Rob Vinciletti
Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama
Play: South Alabama +2
South Bama is 6-2 at home this season and 1-5 straight up as a home dog of 3 or less. Long term they are 26-6 vs teams with a losing record, including 5-2 this season. They are coming off a home favored loss as a 10 point favorite vs LA. Monroe. They will look to bounce back vs a Western Kentucky that is in a downward spiral having lost their last 6 games. WKU is 1-5 ats this year vs losing teams and 1-6 straight up and against the spread off 3 ats losses. Look for South Alabama to win this one as a small dog here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington Huskies -9
Washington has been extremely impressive at home this season, where it is 9-0 and winning by an average of 29.5 points. Arizona just isn't good enough defensively to keep this one close against one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country. For one, the Wildcats don't force nearly enough turnovers. Consider that Washington is 7-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 82.0 to 65.0. Betting against the Huskies at home has been a big mistake. That's because they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Pac-10. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-10. Arizona has dropped three straight road games against Top 25 opponents. Arizona basketball is on the way up, but it isn't ready for this explosive Washington team tonight. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats -5
The Bobcats have the edge on their home floor tonight with a day of rest on their side, especially since the 76ers were extended to overtime and dropped a heartbreaker to Orlando last night. Having already suffered a pair of losses at Philly this season, Charlotte will be out for revenge this evening. The Bobcats have won 5 straight at home in this series. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing with 1 day of rest and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
Mavs/Bulls OVER 185
There is clearly some nice value here tonight with the OVER in the Dallas Mavericks versus Chicago Bulls showdown Thursday. Dallas has only played 5 games all season with a total set of 185 points or less. The OVER is 4-1 in those five games. Chicago has played in four games with a total of 185 or less, where the OVER is 2-2 in those contests. Considering The Mavericks are averaging 97.1 PPG on the road and the Bulls are scoring 100.3 PPG at home this season, you can see why there is some decent value in this play Thursday.
Dallas is 15-3 to the OVER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. I'm seeing an average of 196.3 PPG on average in this spot. Chicago is 23-9 to the OVER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls and their opponents are combining to score 206.3 PPG in this situation. The OVER is 9-2 in Mavericks last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. The OVER is 15-7 in Dallas' last 22 games overall. Chicago is 4-1 to the OVER in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this contest Thursday.
John Ryan
Arizona vs. Washington
Play: Washington -9
5* graded play on Washington as they take on Arizona in PAC-10 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will blow out Arizona and win this game by a minimum of 10 points. These are the two top teams in the PAC-10 with Washington holding a 1/2 game lead over Arizona in the conference standings. Washington has been incredible in home games scoring 97.5 points per game and posting a perfect 9-0 record. One of the nation's top-scoring squads, Washington averages a league-high 87.1 points with Arizona second at 77.7 per contest. The Wildcats lead the conference shooting 48.7 percent while the Huskies are second at 48.6. Washington's 40.4 percent shooting from 3-point range leads the league with Arizona right behind at 38.9. They also boast two of the Pac-10's top three scorers in Arizona's Derrick Williams and Washington's Isaiah Thomas. Arizona’s biggest problem is that they depend on Williams in every game as he is the only player in double figures and to ask him to dominate this road test in Seattle is just too much for him to overcome. Washington ranks second nationally in offensive scoring at 87.1 points per game. The scoring is done not just by fast break points either as they rank 16th recording 17.9 assists per game. This reflects that the entire offense has confidence in each other and will look for the best available shot. Take Washington.
Sean Higgs
Detroit vs. Cleveland State
Play: Detroit +9½
Tonight, we are on the DETROIT TITANS. Can't believe we are catching this number here tonight. Unless we are missing 3 starters, this game is going to be tight. Titans 6-2 ATS last 8 vs teams with winning home records and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 on the road. Detroit also on a 17-6 ATS run last 23 vs Cleveland State. A win here puts them right back into the thick of things for the Horizon Title.
Ben Burns
Dallas @ Chicago
PICK: Chicago -3
The Mavericks snapped their losing streak last night. They're a talented team and with Nowitski back in the lineup, they're bound to return to their winning ways. That doesn't mean that they'll win again tonight though.
While the Mavs are off a hard-fought (and badly needed) victory over the Lakers, the Bulls had last night off. That gives them both the schedule and the venue in their favor.
Even with a 1-point loss (83-82) in their last game, the Bulls are still 12-5 their last 17 games; four of those five losses coming on the road. Note that they're also 11-6-2 ATS the past few seasons, after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game.
The Bulls have already beaten the likes of both the Celtics and Heat on this floor, in 2011.
The Bulls also already won at Dallas earlier this season. Including that result, the Mavs are 9-18 ATS their last 27 against teams from the Central. During that stretch, the Bulls were 17-7-1 ATS against teams from the Southwest.
With the Mavs playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, consider laying the small number with the home team.
Sports Insights
Sacramento Kings (+2.5) over Portland Trail Blazers
The Sacramento Kings have had a rough season thus far, compiling a 9-30 record. They are coming off of a six-game East Coast road trip where they only managed to grab one win.
Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers have a 22-20 record including winning six of their last ten games. They have had most of their success at home (14-5) while struggling on the road (8-15). This will also be Portland's first game without veteran center Marcus Camby after he suffered a knee injury in their last game.
Portland opened as a 2-point favorite at CRIS, Pinnacle, and BetUS, and now all three books have dropped the line half a point to -1.5. The line has moved towards Sacramento despite the Kings receiving 1 out of every 5 bets against the spread. This reverse-line movement is an indicator of sharp money and we have also tracked a 5Dimes Smart Money Play (71-59 +5.61 units won) and two Steam Moves on the Kings.
We will take the Kings, the points, and the home-court advantage for tonight's game.
Steve Janus
1* Rutgers -4
The Scarlet Knights have been a great play at home lately, and getting them as a small favorite puts even more value on them tonight. Rutgers is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite, and are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
South Florida is just 1-8 on the road this season, and have not been a good play as a dog on the road lately. The Bulls are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cal Golden Bears +6.5
UCLA is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight against a Cal team that will be out for blood after an embarrassing loss to Washington. If there is one coach who can't be overlooked on the road, it's Mike Montgomery. In fact, his teams are 62-41 ATS in lined road games since 1997. UCLA is often overvalued at home, and that is certainly the case tonight. Consider that the Bruins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. They are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite overall. The Golden Bears are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Pac-10 and the road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Arizona State +10
Arizona State is showing excellent value tonight as a double-digit underdog to Washington State. WSU has lost 4 of their last 7 games overall, and as soon as the schedule started getting difficult the Cougars' true colors have started to show through. To ask them to win by double-digits tonight against a solid ASU squad is simply asking too much. Arizona State is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games off a road loss against a conference rival since 1997. WSU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. ASU won both meetings with the Cougars last season, blowing them out 71-46 at home and winning 81-70 on the road. They'll keep this one close tonight, possibly pulling off the upset. Take Arizona State and the points.
Info Plays
3* USC Trojans -7
Reasons why USC will cover:
1) While Stanford had a big win over Washington at home not too long ago, they are just 2-5 on the road this season overall and against the spread.
2) USC is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite since 1997, and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
3) Play on - favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (USC) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher, as its 149-95 since 1997.