Wunderdog
Louisiana Tech at Texas State
Pick: Louisiana Tech -8
The Texas State Bobcats have found the going rough this season, as they take on a 12-3 Louisiana Tech team. The Bobcats are a dismal 4-12, but the four wins came early against some very soft competition. As the schedule has become more demanding, Texas St. has now dropped seven straight games, and six of those were by double-digits. LA Tech does a much better job taking care of the ball, and extra possessions will carry them over the top here. The Bulldogs are a momentum-driven team, and following a win they have dropped just three games ATS in their last 21. The Bobcats show little home-court advantage at 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home. Go with LA Tech.
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Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento KingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The nightmare season for Dallas continued last night with a 99-93 loss against the red hot LA Clippers. Now the Mavericks have to travel and play again tonight in Sacramento, and while these teams have nearly identical season records (Dallas is 13-23, Sacramento is 13-22), the Kings have played far better here on their home court where they have earned ten of their 13 victories. We'll back Sacramento here against the weary Mavericks and note that Dallas has not only lost ten of their last eleven games overall, but they have allowed at least 99 points in eight of their last nine. Sacramento pulled outright home wins against New York, Boston, and Portland recently and can handle a downtrodden and tired Dallas team tonight!
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Arizona State vs. Oregon State
Play: Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona St has a solid 13-2 record with one of those losses coming to a very good Creighton team. The Sun Devils are playing at a much quicker pace this season and their offense has been much better because of their new up-tempo approach. Arizona St is averaging 73 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and 33.8% from three-point land. They have terrific inside-outside play with Carrick Felix inside the paint and Jahii Carson running the point. They are also a deeper team this season as they regularly use an 8-9 man rotation. The Sun Devils have played exceptional defense holding opponents to just 63 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land. Oregon St is playing without their full lineup after they lost Angus Brandt for the season. “It’s definitely been tough having him gone,” Roberto Nelson said. The Beavers have a 10-4 record as they’ve been able to get by without Brandt because they’ve played an extremely weak schedule. In fact, Oregon St has played a schedule that ranks #301 in the country. They’ve been battered on the boards against those bad teams so we expect Arizona St to control the glass in this game and the offensive rebounds will allow them to score a lot of second-chance points. Arizona St has played the better basketball against the tougher opponents so we’ll take the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Thursday night.
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Colorado -8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In three true road games the Trojans lost by 8 at Georgia, by 8 at New Mexico and by 12 at Nebraska, USC is just 1-4-1 as an underdog away from home. They don't have a great deal of ability to create their own shot which is a major problem against a good offensive team like Colorado.
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Colorado is 10-4 on the season with losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona and Arizona State. The Arizona loss was in overtime after a controversial ending to regulation. That would have been their first road victory over a top 5 team in over four decades. The team was devastated by that loss and slept through the Arizona State contest. Now back at home with a chip in its shoulder we expect a great game from the host. The Buffaloes are 3-1 ATS and undefeated here this season. Tonight we find a fired up host with great point spread value.
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Dallas Mavericks +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dallas Mavericks should not be an underdog tonight to the Sacramento Kings. They are undervalued right now due to their 13-23 start, but they recently got Dirk Nowitzki back from injury. I look for the Mavs to take off starting tonight with a road win over the Kings.
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Sacramento had been playing pretty well before back-to-back blowout losses. It fell 93-113 at Brooklyn before an 81-113 home loss to Memphis last time out. I look for the Kings to suffer a third straight blowout defeat tonight, which has been a pretty common theme when they square off against the Mavs.
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Dallas has won 12 of its last 13 meetings with Sacramento. Each of the last four wins by the Mavs in this series have come by 10 points or more. In fact, nine of the Mavs' 12 wins during this stretch have come by 8 or more points. As you can see, this has been a pretty one-sided series to say the least.
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The Mavericks are 44-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games, which included a 6-point loss against the Clippers as a 10.5-point dog last night. The Kings are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. Sacramento is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
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Utah +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a game Utah had circled before the season even started as it was embarrassed 76-49 at UCLA in last season's meeting. I expect this meeting to turn out much differently as the Bruins struggle in their first true road game of the season. College teams headed up by coach Krystkowiak are 7-0 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. His teams have won these games by an average of 12.3 points.
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Miami Heat -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Off a disappointing performance at Indiana, expect the reigning NBA champs to flex their muscles in Portland where they have won the last 3 meetings by at least 7 points. The Blazers have won their last 3 but are 3-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these contests by an average score of 102.5 to 96.0. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Heat are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland. Lay the points.
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Dallas Mavericks +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though the Mavericks are playing the second game of a back-to-back set and their third contest in four nights, I believe they are being extremely undervalued tonight.
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Dallas has lost four straight and 10 of 11 overall, but if you look close enough you can see that they are playing much better now that Dirk Nowitzki is getting back into the swing of things. A lot of people overlook the fact that the schedule has been absolutely brutal. Over their last four games they have taken the Heat to overtime, lost by just six at Utah and last night had a lead going into the 4th quarter at Los Angeles (Clippers).
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All Sacramento has done in their last two games is lose at Brooklyn by 20 points and at home to Memphis by 32. I'm having a hard time figuring out why they are favored in this one. Dallas is definitely worth a small bet tonight!
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Iowa +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawkeyes come into this game off a 67-95 loss at Michigan, while the Spartans knocked off Purdue 84-61 at home in their last outing. The fact that Iowa is only a 2-point underdog, has me thinking oddsmakers want the public to jump all over Michigan State when in fact they believe Iowa has an excellent shot at winning this game. The Hawkeyes are a much better team at home, which is evident by their 65-69 loss to Indiana. While I'm not quite confident enough to lay a big bet on Iowa in this spot, I think it's the right side and deserving of a small play. Take the Points!
Red Dog Sports
Old Dominion +11
George Mason has one player scoring in double digits. They are at home and do play solid defense but they are not the force we have seen in previous years. ODU has struggled this year without a leader like Kent Bazemore or Ben Finney. They are well coached by Blaine Taylor but seem to find a way to lose each game. They were blown out by Richmond early this year but most games have been close. Ross, Donte Hill, Dmitri Batten and transfer Deshawn Painter are their scorers. GMU wins by 8 but ODU covers the big number.
Greg Daraban
Saint Marys at Gonzaga
Pick: Gonzaga
Huge game in the WCC must respect a very good St.Mary's team, however they are walking into a hornets nest. Gonzaga is still realing after getting beat by St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament last year in Las Vegas. Gonzaga beat Baylor, Ok St, Kansas St, and Wash St. Take 558 Gonzaga ** Greg won both games last night Memphis in the NBA and Univ Washington both were dogs both were underdogs.
Andrew Lange
Arizona State at Oregon State
Play: Oregon State
I'm not sold on Arizona's 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12 start. Are the Sun Devils better than last year? No question. But the schedule has been extremely favorable thus far and things get a bit tougher starting tonight in Corvallis. For starters ASU has played one true road game against a Texas Tech squad that just lost on its home floor to Baylor by 34. Next, the Sun Devils are 2-0 in league play but needed overtime to get past Utah and were gift-wrapped a win against Colorado after the Buffaloes were hosed out of one on the road against undefeated Arizona. Oregon State meanwhile below a six-point halftime lead and ended up losing to rival Oregon 79-66 at home. With Arizona on deck and then back-to-back road games in LA, all of a sudden this game has a lot of meaning. If Oregon State can keep ASU's Jahii Carson in check – I expect they’ll throw multiple defensive looks his way – I think they’ll come away with a solid victory at home.
Harry Bondi
PORTLAND (+3.5) over Miami
tonight we'll ride the team that's at home, is playing better basketball and is catching points. After a recent six-game winning streak, the Heat have won just three of their last seven straight up and are on a 1-6 tailspin against the spread. They are getting killed on the boards right now and that spells trouble against a Trailblazer team that's one of the best in the league in second-chance points. Portland rides a strong home court (12-4 straight-up on this floor) to an upset victory.
Ian Cameron
Texas-Arlington at Texas-San Antonio
Play: Texas-San Antonio
I’ve picked my spots in cashing a couple tickets against this Texas-Arlington squad and I think tonight offers another good opportunity for another fade as they take on Texas-San Antonio. The weakness all season for Texas-San Antonio has been their play on the defensive end of the court. The Roadrunners have allowed 70 points per game and a very poor 51% shooting to opposing teams on their home floor this season but I’m not sure that Arlington is offensively capable of taking advantage of the defensive woes. Arlington has been a consistently woeful shooting team most of the season and they failed to exceed 52 points scored in any of their last three home games – SU and ATS losses to Denver, Boise State and Louisiana Tech. The Mavericks’ struggles offensively have crippled their ability to win games and cover pointspreads especially when you consider that Boise State, who is far from a shut down defensive team, kept Arlington to just 46 points. The Mavericks are shooting below 40% for the season and just 31.5% from the perimeter. Arlington’s last game may be extra difficult to get over as they held a double-digit lead at home against Louisiana Tech with about eight minutes left in the second half before the roof caved in and the Bulldogs came back to win 55-52. That was a bitter loss for the Mavericks and there may still be a hangover effect from it heading into tonight.
Texas-San Antonio has suffered some ugly results as of late with a couple of home losses against Utah State and San Jose State followed by two real ugly road losses by 20+ points at Denver and New Mexico State. But playing for the first time in four days, the Roadrunners should be ready for a strong bounce back effort tonight. UTSA has been battered and bruised from a road heavy schedule – only three home games! UTSA has won each of the last three meetings against Arlington on this court dating back to 2010. The wrong team was favored in my opinion at first but it has since been corrected with UTSA opening as +2 point home underdogs and now the short home favorite. Despite the line move, I think there is still enough value to recommend a play on the home side.
Nelly
Colorado - over USC
After being robbed in Tucson last Thursday, the Buffaloes were understandably a little worn out for Saturday's game, falling as a slight road favorite at Arizona State. With some time to unwind and regain focus, Colorado should be in good position for tonight's Pac-12 home opener. Colorado has four losses but this is one of the best teams in the Pac-12 and Colorado is 6-0 at home. The schedule has been difficult with two losses coming to highly ranked Kansas and Arizona as well as a loss to a Wyoming team that started 13-0. Colorado has defeated Dayton, Baylor, Murray State, Air Force, and Colorado State and this team should not be ruled out for being in the Pac-12 title mix after winning the conference tournament last season. USC has won two of the last three games but both wins came by two points at home, including one win in overtime. Against a very mediocre Cal team USC lost by eight at home last weekend and this simply is not a very good team. USC is just 6-9 on the season and while somehow this team beat Texas early in the year in an ugly overtime game, this is also a team that has lost by eight or more seven times this season, including against several suspect teams. USC has been on a horrible 16-34-1 ATS run including 1-9-1 in the last 11 road games going back to last season and there is no reason to expect that to change tonight.