DAVE COKIN
SAN FRANCISCO AT SANTA CLARA
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
San Francisco is not a particularly good team, but the Dons are pretty entertaining to watch. This team plays as if defense is a foreign concept they have no desire to explore. That means the Dons are predictable to an extent. If they’re hitting their shots, they can hang with some pretty good opponents. If they get defensed by the opposition, they basically have no chance because they can’t stop anything.
The good news for San Francisco tonight is that while Santa Clara is a clock milker, it’s not like the Broncos are any good defensively. Against teams in the upper reaches as far as adjusted tempo is concerned, Santa Clara has only two wins. One of those was a narrow escape against San Jose State and they also managed to defeat Portland.
The Broncos are certainly capable of getting a win here. They should get plenty of good looks, and it’s not like the team is incapable of getting hot, particularly when talking about Jared Brownridge. Plus, if the whistles are plentiful, Santa Clara is decent at the stripe. But matching the teams head to head categorically, it’s the Dons owning most of the advantages in the areas I give the most weight to.
The game itself doesn’t have a great deal of meaning aside from the rivalry that exists between these teams. Both the Dons and Broncos are 3-5 in league play, and if either of these teams are still playing past the WCC tourney, it would constitute a major surprise. For what it’s worth, San Francisco has been getting it done on the road, posting a surprising 36-16-1 ATS ledger in its last 53 lined road games. I can see the Dons checking off another winner in the spread column here is what looms as a close game. I’ll take the available points with San Francisco.
Sleepyj
San Francisco +3.5
Three games on tap tonight that the numbers I have just don't match up....I have this game lined at PK...So I find value here with San Fran...I'm def not sold on Santa Clara one bit...Santa Clara is a weak inside team who struggles to score..They shouldn't be laying over a bucket here..Give me the points.
Siena - 8...I have this line at -12...So 4 pt differential puts me on the Saints here tonight at home coming off a loss..Rider doesn't have much to offer IMO..I think they are over matched in this one..This one might even cover the -12.
Loyala Marymount +8.5...My line for this one is BYU -5...So grabbing +3.5 more points at home is ok with me..BYU is a good team, but Loyola comes in here hot off the road..i think they keep this one close..-8.5 is just a little high for the Cougars playing it's 3rd road game in row now.
Bruce Marshall
Penn St. +3
Wiscy interim HC Greg Gard demonstrated he is not completely wed to the old-style slowdown tactics of mentor Bo Ryan when Badgers ran with Michigan State and beat the Spartans 77-76 Sunday. But if Wiscy is in celebratory mood, it could be vulnerable vs. a Penn State side suddenly walking with a bit more spring in its step after Saturday's upset win at previously-surging Northwestern. The Nittany Lions turned the defensive screws on the Wildcats, pestering NU's perimeter shooters into a woeful 3-for-26 three-ball mark, while underrated 6-6 sr. F Brandon Taylor (scored 18 vs. NU; 19 ppg last seven) continued his stretch of remarkably consistent efforts.
Rob Vinciletti
Spurs vs. Suns
Play:Spurs -14
The Spurs are rested and ready after having the last 3 days off. They have covered in 22 of 30 vs teams who allow 99 or more points, 17 of 21 vs losing teams and fit a powerful system that plays on road favorites at -5 or more with 3+ days off after a win and cover at home, scoring 110 or more. These road favorites cover over 75% of the time. The winning team in this series has covered 17 of 18 and the Phoenix Suns are 0-5 straight up and ats vs the Spurs and have failed to cover 12 of 15 off a non conference game. Take the Spurs.
Jim Feist
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets
Play: Under 194½
Memphis is a solid defensive team preferring a slower pace, No. 6 in the NBA in points allowed. The under is 17-5 in the Grizzlies last 22 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Memphis just finished up a long homestand and now head to the thin Denver mountain air. Denver is 11-0 under the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Look for the visitors to control the tempo and the under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, including 5-1 under on this court.
Scott Spreitzer
Memphis vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -7½
The Bearcats can't afford to lose much more ground, sitting at 3-3 in the AAC, looking up at 7-0 SMU. The Bearcats will welcome Memphis to town, a team that plays defense, but can't shoot straight. The Tigers rank 321st in FG percentage and 328th in 3-point accuracy. Josh Pastner's squad is playing just their third true road game of the season tonight, having lost their first two to UConn and South Carolina. Memphis made just 34% of their FGA in those games and I expect more struggles for the Tigers on the offensive end tonight. Cincy has held their "guests" to 63 ppg on 37.7% shooting and they own a big-time assist-turnover ratio, averaging 19 apg and just 11 tpg. That's an important note because Memphis has covered just 14 of their last 39 against teams that average no more than 12 tpg. The Tigers have also damaged bankrolls in the role of an underdog, entering on a 3-11 ATS slide when getting points.
Big Al
San Antonio vs. Phoenix
Pick: San Antonio
The Spurs are the best team "in Vegas," if not in the entire NBA. This season, Spurs have, by a wide margin, the best point differential (+14.21), the best pointspread differential (+4.72), and the best ATS win percentage (.682). To illustrate just how dominant the Spurs have been, consider that the second-best point differential belongs to Golden State, which trails San Antonio by 2.08 ppg. The second-best pointspread differential is also owned by Golden State, which has covered the spread by 2.46 ppg, a whopping 2.26 ppg less than San Antonio's margin. And the second-best ATS win percentage is Golden State's .619, significantly less than the Spurs' .682 mark. To further illustrate how special a season San Antonio is having, consider that the Spurs have only lost back-to-back games against the spread once, and that was back on November 18-20, against the Nuggets and Pelicans. Tonight, San Antonio will face off against (arguably) the league's worst team, the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix has won just one of its last 15 games, and has been outscored by 12.73 ppg in this stretch. The Spurs have won 11 straight, and road favorites of -8 or more points, that have won their previous eight games, are 44-17 ATS since 1990.
Jesse Schule
Detroit vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
The Pelicans have won three of their last four overall, and two of those three victories came at home. They host the Detroit Pistons tonight, and the Pistons are coming off a 123-114 win over the Rockets in Houston last night. Detroit isn't a great road team (9-12), and this game on back to back nights could be a bit of a let down spot. The Pelicans are hot, shooting 43.1 percent over their last four games, and they hit 10-of-23 three point attempts in a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Anthony Davis scored 35 points in that game, and it's no coincidence that the Pelicans have been winning since his return from injury.
New Orleans has dominated this series in recent seasons, winning six straight meetings, three of those at home. While the Pistons came away with a win in last night's game in Houston, the Rockets did expose a major weakness. Andre Drummond broke an NBA record, with 23 misses from the free throw line. Detroit has failed to cover in five of it's last seven when playing on back to back nights, and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games at New Orleans.
Matt Fargo
Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's
Play: St. Mary's -3½
In what is considered the biggest rivalry in the West Coast Conference, it hasn't looked that way the last few years. Gonzaga and St. Mary's typically share the top two spots but it is the former that has dominated as Gonzaga has won and covered seven straight meetings in this series while winning eight straight outright as well. This could be the year that the Gaels finally get their revenge as both teams come in with 6-1 conference records but it is the Bulldogs that look like they have taken a slight step back. It was supposed to be St. Mary's falling back some as it lost all five starters from last season but it is off to a 15-2 start with the only losses coming sat Pepperdine by three points and at California by four points. Prior to losing their last two games against the number, the Gaels had covered 12 straight games to open the season so the role of favorite here is the right one. Gonzaga only has four losses but it clearly is not as dominating as it has been in year's past as the Bulldogs are just 5-10-1 against the number and this is the first time they have been an underdog all season.
Mr. Vegas
Carolina at Toronto
Play: Toronto
Carolina is a weak team heading out on the road, ranked 25th in scoring, 19th in goals allowed and 22nd on the power play. They looked even worse the last game, a 5-0 loss at PIttsburgh. The Hurricanes are 17-38 in their last 55 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Toronto is home and Matt Hunwick scored late to lead Toronto past the Flyers the last game, 3-2..
Alex Smart
Blackhawks vs. Lightning
Play: Under 5
Two red hot teams on winning streaks go head to head tonight in Tampa Bay, as the Lightning host the Chicago Blackhawks in a rematch of lat seasons Stanley cup Play offs . The Hawks have won 12 straight and the Bolts 7 straight. Both base their successes and failures on playing top tier Defense, and tonight Im betting we see more of that same tenacious D, that has made them NHL power houses. In the L/7 meetings including one this season, a 1-0 win for the Hawks at home and the 6 tilts in last years play offs, show a total of 23 goals have been scored, for an average combined score per game of 3.28. Everything points to another physical low scoring confrontation.
Chicago goalie Corey Crawford owns a 1.88 goals-against average in winning nine consecutive starts. Tampa Bays stopper, Ben Bishop is expected to start in this key battle. The goaltender has allowed just three goals over a three-start winning streak to lower his GAA to 1.97, second in the NHL.
Wunderdog
Kentucky @ Arkansas
Pick: Kentucky -155
John Calipari has proven to be the top NCAA Basketball recruiter in the country. It ensures one thing - players come and go frequently, as he gets numerous players that are one-and-done, or two-and-done. Most coaches would move on depleted after that. However, Kentucky quickly replaces those departed with an equal caliber crop of new players. That recipe avoids losing streaks, and the Wildcats have not lost two straight games since early March of 2013. They are off a real bad loss against Auburn and the expectation here, as we have seen over the years, is that they respond with a big effort. Arkansas has been a disappointing 9-8 on the season, and have already suffered damaging home losses to the likes of Akron, and Mercer this season. They will be catching a Kentucky team that will bring it, and just don't have the talent to fend them off in this one. The value in this one calls for Kentucky on the moneyline.
Brad Wilton
Thursday free play is Arkansas as the small home dog against Kentucky.
The Razorbacks stand at 3-0 straight up and against the spread the last 3 at home against the Wildcats.
The home team in this series is a money-making 7-1 ATS last 8 games played.
Kentucky is an awful 1-8 versus the spread their last 9 Thursday night games, and only 4-10 overall against the spread their last 14 games contested.
The Hogs have the three-point shooters to keep Coach Cal and his Wildcats out of the win column once again on Arkansas hardwood.
Take the Razorbacks.
3* ARKANSAS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Penn State as the small home underdog against Wisconsin.
Strong chance tonight the Nittany Lions end their 7 game losing streak to the Badgers, as this is NOT your usual Wisconsin team that just kicks ass and takes names.
Bo Ryan is now gone, and with it the Badgers long stretches of wins. Wisconsin has one straight up win in their last 4 games, and they have failed 11 in a row against the spread in this series!
Your barometer game for these 2 Big Ten foes is Northwestern.
The Badgers just lost to the Wildcats, 70-65 on the 12th, while the Nittany Lions were 71-62 winners at Northwestern on the 16th.
Wisconsin is just 2-4 against the spread on the road, while Penn State stands at 9-3 against the spread their last 12 in conference action.
I see the 7 game series win streak getting halted here.
Back Penn State.
3* PENN STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play is in West Coast Conference action, as I am laying the points with the Pepperdine Waves over the San Diego Toreros.
At 7-0, the Waves have their best home start in 11 years, and with a win against the Toreros tonight, it would give the Waves their best home record since 1985-86 (when they went 15-0 in Firestone Fieldhouse). The Waves come into this one having won four of their last five games. Two immediate wins would push Pepperdine into at least third place in the standings and give the team momentum before bigger upcoming games.
The Waves have won four of the last five meetings, however, San Diego won here in Firestone Fieldhouse last season. Thus - revenge could be key for this one.
I'll lay the points in this one today.
3* PEPPERDINE