Bruce Marshall
Arkansas +2
Suddenly-vulnerable Kentucky (only 2-2 last 4 SEC outings) is still not getting steady production from its underperforming "bigs." So in a near-pick 'em scenario, unafraid to side with athletic, fast-paced U of A (83 ppg), which possesses the most dangerous post scorer in formidable 6-10 jr. C Moses Kingsley (16.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg). Moreover, the Hogs' accurate long-range snipers, Gs Dusty Hannahs & Anthon Bell, figure to exploit the Wildcats' defense, which allowed Auburn to nail 12 of 26 treys in UK's 75-70 upset loss on The Plains Saturday.
Dave Essler
Arkansas +3
Most Vegas books have +3 and many offshores (the sharper ones) have +2.5 - I'd buy it if I had to. Looks to me like people are assuming Kentucky is simply going to wake up and pound the Hogs. From experience we know that Arkansas at home is a very, very good team - and we know that everyone has more experience than the Wildcats - Arkansas MUCH more, and they may remember getting drilled twice by Kentucky last season. This is a Hogs team that took Dayton to overtime on the road and beat Vanderbilt here at home, so winning here is far from a stretch. Hawkins (Kentucky) is listed as questionable and hasn't played in three weeks, so what shape is he in if he does? Humphries hasn't played in almost two months - so there's your 7' length advantage, gone. Kentucky has Vanderbilt Saturday - tough spot here, IMO. Briscoe and Marcus Lee BOTH shoot less than 40% (not a misprint) from the line. The Hogs will play fast and fast teams are the ones that have given Kentucky issues. Four losses - all up-tempo teams (or more than the Wildcats) and two conference losses to LSU and Auburn who both play MUCH faster, as do the Hogs. Arkansas needs to make a few three's (they shoot well over 40% from deep) and have the length on the wing - both Hannahs and Bell are bigger than Ulis and may be guarded be Freshman (Briscoe/Murray). Arkansas has experience inside with Kingsley (and some length) and they've got Kouasi at 6'10" to eat up a few minutes and fouls, and against a team that misses free throws. Kentucky's offensive efficiency in SEC play is #3 - Arkansas is #2. Kentucky is 7th in the SEC in turnover % (hate that on the road) while Arkansas is #1 in NOT turning it over (love that at home). Kentucky's three point defense has been horsesh*t since SEC play started - Arkansas has actually shot FIFTY% from behind the arc in the SEC. If we had been rolling - this would be a large play. Let's just see what happens.
OC Dooley
Memphis / Cincinnati Over 134
After playing “below” the total at a 7-2 clip the Bearcats of Cincinnati finally played an OVER back on Saturday (67-65 tilt with a spot of 126’ points) courtesy of DOUBLE-OVERTIME. In that road affair Devin Coleman was the hero with THREE POINT accuracy and enters this tilt with newfound confidence. For those who watch this ESPN2 telecast keep an eye out for Memphis big man Shaq Goodwin whose “offense rating” (115.9) is basically the envy of the greater Midwest. Memphis is 11-3 OVER/ROAD when the total is between 130-and-134’ points. Meanwhile dating all the way back to the 1997 campaign when off consecutive games where the defense held the opposition to less than 38 percent shooting from the field Cincinnati is 9-1 OVER/HOME making the sheer location of tonight’s game critical