Art Aronson
Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
The Stars opened the season by going 11-2-1 on the road, but they've since gone just 1-4-3 away from friendly confines while giving up an average of 3.9 goals. Dallas has in fact surrendered six goals in its last two road games, which doesn't bode well for the team with games at San Jose on Saturday and Los Angeles on Tuesday. To make matters worse, Dallas' vaunted offensive unit has gone ice cold of late, totalling just five tallies in the last three games. Goaltender Antti Niemi has lost four straight on the road and has a poor .857 save percentage in his last three; Kari Lehtonen is 0-1-0 with a 7.67 GAA in his last three road starts. The power play has also been a glaring weak point for the Stars, going just 2 for 34 in its last 13 road games. The Ducks will be looking to take advantage and to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement as the Stars won both trips to Anaheim last your and posted a 4-3 home victory on October 27th. The Ducks are 3-2-0 on a season-high eight-game homestand and come in off a 4-1 win over Ottawa on Wednesday. After a slow start to the season, Anaheim has looked a lot better of late, they've scored at least three goals three times during the current homestand and have surrendered 14 non-shootout goals during a 6-2-1 stretch. Note that Ducks goaltender Frederik Andersen has posted a 1.76 GAA over his last four starts. We definitely think the DUCKS are worth a second look in this spot and at this price.
BRANDON LEE
Cal -3.5
The betting public is all over Stanford as a home dog, but I think all the value here is with the Golden Bears. Cal is going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Oregon (65-68) and Oregon State (71-77). Stanford is 2-2 in league play with a win at home over Utah, but lost badly last time out in a 13-point defeat at Oregon. The Cardinal are a quality team but Cal is one of the most underrated teams in the country and one that is only going to keep getting better as the season progresses. Golden Bears are 37-19 ATS in their last 56 road games off a conference road loss and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 off 2 straight conference losses.
Harry Bondi
CONNECTICUT -1 over Tulsa
Tulsa has had a good season so far beating teams ranked lower than them. But the Hurricanes have really struggled with Top 35 teams, like Uconn, going 1-4 both straight up and ATS. Their only Top 35 win was against a Wichita State team in December when the Shockers were playing without their best player Fred Van Leet. Meanwhile, Uconn has been playing well winning 6 of their last 7. UConn guard Sterling Gibbs seems to have finally found his stroke and scored a season high 26 points in the Huskies last game, a win against Memphis. Huskies Howl!
Vegas Butcher
Sacramento Kings +2
The Jazz are really missing a lot of talent right now as Favors and Burks are injured and Exum is out for the year. They are especially susceptible at the point-guard position, as Lillard dominated the game last night scoring 21 very efficient points (8 for 14) with 10 assists. Tonight they’ll face a combo of Rondo, one of the best assist-men in the game, and Collison, one of the quickest guys in the league. I think Utah will have a tough time guarding them in this one. Another factor to consider is depth. The depleted Jazz team has only 2 reliable options off the bench in Burke and Booker. Kings have guys like Casspie, Collison, Belinelli, WCS, Koufos, and even Seth Curry. Playing on a b2b, this could be a factor in the second half of this one. Speaking of playing on a b2b, both teams are in a similar boat here in that term. But looking closer, we see that this is Utah’s 4th game in 6 nights, while it’s Sacramento’s 3rd in the same time-span. Even more to the Kings’ advantage is the fact that this is their first road game since 01/05. So basically for the last 9 days they’ve been at home, playing 3 home games during this time. Utah, on the other hand, has traveled to every single game since 01/05. They played @ SAS on the 6th, @ HOU on the 7th, back home on the 9th, @ LA on the 10th, @ POR yesterday, and now had to travel back home for tonight’s game. That’s the 6th consecutive game that they’ve had to travel TO in order to play. Traveling is not easy and when you have one team that has done significantly less of it in a particular matchup, fatigue could very well be a strong factor. I believe the Kings have a significant physical advantage due to this. I expect them to get the job done.
Bruce Marshall
Drexel +10.5
Hofstra and its three-pronged backcourt (Gs Juan'ya Green, Ameen Tanksley, and Brian Bernardi, all 15 ppg or better) looking like a serious threat in the Colonial. But Bruiser Flint once again has his Drexel side mucking up the proceedings, as the Dragons have covered 4 of their last 5. Bruiser seems to have finally uncovered a legit interior scoring threat in recent weeks with rugged 6-7 jr. PF Rodney Williams tallying 17 ppg last four, so the Dragons might not lose contact on Long Island.
Ken Thomson
Towson -3.5
You can still lay minus 3 at several places in Vegas and a couple off shore joints. Towson is a pretty good team and they were able to knock off a solid William & Mary on the road, the same team that just pummeled Northeastern by 18 points at home. Adala Moto, the transfer from Wake Forest is a great find and should continue to dominate in the Colonial while PG Byron Hawkins needs to facilitate the ball more. Mike Morsell has picked up where he left off as a freshman and the Tigers should get back on track after getting beat at James Madison 73-59. The Tigers were woeful from the floor and should come out focused in one of the Colonial road games they should win. Delaware has dropped 7 straight including both home games to James Madison & NC Wilmington by double digits...I see Towson by double digits as well.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – THE CITADEL (+4½) over Wofford
The Citadel have a good match up today given that they attempt 36 3-point shots per game and are facing a Wofford team that ranks 345th out of 351 teams in 3-point defense (41.9% allowed). The Citadel will get more open shots than normal and their average game rating in 4 games against teams with really bad 3-point defenses is 6 points higher than their overall average rating. My ratings favor Wofford by just 3½ points and the good match up adds line value. I’ll lean with the Bulldogs at +4 points or more and I’ll play The Citadel in a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
MICHIGAN STATE (-8½) over Iowa
Iowa beat Michigan State 83-70 a couple of weeks ago but the Spartans were without All-American Denzel Valentine and the Hawkeyes outshot the Spartans 46% to 23% from beyond the 3-point arc. Valentine returned to action last weekend and it’s unlikely that Iowa will be as fortunate from long range here in East Lansing. There aren’t too many coaches with a better revenge record than Tom Izzo, who is 31-15 ATS in conference same-season revenge games, including 17-3 ATS if he’s had 3 or more days off to prepare his team. Izzo is even better when he as the superior team, as he’s 20-2 ATS in conference same-season single revenge when favored by 4 points or more (19-0 ATS if not favored by more than 11). Iowa is a very good team but Michigan State is better on both sides of the floor and this time they’ll be playing with one of the best players in the nation on the court rather than sitting on the bench in street clothes. My ratings favor the Spartans by 9 ½ pointsI’ll take Michigan State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 or better.
Southern Miss (+4½) over FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Florida Atlantic has just 1 win all season against a Division 1 opponent (and also lost at home to non-D1 school Warner) and the Owls’ level of play has gotten even worse since losing big man C.J. Turman, who lead the team in rebounding while making 51% of his shots (for a team that is just 39% FG for the season). Southern Miss is a bad team too, but at least the Eagles have won 3 games against Division 1 opponent ranked higher than FAU. My ratings favor Florida Atlantic by just 3 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win over Old Dominion sets them up in a solid 94-38-1 ATS road underdog momentum situation. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 1-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
ST. MARY’S (-19) over Pacific
St. Mary's is now 12-1 ATS after their 64-67 loss at Pepperdine in which the Gaels shot an uncharacteristically low 41% from the field and 30% from 3-point range. St. Mary’s leads the nation in effective field goal percentage, ranking in the top 5 in both 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting and I expect the Gaels to rebound with a good defensive effort tonight against a defensively poor Pacific team. St. Mary’s has only had two sub-par shooting nights all season, as they’ve shot 48% or better in 13 of their 16 games with the only exceptions being 42% shooting at Cal (who leads the nation in 2-point defense), 42% shooting versus Utah Valley and Saturday’s game at Pepperdine. St. Mary’s made 60% of their shots in a 30 point win (as an 8 ½ point favorite) over Cal Poly after that Cal game and they made 56% of their shots in an 11 point win (as a 7 point favorite) against BYU after the poor shooting game against Utah Valley. The Gaels’ average scoring margin at home is +24.4 points and their average opponent in those games is a bit better than Pacific. I’ve been on St. Mary’s a lot this season and I’ll go to the well again. I’ll take St. Mary’s in a 1-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less.