Andre Gomes
Clippers / Timberwolves Under 193
The Clippers will be once again without Chris Paul and this isn't a good spot for them, as they played back to back games at Memphis and Houston and now, they had to travel to Minnesota. Therefore, it's normal that the Clippers will show some regression on offense, especially as Minnesota's will have as their gameplan to set this game as a half court game, so Chris Paul will be more missed today than he was in the previous two games. Minnesota's offensive struggles have been tremendous due to their horrible outside shooting and the Clippers's frontcourt defense has been a top 10 team all season long. I expect an ugly game today on a slow paced game, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.
Greg Shaker
Ind.-Pur.-Indpls +13.5
On Paper this looks pretty ugly but the fact is, this is not a bad spot for the guys from Indy and while they may be hard pressed to get an outright win, they have a very good chance of getting the cover. The Bisons are damn good and the best team in the Summit League IMO. But great teams have letdowns and they often do against squads like they are playing tonight, when they have a Bigger Game ontap next. And oh boy do they have a big game next, against Western Illinois on Saturday. That will determine the conference leader for sure. Bisons most likely sleepwalk thru this one and getting the +13.5 should cover more times than not..
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Rutgers/ South Florida Under 123.5: I just don't see this game coming all that close to 120 points. South Florida is 26-10 Under in their last 36 Big East games, while the under is 36-14-1 in Rutgers last 51 home games. USF opened up Big East play with 3 games that averaged just 105 ppg. This is a team that plays at a very slow pace and also plays excellent defense. In their 3 BE games they took on the likes of Louisville and Syracuse and held those two high octane offenses to just 64 and 55 points. For the year the bulls allow just 60.2 ppg on 38.9% shooting overall, including just 58.8 ppg on 39.8% shooting on the road. The Bulls on offense are not that good at all, especially on the road where they have averaged just 53.8 ppg. Rutgers at home averages 72.1 ppg overall, but just 62.5 pg in their 2 BE home games and just 59 ppg in their 4 BE games overall. Defensively the Knights have not been that great (64 ppg at home), but South Florida doesn't pose much of a threat to putting up that kind of number. In the Bulls last 10 games they do have a game that scored 126 points and one that scored 171, but the latter was a 3 OT game and just 122 points were scored in regulation. Other than those two games, the other 8 of USF's last 10 games have seen no more than 121 points scored. Tyhis game should clearly be played in the 50's, with at most 115 points being scored.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oregon -3 over USC: Oregon comes in playing very well and are currently 3-0 in the Pac-12, which has included a road win over Oregon State and a home win over Arizona. The Ducks have won 5 in a row SU (4-1 ATS) the last 5 in the series and they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road, while the Trojans have gone 6-21 ATS in their last 27 road games and 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. Both teams have played good defense this year, but the Ducks get a huge edge on offense, where they are averaging 13 ppg more than USC is. The Trojans are very inconsistent as they have a road win over Utah and a home win vs Stanford on their resume, but they also have Home losses vs UC Irvine and Cal, plus a road loss at Georgia as well. The Ducks just have too much momentum and offense to get slowed down by an inconsistent USC squad here.
Citadel +25 over DAVIDSON: Tough spot for Davidson to get up for this one as they will be taking on a Citadel team that has been blasted on the road this year and they have a huge game vs Charleston on deck Saturday. Classic look-a-head spot here. Now last year on this floor Davidson did win by 29 points, but that is the only time in the last 10 meetings overall that the Wildcats won by more than 21 points. In fact in those last 10 meetings Citadel is 7-3 ATS and have pulled 2 outright upsets, while being outscored by just 9.5 ppg overall and 15.8 ppg in their 8 losses. Davidson is 4-1 at home but that only home loss was to the team they have on deck, givings us another reason to think look-a-head. Citadel has been outscored by 31 ppg on the road, but Davidson has only outscored their opponents by 13 ppg at home. The Wildcats may race out to a big lead here, but will relax enough in the second half to all Citadel to get the cover.
AUSTIN PEAY -5.5 over SIU- Edwardsville: The Govenors may be 5-13 on the year, but they ave not played all that badly. On this home stand they beat Morehead State in OT and lost by just 3 to Murray State. Prior to that their last 3 road games were all defeats by just 2 points in each. This is a team ready for a big win. SIU is 5-9 on the year, but after pulling a shocker in their 2nd game of the year over Western Illinois, they have won just 1 game vs a Division 1 school. SIU is 0-7 on the road and have been outscored by 12.9 ppg in those games. Austin Peay averages 73.2 ppg at home, while SIU puts up just 57.4 ppg on the road. I just don't see SIU coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
Oregon State/ UCLA Under 152: These teams have played 7 combined Pac-12 games this year and just one of those games put up 153. Last year these teams put up 171 points, but the previous 9 in the series had averaged just 125.6 ppg, with only one of those games topping 140 points (147). OSU comes in with 3 Pac-12 games under their belt and those games have averaged just 143 ppg. UCLA has played 4 conference games to date and those have averaged just 133.8 ppg. This after UCLA's last 4 non-conf games put up 166.8 ppg. A big reason for the lower scoring games is that they are playing under control on offense and have played excellent defense, allowing just 63.3 ppg in their last 4 games. OSU has played 1 true road game so far, so the fact that they average 79 ppg on the road holds no water at all. The Beavers have allowed 69.4 ppg on the year, but on just 41.2% shooting, so they can play some defense. Im not expecting a slow paced game, but I do expect the defenses to play good enough to keep this one in the 140's or lower.
Black Widow
Arkansas-Little Rock +15
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to their 14-4 start. This is a quality team, but they should not be favored by 15 over Arkansas-Little Rock (11-8) Thursday. Little Rock is coming off two straight impressive double-digit wins over North Texas (67-53) and Florida international (88-76), yet it still fails to get the respect it deserves from oddsmakers here. Only one of its last six losses have come by more than 15 points, and that was at Cincinnati as a 21-point dog. MTSU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite since 1997. Little Rock is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Raiders are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Take Arkansas-Little Rock and the points.