Matt Fargo
Iowa vs. Northwestern
Play: Iowa +7
Northwestern is coming off a big road win on Sunday at rival Illinois and now it is being asked to lay a big number against a team that possesses a better conference record. The Wildcats are now 4-6 in the Big Ten following two straight wins but getting that third straight victory will be a challenge as they have not won three straight games in the conference since the end of the 2008-09 season. Northwestern is 9-3 at home this season but just 3-2 in the conference.
The Hawkeyes have also won two straight and while both of those came at home, this is a much improved team from last season. Iowa won only four Big Ten games all of last season and a win here can put it into a tie for fifth place in the conference. Iowa has lost its last three road games in the Big Ten but those losses came against top teams in Purdue, Indiana and Michigan St. It does possess a quality road win at Wisconsin so winning on the road is certainly a possibility here.
Iowa will have a tough matchup on defense as the Wildcats employ the Princeton-style offense and the Hawkeyes must match up with Northwestern’s multiple three-point shooters and defend the backdoor plays. They defend the three-point shot well including allowing just 31.4 percent on the road. They should have a good gameplan in place after the Wildcats lit them up for 26 three-points in the two meetings last season. After allowing 103 points at Indiana, Iowa has allowed just 123 points the last two games.
As far as power ratings go, there is not a lot separating these two teams so a highly competitive game should be expected. The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS over the last 11 meetings in this series and this season the Hawkeyes are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of seven points or less. Meanwhile, Northwestern is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win and it is also 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
Steve Janus
NC State -4
NC State is right in the thick of things in the ACC with a 6-3 conference record. They are just a game back of Duke, UNC, and Florida State. The Yellow Jackets are a miserable 2-7 in conference action, but one of those victories was an upset win at NC State earlier this season. Georgia Tech beat the Wolfpack 82-71 as a 10-point underdog.
I wouldn't read too much into that win. The Yellow Jackets would follow up that game with six straight losses before finally beating Boston College 51-47 at home. Not all that impressive considering Georgia Tech was favored by 9.5-points. In the Yellow Jackets two previous home games they lost by 15-points to Miami and 32-points to Virginia. Georgia Tech is just 4-6 SU at home and only 1-5 ATS at home.
NC State is a respectable 5-3 SU and ATS on the road, but what really has me liking the Wolfpack is the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. BET NC STATE!
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns -3.5
The Phoenix Suns are catching fire of late. I'll gladly back them as a small 3.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets tonight. Steve Nash has carried the Suns to three straight wins, including two on the road against Atlanta and Milwaukee.
Houston is having a solid year at 15-11 this season. But the Rockets are way overvalued tonight due to back-to-back impressive road wins at Denver and at Portland. This sets them up for a big letdown spot tonight. Houston will also be tired as this is the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
Phoenix has won seven of their last nine meetings with Houston in this series. The Rockets are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Suns, so this has clearly been an unfavorable match-up for them. Phoenix has won four straight home meetings over Houston.
The Rockets are likely going to be without starting PG Kyle Lowry (arm) after he suffered an injury last night against Houston. Lowry is a huge part of this team, averaging 14.8 points, 7.9 assists and 5.8 rebounds. The Rockets are 5-8 on the road this season, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Bet Phoenix Thursday.
Ben Burns
Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders
PICK: Montreal Canadiens
My last free play resulted in a winner with Montreal on Tuesday. Listed as home underdogs, the Canadiens "upset" Pittsburgh. That was the second straight victory for the Canadiens. Prior to that, I'd backed them in their 3-0 victory over the Jets. While the Habs are now taking to the road, I feel that they've got an excellent shot at making it three in a row.
We'll be getting a great price on the Canadiens, based on the fact that this game is being played at Long Island. However, home ice isn't necessarily an advantage for these teams.
Surprisingly, the Isles have now won three straight on the road. They've lost back to back home games though. In fact, they're now one of the few teams with a record which is worse (vs. the moneyline) at home than it is on the road. The Isles are 11-16 (11-11-5) at home and 11-14 (11-11-3) on the road.
Note that the Isles did win 1-0 in a shootout on Monday, getting a great effort from their goalie. However, they were dominated in that game, getting outshot by a 45-18 margin.
Despite winning back to back home games, the Canadiens are also one of the other teams which has a better record on the road. They're 10-15 on the road but 11-18 at home.
Monday's win against Pittsburgh came in a shootout, which may well have been just what the doctor ordered for the Habs. That was just the Canadiens' second win in nine shootouts and could easily help to build some positive momentum.
Goalie Carey Price, who is starting to play much better, had this to say of the win over Pittsburgh: "We blew two leads but at the end of the day I thought we kept a really positive attitude on the bench..."
Tomas Plekanec, who scored the eventual winner in the shootout, had this to say of Price: "Carey was great again tonight. He gave us a chance to stay in the game and he was great again in the shootout."
Both teams are starting to climb in the standings. Both are fighting to get back in the playoff race. Both have "hot" goalies, entering this game. The Canadiens are 13-6 the last 19 meetings in the series though and they've won six of their last nine trips to Long Island. The Canadiens also played much better than the Isles on Monday. Consider Montreal.
Scott Rickenbach
Tennessee State @ Murray State
PICK: Tennessee State +12
The Murray State Racers are the mid-major darling of the college basketball world, sitting seventh in the national polls with a perfect 23-0 record. However, national attention and an undefeated season are never good for boosting a program’s betting value. The Racers are just 8-8-2 ATS on the year and haven’t covered a spread since Jan. 7, posting a dismal 0-6-1 ATS record in the seven games since. Murray State is a talented team with great depth and veteran leadership, but with the eyes of the public watching their run to a perfect season any betting value with the Racers walked out the door before the calendar turned to 2012. Tennessee State hasn’t been the greatest bet this season, but its picked up the payouts in recent outings, winning five in a row and posting a 4-1 ATS record in that span. Robert Covington is carrying the team during this stretch, averaging nearly 18 points per game on the season. The 6-foot-9 forward is a tough matchup with the ability to play with his back to the basket or knock down the perimeter jumper. Reserve forward Kellen Thornton gives the Tigers some teeth off the bench. The 6-foot-7 swingman has been the spark during this winning streak, averaging over 14 points in those five games after scoring in double figures just six times through the first 19 games of the schedule. While the Races may escape Thursday’s contest with their perfect record intact, Murray State will have to scratch and claw for every points against a Tennessee State program nipping at their heels in the Ohio Valley Conference. Consider a small play on the Tennessee State plus the big points Thursday night.
Rob Veno
Rider at Canisius
Play: Rider -5.5
The wheels haven’t just come off for Canisius the past three weeks, they’ve exploded. Can’t see the Golden Griffins rising up from underneath the rubble of this current 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS streak anytime soon. Since January 15th, Canisius has not come with 11 points of an opponent including this Rider team which destroyed them 89-65 a little over two weeks ago. The 81.4 points per game allowed by Canisius during this span has become very problematic and won’t serve them well at all tonight versus a Rider offense that loves to push pace and has averaged 76.6 ppg since the turn of the calendar year. Head coach Tommy Dempsey’s bunch has also turned in a solid 7-3-1 ATS run over that 11-game stretch. In the earlier meeting, Canisius was held to 34.9% from the field and were crushed on the boards 50-28. That game began a defensive surge by the Broncs who have held five straight teams to 43% shooting or less. Home floor has meant next to nothing for Canisius which is 2-7 ATS in Buffalo and I don’t expect it to mean anything in this contest either.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa +7
Iowa will be lacking no motivation this evening as it looks to snap a 3-game slide in its series with Northwestern. It played the Wildcats to a 3-point game on the road last year, and I like its chances of giving them a game again. The Hawkeyes have quietly been a quality investment at 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. The Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oregon +1
Motivated by a 1-point loss at Colorado, and further fueled by a 16-point loss at Washington in the season's first meeting, expect Oregon to bounce back strong at home tonight.
The Ducks defeated Washington by 5 points in last year's home meeting, and they'll have an excellent opportunity to take down the Huskies again here.
Washington is just 3-5 when playing away from home this season and two of those wins came against Utah and Arizona State, who are a combined 12-34 on the season. It is also worth noting that those wins came by just 4 and 6 points respectively. The Huskies clearly aren't the same team on the road.
Oregon is a rock solid 11-3 at home this season and has covered the number in 5 of its last 7 home games in this series. It's also worth mentioning that the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
Oregon is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, provided that foe scored 75 points or more in the previous meeting. We'll take the Ducks in this revenge spot.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Atlantic -1.5
Many public bettors will look at this line and jump all over Denver. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Denver is 17-7 on the season while Florida Atlantic is 9-14. The problem with Denver is that they've done most of their damage at home, while they are just 6-5 on the road. FAU has played a brutal schedule this season with 16 road games compared to 7 home games. The Owls have gone a respectable 4-3 at home this season and they are favored for a reason tonight. Denver is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Pioneers are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Florida Atlantic and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana -6
Indiana is 13-1 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 21.0 points. It is 7-2 ATS in the 9 lined home games its played. It hasn't forgotten about the 72-48 beatdown it was handed by Illinois the last time these two met, and I expect it to have its revenge here. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.
Larry Ness
South Alabama -4
The South Alabama plays host to Arkansas State in a Sun Belt Conference contest tonight at the Mitchell Center. The Jaguars are 12-10 overall and struggling with a 4-7 record in the Sun Belt East. As for the Red Wolves, they are 10-15 overall and 4-6 in the West. Arkansas St misses guard Trey Finn (9.9-5.5) who is suffering from a knee injury and hasn't played in a game since January 26th. The team has depth on the perimeter but only Hooten (11.4) is much of a player. Up front, the 6-8 Kirkland (12.0-6.2) and the 6-7 Peterson (9.5-8.0) form a solid duo but there's no depth. South Alabama lost guard Roberson (9.9) early on (after just eight games), so Goldstein (10.6) has had some time to adjust to 6-5 freshman Ammons (7.5-5.7) and St Mary's transfer Anderson (5.5-3.3 APG). The 6-6 Rubit (14.7-9.0), the 6-7 Lundy (9.0-6.5) and the 6-6 Carter (6.5-5.1) form a decent inside trio for the Jags. South Alabama is no bargain but Arkansas St is 7-13 ATS in all games TY and is 2-10 SU on the road, including 1-3 in Sun Belt play (lone win at 2-22 La-Monroe!). Take the home team.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
YOUNGSTOWN STATE PK over Butler: The Bulldogs are far removed from the last two years where they ended up in the NCAA Title game both years as they come in tied for 5th in the league with a 7-6 mark, while overall they have posted a 13-12 record. Not very impressive for this team. The Bulldogs have struggled of late as they have won just 1 of their last 4 games and an offense that has not been very good overall (63.2), has been even worse in the last 4 games as they have averaged just 58.8 ppg over that stretch. Overall shooting has been a problem for the Bulldogs this year as they are 313th in FG% (40.0%), 336th in 3pt shooting (28.1 %) and 313th in FT shooting (63.5%). This is a team with some offensive problems. The beyond the arc numbers are very disturbing to them, and it should play a big role in this one. Butler is one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the nation as they hit just 28.1 % of their long range shots overall, including just 26.9% in division 1 play and just 26.5% on the road. Now in contrast the penguins are 5th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game (9.1) and 27th in 3-pt % (38.8 %). Overall Youngstown State has averaged 67.1 ppg, while in their last 5 games they have averaged 69 ppg on 46.2% shooting overall and 39.5% shooting form long range. Defensively the overall numbers look pretty even, but Butler has allowed 66.1 ppg on the road, while the Penguins have allowed just 57.4 ppg at home. Butler is having problems scoring right now and it will not get better here where the penguins have been very stingy. Youngstown State has the edge at both ends of the floor, they are playing better ball right now and they are at home in a pick'em game. Ill roll with the Penguins in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Oregon State/ Washington State Under 150.5: The Last time these teams met their was 157 points scored in the game, but i feel this time will be different. In each of OSU's last 6 games, just one of those games posted more than tonight's total, with an average of 145.5 ppg being scored in that stretch. The Beavers do score a ton of points at home (86 ppg) and Washington State has allowed 73.4 ppg on the road, But the Cougars defense has been playing better of late as they have allowed just 69.4 ppg in their last 5 games and I feel that they can hold OSU to the low to mid 70's at best here. Washington state will look to slow the game down, especially when they head out on the road, where their Pac-12 road games have averaged 135.4 ppg. During their pre-Pac-12 schedule the Cougars where scoring a ton on the road, but in their 5 conference road games they have averaged just 62.6 ppg. OSU comes in having allowed 70.7 ppg at home overall and 95.8 ppg in their Pac-12 home games, but some of those numbers are a bit skewered thanks to the 4 OT game vs Stanford. Still this is not a great defense, but they have the ability to hold this weak Wazzu offense, that will not run, below 70 points in this one. I expect a game with no more than 145 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- OREGON ST is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is 24-7 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% since 1997.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Colorado +7 over ARIZONA:(Added) Google News Play. The Buffs are team that is playing with a lot of confidence right now and their are within grasp of their first conference title of any kind since 1968-69. The Buffs have done this year with great defensive play as they have allowed just 62.6 points per game and limiting their opponents to a 39.8 shooting percentage, while in the Pac 10 they have allowed just 61.6 ppg on 39% shooting (2nd in Pac-12). The defense is predicated on the ability to crash the boards. As a team Colorado brings down 37.4 rebounds per game which is the second best mark in the conference. Arizona has also played very good defense in the Pac-12 as they have allowed just 59.6 ppg in conference play, so I would say the defenses are about even. I would also have to say that the offenses are even as well, as Colorado comes in averaging 70.2 ppg overall, while Arizona has averaged 69.6 ppg. Pretty much the stats are even in this one and on a Neutral floor i would have to say this game would be a PK. There is no way that the Cats home court edge is 7 points with two evenly matched teams on the court. Colorado has been the more consistent team this year and I expect them to walk out with the outright upset. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. This play is 26-5 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Virginia Tech Over 131.5: For much of this year Tech has played great defense, but it has started to break down at that end of the floor as they have allowed 68.3 ppg in their last 6 games, including allowing 70.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Now they have to face a Miami squad that has been solid offensively of late. Yes Miami's last 2 games went to OT, but they have still averaged 71.2 ppg in their last 6 games during regulation. at home this year the Canes have averaged 75.4 ppg, while they have average (in Regulation) 72.3 ppg in their conference home games. Tech has struggled to score of late as they have have averaged just 62.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while on the road this year they have averaged just 61.4 ppg, but they should have some success vs a Miami team that has allowed 68.5 ppg at home, including 73.3 (regulation Only0 in their 3 ACC home games. Miami likes the uptempo pace and tey should get it on their home floor. The uptempo game should help Tech get their points, while Miami will score plenty of their own points vs a tiring Hokie defense. This one should flirt with 140 points.
Northwestern/ Iowa Under 147.5: Northwestern is favorite by 7 and technically the favored home team should have the game at their pace. Right? Well im banking on it here. The pace of the Cats is in the 130's and not the high 140's. Northwestern's home games have averaged just 131.1 ppg on the year, while their Big 10 home games have averaged 132.8 ppg. Iowa does like to run and push tempo and they have scored 74.2 ppg overall and 70 ppg on the road overall, but they will be facing a Wildcat team that has allowed just 61.3 ppg overall at home, including just 63.8 ppg in their Big 10 home games. Northwestern does average 69.6 ppg overall and 69.9 ppg at home, but they are not a team that pushes the ball as they have averaged just 53.3 shots per game, which is 239th in the country. Because of their slower pace I don't expect them to fully take advantage of a bad Iowa defense that has allowed 80 ppg on the road. In big 10 play Northwestern has scored more than 74 points just twice and even if they do hit 77 points in this one (I think 75 is max), I just don't see iowa getting more than 70 vs this tough Cats defense. This one should be played in the high 130's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky +15 over MTSU: The Blue raiders have been impressive at 202 on the year and 12-0 at home, but despite that perfect mark at home they have still only won just 1 of their last 4 at home by more than 15 and have outscored their home foes by 13.2 ppg on the year. WKU is playing better right now, having won 3 of their last 4 and should be able to hang with the Blue Raiders here.
St Mary's +3.5 over GONZAGA: (Added) Google News Play. Going through an entire conference schedule unscathed is hard to do, but I feel that St Mary's has the makeup to doi just that. This team has been dynamite at both end and have out scored their opponents by 16.1 ppg on the year. This team will not be intimidated by the Zags in this one after they won by 21 points vs them back in January, plus in their last visit here they took the game 73-71, so playing here will not intimidate them either. The Zags are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and have really struggled to beat some of the weaker teams of late. The Gaels have edges at both ends of the floor, they are playing with much more confidence than the Zags right now and they know how to win in this building. I expect the outright win here by the Gaels.
UC Northridge -2 over UC DAVIS: (Added) Wise man once say "never ask a bad team to win for you". Well im gonna do just that here. CS Northridge is a bad team at 6-15, but UC Davis is a whole lot worse at 1-21. The Aggies are 1-7 at home this year and 0-10 in the Big West. Both teams have played very bad defense this year, but the Matadors have averaged 6 more points overall on offense and 10 more ppg in their last 5 games than the Aggies, so they get a solid edge there. This long year in Aggie land will only get longer after tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Denver +1.5 over FLORIDA ATLANTIC: (Added) Denver is better at both ends of the floor and should walk out with the outright win here.