SPORTS WAGERS
UTAH -2½ over Dallas
Can't imagine for a second how the Mavericks are going to find some energy or focus here to compete. Of all the teams in the Association, no other squad has felt the wrath of the schedule maker like the Mavs. Dallas played in L.A. against the Clippers last night after a game on Monday night. This will be its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. It will also be its seventh game in nine nights. We should also note the time zone change and high altitude in Utah. Talk about the mental makeup of this team after a buzzer beater by Derek Fisher on Monday and again last night as Chauncey Billups sank a 25-foot 3-pointer with one second remaining to give the Mavs back-to-back heartbreaking losses. Dirk Nowitzki hurt his ankle last night and could see limited minutes. Meanwhile, the Jazz can't wait to get back on the floor and face the champs in what will be an amped up house. Utah has won eight of nine. Its only loss over that span came in OT against the Lakers. They're coming off back-to-back wins over the Clippers and Nuggets, the latter in Denver. The Jazz are an exciting young club. The Jazz are rested, they're winning and are in a prime position to take advantage of an exhausted Mavericks’ squad from the get go. Play: Utah -2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
MIAMI -5 over L.A. Lakers
Stephen A. Smith, the outspoken TV, newspaper and radio personailty that has made a name for himself covering the NBA has nicknamed LeBron James “The Frozen One”. LeBron's shortcomings have been well-documented and hugely magnified. This is LeBron's chance to prove otherwise on a Thursday night in which there is just one other NBA game being played (just one later game) at the same time (New Orleans/Houston) and this one. It will be seen by basketballers across the nation on TNT. More than that however, is the public's undying support for Kobe Bryant and the Lakers and that's our focus here. L.A. has just one road win this season. That came in OT against the Jazz. Every other loss on the road by the Lakers was by nine points or more and that includes games against Sacramento and Portland. As for the Heat, they've been at home just five games this season. In those games they were a 9½-point choice over Boston, 14 over Charlotte, 9½ over Atlanta, 7½ over Indiana and 7 over the Spurs (minus D-Wade). In other words, the Heat are underpriced here and that's because they're playing the Lakers. This is a opportunity to cash in on this cheap price against a Lakers club that has proven nothing on the road. LeBron makes a statement here to shut up Smith and other detractors. Play: Miami -5 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Passing NHL
Jack Jones
Illinois -3
Illinois is one of the best teams in the Big Ten this year. The Fighting Illini should be laying a larger number tonight against one of the worst teams in the conference. Penn State stands little chance of keeping this one close Thursday night.
Illinois is off to a 15-3 start this season. What's most impressive is what they have done in conference play here recently. The Fighting Illini have opened 4-1 within the conference, including a huge win over Big Ten favorite Ohio State. Their three losses have all come on the road this season to No. 5 Missouri, No. 14 UNLV and to Purdue. They have only lost one game they were favored in.
Penn State is clearly down this season. The Nittany Lions are 9-10 on the year, including 4-8 ATS in all lined games. They have opened 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in conference play, which includes double-digit losses to Michigan, Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota. This team is simply not on the same level as Illinois.
This play falls into a system that is 63-27 (70%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home teams as an underdog or pick (PENN ST) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 consecutive close wins by 5 or less over a conference rival. The Illini come in with a ton of confidence after their win over Ohio State, and they've had eight days off to prepare for the Nittany Lions. Bet Illinois Thursday.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Virginia/ Georgia Tech Over 111: Virginia has played some real low scoring games of late, but their games this year have still averaged 116.3 ppg , while their road games have averaged 127.3 ppg and their 2 ACC games have hit at least 113 points. Georgia Tech has played a bit higher scoring games as their home games have averaged 130.5 ppg, while their last 5 overall have averaged 135.6 ppg. A nice little system goes with this one as well. Play Over - All teams where the total is 119.5 or less (GEORGIA TECH) if they are after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=40%). This play is 25-5 since 1997. I expect around 120+ in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina -6 over VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies are in a bad spot here after the Heels took a 33 points loss to FSU in their last game after North Carolina breezed through their first 2 ACC games. VA Tech has had some close ones to open up ACC, but they lost all 3. The home team has won the last 4, but after a horrible loss by the Heels in their last game, I expect that trend to turn around. Here is a nice system to support the play. Play against Home teams as an underdog or pick off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more. This play is 43-10 the last 5 seasons.
Tennessee Tech/ Jacksonville Over 130: Gotta believe the home team that's favored by 9 will be able to dictate pace in this one. Tennessee Tech does like to push the ball, especially when they are at home, where 152.1 ppg have been scored. Tech has allowed 75.8 ppg at home home and that should help a bad Jax State (61.8 ppg) get going in this one. JSU has allowed just 64.4 ppg overall, but Tech does average 76.3 ppg at home and in their last 5 overall they have averaged 77 ppg. The pace that TTU will set should have this game approach the 140's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Vanderbilt +6.5 over ALABAMA: VANDERBILT is 16-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons, while ALABAMA is 2-15 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games since 1997.
Boston College/ NC State Under 137: Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points after a close win by 3 points or less, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. This play is 31-11 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Fairfield -5.5 over ST PETERS: FAIRFIELD is 12-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997, while ST PETERS is 3-18 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997.
NHL Predictions
New Jersey Devils +135
The Bruins are coming off a 5-3 loss in Tampa Bay on Tuesday night and have lost 2 of their first three on a 4 game road trip that ends here tonight in New Jersey. The other loss was a 4-2 loss in Carolina as big favorites. The Bruins needed overtime to beat the Panthers on Monday night, and maybe should have lost that one as well. On the other hand we have a hot Devils team who has won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their latest was a 5-1 win on Tuesday against the Jets at home, giving them two straight home victories since their 6-1 loss at home to the Bruins on January 4th. The Devils have won 5 of their last 6 home games and are 12-7-1 at home this season. Brodeur let in 6 goals on 27 shots last time these two teams met, and he will get the start again tonight looking for some revenge. The Bruins haven’t looked on their top game during this mini road trip, while the Devils are playing maybe their best hockey of the year. I’ll take the Devils as a nice sized home underdog.
St Louis Blues -½ -153
The Edmonton Oilers have won just once in their last 7 games and 3 times in their last 16 games. The Oilers will be missing a number of players including Jordan Eberly, rookie sensation Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and most likely Taylor Hall who was injured in warm ups on Tuesday (from taking a skate to the face). Edmonton is just 6-17-1 on the road this season, and are averaging just 1.20 goals per game in their last 5. St Louis has won two straight (both at home) and 6 of their last 7 games. Their only loss was an overtime loss to the Canucks. The Blues are a spectacular 19-3-4 at home this season, where they are holding opponents to just 1.76 goals per game. Over their last 5 the Blues are allowing just 1 goal against per game (with three shutouts). Halak will be in net for the Blues and he is 12-7-5 with a 2.08 GAA and .918 SV%. The Blues are 7-0 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning % below .400 and they have beaten the Oilers in 4 straight games in St Louis. I’ll take one of the leagues best home teams against an average Oilers team who are missing a handful of key players. I’m going to avoid laying a ton of chalk tonight, and will take the Blues to get things done in regulation. Note that In the Blues last 11 home wins they have needed extra time just twice.
Ottawa Senators +155
I’ll be riding the Ottawa Senators again tonight, this time as fairly large sized underdogs. The Senators have lost just twice in their last 11 games, improving to 26-16-6 on the season. The Senators are 12-7-5 on the road this season, and have won 4 straight road games. The Sharks are also playing good hockey winning 7 of their last 9 games, but I don’t think they deserve to be this big of favorites against a hot Sens team. The Sharks are 3-1-1 in their last 5 home game, which includes a 2-1 shootout win against the Flames on Tuesday, a 2-1 win against the struggling Blue Jackets, and two home losses vs Vancouver and Anaheim – nothing too convincing there. The Senators are averaging 3 goals per game on the season, while the Sharks are averaging a slightly lower 2.8 goals per game and 2.40 goals per game over their last 5. The Sens are holding opponents to just 1.40 goals per game in their last 5, with Craig Anderson playing solid between the pipes. Note that Ryan Clowe may miss his second straight game tonight. Both teams are playing good hockey right now, but the oddsmakers aren’t giving enough credit to Ottawa right now. I’ll take the +155 on Ottawa as nice sized underdogs tonight.
Andrew Lange
Illinois at Penn State
Play: Penn State +3.5
It has been quite a turnaround for Illinois of late. Less than a month ago, this team had the look of a .500 team in Big Ten play. But three straight close wins, including a 79-74 victory over Ohio State has the Illini atop the league standings. The win over the Buckeyes was particularly intriguing because Illinois got 43 points from Brandon Paul and as a team shot 60% from the floor and 61% from three. Prior to that, Illinois was hard-pressed to shoot 45% in game. Regardless, off a monster win, and in first place...and with Wisconsin on deck, the Illini take a trip to face 9-10, 1-5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not a good basketball team, but they've shown me enough to think they could give Illinois some trouble. PSU beat Purdue on this floor by 20 and battled Indiana to a six-point loss. Note that Illinois may be 15-3 but winning by margin hasn't come easy. They beat Cornell by four, Minnesota in double OT, Northwestern by one, Nebraska by five and the same against Ohio State. They've had a week to come down off the high of beating OSU, but tonight is a tough spot and a game that should come down to the wire.
Brad Diamond Sports
Virginia Commonwealth over William & Mary
Last year the Rams struggled to beat Bill & Mary in this same building 59-55, laying a fairly decent number. Here, VCU boards 13-5 SU, 4-2 in conference coming off back-to-back wins over James Madison and Delaware. The Rams have lost two difficult key games to Alabama (earlier) and the very talented Georgia State unit. They are holding opponents to 59.7% points per game. William & Mary has won only four games, because of their offensive ineptness scoring less than 60 points per on nine occasions. With the chalk covering 8 of 11 ATS in the series.
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play I'm siding with the Nittany Lions plus the points against the Illini.
Can you say L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Following their huge upset win vs. Ohio State, I'm calling for the Illini to suffer the classic letdown tonight against a scrappy Penn State team in University Park. Illini benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime game from Brandon Paul, who I can assure you will not drop 40+ on the Lions tonight. The fact the game was nine days ago is a momentum killer for Illinois, who I expect will come in overconfident and a bit sluggish.
Penn State meanwhile must get back on track, sitting at 9-10 with 5 losses in their L6 games, this game is absolutely critical for them. Moreover, when you consider their recent slide, why in the hell is a team that's lost 5 of their L6 only a 4-point dog to a team that just beat Ohio State? It makes no sense, unless that is, they're projecting a letdown and trying to entice you to bet the Illini.
Admittingly, Meyers Leonard has a nice match up here against the smallish Nittany Lions. But that being said, as long as the Lions can match up with Brandon Paul (which they do), they will be just fine. Fact is Leonard was lucky not to get into foul trouble last week, but I suspect his foul prone ways will reappear in this contest. Not only that, but Tim Frazier and Jermaine Marshall are also coming off awful shotting games and should be highly motivated for the bounce back here.
Finally, the underdog is 13-3-2 ATS in their L18 meetings, a decent sample size which says a lot about Penn State's prospects here. Remember guys, five of their last eight meetings have been decided by 2 points or less. Long story short, expect Illinois to come crashing back down to Earth tonight. Take Penn State plus the points over Illinois Thursday.
3♦ PENN STATE
Chris Jordan
On the heels of a free winner on Wichita State last night, I'm taking the underdog San Diego Torreros over the Portland Pilots tonight, as I like the number I am seeing with a team that is seemingly improving. I know San Diego is 6-11 overall and 1-4 in West Coast Conference play, but I know how good a coach Bill Grier can be, and what he instills in his players year after year.
Last season was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but it's been this season that has looked rough. Yet even though the Pilots have won five straight, they too have struggled early on, and the team I've noticed responding more is the Torreros. Portland is 5-13 overall with a 2-3 conference mark.
Through 5 WCC games, San Diego has already faced three of the four current top WCC teams (Saint Mary's, Brigham Young twice and Loyola Marymount), so it's no wonder the Torreros have a 1-4 mark. They're certainly going to be tuned up for this game tonight, against a Pilots team that is horrendous with its scoring defense, ranked 323rd in the nation out of 338 ranked teams, allowing 76.8 points per game.
Granted, San Diego stats don't display that much more of an impression, but the Pilots' conference slate has included Santa Clara (9th place), Pepperdine (8th place) and San Francisco (6th place).
This is going to be an ugly game between a pair of cellar dwellers, I admit that. And I know the Pilots get the edge for being at home tonight, but I'm taking the points knowing how Grier coaches his teams, and knowing this is one of those ugly games that could come down to which team is holding the ball last.
1♦ SAN DIEGO
Matt Rivers
Free play for Thursday is the underdog Vanderbilt Commodores.
Don't go to sleep on Vandy, as they are now back at full strength and have won seven straight games to improve to 13-4 on the season. The Dores have been a cash-cow on the road thus far, covering five of their six lined away games, and they have also held the upperhand in this series, winning the last pair of series showdowns, and three of the last four straight up.
Not willing to lay the wood with the Tide, as Alabama is just 2-3 against the spread in their lined home games this year, and Anthony Grant's team is looking to get back on track after a conference road loss at Mississippi State their last time out.
This game should be nip-and-tuck for the full 40-minutes.
Take the underdog Commodores to stay within ear-shot tonight at the Coleman Coliseum.
4♦ VANDERBILT
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels to cover against the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Oh, I pity the Hokies. They are facing a North Carolina team that just came off a 33-point loss to Florida State. Now, every team can have an off night, and North Carolina did that against Florida State.
There is going to be a bounce-back effort today and will take their frustrations out on Virginia Tech.
And it’s not like Virginia Tech is tearing it up. It has lost its last three games.
North Carolina had a nine-game winning streak snapped by Florida State. North Carolina has had five days of practice since that defeat.
Look for North Carolina to play one its better games.
Virginia Tech averages 62.2 points a game in its last five games and is only shooting 38.4 percent. North Carolina, in its last five games averages 83.0 points and shoots 43.6 percent.
The Tar Heels have too much offense.
2♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Penn State +3.5
We last saw Illinois in action on Jan. 10 when it pulled off a big upset win over Ohio State. That victory improved the Illini to 4-1 in Big Ten play, but I expect the long layoff to make it very difficult for them to get to 5-1 tonight. Penn State will be lacking no motivation here as it looks to end a 3-game skid. It is a solid 7-4 at home this season, where it blew out Purdue, who crushed Illinois by 15, and played Indiana to a 6-point game. Illinois is just 1-3 in its last 4 away from home and that lone win came by a single point. Penn State won last year's home meeting over Illinois by 2 points to improved to 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games in the series. Overall, it is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups. Plus, the underdog is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18. It is also worth noting that the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite while the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points.
Larry Ness
UCLA +2
UCLA has rebounded after a slow start to the season. After coming out of the gates 2-5, the Bruins have since won EIGHT of 10, coinciding with head coach Ben Howland suspending (for the entire season) Reeves Nelson. Meanwhile, Oregon State is heading in the opposite direction. The Beavers got off to a hot start, winning 10 of their first 12 games but have struggled mightily in Pac 12 play, losing FIVE of six. The two meet tonight in Corvallis. With Nelson gone, both of LY's bookend forwards (Honeycutt) are no longer with the team. Nelson (13.9-9.1) was the Bruins' leading scorer and rebounder last year and Honeycutt added 12.8-7.2. UCLA had won five straight after the Nelson suspension but then faced a tough two-game conference road trip to Stanford and Cal. The Bruins lost by just one to the Cardinal but were handled easily by the Bears. Still, let me note that those two schools are a combined 24-1 SU at home TY. However, UCLA has rebounded with back-to-back "home" wins (games were played in Anaheim) over Arizona and Arizona St plus a dominating 66-47 road win at USC last Sunday night. Lazeric Jones (13.3-3.6-4.2) is playing well as the team's "make-do" PG with Lamb (9.4-3.6-2.6) starting alongside of him. Reserve guards Anderson (7.8-3.6 APG) and Powell (5.5) are not bad. The 6-10 Wear twins (transfers from North Carolina) are now the team's "bookend" forwards with Travis averaging 11.5 & 4.9 (18.3-6.7 the L3 games)and David 9.1 & 6.4 (11.1-7.6 the L10 games). I'm not sure 6-10 center Smith will ever get into great shape but after missing the Arizona game with a concussion, he came off the bench to score 18 points in the Bruins' 75-58 with over ASU. It was easily Smith's best game of the season but he then had just six points and five rebounds vs USC. It's the way he is, averaging 9.7-5.3 on the year (those numbers could and even SHOULD be much better!). Oregon St has a pair of starting guards playing well, as Cunningham (17.6-3.8-3.0) leads the team in scoring and Starks (13.7) is very consistent. Coming off the bench is Nelson (10.5-3.2-2.9), giving the Beavers three double-digit scorers in the backcourt. Only the 6-7 Collier (12.8-5.1) reaches that plateau up front but the 6-7 Burton (9.5-6.2-3.2) and the 6-10 Brandt (9.3) come close. OSU also has a second 6-10 player in Moreland (4.7-6.7) to combat UCLA's size inside with the Wear twins and Smith. UCLA owns a commanding 89-33 lead in the all-time series with Oregon State and the Bruins have been especially dominant in recent years, winning the past 13 meetings. What changes here? N-O-T-H-I-N-G!
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -1 over California
Cal is 5-1 in the conference, 15-4 overall and they've won three in a row with its last victory being by 36 points over Utah. That has them somewhat overvalued here. Truth be told, the Golden Bears are just 2-4 on the road where they're averaging just 69 PPG. They've also been blown out when playing quality clubs and that includes a 39-point loss to Mizzou and a 17-point loss to UNLV. When the Golden Bears came in here last season, they lost by 32 points. Meanwhile, Washington is 10-1 at home this year and 32-5 at home over the past three years. They're ranked 8th in the country in rebounding and 22nd in points per game. The Huskies 11-6 overall record has them very undervalued here. They have some solid losses on their resume that inlcude a six-point loss to #5 Duke and a two-point loss to #11 Marquette. The Huskies own teams in their own building and frankly, this is a very cheap lay on a team that is not only better than today's guest but that continues to dominate at home. Play: #568 Washington -1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
We're also playing the following game
OREGON State -1½ over UCLA Risking 2.16 units to win 2
Brad Leeb
Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: Calgary Flames +1½
The Calgary Flames are in Los Angeles to play the Kings at the Staple Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Kings listed as 175-moneyline favorites versus the Flames, while the game's total is sitting at 5. The Flames hold the advantage on the Puckline with +1.5. In their last action, Calgary was a 2-1 loser on the road against the San Jose Sharks. The Flames are currently in 12th place in the Western Conference. They are 3-5-2 in their last 10 games with a 8-14-4 record on the road. In their last action, Los Angeles was a 3-2 winner on the road against the Vancouver Canucks. The Kings are currently in 7th place in the Western Conference. They are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games with a 13-10-3 record on home ice. Head-to-head the Kings have the advantage with a 4-1 win in the only matchup between these team this year on January 14th in Calgary. This will be the 2nd coaching duel between Sutter brother Brent and Darryl. Brent will be looking to even the season series with a Flames win tonight in LA. The Kings hold the advantage statistically but the Flames will avoid all the media build up of the Sutter rivalry. Darryl will have to deal with most of the home media and the Flames could surprise the Kings. The Flames have a good change to steal this game, but the smarter bet is on the Puckline.
Dave Price
1 Unit Northern Arizona +15.5
We'll play against Weber State this evening as favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record, are just 26-53 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 15.0 points but have only won by an average of 11.9 points. We'll look to take advantage of this inflated line.