Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Atlanta Hawks plus the point on the road over the Sacramento Kings. At the time of this writing, the Kings are actually laying a point (and even a point-and-a-half in some places) in Vegas and offshore.
While I realize that anything is possible and streaks were made to be broken, you can't ignore the fact that the Hawks have beaten the Kings 15 straight times dating back seven years and look to make it 16 in a row tonight in Sacramento.
Yes, seven of those wins have come in Sacto, with the Kings last winning a meeting in 2008. The Hawks opened a four-game West Coast road trip with a 104-98 win over Portland as Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore each scored 23 points in the win.
The Hawks are going to have to come to the conclusion that DeMarcus Cousins is a beast and he's going to get his points, but if they can keep everyone else in check --- which I think they will --- they'll have a great chance to win this game.
Take the Hawks for their second straight road win as your free play of the day.
2* ATLANTA
Dave Price
Memphis Grizzlies -1.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game with the Denver Nuggets. They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall to surge 5 games over .500 for the season at 24-19. This is the team we can expect to see the rest of the way. They now face a Nuggets team that is just 5-12 in their last 17 games overall. The Grizzlies have owned the Nuggets, going 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings. Denver is 1-8 ATS in home games off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games this season. The Grizzlies are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. The Nuggets are 16-38-3 ATS in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Atlanta Hawks +1
Atlanta comes into this game riding a 3-game winning streak and I believe they are the verge of going on a big run leading up to the All-Star Break. The Hawks opened up their 4-game road trip last night with a 104-98 win at Portland, who had been playing some of their best basketball with 4 wins in their last 5 games.
The Kings are certainly getting a lot of respect here, as they come in off a 3-0 road trip which concluded last night with a 19-point blowout win against the Lakers. Sacramento is playing better of late, but are not a team I trust to show up with no rest. They also are a team I don't trust at home, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
The biggest factor here is the history of this series. Atlanta has won 15 straight meetings against the Kings, including 7 straight in Sacramento. The big difference between these two teams is the Hawks actually play defense. Atlanta has held each of their last 3 opponents under 100 points, while the Kings have allowed 100+ in 10 of their last 11.
Sacramento is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after covering the spread last time out and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after scoring 105 or more in 2 straight games. Hawks are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 road games with a total of 200 or more, 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after covering 3 straight and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against an opponent who scored 100 or more in their last game.
Joseph D'Amico
San Antonio -15½
Phoenix is on such a poor run, losing 16 of their L18 SU, and crushing bettors with a 5-13 ATS mark, while San Antonio is riding an 11-game SU win streak, 18 of their L19, going 15-4 ATS. The Suns are 0-18 when they don't put up 100 or more points, which they haven't done in their 5 game skid against the Spurs. They are also 1-4 ATS their L5 as a DD 'dog as San Antonio is 4-0 ATS their L4 laying 9 or more points on the road. The Spurs took the first two meetings this year by a total of 47 points.
Brandon Lee
Oregon -5
The Ducks are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Oregon is 14-4 and deserving of being ranked inside the Top 25, but at this time are struggling to just get votes. The Ducks rank 9th in the country in RPI and are 6-2 against other teams ranked inside the Top 50 in RPI. It all adds up to Oregon showing great value here at home against USC. The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 on their home floor winning by an average of 15.2 ppg. USC is a quality team and getting a lot of love off 3 straight wins, including back-to-back victories against Arizona at home and at UCLA, but I just see them being the less motivated team here, as the Ducks are going to come out ready to go after a loss at Colorado last time out.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers -6
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing a lot better since Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have been healthy. They've gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.
Sure, they did not play well against the Warriors, but everything went right for the Warriors that night as they made a whopping 19 3-pointers. I think that defeat is going to stick with them for a while and will get them motivated to get better.
Cleveland has absolutely owned Los Angeles. It is 15-3 SU & 12-5 ATS in its last 18 meetings with the Clippers. I look for this one-sided dominance to continue considering the Clippers are still without Blake Griffin, and without him they don't stack up well against Cleveland.
The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS in its last nine trips to Cleveland.
Tony Karpinski
Cleveland Cavaliers -6
While most probably feel the Cavs rebounded from their EMBARRASSING loss last night expect much more tonight. KLove ripped the team and I expect another big effort tonight on National TV. Tonight's game is on TNT as was Golden St's. The Clippers are playing great ball having won 11 of their last 12 but this is their first road game since 1/6 and during their streak NONE or their 6 road wins came versus the 16 teams that would currently make the playoffs.
SPORTS WAGERS
LOS ANGELES -½ -110 over Minnesota
Regulation only. The Kings really need no introductions. This team is a true powerhouse in every sense. They are a top-3 team in just about every analytical category and a top-3 team in every above the surface stat too. The Kings have allowed two goals or less in nine of their last 11 games. They have scored three goals or more in 11 of their last 16 games. When NHL teams score three or more goals, their winning percentage is above 81%. When they score two or less, their winning percentage is under 28%. Three goals is the magic number in this league and so in that regard, one absolutely has to give the Kings an extremely better chance of scoring three than the Wild.
Minnesota played last night in Anaheim and scored one goal. That came against a makeshift Ducks’ defense. The Wild have dropped five straight while scoring two goals or less in every game. They have scored two or less in six straight. Over its past six games, Minnesota has scored six goals and was shutout by both Nashville and Winnipeg. The Wild have not scored a power-play goal in 11 straight games and over that span, they are 0-24. Minnesota has been outscored 7-1 over its past three games. Those aforementioned six games were against Dallas, New Jersey, Buffalo, Winnipeg, Nashville and Anaheim. The Preds allow every team they play to score three or more but the Wild couldn’t score even one time. The rest of that group is not exactly the cream of the defensive crop either. Again, we go back to the magic number of three and the Wild have a better chance of scoring 100 points on the Lakers than they do of scoring three on the Kings.
Calgary -105 over COLUMBUS
OT included. Calgary has to dig down as deep as they possibly can here in what has to be considered its most important game of the year. The Flames are slipping fast and in the highly competitive West, a prolonged funk means you will miss the playoffs. The Flames will make their third stop of a five-game trip. They have picked up one point in the first two games with their OT loss in Edmonton. They subsequently lost in New Jersey and now it’s onto Columbus. Imagine the feeling in that Flames locker room should they lose here and have one point out of six against Edmonton, New Jersey and Columbus. If the Flames lose here, it will all but seal their fate this season and they’ll look back on the first three games of this trip as to one of the main reasons why they missed the playoffs. Furthermore, Calgary coach Bob Hartley has an extreme dislike for John Tortorella (and vice versa) due to a feud they had when the latter was the coach with the Canucks. Tortorella was suspended for 15 days without pay after he attempted to enter the Flames locker room during intermission to confront Hartley. There is no question that this game is personal for Hartley and now he has the superior squad to do something about it. There are a number of reasons why the Flames figure to respond big here.
Every season for the past five or so, Columbus has been projected to be a team on the rise and every season they wake up in March. After another brutal start to the year (2-11) John Tortorella was hired to turn around the fortunes of an underachieving team that has had a “wait until next year” mentality for years. Add that hiring to the list of bad decisions that the Jackets have been making for years. Tortorella wasn’t a solution and he may not have even been a Band-Aid. He was fired as a matter of style as much as substance in both New York and Vancouver. The yelling and screaming, the constant browbeating during, between and before games, took their toll on everyone in the organization. His style stifled the Rangers and Canucks every bit as much as their opponents did and he’s bringing those same ingredients to the Jackets.
Columbus has two wins in their last seven games. One of those victories occurred against Colorado in a game that Scott Hartnell failed to get off the ice when the team was in the middle of a line change. Columbus was called for a penalty for too many men on the ice. Torts benched Hartnell for the remainder of the game.Hartnell apologized to his Blue Jackets teammates during the team’s end-of-practice stretch at center ice this past Monday but Tortorella benched him again on Tuesday against Washington. The Jackets lost 6-3. Yeah, it was Washington but players stick together and benching a 15-year vet that just apologized is another example of the way that Tortorella operates. Perhaps it’s time we all concede that the Jackets have been overpaying for mediocre talent for years. Perhaps it’s time we concede that this organization is paying for all their bad decisions. Because of the hate for one another, there is no question that both coaches want to win this game badly and so the question becomes, which group of players do you trust more to respond to their coach?
ARIZONA +121 over San Jose
OT included. The Sharks have been one of the streakiest teams in the league and right now they are on one of their hot streaks with five wins and one OT loss over their past six games. That’s 11 out of a possible 12 points. However, the set of games occurred against Toronto, a reeling Dallas team, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa. In three of those six games, San Jose allowed three goals or more so it’s not all peaches and cream. Another two of those victories occurred in extra time. In their victory over Calgary, San Jose was outshot 35-18 and won 5-4. In reality, they were just as close to going 2-4 over that span as opposed to 5-1. Had that been the case, we would be discussing them as a dog here and not as the chalk. Once again, the market recognizes wins and losses, which often provides us with opportunity.
The Coyotes are the least watched team in the NHL. They’re a small market team playing in the desert and they get very little exposure. When they were winning, most bettors weren’t buying it. Now that they’re losing, bettors are eating it up. Arizona has dropped three in a row to Detroit, New Jersey and Buffalo, which lowers its market value even more. We say bring it on. Arizona outshot New Jersey 38-16 and lost 2-0. They outshot Detroit 29-25 and had a 2-0 lead with six minutes left before losing in OT, 3-2. Against Buffalo, they lost 2-1 but played another good game. You will not find a team that works harder or wants to win more than these Coyotes. You would be hard-pressed to find a better-coached team as well. The Coyotes currently own a 10-1-2 record vs. Pacific Division teams this season and have the fewest regulation losses (1) against teams inside their own division in the NHL. The ‘Yotes have outscored Pacific division opponents 43-28 through 13 games and they have earned point in 10 straight games against division teams. San Jose is a division opponent that has not faced the Coyotes yet this year.
WINNIPEG +118 over Nashville
OT included. This past Tuesday the New York Rangers outshot Vancouver 49-22 and needed a goal late in the third to tie it before winning it in OT. The Montreal Canadiens outshot Boston 39-23 and lost 4-1. The Predators outshot Chicago 39-27 and also lost 4-1. The point is that if we had a crystal ball that could forecast which goaltender was going to play better in each game, we’d be laughing all the way to the bank because 80% or more of all NHL games are decided by goaltending. Tuesday’s results were not an anomaly. It was a typical night in the NHL when there is a full slate of games. That brings us to this game where it’s likely going to be Connor Hellebuyck versus All-Star Pekka Rinne. The chances of the rookie playing better than the veteran is as close to 100% as it can get. That doesn’t mean the Jets will win because it’s quite possible that the Preds outshoot the Jets 50-22 and win 5-4. However, if the Jets outshoot the Preds or it’s close, Winnipeg’s win expectation skyrockets and here’s why:
Pekka Rinne’s save percentages in his last five games have been .885, .792, .870, .846 and .824. Prior to that, his save percentage in three of his previous four games was .844, .897 and .870. Since the beginning of November, Rinne’s save percentage is the worst in the league and it’s by a landslide. Rinne has one road victory over his last 12 road starts. This isn’t a slump folks. This is a goaltender that cannot keep up with the speed of the game anymore. When Rinne makes a save it is a positional one. He’s a big guy and covers a lot of the net but he’s not NHL caliber anymore, nor is he minor league caliber. The Nashville Predators are a great hockey team. If they weren’t, they would be losing by five goals every night but they limit the opposition’s chances to give them a chance. Thing is, losing takes a toll. At some point the player’s mentality shifts to frustration to the point of not working as hard. Pekka Rinne is the ONLY reason that Nashville loses so many games and with him in net, the Preds win expectation is low because they rarely win with one every five shots going in. Despite that, this game is priced like Nashville has a better shot of winning. They don’t. Not with that All-Star in goal and thus, the fade continues.
Carolina +112 over TORONTO
OT included. The Maple Leafs snapped a five-game losing streak with a win in Philadelphia last game out. Still, it was the first time in six games that Toronto scored more than twice and it was also another game in which the Maple Leafs allowed too many high quality chances. Furthermore, two Maple Leafs, Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick, both scored their first goals of the year so it’s not like Toronto’s go-to guys broke out. Give Mike Babcock high marks for completely changing the work ethic of this team. Give the players high marks for taking complete responsibility for the way they play and for bringing it almost every single night. What the Leafs lack in talent they have more than made up for in their work ethic. However, we’ll apply to the Maple Leafs what we apply to many teams, which is that Toronto is not well-suited to be in the favorite’s role. On their best day, Toronto has a 50/50 chance of winning. The Leafs are still a bottom five team in Corsi against and they are second last in the league in shots against per game during five-on-five play.
The Hurricanes are coming off perhaps their worst effort of the year on Sunday when they lost 5-0 to Pittsburgh in a game they allowed 32 shots on net in. Amazingly, Carolina has allowed 32 shots or more on net a league low six times this season. Carolina leads the league in shots against per game, they lead the league in fewest penalty minutes, they lead the league in face-off percentage and they are a top-5 team in several other below the surface stats. The ‘Canes possess the numbers of a juggernaut without the scoring. They possess the numbers that made the New Jersey Devils a powerhouse for years but they don’t have the goaltending that the Devils had when they were winning Cups. Cam Ward was injured and has been put on the IR. That leaves Eddie Lack taking over the duties. Lack has not been good this season. He’s been mostly back-up to Ward and when he has been called upon, he’s been shaky for the most part. However, when he was with the Canucks and had a defining role, whether it was back-up or starter, he thrived. He has not had a defining role in Carolina but with Ward out for an extended period of time, Lack will get that defining role that he may need to thrive. Lack is 1-0-0 with a 0.64 GAA in two career games against Toronto and the Hurricanes have always played some of their best hockey in this building. Carolina has not lost a season series to the Leafs in nine years. They swept them last year and have scored four goals or more against Toronto in 13 of the past 26 meetings. Lastly, every single player on the Carolina bench knows how important this game is to their coach Bill Peters. Peters was mentored by Mike Babcock and he has great respect for the Leafs bench boss. This is “student versus teacher” and the best way to repay a mentor that has taught you so much and opened so many doors for you is to show up with a team that plays the way the teacher taught you they should play. That’s exactly how the Hurricanes play and they have the superior personnel in this game to execute it.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARKANSAS +3 over Kentucky
The Wildcats are no longer the elite squad that the market thinks they are. Regardless of whatever rationale plaudits, analysts and backers will use to support their wagers, the ‘Cats have shown a far more humanistic element to them this year. When comparing this year’s team to last year’s, it is night and day when you consider the supernatural run that John Calipari’s crew was on just a year ago. The radical change has been mainly in part to an unprecedented six players moving on to be selected in the 2015 NBA Draft. Kentucky is now in re-building mode but most will see this line as a steal given the reputation that Calipari and Kentucky have carved out for themselves on the national stage.
The ‘Cats are coming in here off a tough 75-70 road loss against Auburn, a game that typically would have been a walk in the park for Kentucky. Auburn entered the match on an 18-game losing streak against the ‘Cats and below .500 at the onset of the match. It is simply a direct reflection of the effect that this mass exodus of talent has had on the Kentucky program. Kentucky has already suffered four defeats. They lost at UCLA and LSU. They also lost at home to Ohio State. Three of their four losses have been on the road and Arkansas has been a perpetual thorn in the side of Big Blue. The ‘Cats are currently are on a two-game winning streak against Arkansas but that was achieved at the hands of a historic squad that dissected every basketball club in its path over the course of the 2015-16 regular season. Now with Kentucky coming back down to Earth and this being the first collision between both squads this year, Kentucky has never been more vulnerable. Previous to Kentucky’s brush with immortality last year, the Hogs had established dominance over Big Blue by winning three straight against this college basketball blue blood.
Arkansas is sporting a sparkling 8-1 record at home. Arkansas’ sole defeat at home was at the hands of Mercer in overtime and while Mercer may not be a SEC club that the Hogs face on an annual basis, the Bears are certainly a talented team, currently sporting an excellent 14-4 record. Let’s forget all of the above for a second and focus elsewhere. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest for a second that the Razorbacks are the superior team here. After all, Arkansas has played a weak schedule and they’re not dominating. There are times in every sport where recognizing a trap game is just as important as recognizing a big advantage to one side or the other. Thursday night is typically a night when the mid-majors and smaller conferences go head to head. It’s not like last night where there were a slew of ranked teams and power conference teams facing off against one another, thus giving this market plenty of recognizable games to choose from. On a Thursday night with no football, the attention now shifts to NCAAB with this game sticking out like a sore thumb among many others that nobody cares about. The oddsmakers are fully aware of the attention this game will get in the market. They idea behind setting the number is to attract equal action on both sides to make it a 50/50 proposition. The oddmakers could have set this game at -5 or -6 in an attempt to attract equal action. At -2½ (that’s where it opened), the linesmakers were 100% aware that this game would attract one-sided action and they not only welcomed it, they embraced it. That’s all the info we need to pull the trigger on this contrarian side.
SPS Investors
Southern California vs. Oregon
Pick: Southern California
The USC Trojans have been one of the surprise teams this season compiling a 15-3 overall record and are currently 4-1 in Pac 12 play. The Trojans have been getting stellar play on both sides of the ball and have built a solid resume thus far with wins over the likes of Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA. The Trojans are a team that loves to control tempo and push the pace of the game and that will lend well in this contest with the offensive minded Oregon Ducks. The Trojans currently rank 11th in the nation in scoring offense and currently have 6 players averaging in double figures scoring with Jordan McLaughlin leading the way averaging 13.5 points per game.
Their opponents tonight, the Oregon Ducks are currently one of the Top teams in the Pac 12. They are 14-4 on the season and come into this contest undefeated and a perfect 13-0 on their home floor. The Ducks are not as proficient on the offensive end as their opponents as they rank just 123rd in the nation is scoring offense with only 4 players are averaging in double figures for the Ducks. Where they have really shined however has been on the defensive end where they are ranked 61st in the country in total defense.
This should be an extremely entertaining battle. USC has the talent and the offensive to give the Ducks a run for their money and potentially pull off the upset and hand them their first loss on their home court. We expect a closely contested battle throughout and while the Ducks may escape with the victory, we expect the Trojans to keep things close which will make the points valuable in this contest.
Ken Thomson
Arkansas +3.5
Just don't like the way the Cats are playing on the road and the Hogs are starting to get rolling in Fayetteville. Mike Anderson has Arkansas playing good team ball and Bud Walton Arena will be rocking tonight. Kentucky is living on their name and did play a nice game against an Alabama team that is still offensively challenged at times although Avery Johnson is trying to change that. Anton Beard has been back for several games now for the Razorbacks and along with sharp shooter Dusty Hannahs & Anthlon Bell this trio combines for 47% from Trifecta range. Moses Kingsley must play smart inside for the Hogs and stay out of foul trouble. He averages ( 17 ppg / 9 RB ) and needs to keep Poythress and company from getting multiple shots for the Wildcats. Tyler Ulis is still dangerous for Calipari's Boys but he is shooting just 28% behind the stripe. Jamal Murray is Kentucky's go to guy and the Hogs will need to keep him under wraps some what. Never easy to go against Kentucky but they are just ( 1-3 ) on the road this season and I think the Hogs could win this one straight up!
Jeff Saad
Detroit at New Orleans
Play: Under
Detroit is a strong defensive teams and they face a banged up New Orleans squad. The under is 39-15-1 in the Pelicans last 55 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. And when these teams meet the under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in New Orleans.
Greg Smith
Western Kentucky at Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -9
I believe with most of their team back from a 26 win season, they are the best team in the conference, but yet they have managed to drop two consecutive games at home. NOW....they get a third crack at it with W. Kentucky. Bottom line, teams with this much talent don't lose 3 games in a row at home. Bad timing for the Hilltoppers, great opportunity for us. Old Dominion wins by double digits.
Ian Cameron
Calgary at Columbus
Play: Over 5.5
Columbus saw its last game against Washington fly over the total with ease in what ended up being a 6-3 final score in the return of the Jackets' top netminder Sergei Bobrovsky. He was obviously very rusty in his first start since returning from a groin injury surrendering five goals (the 6th Washington goal was an empty net tally) on 28 shots. It’s worth noting that Bobrovsky struggled very early in the season before starting to find his form so it could take time for him to be at his best and Calgary’s offense is still fully capable of exploiting struggling defensive squads and questionable goaltending like what we often see with Columbus. On the flip side, Columbus while not being a potent offensive team by any stretch, may be able to score some goals themselves as they put in three goals and fired 35 shots on net against a very strong defensive Washington squad. Calgary doesn’t resemble Washington in that department with the Flames allowing exactly three goals per game ranking them 29th in the NHL. Karri Ramo will be back in between the pipes after a three-game absence due to an illness and even though he was playing well before he got sick, he may be thrown a little bit out of rhythm. It tends to be a bit more difficult for a goalie to be sharp after being out due to either injury or illness so the Blue Jackets should be able to build on what was a solid offensive showing against the Capitals. Play this one over the total.
Dr. Bob
North Texas (+14/+13.5*) over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
North Texas could use a change of scenery after losing and failing to cover in back-to-back home games last week. Middle Tennessee State, meanwhile, is due for a letdown as a big home favorite after an upset road win at Old Dominion that extended their win streak to 4 games. Road underdogs of 8 points or more are 58% ATS since 1990 after losing straight up and to the spread in consecutive home games and visiting a team on a winning streak and North Texas applies to an 83-29-4 ATS subset of that angle. Meanwhile, conference home favorites of 13 points or more are just 78-135 ATS after winning straight up as a road underdog and hosting a team on a losing streak. My ratings favor MTS by 14 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take North Texas in a 1-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and lean with the Mean Green down to +13.
Opinion - UTSA (+3) over Florida International
UTSA is a bad team but the Roadrunners have improved since PG Christian Wilson became eligible to play in mid-December. San Antonio’s upset home win over UTEP, combined with FIU’s upset home loss to Southern Miss, sets up the Roadrunners in a 77-29-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation today and my ratings favor FIU by 3 points, so the line is fair. I’ll lean with UTSA at +3 or more and I’d take UT San Antonio in a 1-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.