DAVE COKIN
UC SANTA BARBARA AT CAL POLY
PLAY: CAL POLY -3
I won’t be surprised to see a slightly better number available on this game during the day, but as of right now it’s -3 at the South Point, so that’s what I’ll use to grade this play.
Cal Poly is sitting at 6-8, but I think this is a team that’s about to start winning some games. The Mustangs over scheduled big time to start the season. They’ve paid the price with the not so hot W/L ledger. But with eight days off since losing at Hawaii, and with the team the healthiest it’s been all season according to what I’ve been told, this could be the spot where Cal Poly starts getting it together.
Head coach Joe Callero has started that this is the most athletic team he has fielded since arriving in San Luis Obispo. If all the components are back in place tonight, UC Santa Barbara figures to have some trouble. The Gauchos are definitely down one key player tonight, as John Green remains out, and his presence on the glass figures to be missed here.
I also like the fact the Mustangs have some significant revenge as a little extra motivation here. Cal Poly blew a big lead in its home game with the Gauchos last season, getting run over 20-5 down the stretch. They then lost the regular season finale at the Thunderdome and finally saw the season end with a narrow conference tournament defeat to UCSB.
One huge difference between last season’s trio of duels and this one is that the Gauchos won’t be service up any Big Sauce. Alan Williams has graduated and not having to sweat his presence any more should be a big confidence booster for the Mustangs.
I like this spot for the home team, and I’ve been waiting for a spot to get on the Mustangs. Hopefully, this is it. Cal Poly minus the small number tonight for me.
Sleepyj
Cavs / Spurs Under 195.5
Points will be tough to come by in this one tonight..Two big time teams playing tonight..When we get these types of matchups i like to play the under more often then not..We have two very good defensive teams here tonight...Spurs rank #1 on defense and the Cavs rank #3...We saw this same type of outcome when the Cavs met the Warriors..Big time teams won't be pushed around..They step up on the defensive end..We have two teams both with rest here...Cabs have won 8 straight games and the Spurs have won 9 in a row..Neither team will want to lose this one tonight..I think both teams matchup rather well..I can see this one going under here tonight in a slugfest of possession for possession basketball...Spurs have not lost at home all year long also..They will bring that #1 defense to the table here tonight..Under gets the call...I made my line for this game at 191.5
Xander Locke
Raptors vs. Magic
Play: Under 193
This is going to be a hard fought, low scoring, close game. The last meeting between these two teams totaled 179 points combined. This one isn't going to be much different. Toronto is running out of gas on their four game win streak. Plus the Raptors just aren't as good on the road. Not to mention Toronto is ranked 4th in the league in points allowed with an average of 96.7 per game. While Orlando is ranked 7th in points allowed this season. This total won't go over 185 points.
Rob Vinciletti
Raptors vs. Magic
Play: Raptors -4
Both Toronto and Orlando come in well rested with 3 days off for this game. However, the Raptors have won 11 of the last 12 in the series and are a solid 14-1 to the spread on the road after playing Philadelphia. Orlando has failed to cover 10 straight at home off a win with 2 or more days rest if they allowed their last opponent to shoot 50% or higher From the field. Look for Toronto to get the win.
Dave Price
Gonzaga -6.5
We are getting the Gonzaga Bulldogs at a very reasonable price as only 6.5-point home favorites over the BYU Cougars tonight. The Bulldogs have righted the ship here of late by winning seven straight games coming in with six of those victories coming by 7 points or more. Now they face a BYU team that has not had any success on the road this season. The Cougars are 1-4 in true road games this season with a 1-point loss at Long Beach State, an 8-point loss at Utah, a 9-point loss at Colorado and an 11-point loss at St. Mary's. Gonzaga is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with a total set of 160 or more points. The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The home team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with the Cougars.
Scott Spreitzer
Western Kentucky vs. Rice
Play: Western Kentucky -1
If you like offense, you'll love watching the Hilltoppers. WKU has five players averaging between 17.6 ppg and 10 ppg, have nine players averaging over 11 minutes played per game, and have the consummate point-guard in Chris McNeal, dishing out assists and setting up scorers. Most teams at WKU's level have to be able to score to hang with them. That's Rice's problem. While the Hilltoppers connect on 48% of their shots, the Owls rank 237th in FG percentage and 307th in 3-point accuracy. Rice is horrible on the defensive end, where they allow the opposition to connect on more than 48% of their FGA and 41.3% from behind the arc. This is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and I expect WKU to take full advantage. Western KY has been challenged on the road this season, playing at Xavier, Louisville, and Marshall. A stop in Houston certainly won't intimidate. Meanwhile, Rice has lost five straight games, allowing 77.4 ppg.
Ben Burns
Cleveland at San Antonio
Play: Under 195½
Thursday’s massive matchup between the Cavaliers and Spurs will have that playoff feel to it, which means some gritty play and hard-nosed defense from both sides. Cleveland is in the midst of a lengthy road trip, making this spot No. 5 on a six-game stretch. This will be a statement game for the Cavs, who have gone 8-12 Over/Under on the road – 3-8 O/U in their last 11 away games - and boast the third best defense in the NBA, allowing only 95.5 points per game. San Antonio, which tops the NBA in defense at 89.7 points per game, has been just as potent on offense but we see this game slowing down. LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard will be going head-to-head, and two of the better defensive forwards could make it difficult for each other to facilitate offense.
Jack Jones
Texas-Arlington -7
The Texas-Arlington Mavericks are one of the best small school teams in the country this season. They have gotten off to a 12-2 start with some impressive wins along the way. I think we are getting them at a great price today against the Troy Trojans.
Arlington's two losses this season have both come on the road to LA Tech and Texas (in overtime). It has gone on the road and beaten the likes of Ohio State (73-68) and Memphis (68-64), so this team is clearly the real deal. The Mavericks have gone a sensational 10-2 ATS in all lined games.
Troy (5-10) stands little chance of even being competitive in this game. It has gone 0-5 in its last five games overall. In fact, the Trojans are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their only victory coming at home against lowly Paine college by an uninspiring 85-77 final.
Arlington is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Trojans have very little home-court advantage as they are a woeful 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Jim Feist
Lakers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 214.5
LA doesn't play any defense, 27th in the NBA in points allowed, 25th in field goal shooting defense. The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 road games. Golden State tears up everyone offensively, tops in the NBA in points scored with 114 ppg. Golden State is on a 16-6 run over the total and the Over is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Marreese Speights shook off 36 minutes of rust to score the first six points of the fourth quarter to help the Warriors take control and go on to their 36th straight regular-season home win, 111-103 over the Heat on Monday night. Miami is a great defensive team, however, so the Warriors will get to tear up a soft defense here. Over is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Golden State.
Dave Essler
IUPUI -3
Going back to the well here we know from betting on IUPUI last week when they beat South Dakota State outright at home that they played a brutal non-conference schedule - and we know that 90% of their games to that point were also on the road. Since last week they've won a road conference game at Western Illinois and sit at 3-1 in Summit League play. Oral Roberts did and always does play a hard early season schedule, but they're simply not as good as IUPUI. They (Oral Roberts) don't play nearly as solid on defense as IUPUI and they're taking that on the road, which is something I wouldn't back anyway. Add that to the fact that last year was OR's first year in the Summit League and they beat IUPUI three times, including in the Conference Tournament - and ALL three games were either close or went to OT (that's close, too, I get it - typing and thinking isn't my strength). IUPUI has the second ranked Conference defense LAST season. I do not think OR has an answer for O'Leary - who at 6'8" often plays SHOOTING Guard. So, we've got a team looking to get even after three losses last season, that's a bit bigger, a bit more experienced, and has a bit longer bench, and is at home. We can't ask for more than that.
David Banks
Iowa vs. Michigan St
Pick: Michigan St -7
Back on Dec. 30, Iowa handed then top-ranked Michigan State its first loss of the season, an 83-70 defeat in which the Hawkeyes never trailed. The Spartans played without star Denzel Valentine, but even his presence would not have made a difference. Michigan State better be on top of its game Thursday or the Spartans will fall behind in the race for the Big Ten title.
Spartans head coach Tom Izzo will have Valentine in the lineup, but his squad will need to clamp down on one of the most underrated players in the nation in Hawkeyes 6-9 senior Jarred Uthoff. Uthoff leads the Hawkeyes in scoring (18.6 ppg), shoots 46 percent from 3-point range, and blocks nearly three shot per game. In the first meeting between the two teams, it was Mike Gesell who led Iowa with 25 points while Uthoff was in foul trouble. Gesell, a 6-2 guard, averages 10 points and nearly seven assists per game.
Izzo, as well as the home Spartans crowd, will be happy to have Valentine back. The 6-5 senior is one of the nation’s best averaging 18.5 points and 7.1 assists. Valentine had arthroscopic surgery on his knee in December. He was cleared to play last week against Illinois but decided to sit out after not feeling 100 percent in pre-game warmups. Valentine is expected to play against Penn State on Sunday, January 10. With a healthy Valentine and a home-court advantage, Iowa will have a much tougher go this time around.
Jeff Saad
Nashville at Winnipeg
Play Winnipeg
Stumbling Nashville has dropped 4 in a row and winds up a long road stretch here, playing 8 of 10 away. The Predators are 7-20 in their last 27 road games. Winnipeg is good at home and the Jets are 10-4 in their last 14 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals.
MATT FARGO
UAB vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -4
C-USA favorites UAB and Old Dominion meet for the first and only time this season in a game that could go a long way in deciding the regular season championship. The Blazers have won 10 straight games including the last three to open C-USA play a perfect 3-0. All three of those games were at home however and this is the first road game for UAB in over three weeks. Old Dominion is coming off an upset loss at Southern Mississippi where it lost by a bucket as a 12-point chalk to fall to 2-1 in the conference. While the season is young, this is a big game for the Monarchs as they don't want to fall two games behind UAB with no rematch upcoming. They are 7-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 21.4 ppg and while this will be a big test, it should not be an issue. Old Dominion has the best player on the floor in senior guard Trey Freeman, the reigning and preseason C-USA Player of the Year and he can take over a game. Going back, the Monarchs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of six points or less while going 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, UAB is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.
RICKY TRAN
Sacramento at Utah
Play: Utah -130
The Kings lost 109-97 against New Orleans last night to make it three defeats in their last four games. They've won just three of the last 17 visits to Utah and the Jazz have won four of their last five on their own floor overall. The Jazz failed to record a third consecutive win as they fell 99-85 at Portland Wednesday. They have a good chance to rebound with a win tonight though going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest while the Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
California vs. Stanford
Play: California -3½
Long-time followers know that two key things that key Rickenbach's selections are contrarian viewpoints and value. Here, with California on Thursday, we have both attributes in full effect. Cal is only laying 3.5 points here because they are on the road so the small line is the value. As for the contrarian angle, many will be fooled into grabbing Stanford here because the Cardinal have won three straight match-ups with the Golden Bears. This 0-3 run for Cal in this series has actually simply led to even more line value with California here. They are hungry to atone for the recent defeats and that includes a rare double digit margin home loss last season. The fact is that this season the Golden Bears are the much better team and they will show that on the court tonight. Stanford is holding opponents to just 42.3% from the field but Cal is holding the opposition to only 37.5% from the field. Also, the Cardinal are shooting 43% from the floor but the Golden Bears are knocking down an ultra impressive 47.5% of their shots from the field. Cal comes into this game with plenty of hunger as they are off of back to back losses. The only time that happened this season they won their next game by 14 points. As for Stanford, they have lost two of their last three and the Cardinal have failed to cover 4 of their last 6 games. Look for Cal to improve to 4-1 ATS in conference games this season while Stanford drops to 3-6 ATS in home games on the season.