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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday January, 17

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Rob Vinciletti

Santa Clara vs. San Francisco
Play: Santa Clara ML

Santa Clara won the first meeting between these two, despite shooting under 40%. Tonight we note they have a solid RPI Ranking at #89 overall and have played the 64 the toughest schedule in the country. They take on a San Francisco team ranked 183rd in the RPI. Santa Clara has won and covered 3 of the last 4 as a road favorite of 3 or less. San Francisco is 1-12 straight up vs teams who average 77 or more points per game and have lost all 4 conference games, They are 1-6 vs teams ranked in the top 100 RPI Scale and will likely get beat here by a classier Santa Clara team.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:45 pm
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Stephen NoverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clippers / Timberwolves Over 192.5
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Minnesota is home from a disastrous 0-4 road trip. Maybe it's because of their multiple injuries, which have zapped morale and confidence, but the Timberwolves have stopped playing defense. They have surrendered at least 102 points during each of their past six games. Minnesota is allowing 104.9 points during its past nine games and ranks last this month in defensive field goal percentage.
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The Clippers have the offense and depth to take full advantage even if Chris Paul doesn't play. The Clippers rank seventh in scoring averaging 102.1 points a game and are fourth in field goal percentage. Eric Bledsoe has done a nice job filling in for Paul, who has been out with a knee injury.
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The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the league. The Timberwolves are short-handed due to injuries and illness. Minnesota practiced with just eight healthy bodies on Wednesday having to force their two assistant coaches to suit up in order to go 5-on-5.
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It's tempting to also play the Clippers, too, in this matchup. But the Clippers are in a flat spot having won the first two games of their current three-game road swing with impressive victories against much tougher foes Houston and Memphis. The Clippers knocked off those two opponents by a combined 34 points. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to take the short-handed Timberwolves fully serious even though this game is on national television.
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It can't be too fun for Los Angeles to be in Minneapolis in mid-January so the Clippers' full defensive concentration might not be there. It's the Clippers' third game in four days while the Timberwolves last played on Monday. Minnesota also has won seven of its last nine home contests.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:47 pm
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Oregon -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yes, this is beyond a "square" play (yawn) those do cash too you know.......Anyways, you will hear the ol' "USC will be up/motivated/etc" for their 1st game with a "new head coach". Yes, they most certainly will be, but this Ducks team will be trying their best too, no??? Oregon has major advantages vs this USC team IMO, and I simply have the Ducks winning this game by 6 points tonight, and am going to ignore the noise on USC, and fire the Oregon Ducks tonight.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:47 pm
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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lakers/ Miami Under 206.5: This has not been a high scoring series of late as the last 4 between these teams have averaged just 179.8 ppg. The Heat come in playing excellent defense as they have allowed just 89.1 ppg in their last 7 games.On the road this year the Heat have allowed 98.2 ppg, but just 91.4 ppg in the first 5 games of this road trip, an that includes allowing just 75 points last night to a high scoring Golden State squad. Defense has been the focus of the Lakers of late and they have responded by allowing just 90.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Most of the Lakers defensive problems have been on the road, as they have allowed just 97.1 ppg at home on the year. This home games this year have averaged 199.3 ppg, while Miami road games have averaged 196.5 ppg. Let's also note that Miami's last 5 overall have averaged 188.2 ppg. I just do not expect this game to each 200 points, let alone 207.
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LA Clippers/ Minnesota Over 192.5: The T-wolves have really been struggling at the defensive end of late, as they have aallowed 104.8 ppg in their last 9 games. That's more than enough bad defense for a Clippers squad that averages 1021 ppg overall and 99.1 on the road to put up plenty of points on them. The Clippers do play solid defense, but have allowed 100+ points in 2 of their last 3 games and 5 of their last 8. Minnesota is struggling with injuries and it has hurt their offense of late (as well as their defense) but they still have averaged a solid 97.6 ppg at home. Thanks mainly to a up 1bad Minnesota defense this game should have little trouble in putting up 195+.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:49 pm
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Miami +116 over L.A. LAKERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lakers are favored here because Miami will play its third road game in four days, its sixth road game in nine nights and the tail-end of back-to-backs after playing in Golden State last night. That's not going to deter us. The Heat have been on cruise control all season, yet they still possess the best record in the East. When playoffs roll around, they won't be burned out and they're not burned out for games like this. This is a nationally televised, TNT Thursday night game against the Lakers that will get their juices flowing. That's all the incentive we need to back them here taking back a tag against the slow, banged up, inferior and grossly overvalued host.
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San Jose State +15 over DENVERFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pioneers are favored in this range because of two suspended San Jose players that include the teams' leading scorer, James Kinney. Without Kinney, the Spartans traveled to conference leader Utah State in their last game and lost by six. SJSU is deep, they're solid on the boards and they've been battle tested with games at #10 Kansas (a 13-point loss) and of course the aformentioned game at Utah State. Surely, they can compete here.
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Denver is 5-1 in the conference but the teams they've defeated are a combined 5-22 in the conference. They have the Aggies of Utah State on deck on Saturday in what will be their biggest game of the year to that point. The Pioneers average just 62 points per game while ranking at 345 out of 347 Division I teams in rebounding. That's not conducive to spotting this many points against an equal and the most undervalued squad in the WAC

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:51 pm
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Phoenix Suns -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While the Suns have been struggling of late with just two wins in their last 14 games, I like their chances of beating the Bucks at home tonight. Prior to their most recent loss against the Thunder, Phoenix went into Chicago and beat the Bulls 97-81. The Suns poor play has been a result of a brutal schedule. 8 of their last 14 games have been on the road and four of their six home games have come against the likes of the Clippers, Knicks,Grizzlies and Thunder.
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Believe it or not, the Suns have won 24 straight in this series when playing in Phoenix. The Bucks lost 88-104 on the road against the Lakers in their last game, dropping them to 2-10 ATS vs the Western Conference this season. With the Suns coming off two full days of rest and the Bucks playing their 3rd straight road game, I look for Milwaukee to struggle to keep this game close.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:51 pm
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Milwaukee hasn't been victorious in Phoenix in nearly 26 years. It has dropped 24 straight in Phoenix since the NBA's all-time leader in coaching victories, Don Nelson, was on the bench for a 115-107 win Feb. 21, 1987. The Suns come in motivated for a win after dropping six of their last seven against a brutal schedule that has featured the Jazz, Grizzlies, Bucks, Celtics, Nets, Bulls and Thunder. They are also well-rested having not played since Monday. The Bucks dropped to 19-40-1 ATS in their last 60 vs. Western Conference opponents after falling 88-104 to the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. The Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:52 pm
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Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Los Angeles Clippers are overvalued heading into this road contest against the Minnesota Timberwolves. They have won back-to-back games over the Grizzlies and Rockets without Chris Paul thanks to some terrific shooting as they've averaged nearly 50% in those two wins.
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Teams can play well without their star for a few games, but over time it proves to be detrimental more times than not. Paul is doubtful and expected to sit once again tonight, and I'm banking on the Clippers failing to shoot 50% or close to it against the Timberwolves.
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Minnesota comes in highly motivated for a win tonight after going 0-4 in their last four games in a brutal road trip. They lost on the road to the Thunder, Hornets, Spurs and Mavericks. Now, they return home where they are 10-5 on the season. I certainly like their chances of staying within this 4.5-point spread while likely pulling off the upset in the process.
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The Timberwolves are 17-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet Minnesota Thursday.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:53 pm
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Oregon -3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC snapped a 14-game road losing streak with a 76-59 win at Utah on Saturday, but it wasn't enough to keep coach Kevin O'Neill from being fired. Pat Haden (athletic director) said he made the move to re-energize the team. Even if USC is re-energized, I don't believe it will have enough in the end to get past an Oregon squad that is hitting on all cylinders. The Ducks have won 5 in a row and have shown they can win on the road. They have won at UNLV and Oregon State this season. The Ducks have won 5 straight against USC and have recorded double-digit wins in their last 2 trips to Southern California. USC is 3-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog or pickem over the last 2 seasons. Oregon, meanwhile, is 12-4 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:54 pm
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Jeff Alexander

Northwestern +10.5

Illinois is getting a little too much respect here considering each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 4 points or less with 2 of them being decided by a single point. Illinois is 9-19 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons when it checks into a game with losses in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the Wildcats.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 1:55 pm
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Nelly

St. Joseph's + over VCU

St. Joseph's is in a bit of a challenging scheduling spot with this being a fourth road game in the last five games but that has spanned over two weeks and the travel has not been significant. The Hawks are just 9-5 on the season but they have five road wins, including beating Notre Dame and Drexel away from home. St. Joseph's did lost for Fairfield but the other four losses have come against high quality competition, falling against Florida State, Creighton, Villanova, and Butler with three of those four games being very tight. Virginia Commonwealth is off to a 14-3 start and cruising so far with a perfect 2-0 start in Atlantic 10 play in the first year for VCU in the bigger conference. The Rams have been on cruise control with 11 consecutive wins including notable wins over Belmont and Lehigh in tight games as well as blowing out Alabama. The losses for the Rams are all very respectable, falling to Wichita State, Duke and Missouri but the grind of conference play could catch up to this team despite the promising start. St. Joseph's features an excellent perimeter defense, allowing just 40 percent shooting overall and less than 33 percent shooting from 3-point range. VCU can be 3-point reliant at times and they are not likely to continue to hit at an over 36 percent clip as the schedule stiffens. St. Joseph's will be comfortable playing at a slower pace and the Hawks should potentially have a rebounding edge in this match-up. This is a steep line for the hyped first meeting between these prominent teams and after sneaking out narrow wins in the 2-0 start in conference play against lesser teams, VCU should be in for a battle tonight.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 3:07 pm
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Bob Balfe

Minnesota -2.5

Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 this year and not taking anything away from Michigan, but I think their schedule has not caught up with them yet and they are not the best team in the BIG 10. The last two games their shooting has gone cold against decent teams and I expect the same tonight. Take Minnesota.

LA Lakers -2

The Lakers have been scoring a ton of points as of late and if this game turns into a shootout I favor the Lakers at home. LA is getting healthier didn’t have to play last night like the Heat did. Come 4th quarter in this game I could see the Heat getting a little flat if they have to depend on making jump shots to match L.A Take the Lakers.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 3:08 pm
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Charlie Sports

Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans
Play: Oregon Ducks

The (14-2) Oregon Ducks of the PAC 12 North division will take on the (7-10) USC Trojans of the PAC 12 South division in 2013 College Basketball action. The Oregon Ducks are 10-1 Against The Spread their last 11 on the road, the Ducks have also won 9 of their last 10 Basketball games straight up. Oregon has also covered 4 of their last 5 ATS vs. USC. The USC Trojans recently fired their head coach and are 3-1 ATS their last 4. Oregon gets the road cove.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 3:11 pm
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Teddy Covers

Miami vs. L.A. Lakers
Pick: Miami

Eric Spoelstra’s squad really struggled to find their ‘A’ game after Christmas; quite frankly looking bored for extended stretches. They entered last night’s game at Golden State in the midst of a 2-8 ATS slide, including SU losses to the Pistons, Bucks, Bulls, Pacers, Jazz and Blazers during that span.

No surprise, then, that we’re seeing the Heat in a rare underdog role tonight -- the once prohibitive price to support the Heat in the betting markets has declined into a far more reasonable range.

Miami’s lone previous try as an underdog this year? They won outright at Denver without Dwayne Wade in the lineup. And it’s surely worth noting that the Heat have four SU wins in five tries playing on the second night of back-2-backs; a team worthy of support in this spot. Let’s not forget that in last night’s blowout win over the Warriors, head coach Eric Spoelstra was able to rest his starters for the entire fourth quarter, leaving Miami relatively fresh here.

And for some reason, the betting markets are expecting the Lakers to be better with Pau Gasol back on the floor. Gasol has been a shell of his former self all season, and it certainly hasn’t gotten any better in the Mike D’Antoni era. LA went 1-4 SU and ATS in the last five games Gasol played before his concussion, including home losses as chalk against the Nuggets and 76ers.

Yes, LA is enjoying their first two game winning streak since Christmas, knocking off the Cavs and Bucks in their last two games. But facing a Miami team that should be actually motivated to play a marquee opponent on national TV, look for LA’s brief winning streak to end here. Take the Heat.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 4:41 pm
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Bryan Leonard

Troy +7

Quick revenge for the Trojans who just lost a 61-54 home decision to the Owls three weeks ago. That was a special game for the host as they dedicated the court to head coach Don Maestri in honor of he 30+ years of service at the university. Teams having special ceremonies are at a disadvantage after the presentation as the host comes out flat while the visitor focuses on the task at hand. Now off back to back victories we look for Troy to add to its 17-9 ATS record when avenging an in season conference loss.

Florida Atlantic is in the thick of the conference race at 4-3 knowing a win here will tie them for second place in the Sun Belt. But they may have a letdown here after an upset win at Western Kentucky and knowing it has beaten the Trojans 3 of 4 contests the last two seasons with the only loss coming by a single point.

 
Posted : January 17, 2013 4:41 pm
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