Charley Sutton
Bad call last night as Kansas gets the best from Colorado and needs overtime just to get the SU win. I’m moving past that non-cover and I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Heat on the road at the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Heat come into this game installed as about a 9 1/2 point underdog, depending on where you’re playing this.
Consider that in the last four meetings between these two, even though Cleveland has won all 4 SU, the Cavs have only won by an average of 6.2 points per game.
Keep in mind, also, in this series the underdog has gone 5-2 ATS their last 7 meetings and the road team has cashed in 6 of their last 8 matchups.
Tonight, the road underdog will cash in again as the Heat keep this one close.
3 ♦ HEAT
Joel Tyson
Even though Stanford dumped UCLA by double-digits in Palo Alto earlier this season, I can't back the Cardinal on the road on Thursday.
Stanford is winless in their 8 true road games this year, and just 3-7 overall away from The Farm.
UCLA sports a 6-3 spread mark at home this year, and they had won the previous 6 series meetings prior to their January setback at Stanford, going 4-1-1 against the spread.
The Bruins have gotten a little traction here on the season as well, winning and covering 3 of their last 4 games.
Go with UCLA.
4♦ UCLA
Chuck O'Brien
Take Indiana plus the points against Purdue in Big Ten hoops action on Thursday.
With the exception of an impossible-to-explain 15-point loss to Iowa a couple of Sundays ago, Indiana has been very respectable on its home court against Big Ten opponents this season. The Hoosiers upset Michigan and Minnesota as a sizeable underdog, and got within the number in a six-point loss to Illinois as a 6½-point home underdog.
That means Indiana 3-0 ATS as a underdog in Big Ten home games (the Hoosiers were laying 5½ in the loss to Iowa). Overall, they come into this contest 6-3 ATS roll, including Saturday’s competitive two-point road loss at Illinois as a 12½-point underdog.
Obviously, Purdue (ranked 8th in the country this week) is the most talented conference team to come into Assembly Hall so far. But the Boilermakers haven’t been covering pointspreads lately (2-5 ATS last seven, all within the Big Ten and all as a favorite; 4-9 ATS last 13 on the road; 1-9 ATS last 10 against opponents that have a losing record). Also, they’re in a legit look-ahead spot here, with a game at No. 5 Michigan State just 48 hours away.
The Hoosiers have had solid pointspread success against Purdue lately, too, cashing in each of the last two meetings, four of the last five and six of the last eight (winning six of those games SU). And the last time the Boilermakers went to Assembly Hall and won was 1999 – they’ve lost eight in a row on the Hoosiers floor since then.
4♦ INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Nailed my third straight freebie winner on Wednesday, as UNLV hammered Wyoming. For Thursday, I’ll stay on the college hardwood and back Tennessee minus the points at LSU, a rare 7♦ selection.
I know the Vols have come back to earth a little bit since that seven-game winning streak that included a victory over top-ranked Kansas (they’ve lost two of their last three, including a scant one-point home win over Florida on Sunday as an 8½-point chalk). But if ever there was a get-healthy game for Tennessee, this one at LSU qualifies. That’s because the Tigers are awful. They’ve lost all seven of their SEC games, and their only spread-cover in conference play came as a 10-point underdog in a nine-point loss at South Carolina.
LSU has played three conference home games and gone 0-3 ATS, losing to Alabama 66-49 as a two-point favorite, Auburn 84-80 as a 3½-point favorite and Ole Miss 73-63 as a five-point underdog. The Tigers are one of the worst spread-covering teams in the country, too, going 4-13 ATS in their 17 lined games, including 2-7 ATS at home.
Yes, the Tigers have had success against Tennessee in recent years, winning three of the last five meetings and cashing in all five. But those LSU teams actually had some talent; this year’s squad is joke. And by joke I mean that if you go back to the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Tigers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games (and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 lined contests). Against teams from power conferences, LSU is 0-12 SU and 1-12 ATS. That says it all right there. Lay the chalk.
7♦ TENNESSEE
King Creole
Arizona +10 vs Washington
From the SAME System which went 2-0 ATS last night… King Creole, Speedee and his Dawg Pound Hotline pals will go to the well one more time. It also doesn't hurt that the WILDCATS seem to have the Huskies number… going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings… including a 87-70 win EARLIER this season (and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings).
22-8-2 ATS this season: All Conference Underdogs playing off bB SU and ATS win (ARIZONA)… with the last win as an Underdog. And when these value underdogs are taking on an opponent that's also playing off BB SU wins (like the Huskies), the numbers improve to a PERFECT 7-0-1 ATS.
Washington just blew out Washington State in their last game, winning by a score of 92-64.
0-4 ATS this season: All DOUBLE-GOGIT conference favs (Check line) playing off a SU conference home win of 25 or more points (Huskies).
2-16-2 ATS this season: All Conference home favorites playing off a SU Conference home win in which they scored 90 > points (Huskies).
6-1 ATS this season: All Conference road teams playing off a SU home UNDERDOG win (ARIZONA)… vs any opponent off a DD SU win (Huskies).
In the PAC 10 Conference SPECIFICALLY, we note that…
Double-Digit UNDERDOGS playing off BB SU wins (ARIZONA) have gone 11-2 ATS in the last 5 years vs any opponent (Huskies) also off a SU win (also 8-1 ATS last 3 seasons).
Frank Jordan
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Miami Heat +9.5
These two teams just played back on January 25th with Wade leading the Heat with 32 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists but had just two points in the second half as LeBron's 32 points 9 rebounds and 4 assists were enough for the Cavs to win 92-91. Look for Wade to return the favor as the Heat win in Cleveland. Play Miami
John Ryan
Georgia Tech vs. Duke
Play: Duke -12.5
3* graded play on Duke as they take on Georgia Tech set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Duke will win this game by 14 or more points. This game shapes up just like last night’s 10* Titan winner on West VA. I know the Duke fans will certainly have more dignity and respect for the players in this game then the disgrace shown in West Va last night. Duke allowed an incredible 71% shooting in their 89-77 loss at Georgetown. This actually places them into a solid role for tonight. It is obvious that Coach Krzyzekski makes the necessary changes and motivates his players very well after a horrendous defensive performance. This year they are 2-0 ATS in games following a game where they allowed 50% or worse shooting. They covered each game by 10 ad 11 points and we expect the same result tonight. Duke is also in good shape facing a team like GT. They are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 ATS for 83% winners since 2004. Play on home teams as a favorite or pick off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. Take Duke.
Black Widow
1* on Florida +2.5
Florida should not be catching points against Alabama Thursday. The Gators had won 4 straight before a tough 1-point loss at Tennessee last time out, so they'll be hungry to get back on the floor after a close loss like that. Alabama has lost 4 of their last 6, including a home loss to Tennessee. Alabama is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games since 1997. They are playing good defense, but they don't have the offensive firepower to match the Gators who will run them out of the gym tonight. Alabama has scored 62 or less points in 5 straight games, while Florida has scored 71 or more in 5 of their last 7. Take Florida and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Portland +8.5
I know Nik Raivio might be out tonight, but I still think Gonzaga is being overvalued here. In fact, Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by just 2.7 points on average. Portland played the Bulldogs to a 3-point game at home earlier this season so it will be both confident and hungry tonight. Plus, Portland is 16-5 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Georgia Tech vs. Duke
Play: Duke -12.
Duke has had some difficulties on the road this season, but they remain one of the strongest home teams in the nation. The Blue Devils are 12-0 on their home court with an 8-3 record against the spread in those games. Duke scores just under 90 points per game offensively at home while their defense has held visiting teams to just 61 points per game.
Georgia Tech enters tonight's game at 5-4 on the road this season. It's hard to imagine the Yellow Jackets keeping up with Duke in this contest. Scoring 73.9 points per game on the road is nothing to be ashamed of, but it's a far cry from the kind of offensive output the Blue Devils have shown this year. Duke has dominated this series outside of a surprising 4-point loss at Georgia Tech in early January, but the Blue Devils get their revenge with a big win behind one of the best home crowds in the nation.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Notre Dame -3
In recent years, Notre Dame has been one of the best home teams in the country. That has continued to be the case this year with the Irish having won 13 of 15 home games. Off back-to-back road losses, the Irish will be happy to get back on their home floor tonight. Cincy has struggled on the road, having lost their last 3 road games in conference play SU & ATS. Cincy did edge Notre Dame out by two points at home earlier this season, but that should only add to the motivation of the Irish tonight. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Big East, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take the Irish.
Info Plays
3* on Notre Dame -3
Reasons why Notre Dame covers
1.) The Fighting Irish still have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. This is a very generous spread as we only have to lay 3 points on the Irish to beat Cincinnati at home. Notre Dame is 13-2 at home this season while Cincinnati is just 3-6 on the road.
2.) Cincinnati beat Notre Dame by a final of 60-58 at home earlier this season. So look for the Irish to be the more motivated team here with revenge in mind. Bet Notre Dame at home.
O.C. Dooley
Long Beach State -5.5
Amazingly Long Beach State just became the first team in the history of the Big West Conference to have FIVE different players walk away with a “player of the week” honor. For those who stay up late and watch on ESPNU keep an eye on Eugene Phillips who in a pair of Long Beach triumphs last week averaged 19 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. What has most caught my attention regarding Long Beach is their “non” conference strength of schedule which has seen them face a host of opponents (Notre Dame, West Virginia, Clemson, Texas, Kentucky, Duke) from “power” leagues. Long Beach carries a solid 6-1 HOME record where the defense has allowed just 62 points per contest which just happens to be a full ELEVEN points below their season average. Long Beach State who has veteran head coach Dan Monson leading the show are an excellent 13-4 ATS the past two seasons when “revenging” a loss against an opponent
John Martin
1 Unit on San Antonio Spurs -2
Portland just isn't the same team this time of year with all the injuries they've been dealt. They lost Joel Pryzbilla and Greg Oden for the season, and Brandon Roy remains sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Blazers have lost 4 of their last 6 games, and they aren't getting it done on the defensive end any more. Portland has allowed 104 or more points in 4 of their last 5 contests. The Spurs did lose at home to the Blazers in their last meeting on December 23rd of this season. But that's a nice factor in our favor as San Antonio is 11-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the Spurs as the favorite.
Wunderdog
Cal Poly Slo vs. UC Davis
Play: Cal Poly Slo +6
Both of these teams enter tonight's game with identical 8-12 marks on the season. The Aggies have dropped four of their last six, escaping a fifth loss with a narrow 2-point win at home vs. UC Irvine. The story has been a bit different for Cal-Poly who opened the season with five straight losses, but have been an above .500 team since. They also got the better of the Aggies at home along the way. The Mustangs have failed to cover just one of their last nine vs. a team with a losing record, while Cal Davis has cashed just one of their last five as home chalk. The road team has taken the money in each of the last four, so I'll go with Cal-Poly here.