Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. Charlotte lost in overtime 96-102 to Atlanta on 1/6 less than a week ago, and this team has not forgotten. I like their chances of taking these tired Hawks right down to the wire, possibly pulling off the upset.
Atlanta will be playing their 8th game in 11 days tonight. This has been an absolutely brutal stretch for the Hawks. They started to show signs of tiring last night as they were manhandled 84-96 at Indiana. The Hawks will be running on fumes when they return home tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. While the Bobcats have had a tough stretch of games as well, they are more rested than Atlanta coming in.
The Bobcats are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Charlotte is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a games where they made 35% of their shots or worse. The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after a combined score of 160 or less. Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Hawks, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Bobcats Thursday.
Andre Gomes
Bobcats / Hawks Under 181
Atlanta is coming from a loss yesterday at Indiana and the bad news was that Al Horford got injured and he will be out for a month! Without Horford, Atlanta who is already a super perimeter oriented team by shooting 52% of their shots from 16 feet or further will be even more perimeter oriented, as Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia lack the offensive skills that Horford possesses. The Hawks are on a bad physical spot as well and they will play a half court game tonight. They had a similar spot at Charlotte last week and even though the game went to overtime, the result at the end of the regular time was 91-91, in an acceptable game from both offenses and with a pace of 85! This will very hardly happen once again tonight due to the absence of Horford and because the Bobcats offense has regressed in their last few games.
On the Bobcats side, Byron Mullens will start at center tonight and Thomas is also expected to play as well! One of their problemas has been their inability of scoring near the basket. In their last three games, they shot 13-26 FG, 11-18 FG and 16-30 FG at the rim and even though Horford is out, Zaza & Collins are a good defensive duo and they will prevent Charlotte from scoring a lot near the basket once again! One of the biggest outcomes of Charlotte this season was when they opponents set a really fast space like in the games against Miami and in their first game against the Knicks, but when they are involved on a half court game, their offense completely disappears. This is what I expect to happen tonight and so, I came up with a projection line of just 177 points, which makes me take the under in here.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Buffalo -113
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
The Leafs are 22-15-3-2, and are 10-10-1-0 on the road; they've won four straight, including a 2-0 shootout victory over these same Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday.
All four of those victories came in Toronto; note that those wins came on the heels of three straight road losses.
On the other bench: The Sabres are 18-19-3-2, including 10-9-3-2 in front of the home town crowd; they've lost three straight.
After tonight's game, Buffalo hits the road for a seven-game trip.
It goes without saying that this team has "revenge" on its mind, and is desperate to end its current losing streak, and to have something to build off moving forward on the lengthy trip away from friendly confines; "We need to get one and it will make the boys in here feel good and hopefully we can string them on from there," F Drew Stafford said. "We've got a great opportunity in the rematch."
Bottom line: This is definitely a "situational play"; consider laying the short price.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
St Mary's/ Gonzaga Over 142: Well after being with Brandon on today's radio show and hearing his pick on this game I went and did a little more homework work on it and found that I really like this play. I hope I don't jinx ya Brandon by making it my 5 unit play. LOL Both of these teams do pay good defense as Gonzaga has allowed 61.9 ppg, while the Gaels have allowed 60.8 ppg on the year, but tonight the offenses will take over. Gonzaga comes in averaging 75.2 ppg overall and 73.5 ppg on the road. They also shoot he ball very well, ranking 80th in shooting (46.2%), plus they have hit 39.1% from long range (32nd). St Mary's is another scoring machine as they have averaged 76.9 ppg (35th) on 48.2% shooting (27th), plus they have done very well from beyond the arc, hitting 36.8% of from long range (80th). The Gaels have really excelled at home, where they have scored 79.8 ppg on 48% shooting, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged 82.8 ppg on 50.7 % shooting overall and another 43.9% from long range. The Zags come in averaging 77.4 ppg on 48% shooting, including another 41.9% from long range in their last 5 games. This game really does have shooutout written all over it and also it should be a close game, which puts OT possibly in play, plus all those extra FT's at the end of the game as well. I expect this one to hit 150+.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
George Mason/ Drexel Over 118: Neither of these teams like to run all that much, but I believe there are still points to be had in this one. George Mason comes in 194th in shots taken (54.3) and that have put up a solid 70.4 ppg on 47% shooting, and that drop off isn't all that much when they take to the road, where they have averaged 68.5 ppg on 46.1% shooting. The Patriots have stepped it up even more of last as they have averaged 71.8 ppg on 47.5% shooting in their last 5 games. Drexel has played good defense this year as they have allowed 55.6 ppg on 39.6% shooting overall, but they have struggled at times, allowing 69 pts to Fairfield, 60 to a weak Princeton offense, 71 to Delaware and 68 to Bradley. George mason ranks 123rd in scoring and of the 4 teams listed above the best offense they faced was Delaware's (173rd), while the other 3 are all ranked above 200 in defensive scoring. Very inconsistent defense and i see the patriots being able to crack it tonight. Drexel is one of the slower paced teams in the nation (305th in spg), but at home they have scored pretty well (68.6 ppg), including averaing 67.4 ppg in their last 5 at home. Tonight they have a good chance to match their last 5 at home as George mason has allowed 65.3 ppg on the road this year. Despite how well Drexel has played defense this year I don't see George Mason being held under 60 points in this one, while the Dragons should be good for 60= points of their pown vs a very average defensive team. Pace will obviously be key in this game and while Drexel will look to slow it down, I see the Patriots speeding it up enough for this game to go OVER the total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is 119.5 or less and a team (Drexel) is off 2 or more consecutive home wins and they are a good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. This play is 38-15 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee-Martin +11 over EASTERN ILLINOIS: UT- Martin comes in with a horrible 3-15 mark, bet they have played better in their last 2 games, losing by a combined 6 points in the two games and they have shot better in the two games, having hit 455 of their shots, compared to shooting under 40% for the year before those 2 games. Eastern Illinois comes in at 8-6 on the year and 5-1 at home but they have been inconsistent as their 3 division 1 home wins have been by 5 or less, while their lone home loss was by 33 points to Murray State, which is a team ETU lost by just 24 points on the road to. Now as i said the panthers have been inconsistent this year and one needs to look no further than their no- lined games to see a good picture of how inconsistent this team is. The Panthers have played 7 no-lined games and while they did beat Eureka by 31 in their first no-lined game, they have gone to OT in two others (1-1), won by just 3 at home in another and had 2 outright losses. This is a team that seems to have played down to their competition when it has been weak. E. Illinois has the offensive edge, but both teams have played very bad defense and I believe the EIU defense will allow this team to hang around. I look for a close one from start to finish.
Minnesota +11 Over INDIANA: Great scheduling spot for the Gophers. Indiana has played Mich State, OSU (Big Upset), Michigan and PSU in their last 4 games, with the last 3 all going down to wire. Now they must take on a Minnesota team that has lost 4 in a row, with a big game vs OSU on deck. This is still a young Indiana team nd i reallly see it hard for them to get up for this one. Despite losing their last 4 games, Minnesota has not played all that badly as they have been outscored by just 7.3 ppg, with 1 of the games going to OT and 2 others going down to the wire. Idiana has really played well overall this year and they will make some noise in March, but I just feel that covering a big number in a letdown spot vs a quality opponent is too much for this young team to handle here. Indiana by no more than 7 here.
Duke/ Virginia Over 128: Google News Play. Duke averages 89.6 ppg at home and they can score in a variety of ways. Inside the paint with Plumlee, plus the slashing ability of Rivers and his medium rang jumpshot as well and this team is deadly from long range as they have hit 41.9 % of their long range shots, which is 8th in the country. That just too many weapons for even a very good defense like the Cavs to hold down and I feel that at the very least Duke should be good for 70 points in this one. The Duke defense has not been that strong this year as they come in ranked 236 in points allowed (69.4 ppg), 244th defensive FG% (44.3) and 196th in 3pt defense (34.3%). Very un-Duke like numbers and It should allow an average Virginia squad to score on them here. Virginia does put up just 65.7 ppg (228th), but they shoot the ball very well, hitting 46.5% of their shots (67th), while on the road they are scoring 69 ppg on 48.3% shooting. Viginia on defense does allow 50.45 ppg on 38% shooting overall, but on the road they have allowed 61 ppg on 44.2% shooting, so I see no reason why a Duke team that averages 89+ at home can't get at least 70 in this one, while Virginia can't grat at the very least 59 points vs a below average Duke defense. Really I'm looking at 135+ in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
James Madison +14 over VCU: JAMES MADISON is 13-4 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, while VCU is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points over the last 3 seasons.
Tennessee +7 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky +7 over NORTH TEXAS: Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, with a losing record and off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival are 71-35 ATS the last 5 seasons.
Utah +22.5 over STANFORD: Play against a favorite after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games vs an opponent that has gone under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games. This play is 24-4 since 1997.
Andrew Lange
Virginia at Duke
Play: Virginia +11
If you run through Duke's scores against good competition this year you don't see a lot of double-digit wins. They beat Belmont by 1, Michigan State by 5, Tennessee by 10, Michigan by 7, Kansas by 7, and Washington by 6. Also noted are losses to Ohio State and Temple and a 7-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. The Blue Devils did beat Davidson by 13 in Durham back in November – a game the Wildcats led at halftime. Obviously some of those games were on the road/neutral but at no point have we seen the Blue Devils roll over a halfway competent opponent. And that is exactly what they'll face tonight in Virginia. The Cavaliers don't go about it in a very exiting manner but they bring the type of defense we like to have when backing a double-digit underdog. And in watching UVA play this season, the offense is much improved. It doesn't necessarily show with more than a few offensive outputs in the 50's but that doesn't mean they aren't knocking down shots when needed. And perhaps lost is all of this is the fact that Duke hasn't been all that great on defense. Some of that has to do with the pace of their games increasing, but from a points-per-possession standpoint, they allowed six of the aforementioned 10 teams to top 1.0 ppp. Last season, in 37 games, only nine opponents topped that mark. Tonight is going to be the type of game that Duke has yet to experience this season (slow, defensive, low possession) and I think that helps our play on the underdog.
Sammy P
Phoenix at Detroit
Play: Under 5.5
Phoenix comes into Detroit tonight in the midst of a three-game road trip in which they dropped the first game 2-1 in a shootout to the New York Rangers. Phoenix has fallen from grace the last month going just 5-11 and really struggling to put pucks in the net especially away from home. They’ve averaged just 1.60 goals away from home in their last 5 contests. Detroit has been phenomenal defensively on its home ice this season giving up just 1.78 goals per game and an even better mark of just 10 goals against in their last seven home games. Expect a tight defensive effort from the Red Wings tonight after giving up five goals to the Islanders on Tuesday night. Detroit may also still be without star Pavel Datsyuk tonight as he is recovering from a lower body injury and is a game time decision. His absence in the lineup is definitely felt offensively for this Detroit team. Past history between these two teams would have you believe this is going to be a high scoring affair, but with their current form the only way to look in this game UNDER.