MIKE LUNDIN
Lakers vs. Warriors
Play: Lakers +17
The Golden State Warriors most likely entered last night's game at Denver expecting a comfortable win. Instead they left the Rocky Mountains both exhausted and winless, and that sets up a good spot to back the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The Lakers are off a 95-91 win against New Orleans Tuesday and they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Kobe Bryant is rated as questionable, but the Lakers usually find ways to cope without him and Lou Williams is averaging 25.3 points in four games since a 109-88 loss to the Warriors earlier this month. We should also keep in mind that the Warriors will take every opportunity they can to rest starters, Steph Curry first and foremost. Even if the Lakers will fail to keep it a close game they'll have an excellent chance to backdoor cover.
JIMMY BOYD
Arizona State -8½
This may seem like a lot of points for the Sun Devils to be laying at home, especially considering Arizona State has opened up 0-3 inside conference play. I believe it's the exact opposite. I think the Sun Devils are showing great value here at this price against an overrated Washington State team.
Arizona State's poor start to conference play has been a result of a brutal schedule. The Sun Devils had to open at home against the league's best team in Arizona, followed by road games against two of the better teams in the Pac-12 in USC and UCLA. The 0-3 start is going to have Arizona State coming out with a sense of urgency against the Cougars.
Washington State is 1-2 in league play, with an impressive win over UCLA, but have also played all 3 of their conference games at home. One of those was a 13-point home loss to USC. The other a 95-99 overtime loss to in-state rival Washington in their last contest. No question this team got up for the Huskies and with a big road game against Arizona on deck, this has the makings of a trap game for the Cougars. On top of that, this team is just 1-3 away from home and have played just 1 true road game, which they lost 74-78 at Idaho as a 8.5-point favorite.
Sun Devils are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing in a game that saw 155 or more combined points scored and have won these by an average of 20.0 ppg. Washington State on the other hand is 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after a home game where both teams scored 75+ points and 8-19-4 ATS in their last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers -103 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders have absolutely been less impressive than the Rangers over the last dozen games with five wins and seven losses. Even in their victories, the Islanders look highly flawed. The Isles needed six goals to defeat Dallas, 6-5. They defeated the Maple Leafs 6-3 with a mere 21 shots on net. In a 2-1 victory over Buffalo, the Isles allowed 43 shots on net. From December 31 to January 7th, a recent string of four games, the Islanders allowed 43, 43, 41, and 38 shots on net respectively. The Islanders are coming off a 5-2 victory over Columbus. Big deal, as the Jackets are dead last in the NHL with 36 points. Prior to that, the Islanders lost to Philly and Washington and were outscored 8-1. Furthermore, the Islanders are without two of its best defensemen in Johnny Boychuk and Travis Hamonic and that’s a big problem against quality opponents. Boychuk’s loss is much bigger than the market is aware of, as he plays almost 25 minutes a game and led the Islanders in +/- at +9. The Islanders are very beatable at the moment.
The Rangers have been in our doghouse for much of the first half but we’re seeing plenty of good signs from them lately. Perhaps it took the Rangers a half season to wake up but they’re playing so much better lately without the results to show for it. On December 30, the Blue Shirts defeated Tampa Bay 5-2. A couple days later they went into Florida and lost 3-0 but outshot the Panthers, 40-20. Two days later they whacked the Stars, 6-2. Subsequently, the Rangers hosted Washington and lost 4-3 in OT and finally in their last game, the Rangers defeated the Bruins 2-1. The Rangers could easily be on a 5-0 run. They held Tampa, Florida and Dallas to 22, 20 and 23 shots on net respectively. They are healthier and in much better form than the host and the Rangers also have a significant edge in net with Henrik Lundqvist over anyone the Islanders choose to use. The Islanders home games do not sell out. Capacity is over 18,000 at the Barclays Center and there are 5000 empty seats almost every game. This game will be sold out with almost as much support for the Rangers as the Islanders. The point is that this is hardly a road game for the Rangers, as this is a battle between two boroughs in the same region. Frankly, there is nothing to like about the Islanders here in this evenly priced matchup.
Carolina +130 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Hurricanes have picked up 25 out of a possible 38 points over their last 19 games. They have won three in a row and have picked up points in eight of their last 10 games. Carolina leads the NHL in shots against per game and they lead in the NHL in fewest minor penalties taken. This is a disciplined, well-coached team in very good form that is right back in the playoff picture. Carolina is two points out of a Wild Card spot in the tightly congested East. With a victory here, the ‘Canes will leapfrog over three teams. Had the Hurricanes received the quality goaltending in the first 2½ months of the season that they’ve received over the past month, we’d be discussing a top-3 team and not a top-16 team.
St. Louis has nothing but problems against quality opposition. In 21 games against top-16 outfits, the Blue Notes have seven wins. It may also surprise you to learn that St. Louis has one regulation victory over its past 10 games and that occurred against the depleted Devils upon returning from a three-game trip through Colorado, Anaheim and Los Angeles. This is the Blue Notes second game back after said trip. In the final game of that trip the Blues defeated the Kings 2-1 in OT but had only 16 shots on net and played most of the game in their own end. The Blues window of opportunity closed a couple of years ago and now this team is on the same path as the Sharks were a couple of years ago. Banged up with several key players on the rack and a bunch of NHL castoffs filling in, the Blues 7-14 record against top-16 teams is a clear indication of where the value lies here.
ARIZONA +107 over Detroit
OT included. The Red Wings conclude a tough six-game trip here. They won the first four games of said trip before losing in Los Angeles on Monday night so the hopes of a perfect trip no longer exist. Had Detroit defeated the Kings, we would expect its intensity to be higher here in an attempt to go 6-0 but that didn’t happen and now this becomes a vulnerable spot for them because of it. Despite the four wins in five road games, the Red Wings have not been very impressive on this trip. They have been outshot and out-chanced in every game beginning with the first one in Buffalo where the Sabres outshot Detroit 35-23. Subsequently, the Red Wings mustered a mere 21, 25, 24 and 27 shots on net respectively over their next four games of this trip. During this trip, Detroit won 4-3, 2-1, 2-1 and 1-0. They have been held to two goals or less in four straight. Prior to this trip, the Red Wings lost three in a row while being outscored 12-4. The market sees wins and losses but we see a team that is very fortunate to not be on a nine-game losing streak. An interesting side note to this game is that the Red Wings lost penalty killer specialist Drew Miller this past Sunday. Detroit's penalty kill has operated at 84.6 percent in its 28 games with Miller and 68.8 percent without him and Arizona has scored six PP goals over its last 11 opportunities. Lastly, the Red Wings have been travelling extensively since Jan 26 with this being their ninth game on the road over their past 10 games.
Arizona was flat for the first 30 minutes in its last game against Edmonton and found themselves behind 3-1 early in the third. The Coyotes rallied for a 4-3 OT win to run their winning streak to four. They are extremely unlikely to be flat again here. That win on Tuesday over the Oilers might not seem like much but it was. It was further proof of just how resilient the Coyotes can be and how determined they are to succeed. With that rally, Arizona continued its impressive run of late (9-2-3 in its last 14 games) and improved its record against the Pacific Division to 10-1-2. The Coyotes have racked up 116 goals so far, the fourth-most in the Western Conference and the highest total in the Pacific Division. The team had 94 at this same point last year. Six Coyotes have already reached the 10-goal plateau and only the Capitals have had more players (seven) score at least 10 goals. With solid goaltending and a little tightening up on defense, the ‘Yotes could end up being one of the toughest outs in the league because of their offensive talent and work ethic. They solved their goaltending problems, at least for now with rookie Louis Domingue and they’re working diligently to improve their defensive responsibilities. The Red Wings are favored here only because of the jerseys they wear but it’s not warranted.
COLORADO -½ +131 over New Jersey
Regulation only. We absolutely love that Colorado has lost two straight and allowed 10 goals against in those pair of defeats because it provides us with an opportunity to buy them at a great price. We are always concerned with the Avs defensive miscues but we’re not concerned about them losing to Chicago or Tampa Bay. Combined, that pair has won 11 straight games and both have a surplus of offensive talent. Prior to losing to the Blackhawks and Bolts, Colorado defeated Los Angeles, Nashville and St. Louis. Over their last seven games, the Avs have played Chicago (x2), Nashville, Calgary, Los Angeles, St. Louis and Tampa. From December 12 to the 18th, the Avs won four in a row over the Islanders, Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville. Since November 28th, only one team in the West has picked up more points than the Avalanche. Colorado takes a huge step down in class here and after two straight losses, we trust them to dig down deep and come up with a big effort. The Avs have played the sixth toughest schedule in the NHL and they are very respectful 9-9 against top-10 competition.
The Devils are coming off a 2-1 victory in Minnesota and a 5-2 loss in St. Louis. What the market sees is a strong defensive team that is 12-10 on the road and that’s been a fairly tough out all season. However, New Jersey is the midst of a tailspin that might not end for a while. The Devils have scored two goals or less in five straight games. Over that span they have averaged 21 shots on net per game or seven per period. A teams’ win expectation is probably less than 15% or thereabouts when they average seven shots on net per period. Offensively, the burden is on Travis Zajac and Adam Henrique and while they are good players, they cannot carry a team on their back like they’re being asked to with Mike Cammalleri and Patrik Elias on the rack. Colorado and the Devils have the exact same 21-23 record. The difference is that the Avs play in the West and have played one of the toughest schedules in the league while the Devils have played the 20th ranked strength of schedule and play in the weaker East. Furthermore, the Devils did it with a healthy roster and now they’re filled with a bunch of third and fourth line players.
SPORTS WAGERS
Iowa +9 over MICHIGAN ST.
We will leave the court talk out of this one and simply break this down from the angle the market is eating up on this game; REVENGE. Iowa handed this very Michigan State team its sole defeat on the year on December 29th back in Iowa, 83-70. The Spartans have had this game circled on their calendars ever since in much the same way that Golden State had the Bucks circled after Milwaukee snapped the Warriors dream of a perfect season. The Warriors would open as a 17-point favorite and it was up to 19½ by game time. In case you missed it, Golden State trailed by 12 points in the fourth quarter of that game and was lucky to win it. They didn’t come close to covering the big number and this one has a similar feel to it. Revenge is perhaps the most overused and overrated angle is sports betting. College and pro sports is lined with hundreds of revenge minded teams that fail to win or cover. It’s a lame angle that rarely has an impact on the outcome.
Michigan State is one of the blue-chip programs in all of college basketball, often favored by many to consistently vie for a Final Four berth and National Championship. The Spartans are indeed a thoroughbred, they’re ranked #4 in the country and you will indeed pay extra to back them here. The Spartans have played three ranked teams thus far and their biggest margin of victory was six points over #4 Kansas back in their second game of the year. They also faced then #24 Louisville and won by four points before facing an unranked Iowa team at the time and losing by 13.
Iowa has played five ranked teams thus far. On November 27, they lost by six points to then #17 Notre Dame. Subsequently the Hawkeyes defeated #20 Wichita State by 23 points. On December 10th the Hawkeyes lost an 83-82 nail-biter against arch nemesis #4 Iowa State on the road in Ames. Finally, the Hawkeyes defeated then #1 Michigan State to knock the Spartans off their perch and followed that up with a seven-point win over #14 Purdue. From a raw power rating standpoint this game should not be priced in this range. However, when a game gets labeled "important" and a historically strong home court is involved, oddsmakers are more apt to shade their lines in an effort to balance the books. This is truly a fair fight in which the dog has a legit shot of winning outright.
Power Sports
Pacific vs. St. Mary's
Pick: Pacific
Normally, when a team is off a SU loss as a favorite (like St. Mary's here), I might be inclined to back them in a bounce back spot. But the Gaels aren't your "normal" team. Prior to losing 67-64 (were -8) at Pepperdine Saturday, they'd gone a perfect 12-0 ATS. So the odds are likely to continue catching up with them.
Pacific is not a good team and is off a rare win, 60-58 over Loyola Marymount, as 3.5-point dogs Saturday. That should give you some pause, but again this recommendation is all about fading St. Mary's, who now finds itself as a substantial favorite due to all the covering they've done so far. Pacific might be only 4-11 straight up this season, but they are 7-1 ATS the last eight times they've been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24 points.
The last four meetings between these two have all been decided by 15 points or less, three of them by single digits. Following this game, the Gaels will have a full week off before hosting rival Gonzaga, so there could be a little bit of a "look ahead" in play here. That won't be the case for Pacific, who figures to have a little extra confidence coming off a rare win and is actually playing some pretty good defense in WCC play (opponents shooting just 41.5% against them).
Ian Cameron
Chicago at Montreal
Play: Chicago -120
The Washington Capitals may be playing the best hockey of any team in the NHL right now but the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks are not far behind. Chicago will be looking to make it nine wins in a row tonight as they travel to Montreal to take on the struggling Canadiens in what is a classic tale of hot vs. cold. Chicago has outscored the opposition 32-17 during its current 8-game winning streak and with a win tonight, head coach Joel Quenneville will move into 2nd place on the NHL all-time winningest coaches list. Chicago’s offense has always been potent but it has been especially firing on all cylinders as of late with Patrick Kane (12 points in last 10 games), Artemi Panarin (8 points in last 10 games) and captain Jonathan Toews (11 points in last 10 games) all on very strong offensive streaks right now. Corey Crawford has been razor sharp in net and was especially brilliant in their 3-2 win against Nashville on Tuesday night turning aside 41 of 43shots. His track record against Montreal has been excellent notching a 3-0-2 career record with a 1.38 goals against average. Crawford stopped all 28 shots he faced in his last start against the Canadiens which was a 5-0 Blackhawks win at the Bell Centre back in November of 2014. Montreal has been on a horrendous 4-13 slide over its last 17 games since early December. Goal scoring has been a major issue and that combined with not having Carey Price in net has contributed to a lengthy tailspin for the Habs. Things aren’t great off the ice for the team either especially after center Alex Galchenyuk was caught in a recent domestic violence dispute with his girlfriend who was arrested in the process. Montreal’s four wins since early December have come against New Jersey, Tampa Bay (when dealing with injuries), Boston (in the Winter Classic without Brad Marchand and David Krejci) and Ottawa. They haven’t beaten any elite teams during that stretch and certainly not any that are as healthy or playing as well as Chicago. This is a cheap price to support the surging Blackhawks.
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona State -8.5
All rankings are Ken Pomeroy's unless otherwise noted.
The Sun Devils (#63) are off three straight losses to start Pac 12 play. They lost at home to in-state rival Arizona (#16), followed by back-to-back road losses by 10 points at USC (#19), and by 7 at UCLA (#68). Now Arizona State not only gets to come back home, but they also step down in class tonight.
Washington State's only true road game this season resulted in a 4-point loss at Idaho (#205). That's not a good sign when heading out on the road to face a very motivated conference opponent.
While Arizona State has played the 15th toughest schedule this season according to Jeff Sagarin, the Cougars have played #159. It will show tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Philadelphia
Play: Chicago -7.5
Fred Hoiberg did not allow his Bulls to get caught in a Philly trap earlier this season, as Chicago took care of business in both previous romps past Sixers. This week's likely return of Joakim Noah from his shoulder injury gets Chicago closer to full strength, though some observers wonder if Noah's return will put a kink into what had been a percolating offense in a 6-game win streak prior to last Saturday's loss at Atlanta. We don't dismiss the possibility, but are still very reluctant to back Sixers, especially at home, where they are just 5-11 vs. number.
Wunderdog
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois
Pick: Eastern Kentucky -3
Eastern Kentucky has 11 wins on the season, winning three of the last four, including a 79-70 win at Austin Peay as a +2 dog. Defense has been the catalyst, lowering their points allowed by 12 per game during the last four contests. Eastern Kentucky took the lead with an 18-0 run in the first half and never looked back on its way to an 88-69 win over Southeast Missouri last Saturday. They have a star in senior Jarelle Reischel (20.2 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game), who ranks in the top 10 in the Ohio Valley Conference in almost every major category, including tops in scoring. They face a struggling Eastern Illinois (4-12) squad that has dropped six in a row. The Panthers are 15-39-1 ATS against a team with a winning straight-up record, as well as 5-22-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And Eastern Kentucky is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Eastern Illinois.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday is the underdog Pitt Panthers to keep it close at Louisville this evening in ACC action.
Jamie Dixon's team has struggled when playing against the Redbirds, as Louisville is on a 6 game series winning streak, and they have also covered in the last pair of wins, and 4 of those 6 wins overall.
Perhaps the 13-3 Cards extend those series numbers, but Rick Pitino's team is coming off a road loss at Clemson, and they have failed in each of their last 5 games against the spread.
The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 against the spread on the road so far, and they are fresh off an upset win at Notre Dame.
Think this is too many points.
Go with Pitt.
2* PITTSBURGH
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Cal Santa Barbara at CAL POLY (-3')
The STORYLINE in this game today - Cal Poly returns home to play its first game inside Mott Athletics Center in 40 days, and it'll be quite a homecoming against a downtrodden Santa Barbara team that just lost in Hawai'i. I'm not sure how in the hell the Gauchos dropped that one, but it doesn't help having to go to San Luis Obispo.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is revenge. Matter of fact, it's triple-revenge. Believe it or not, Santa Barbara is the most frequent opponent in Cal Poly's program history, and the Gauchos won all three games last year versus the Mustangs, including a 54-50 Big West Tournament quarterfinal matchup. Santa Barbara has won four of the last five matchups at Cal Poly and 10 and the last 13 overall games. Tonight will be different.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Mustangs will get plenty of offense, as they're ranked second in the Big West with 75.4 points per game. Cal Poly's scoring average is not just the highest average under seventh-year coach Joe Callero, and just the second time the past nine years the Mustangs have averaged more than 70 points in a season. Lay the cheap home chalk.
4* CAL POLY
Chris Jordan
The No. 1 thorn in Lebron James' side has been the San Antonio Spurs. Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the one team that has seemingly gotten the best of King James and whichever team he was playing for at the time.
This is being heralded as a matchup that could be a preview the 2016 NBA Finals. The red-hot Spurs look to extend their regular season home streak to 32 wins against the Cavaliers.
I think the Spurs win a close one, but a game that ends at the end, with a game-winning shot, or late free throws that push the lead to four.
Kyrie Irving has sparked a Cavalier offense, and Cleveland has been much better, sporting a 9-1 mark since his return. The Cavaliers are also becoming much more dominating in their wins with him back.
That spells out C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E. And that's what we're going to see tonight.
Take the underdog here, as we're in store for another game.
3* CLEVELAND
Scott Delaney
Golden State had a shot last night, when the Warriors got 20 fourth-quarter points from Steph Curry. But the defending champs lost in Denver. And now the Los Angeles Lakers are going to pay the price.
Sad to say that, but that's how it works.
After losing in Milwaukee, on Dec. 18, the Warriors responded with a 128-103 win at home against the Phoenix Suns.
After losing in Dallas, on Dec. 30, the Warriors responded with a 114-110 win in Houston.
Now the Warriors are in after a tough-to-swallow 112-110 loss to the Nuggets, and Golden State gets to take out the frustration of a loss on one of the worst teams in the league.
When the Lakers lost to the Warriors on Jan. 5, 109-88, it was Klay Thompson who led Golden State's scoring, with 36 points. Tonight I expect Curry to go off.
Take the home team here.
5* GOLDEN STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Lakers-Warriors contest.
Yes, the Warriors did play Over the total last night in Denver, but the quick turnaround tonight suggests to me that the points many not be as plentiful tonight at home against the offensively-challenged Lakers.
Both prior meetings this season between the teams have easily held Under the total, as Los Angeles has only mustered 88 and 77 points in those games.
The Lakers come into Oaktown having played Overs in their last pair, and 5 of their last 7 overall.
Golden State will head back out on the road after this game, so look for them to do just enough to get the job done, while holding LA at heel once again.
Third meeting of the season, third Under of the season for the Lakers and Warriors.
4* L.A. LAKERS-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
ASA
Oral Roberts vs. IUPU
Play: IUPU -2½
We’ve been really tuned into this IUPUI team this year and they’ve done very well for us. As we’ve mentioned in previous games, they are vastly under rated. Their record shows 7 wins and 12 losses, however that is mainly due to the brutal schedule they have played. They’ve already faced Marquette, NC State, Purdue, Creighton, Memphis, and Butler, all away from home! Those games have more than prepared this team for conference play (now 3-1 in the Summit) as their opponents from this point on are nowhere near as talented as many of the teams they’ve already faced this season. Speaking of away from home, this IUPUI team has only played 4 home games this entire season and they are a perfect 4-0 in those games. That includes a 7 point win one week ago here vs the top team in the Summit League, South Dakota State. We were on IUPUI in that game for an easy win and we’re back on them tonight. Oral Roberts comes in at 9-9 but they are on a big time downward trend losing 7 of their last 8 games. They are 1-8 this season on the road with their only win coming by 2 points. ORU is bound to be “road weary” as this is their 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. The Golden Eagles are a bad defensive team allowing 1.10 PPP (318th nationally) that looks as though their ridiculous travel schedule has them running out of gas. We’ll take a surging IUPUI team laying this small number at home.