Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, January 20,2011

Marc Lawrence

Gonzaga at Santa Clara
Prediction: Santa Clara

When the Broncos take on the Bulldogs in a West Coast Conference clash in Santa Clara tonight they will take the court knowing the visiting team in Gonzaga games is 0-9 ATS when the Zags are off a win of 20 or more points and the opponent is off a loss of 20 or more points. With the Broncos 5-0 ATS at home in this series when playing with three or more days of rest when Gonzaga arrives off a SU and ATS win, look for the upset here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Santa Clara.

Scott Spreitzer

Arizona at Washington
Play: Arizona

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Thursday night. Arizona is 15-3 SU, 3-1 in true road games and 5-2 ATS its last seven road games. The Wildcats have covered the last four meetings with Washington and seven of the last eight. Their only losses this season were at Oregon State and against BYU and Kansas on neutral courts. Arizona is coming off home wins over California, Stanford and Arizona State. The undisputed star of the team is forward Derrick Williams who is averaging 19.7 per game while averaging 7.3 rebounds and shooting an astounding 65.8 percent from the field and making 17 of 24 3-point shots. In the game against Arizona State, Williams made more free throws (15) than the entire Sun Devil team (13). Washington is 13-4 with losses against Michigan State and Kentucky in the Maui Invitational, at Texas A&M and at Stanford. The Huskies are the favorites to win the Pac-10 but this line appears to be inflated against a strong Arizona squad. Guard Isaiah Thomas averages 16.5 points and 5.4 assists per game, followed by forward Matt Bryan-Amaning with 15.2 points along with 7.7 rebounds and forward Justin Holiday, who scores 12.4 points per contest. The Wildcats are on an 8-0 ATS run after failing to cover at least four straight games. The Wildcats should keep this one close and I'm taking the valuable points with Arizona on Thursday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Bobcats

Recent revenge will be in the air tonight in Charlotte as the Bobcats host Philadelphia. The Sixers got the Bobcats on Monday, winning 96-92 in overtime, but it was Charlotte that left with the cash as 5.5-point road dogs. The Cats now catch the 76ers off a second straight OT loss, as Philly lost in Orlando last night and are a much better team at home. Charlotte is also 64-37 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game.

Play on: Charlotte

Terron Chapman

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +3.5

The surging Los Angeles Clippers will take to the road for the third and final installment of their season series with the Portland Trail Blazers Thursday night on TNT. With both teams playing Wednesday, depth will be a key. The Blazers lead the season series 2-0, and have won the last four in the series, but a streaking Clippers team is primed to breakthrough.

The Blazers organization got more bad news Wednesday afternoon as news came out that Marcus Camby would become the latest Blazer to have to undergo knee surgery, joining the likes of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden. Camby’s absence will cripple an already thin Blazers interior.

Camby had 12 points and 19 rebounds in the Blazers 100-91 win against the Clippers on Dec. 5 in Portland. Wesley Matthews led all scorers with 26 and the Blazers led by as many as 22 points despite shooting just under 40% from the floor. Brandon Roy paced the Blazers with 22 points in the first meeting between the two teams back on Oct. 27. All five Blazers starters scored in double-figures.

The Clippers did however hold the Blazers under 41% from the field in both meetings. They’re defense continues to be solid, holding opponents to 44% from the field over the last five games (4-1). Los Angeles will enter having won three in a row and five of their last six.

The Rose Garden is one of the toughest places to play in the league as evidenced by the Blazers 14-5 record. The Clippers can attest having last won there back on Dec. 12 2008 when Marcus Camby was a Clipper. However, the second outfit from Los Angeles enters playing their best basketball of the season and while talent still remains on the Blazers roster, playing their second game in as many nights may be too much to overcome against a determined and deeper visitor; take the points. Play on the Los Angeles Clippers (+) the points for 1 unit.

DAVID CHAN

San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

I bet value where I see it, and after dropping consecutive games to end their road-trip, including a close 4-3 loss at Colorado on Tuesday, I expect the Canucks to "bounce back" tonight in front of the home town crowd.

Vancouver enjoys one of the leagues best home records at 15-3-3; the Canucks have outscored the Sharks 10-4 in their last two meetings.

San Jose is coming off back to back victories (including 4-2 vs. the Coyotes on Monday); note though that the Sharks are 8-10 [-5.4 units] after scoring four-goals or more in their previous contest.

Great line value here; I expect a rout; all signs point to the VANCOUVER CANUCKS as the sharp wager in this contest.

Scott Rickenbach

Philadelphia @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte -5

This one sets up very nicely for the Bobcats. Charlotte lost a tough one in overtime to the Sixers on Monday. The Bobcats then had to play Tuesday night at Chicago. The scheduling now works out in their favor as Charlotte comes into this match-up with an off-day Wednesday while the Sixers are coming into this match-up in a tough back to back situation. The 76'ers had to face the Magic in Orlando Wednesday and then travel to Charlotte for this match-up.

Heading into the Orlando game Philadelphia has now failed to cover the spread in four straight games. Also, of course, this is a unique opportunity for the Bobcats to have a shot at right back revenge. Look for Charlotte to make the most of it and note that the Bobcats had covered six of their last seven games heading into the match-up with the Bulls on Tuesday. The Bobcats are starting to heat up in the ATS department and, conversely, the Sixers are starting to cool off in the ATS department after their unrealistic start to the season. Keep in mind, the 76'ers were 24-11 ATS to start the season. No team can maintain the pace forever and, sure enough, the Sixers "cooldown" has begun. It continues here. Consider a small play on Charlotte in NBA action on Thursday.

Jim Feist

Clippers vs. Trail Blazers
Play: Over 195

The Clippers have an offensive force in Blake Griffin and ride a 7-3 run over the total. They've scored 99 or more in 6 straight games heading into last night's game. Portland has also been on a terrific run over the total, 6 of 7, with the defense being the main problem. This is the second of a back to back spot for both teams, which means the defenses won't be as sharp. Portland is 2-0 over the total its last 2 times in the second of a back to back, as is the Clippers. Play the Clippers/Blazers Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Nevada Wolfpack -2

Nevada is a team on the rise. The Wolfpack backcourt of true freshman Deonte Burton and Indiana transfer Malik Story are producing on a consistent
basis. Nevada's frontcourt recently got a boost when 6'7" Duke transfer Olek Czyz became eligible. New Mexico State had a very underrated team last year the over achieved on the road. I don't expect this years addition of the Aggies to have that same success without the departed back court of Jamar Young and Jonathon Gibson who combined for 39 points per game last season. Lay the points.

Bryan Leonard

Indiana at Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin

The Hoosiers have been horrendous away from home this year, losing all four true road games and cashing just once. The shooting has been especially bad with a 43.4% accuracy rate. Indiana is off a rare win as they beat Michigan 80-61 at home last time out. That snapped a six game losing steak for the Hoosiers.

Wisconsin is simply deadly when playing at home, just ask Illinois as the Badgers beat the Fighting Illini by 10 earlier this week. Wisconsin is holding the opposition to 37.5% shooting in this building and they should have little problem slowing down this inconsistent Indiana offense.

Wisconsin has dominated Indiana the past two seasons winning by margins of 32, 28, 24 and 17 points. While the revenge factor is surely there for the Hoosiers the talent is lacking.

Matt Fargo

North Texas vs. UL Monroe
Play: North Texas -7.5

North Texas is coming off an upset loss at Troy on Saturday as it was favored by 4.5 points and lost by eight. The Trojans had a hot shooting night as they shot an unheard of 56.4 percent from the floor while hitting 76 percent of their free throws. It was definitely an aberration as it was just the fourth win of the entire season for Troy while being just the fourth loss of the entire season for North Texas. It has the chance to bounce back in a big way here. UL-Monroe picked up its first win on the Sun Belt season by winning at South Alabama on Saturday by a bucket as 9.5-point underdogs. That was an even bigger upset than the North Texas loss and putting these two unlikely wins together in the next game for each provides some value with the bounce angle. Two of the six Warhawks wins this season came against non-Division I teams while two others came against Centenary, currently 0-20 and Jacksonville St., currently 2-16. North Texas has dominated this series of late as it has won the last seven meetings with UL-Monroe, including all three games last season. In fact, there isn't a player on the roster that has ever lost to the Warhawks and the average margin of victory over this seven-game span is 13.9 ppg. Few teams get to the free throw line and make it count like North Texas as it leads the NCAA with 21.2 free throws made per game, and is 32nd in the country with a free throw percentage of 74.3 percent. UL-Monroe meanwhile is hitting just 66.7 percent from the charity stripe while converting only 11.6 free throws per game. North Texas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss against the number while going 18-9 ATS in its last 27 road games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. The Warhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. Look for things to return back to normal following the incongruity last Saturday. 3* North Texas Mean Green

Tom Freese

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats -5

Philadelphia is 17-24 straight up this year. The Sixers lost a tough game last night to Orlando 99-98. Now they take on Charlotte on the road and we feel like the Sixers will be flat in this game. The Sixers are 2-5-1 ATS their last 8 Thursday games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Sixers are 3-8 ATS their last 12 meetings with Charlotte. The Bobcats are 16-24 straight up this year. Charlotte is 7-2 ATS their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games overall. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

Ray Monohan

Phoenix Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: Los Angeles Kings

This is the first game of a home-and-home series between the Coyotes (23-15-9) and the Kings (24-21-1). Three of Los Angeles’ next four games are at home before the team sets out on a 10-game road trip. Both clubs lost consecutive games on Monday and Tuesday and each team is having trouble scoring goals. Phoenix has won the first 2 meetings between the 2 teams so far, most recently winning 6-3 at home on Dec. 29. While it is true that LA has been struggling of late I like their home record, as they are one of those teams that are tough to beat on home ice. (15-8-1). Jonathan Quick will get a chance to redeem himself after that last game where a game-winning goal trickled past him vs. St. Louis. Until the late gaffe, Quick was having one of his strongest games of the last month or so, and coach Terry Murray said he will give Quick a chance to build off that. The Coyotes will be without defenseman Ed Jovanovski and Vernon Fiddler. I like LA in a close game here and one area which the Coyotes are not to good is in games that go past regulation. Phoenix has won just two of the 11 games that were tied after 60 minutes this season. Bet on LA, and Jonathan Quick getting the victory Thursday night.

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim +104 over TORONTO

Color the Ducks rather fortunate to win their last game in Ottawa, as they were clearly the second best team on the ice Wednesday night. However, another outstanding performance by Jonas Hiller allowed the Ducks to pick up a road win and one has to figure them for a better performance tonight in the center of the hockey universe. Anaheim makes a rare visit to Toronto and will bring some energy with them. Despite its road woes, the Ducks have still reeled off six wins in their last seven games with two wins in their last three road games and have a huge edge in net. The Leafs are coming off that disaster in New York last night. Shame on Ron Wilson for leaving young and fragile Jonas Gustavsson out to dry. In 38 years of watching the NHL, I’ve never seen a goaltender yanked and then put back in there to begin the next period. In any event, the Leafs defense was putrid and after a game like that it puts a whole lot of pressure on them tonight. Dion Phaneuf looks worse every year and every game and the only Maple Leaf defenseman that can be trusted to make consistently good defensive plays is Luke Schenn. The Leafs are certainly going to want to get back on the ice and erase that memory of last night as quickly as possible but they’re still fragile from it and an early goal could see another complete breakdown. Play: Anaheim +104 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. ISLANDERS +160 over Washington

The Islanders are +1.47 with OT included and therefore at +1.60 we’ll play them in regulation only. The Caps are grossly overpriced here because of their fine record and reputation but this is not nearly the same team that has dominated the regular season for years and that started the year out well. The Caps have lost a ton of fire. Bruce Boudreau looks battered and beaten down. The offense hasn’t scored more than three goals in 11 straight games and had it not been for 40 seconds and outstanding goaltending by Semyon Varlamov they would’ve been whacked by Philly on Wednesday. The Caps have dropped three straight on the road and they just don’t have the same desire as they’ve had in the past. The Islanders have plenty of desire and that alone makes them very worthy of a bet here. Yes, they’re struggling and yes they’re goaltending is shaky but they’re still 8-6 over its last 14 games and they’ve scored four goals or more in half of them. If they lose here it won’t be because they’ll get outworked, it’ll likely be because of goaltending but at this price all the value is on the host. Play: N.Y. Islanders +160 (Risking 2 units).

Buffalo +142 over BOSTON

The Bruins are playing perhaps their best hockey of the season right now and for the first time in a long time goals are coming at a high rate. In fact, the B’s have scored 29 times over its last six games and that’s significant. Boston has also been getting great goaltending all year too. However, you can throw that all out the window when these two meet because when they do the game is a complete toss-up. The Sabres have beaten Boston six of the last 10 meetings. In four games this year, each team has won twice. The Sabres are coming off a 2-1 OT win over the Habs and have now won six of their last nine games. The real kicker though is the tag. Surely the Bruins can win this game but so can the Sabres and with a take-back like this on them, the Sabres offer up tremendous value. Definite overlay. Play: Buffalo +142 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose +136 over VANCOUVER

The Canucks bring out the best in the Sharkies. San Jose has beaten Vancouver in 10 of the last 14 games and they catch the Canucks at precisely the right time. Vancouver returns home from a five game trip that ended with a tough 4-3 OT loss to the Av’s. The last time the Canucks returned home from a trip they beat the Flames 3-1 but were dominated in that game and were outshot 44-21. After a torrid run that saw them pick up points in 17 straight games, the Canucks have since come back to earth with four losses in their last six. The Sharkies seem to be over their funk that saw them lose six in a row. They’re coming off back-to-back 4-2 wins over the Blue Notes and Coyotes and winning really energizes a club. San Jose is warming up, well rested, and they really need to make a push, as they’re in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time in years. This is a quality club that could go on a big run and again, they catch the Canucks in a vulnerable spot. Play: San Jose +136 (Risking 2 units).

Wunderdog

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New Jersey Devils
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins appear hungry to step back on the Stanley Cup Finals stage. They have played well at home and on the road, and come into this one with three straight wins by a combined 12-5 margin. The Devils have been living a nightmare, amassing six losing streaks of three games or more on the season. To make things worse, the Devils have not won more than two in a row at any point on the season. The Penguins are 1-2 off of one day of rest in their last 13, and are 16-5 after a win. The Devils are 0-8 in their last eight on two days rest and 6-25 following a win. Pittsburgh is the play.