Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oregon Ducks pk
Bottom Line: Oregon's upset loss to rival Oregon State and Arizona State's blowout win over Washington State sets up a very profitable situation tonight. In fact, plays on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite against an opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll make a wager on this 77.8% system for 1 Unit tonight. Take the Ducks.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Seton Hall +7
Seton Hall, with 4 returning starters, isn't getting the respect it deserves with this line, especially since Georgetown is only 1-10 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Georgetown is just 5-19 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Another big reason why the Hoyas won't cover this number is because the Pirates won't help them out enough by turning the ball over. Georgetown is just 1-10 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
Bryan Leonard
Cleveland at Utah
Nobody in the league is playing better ball than the Cavaliers right now. They have looked especially good when facing quality opposition on the road. They match up very well with Utah having covered 10 of the last 11 games in this series. They are 5-1 straight up against Utah and the Jazz home court which was once terrific is less dominant. In the last four meetings in Utah Cleveland is 2-2 straight up with the losses being by 1 and 2 points.Cleveland is 13-4 straight up against the Western Conference this year as they have the ability to run with the faster paced teams out west. They've already won at the Lakers and Blazers in the past three weeks, two teams better than what they face tonight.
PLAY CLEVELAND
JR TIPS
Cavaliers at Jazz
LeBron James dominated the post finding the Cavs another way to win their last game and go for a fifth straight victory over the Jazz tonight in Salt Lake City. Utah is averaging a league best 25.8 assist this season led by Deron Williams with 9.7 per game as they are moving the ball better right now than they have all season. The Cavaliers have averaged 23.2 assists going 10-2 since Dec. 21 st as they are 18-0 when getting 22 or more and have won their last 12 in which James had at least eight himself. James had 41 points in a 106-94 victory at Portland on Sunday and then added 37 points to his 11 assists in a 117-114 win over Golden State on Monday as much of his scoring came on back-downs in the paint shooting 53.3 percent over his last nine games. Utah scores 46.3 per game in the paint and outscored their past two opponents 108-58 on the interior as the Jazz had 28 assists and five turnovers in a 111-93 win at Dallas on Saturday and 28 and nine in a 118-89 blowout of Miami on Monday. Utah lost 107-103 s at Cleveland on Nov 14 th and fourth straight in this series although they did not have Williams in that game along with Kyle Korver. Shaquille O'Neal and Delonte West were out for the Cavs in that game as labron James has averaged 32.8 points, 10.0 boards and 9.4 assists in Cleveland's past five games against the Jazz. The Jazz are playing with exceptional ball movement right now averaging more assist than any team in the league which has created easy shots and a lot of points. They have a rematch tonight against the Cavs facing them on the last game of their road trip. These two teams scored 110 points in Cleveland with Deron Wiliams leading the a Jazz and the way the Jazz are sharing the ball along with Labron James sharing the ball with his teammates, we will see even more than 110 points scored again tonight as this total is way too low.
Pick: Take Over 195 and lean towards Utah -1
Karl Garrett
Arkansas at MISS STATE -14
For Thursday, the G-Man says to lay the points with Miss State as they lay waste to the skidding Hogs of Arkansas.
Arkansas has dropped 3 straight heading into Starkville, as they are now below .500 for the season, and are winless away from home at 0-3, while failing 2 of 3 against the spread.
Mississippi State has been rolling strong, winning 10 of their last 11 straight up, and they have also covered in 8 of their last 9 against the spread.
In the series, the Bulldogs have won and covered the last 3 meetings, and they are on a 10-3 series spread run the last 13 times they have faced the Razorbacks.
This one looks like "blowout city, baby!"
Take the Bulldogs to hammer the Hogs.
4♦ MISS STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at OREGON STATE -5
I'm on a 48-21 run with my FREE selections, including 25-7 over the last 32 days, and tonight I've got a comp winner coming on the college hardwood with Oregon State as the Beavers host Arizona in a Pac-10 matchup.
The Beavers are about to end an eight-game losing streak to the Wildcats and do so in a big way today in Corvallis, Ore.
Oregon State is 5-3 at home this season with wins over Fresno and Colorado already under their belts at home. They were at rival Oregon on Sunday and scored a 64-57 upset victory as 8 ½-point underdogs. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four lined games and 8-2 ATS in their 10 lines games this season.
Arizona has split its first two Pac-10 series this year, one series on the road and one at home last weekend. They went to USC and lost by six as an 8 ½-point ‘dog and then followed it up with a 77-63 win at UCLA as a six-point underdog.
The Wildcats are on ATS slides of 0-5 after a straight-up win and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road ‘dog of up to 6 ½ points. Meanwhile, Oregon State is on ATS runs of 14-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 in Pac-10 games, 13-3 after a straight-up win and 5-2 on Thursdays. In this conference rivalry, the home team is on an 8-3 ATS run.
Look for this one to be loud and wild as Oregon State is going to end this conference losing streak to the Wildcats. Lay the chalk with the Beavers.
2♦ OREGON STATE
Chris Jordan
Chicago +7 at BOSTON
Big win for the Celtics last night, if you consider playing against the Nets a game. The halftime lead was 71-35, so you tell me how much Boston had to work last night.
Tonight, the tables turn, as Boston will have its hands full with a team that has shown its mettle when the Celtics are without Kevin Garnett, who is supposed to miss his eighth straight game.
The Bulls, facing the Garnett-less Celtics in the playoffs last season, pushed Boston to the brink of elimination in that memorable series. Tonight, well-rested, they're going to push the C's to a potential sixth loss in 11 games.
Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace and Rajon Rondo have all missed time over the past 2-1/2 weeks, and it's starting to take its toll against higher caliber teams, such as Chicago, which had last night off and rolls in with double-revenge from this season.
Boston overpowered the Bulls in a 118-90 victory on Oct. 30, and had seven players in double figures in a 106-80 win in Chicago on Dec. 12.
But the Bulls come to Beantown off back-to-back wins - Saturday, 110-96, over Minnesota, and Monday against Detroit, 120-87.
I realize the Bulls have dropped 10 of 11 away from Chicago and are 3-13 on the road this season, but they're on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog and 6-0 versus Eastern Conference foes.
Plus, with the road team on a 7-2 spread streak in this clash, I think I'm good playing the underdog here.
3♦ CHICAGO BULLS
California -3' at WASHINGTON STATE
There are plenty of impressive records and stats in the Pac 10 thus far, I realize this, and it's going to be hard-pressed to find road chalk covering that much in conference play.
But tonight, it's one of those rare opportunities. Cal, led by four senior starters, is going to handle the Cougars with ease to improve to 3-1 in conference play.
I know the Bears venture onto the road for the first time in conference play, but their experience is going to be key this season, including tonight, to help them contend for the Pac 10 title.
Remember, this is a Cal team that was favored by some to win the Pacific 10, and rightfully so; it is poised, it executes well, it takes high-percentage shots, it defends tenaciously. Most importantly, these players know how to stay in ball games.
That's how it works when you return 93 percent of your scoring from the year prior, not to mention the four starters, plus the top two reserves and two all-conference players.
Last year the Bears finished third. This season they want the crown.
And to win the title, you have to win on the road. It begins, for Cal, tonight in Pullman.
4♦ CALIFORNIA
Stephen Nover
Gonzaga at ST. MARY'S -3'
Gonzaga is averaging 78.6 points per game. St. Mary's is scoring at an 82.5 points per game clip. Both teams shoot nearly 50 percent from the floor.
The teams play fast the entire game.
This is reflected in a number of over trends. They include: Gonzaga going over in 21 of its last 29 road contests and St. Mary's going above the total in 16 of its last 21 home contests.
The over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Gonzaga has been an underdog, while the over is 18-7-1 in St. Mary's last 26 games.
Freshman Elias Harris has stepped up recently for Gonzaga averaging 18.5 points in his last four games while providing another scoring option for the Bulldogs.
3♦ OVER
Brett Atkins
I'm now 4-1 on the college hardwood the last five nights after nailing Wednesday night's winner on UNLV as they won and covered at home against San Diego State. Today I've got another one coming as I go with Fullerton at home over Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.
Fullerton, playing inside tiny Titan Gym, is a tough team to beat. Tonight, have no hesitation laying the chalk as the Titans will roll to a 16 point win, at least.
The problem for Cal Poly SLO is it doesn’t score enough points on the road, managing just 66.7 points a game in the opponents gym. Meanwhile, Fullerton puts up 82 points a game at home and collects more than seven more rebounds a game than normal.
The Titans have three guys in Aaron Thompson, Gerard Anderson and Bryce Webster that have the ability to go for a big night, while realistically, only Lorenzo Keeler can score at will for Cal Poly. Everyone else needs a lot of help to put the ball in the basket.
Fullerton has won three of the last four matchups (3-1 ATS) and four of the last six have been decided by 10 points or more.
The Titans have won five straight at home this season and they are a whopping 48-23 ATS in their last 71 games against teams with losing records. Cal Poly is on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 7-21-1 against Big West Conference squads and 1-4 on Thursdays.
Lay the chalk and play the Titans to win this one big!
3♦ FULLERTON
Joel Tyson
3-0 this week with my comp plays, as Atlanta covers by the hook last night in the NBA.
"Revenge"!
That is the cry at the Hinkle Fieldhouse tonight as Cleveland State comes calling on a Butler team that they defeated in the Horizon League tournament last March right on this very hardwood.
Butler has shaken off their funk, and have rattled off 4 wins in a row, and tonight they catch the Vikes sans last season's dynamic backcourt duo of Jackson and Bullock.
As a result, the Vikings of Cleveland State are just 7-10 for the season straight up, and 4-9 against the spread their last 13 lined games.
This line is inflated due to the revenge factor, but I am laying it any way,
4♦ BUTLER
Pete Angelo
Denver (+1') at UL Lafayette
One th13-1 start in NAIA ing is for sure right now down South, college basketball isn't all that good in Louisiana.
Unless of course you play for LSU-Shreveport, which is 13-1 in NAIA play. So while we'll likely never see a line on the Pilots, we do have the opportunity to fade any other team from the Bayou State.
Tonight that'll be the Ragin Cajuns, who recently announced a paltry 1,235 paid attendance for a Sun Belt game, their smallest home crowd in decades.
Tonight they host Denver after taking a week off since beating North Texas, which was missing two starters for the game. The win snapped a five-game losing streak, not to mention two inside the Cajundome.
Lafayette is 5-10 overall, and isn't exactly surviving an injury-plagued campaign, as frontcourt threat Courtney Wallace (knee) and swingmen Corey Bloom and La’Ryan Gary (feet) remain sidelined while guard Ryan McCoy (academic) is gone for the year.
Meanwhile, the Pioneers come into this one having won six of their last eight and with a 12-5 mark overall and 5-1 record in Sun Belt Conference play. It's no surprise to me how well they've been playing, as there's plenty of experience on this Denver team.
Denver returned nine players - including all five starters - plus 98 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season.
Behind senior guard captain Nate Rohnert, look for Denver to win this one by double digits.
1♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
Take BYU minus the points at Air Force in college hoops action on Wednesday.
You’ll learn soon enough that the Mountain West Conference is a top-heavy league this year (just like it was in football). There are four legitimate contenders for the title (BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State), with a fifth (Utah) that could beat any of those four teams on a given night (especially if playing in Utah).
Air Force falls into the also-ran category, as the Falcons just don’t have the talent once again this year. That shows in their mediocre 8-7 record, which includes two recent road losses to conference bottom-feeders Colorado State (70-48 on Saturday) and TCU (59-50 a week ago). Air Force also has lost to Northern Colorado at home (70-46), Northern Arizona at home (60-52), as well as Missouri State. The Falcons’ signature win this year? Does UC Davis or Charleston Southern count?
BYU has won eight straight meetings in this rivalry (6-2 ATS), including three straight wins and covers in Colorado Springs (the last two by scores of 71-50 and 69-53). The Cougars come into this contest at 16-1, including a current 11-game winning streak, and they’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite. Air Force is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 as a home underdog.
4♦ BYU
Wunderdog
Gonzaga at St. Marys
Pick: St. Marys -4
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have ruled the roost in the West Coast Conference, but a new player has been developing and emerging, and looks to have the upper hand here. The Gaels have been knocking on the door, but this looks to be the year they break through. For the first time the Gaels will have had that edge over the Zags as Omar Sanhan will be the best player on the floor. Sanhan is a beast to contend with inside averaging a double-double. He is not alone however. The Gaels’ twin towers also include Ben Allen, and he is at 10 points per game and 8 boards as well as a solid playmaker in Mickey O'Connell dishing out 108 assists to just 44 turnovers. The Bulldogs took a hit from graduation and are still talented, but have lost a ton of experience which will hurt them in this one vs. a team that is hungry to knock them off, and for once has the better team. I'll go with St. Mary's here.
Larry Ness
UTA pk vs CLE
The Cavs continue their five-game road trip with a visit to Salt Lake City, the team's fourth game in five days (will play at the Clippers on Saturday to conclude the trip). Cleveland is 18-5 since Dec 1 and at 30-10 overall, has the best record in the East with only the Lakers' 30-9 mark slightly better among all NBA teams. LeBron (29.4-7.2-7.8), Williams (16.9-5.0 APG) and Shaq (10.7-7.1) are the lone double-digit scorers, with Shaq posting career lows. However, the Cavs own excellent depth and with James penetrating and then dishing, the team's 41.3 percent mark from beyond the three-point line (2nd-best in the league), makes them a dangerous offensive team. The Cavs rank third in points allowed (94.3 PPG) and hold opponents to 43.4 percent from the floor, the lowest of any team in the league. The Jazz have six double-digit scorers led by Williams (19.6-3.9-9.7) and Boozer (19.2-10.4) and also come close to matching the Cavs' depth. The Jazz are an excellent shooting team ass well (48.4 percent ranks 4th) and have always been tough at home (14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS on the year). These teams met in Cleveland back in mid-November with the Cavs winning 107-103, a game in which both teams shot better than 50 percent from the floor. The Jazz played short-handed in that game, as Williams sat out and just seven players were used, six playing 30-plus minutes. The Cavs are in a tough stretch of games right now and while they've beaten the Jazz in the last four meetings between the two teams, they've dropped 15 of their last 19 trips to Salt Lake City! Take Utah.
Spartan
UTA -1 vs CLE
This is a situation where you have the Cavaliers on the back end of a road trip competing in their fourth game in a row. The Jazz have been a money maker when performing in Salt Lake City as they have now covered the number in an impressive 13 of the last 19 games. If you just lean on trends to make your selections then the Cav's are a no brainer here but I like the situation enough to back the Jazz. Boozer and Williams are playing well and I suspect they will want to make a statement here tonight. The Jazz are the typical Jazz guys, Jerry Sloan has a good, solid team that plays very well at home and struggles on the road. They will make the playoffs and then exit prior to making any deep run. I say tonight on TNT at home they come up with a huge effort and defeat King Lebron and company.