. Aside from that, Notre Dame has beaten the likes of West Virginia, DePaul, UCLA, and Providence at home. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has just one road win all season in six chances (@ Rutgers). The Bearcats actually have a one-game lead in the Big East over Notre Dame, but the two teams haven't quite played the same level of competition in conference play. When all is said and done, Notre Dame will finish ahead of Cincinnati in the Big East because I believe they are the better, more talented team. Cincy is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big East foes and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. This one has double-digit win written all over it. I'm taking Notre Dame minus the small number.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Dominic Fazzini
California at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA +2'
Brought home another winner Wednesday with my complimentary selection as the Thunder got the job done in New Orleans. That victory pushed my record to 66-46-4 over the past 116 days, and you better believe I've got another winner in my today!
A lot of people are writing off Southern Cal entirely just because it's not allowed to compete in the postseason, but I don't see things that way.
Yes, the Trojans have lost two straight games and three of their last four, but I'm betting on them to step up tonight and show some pride against California, which is tied for first in the Pac-10.
USC's leading scorer, guard Dwight Lewis (13.7 ppg), will become the Trojans' all-team leader in games played tonight, and you know he doesn't want to remember the night as a losing one. And while USC has underachieved a bit this season at 12-9, it still has a talented roster that can step up and give most teams fits, especially if point guard Mike Gerrity is on his game.
The Trojans have good balance on offense, and they are one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing just 56 ppg on 37.8 percent shooting.
USC is on ATS streaks of 10-4 in the Pac-10, 35-17 as an underdog and 4-0 as a home underdog. And the Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Trojans. Take USC to cover the points tonight.
3♦ USC
Bobby Maxwell
Maryland at FLORIDA ST. -2
Perfect Wednesday with FREE plays as I delivered two college hoops winners with UNLV and Colorado to improve my comp record to 43-14-1 with my last 58. Tonight I have another college winner as I lay the small chalk with Florida State hosting Maryland.
Everyone got a little too excited about Maryland a little too quickly. The Terps have a nice team, but they aren’t going to win the ACC and just because they had won four straight did now mean they were running the table in this elite conference.
Tonight, Maryland goes to Florida State, who beat Boston College 61-57 in Tallahassee on Saturday, covering as a one-point underdog. The Seminoles are 10-1 at home this season and the home team has dominated this rivalry, winning nine straight when these two teams get together. The host has cashed in seven of nine, including a 4-1 streak by Florida State at the Tucker Center.
The Terps lost 62-53 at Clemson on Sunday, failing to cash as a 3 ½-point underdog. They were held to a season-low in points scored and had less than 70 for just the second time this season. This team is starting to get a big dose of reality as the real ACC season kicks in.
Look for Florida State and its crowd to be rocking tonight. Lay the chalk with the Seminoles at home and look for a 10-point win.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE
Michael Cannon
Georgia Tech +12' at DUKE
I am now 73-60-3 with my last 136 free plays.
Take the points with Georgia Tech on the road over Duke.
I realize Cameron Indoor is arguably the hardest venue to play in college hoops. But this Georgia Tech team is for real and this line is inflated in my opinion because Duke is playing at home.
The Yellow Jackets have won four of their last five games, going 4-0 ATS in the lined contests. They are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this year.
Duke was smashed on the road last Saturday by Georgetown, 89-77 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. But I’m sure the Blue Devils will bounce back here at home, but you still have to wonder about their collective psyche after being dominated so thoroughly.
Georgia Tech upset Duke 71-67 as a seven-point home dog on Jan. 9, which ended a four-game losing streak in the rivalry. The Yellow Jackets are on ATS runs of 8-2 on the road, 5-1 on Thursday, 11-4 after a SU win and 8-2 when coming off a win of more than 20 points.
Duke has failed to cover in five of its last seven after a SU loss.
Take the points with Georgia Tech as they stay within the number.
3♦ GEORGIA TECH
Karl Garrett
Purdue -9 at INDIANA
Looks like Purdue has shaken off their slump, as they have followed their 3 loss slide with 4 straight wins, and did just cover the double-digit impost in their win over Penn State.
G-Man says to lay it tonight at Indiana, as the Hoosiers continue to blow hot-and-cold these days, losing 2 in a row, and 5 of their last 7 straight up. Indy has managed a 4-3 spread mark over those 7 games, but it seems unlikely they are going to hold the fort down for a full 40 minutes against a Purdue team that has bested them by double-digits in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
At 18-3, the Boilermakers are inside the Top-10 once again for the season, and they are clearly the better of the 2 units on the floor this Thursday evening.
It may take a while to get on top of this road impost, but I am confident that in the end the Boilers will not only get the win, but get the cover as well.
Go with Purdue.
1♦ PURDUE
Drew Gordon
Miami +9' at CLEVELAND
52-33-3 roll L87 Free Plays (20-10 L30)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Heat/Cavaliers match up.
This is an interesting match up for a variety of reasons, but let's start with the public perception. Obviously, Cleveland is rolling right now, winners of 9 in a row (6-3 ATS), so you can throw ANY value you had with Lebron and company out the window. Despite their run, bettors need to realize the Cavs have NOT been a good bet at home this season, going 10-13 ATS, and now with their run I doubt Vegas is going to make it any easier to bet them in this spot.
On the flip side, its no secret the Heat have struggled with inconsistency AND have not played well in the tail-end of a back-to-back (3-6 ATS). However, what bettors are missing is the rivalry between these two teams, and specifically Lebron versus Wade. Need proof? Check out their last meeting - a razor close 92-91 Cavaliers road win last week!
Speaking of their last meeting, while both stars did their usual damage, I was impressed with the Heat's defense on Lebron, holding him to 9 of 23 shooting. He jacked up NINE 3-pointers, which immediately lets the defense off the hook, and Richardson (among others) did as rock-solid a job as you can do against the best player in the NBA.
That brings me to my final point: These two teams match up particularly well when Mo Williams is NOT in the lineup. When Williams plays, the Cavs have too many weapons for Miami to defend, but with Gibson and Parkers starting, the Heat can keep this game within the number. In the end, the Heat reward their backers with a solid cover, as Wade goes off against his friend and rival.
Small play on Miami plus the points over Cleveland in this NBA match up.
1♦ MIAMI
Stephen Nover
Miami at CLEVELAND -10
The Cavalirs are riding a season-high nine-game winning streak. Thanks to a 20-3 home mark, they own the best record in the NBA.
LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and backup point guard Daniel Gibson are playing at high levels allowing the Cavaliers to overcome injuries to Mo Williams and Delonte West.
Miami has been up and down all season. The Heat lost at the Celtics last night. Miami is 1-5 straightup and against the spread in the second of back-to-back games since Dec. 31.
This marks Miami's fifth away contest in its last six games so there will be a fatigue factor. The Heat have been playing short-handed missing Mario Chalmers. This is Miami's third game in four nights.
This is the Cavaliers' third of seven consecutive games at Quicken Loan Arena, their longest homestand in 15 years.
The Cavaliers already have defeated the Heat twice this season, with both victories occurring in Miami.
The question is how much motivation will the Cavaliers have? I believe a lot. They try never to let their home fans down. This matchup is being nationally televised on TNT and James enjoys a friendly, but fierce rivalry with his fellow superstar buddy Dwayne Wade.
2♦ CAVALIERS
Brett Atkins
Absolutely easy call on the Jazz Wednesday night as they scored us a free winner when they took care of the Blazers in Utah. Tonight I'm on the college hardwood, laying the chalk with Cal as the Golden Bears visit USC.
Ever since getting the news that they were banned from any postseason action, USC has gone down hill and you can see it in their body language. Meanwhile, Cal has won five of its last seven. I’ll lay the small chalk with the Golden Bears in this one.
The Trojans have lost five of seven overall and failed to cash in three of their last four. Over the weekend in Arizona they averaged just 51 points a game in ugly losses at Oregon State and Oregon. Go back a little further and you’ll see these guys are only putting up 63.2 points a game over their last five games.
Cal has performed identically in each of its last two Pac-10 road trips, winning the first game and then dropping the weekend game. They went to Washington State and won before losing at Washington and this past trip they upset Arizona State 78-70 as a four-point ‘dog before losing in Arizona 76-72 as a two-point favorite.
The trip of Jerome Randle, Theo Robertson and Patrick Christopher make for a solid three scorers on the court for the Golden Bears. They put up 57 points at Arizona on Sunday, including 27 from Robertson.
USC is just 2-5-1 ATS at home against teams with a losing records while Cal is 9-3-1 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a non-cover. In this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the favorite cashing in seven of 10. Lay the small chalk and play the Golden Bears.
3♦ CAL
Jay McNeil
Another winner for the kid with Wednesday's free play as UNLV kicked the crap out of Wyoming in Laramie, giving me six wins in my last seven plays! And I've got another college hoops winner for you today.
Assembly Hall has not been a welcome place to Purdue. The Boilermakers have lost eight straight times there by an average of 13.7 ppg, and haven't won at Indiana since 1999.
The Hoosiers aren't close to being the power they used to be, but they're more competitive than they were last season, are tough at home and should give rival Purdue a good battle tonight.
Indiana is on ATS streaks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 as an underdog and 4-1 as a home 'dog, while the Boilermakers are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-5 as a favorite, 4-9 on the road and 3-8 as a road favorite. And Purdue also is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Bloomington. Take the Hoosiers to keep things close and cover the points tonight.
2♦ INDIANA