Brett Atkins
Tonight I'm on the NBA hardwood for a free selection on the Nuggets as they host the Clippers.
Both these teams are coming into this one tired after late-night games in California on Wednesday. The Nuggets were in rain-soaked Oakland taking on the Warriors while the Clippers were at home against the Bulls. Now they both arrive in Denver for this one and with a more talented starting lineup and the home crowd, I’m going to lay the chalk with the Nuggets.
The Nuggets had won seven straight over the Clippers until their first game of this season when the Clips scored a 106-99 home win as nine-point underdogs. Denver had been on a 6-3 ATS run and just demolished the Clippers every time they met last season.
Denver has the good mix of veterans and young legs that will help them on the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve got guys like Nene and Arron Afflalo in the starting lineup that can get up and down the court and then the mix of vets in Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony that know how to conserve energy and know how to put the ball in the basket. These two combined for 66 points in a 119-112 win over Utah the last time they were home on Sunday.
The Clippers are horrible on the road, having lost seven straight (2-5 ATS). They allow a whopping 107 points a game over their last five, and when facing Denver at home, you’ve got to know a scoring onslaught is coming as they put up 113.1 points a game at home and shoot 48.8 percent from the floor.
The Nuggets have cashed in four of the last five visits by the Clippers and they are on ATS runs of 6-2 on Thursdays and 45-17-2 as a home favorite of 5 to 10 ½ points. Look for the Nuggets to deliver a big-time beating tonight. Play Denver.
4♦ DENVER
Jay McNeil
The Nuggets won Wednesday at Golden State, but they fell a basketball short of covering the points. That stuck me with a loss with my free play, dropping my record to 17-12 over the last 29 days, but I'll be back with a vengeance today!
Washington is averaging 80.7 ppg, and now they are going to face a UCLA team that has lost three of its last four games, and the one victory was by a point in overtime at California.
The Huskies have covered in their last five games against the Bruins, and they have two players in forward Quincy Pondexter (20.3 ppg, 7.9 rebounds) and guard Isaiah Thomas (18.2 ppg) that are going to pose matchup problems for UCLA.
The Bruins are scoring just 66.9 ppg, and they are missing big man Drew Gordon, who left UCLA last month to transfer to New Mexico. They don't have enough depth to keep up tonight with the Huskies.
UCLA is sitting a the bottom of the Pac-10, and the Huskies are going to keep them there. Take Washington to cover the points on the road tonight.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Joel Tyson
Long Beach was able to hang on for a 2-point home win over Cal Irvine earlier this month, but they were unable to cover that one, as they were laying a 7-points in that game.
I think the main reason the 49ers were unable to extend the final margin was because they had just played 5 straight games on the road prior to that home contest. Still, Long Beach was able to win their 3rd in a row over the 8-10 Ant Eaters.
Both schools are 8-10 for the year, but it should be noted the 49ers have played Notre Dame, West Virginia, Clemson, Duke, and Kentucky!
That early seasoning is about to pay dividends.
I will go with the visiting 49ers to once again handle their conference brother.
5♦ LONG BEACH STATE
LT Profits
Butler @ Loyola Chicago
This posted total between the Butler Bulldogs and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers seems a tad high when you consider the home vs. away splits for both of these teams this year.
The home standing Ramblers are allowing 65.7 points per game on 42.2 percent shooting overall this season, but they improve on those already nice figures when thye play at home. They are allowing a miniscule 59.5 points per game at the Gentile Center, and they have surrendered 62 points or less in four of their last five games. Furthermore, they are averaging a rather low 63.0 points at home offensively, for a combined average total of 122.5 points in their home games.
Not to be outdone, Butler is allowing 57.7 points per game on a microscopic 39.5 percent shooting on the road. It is no wonder that the Bulldogs have gone 5-1 in their true road games, and they allowed only 67 points in their lone road defeat at UAB. Butler road games are averaging a combined 122.4 points overall, which is right on par with the Ramblers home average and also where we expect this game to top out at.
Finally, the Pomeroy Ratings show that Butler is allowing .933 points per possession after adjusting for schedule, ranking 63 in the country, while their offense is down a bit from the great Bulldog teams of recent years, a combination that is very conducive to lots of Unders.
Add in the fine Ramblers home defensive numbers and look for another Under tonight.
Pick: Butler/Loyola-Chicago Under 127
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Indiana/Penn State UNDER 132
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (INDIANA) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite are 30-6 since 1997. The average posted total for these games has been 135.2 points and we are seeing the average combined score total 127.9 points. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under for 1 Unit.
Rocketman
NY Rangers @ Philadelphia
Play: NY Rangers +120
NY Rangers are 24-26 overall this year but have a winning record on the road at 12-11. Philadelphia is 2-7 this year after a non-conference game. NY Rangers have won a couple in a row easily by scores of 6-2 and 8-2. NY Rangers are 6-2 SU and ATS at Philadelphia the past 3 years. Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 road games. Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Flyers are 4-11 in their last 15 games playing on 1 days rest. Flyers are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Flyers are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Flyers are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Flyers are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Flyers are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Rangers are 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Philadelphia. Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Road team is 23-10 in the last 33 meetings. Underdog is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Rangers tonight!
Ben Burns
St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
Both teams are playing well. The Blues have won five of six. The Senators have won four straight. In addition to playing on home ice, the Sens have the schedule in their favor though. After beating a very good Chicago team on Tuesday, they had last night off. The Blues, on the other hand, are coming off a hard-fought (OT) win at Montreal last night. That's significant, as we find them at just 2-7 (-5.9) when playing the second of back to back games. Additionally, note that the Sens have six wins, one loss and one tie the last eight meetings in this series, inlcuding four straight victories. With the Sens also at a profitable 15-6 (+7.4) on the season, when playing a home game with an o/u line of 5.5, consider laying the wood.
Larry Ness
Florida @ Arkansas
PICK: Arkansas +1
Billy Donovan led the Gators to two straight NCAA titles in 2006 and 2007 and then took a job with the Orlando Magic. He had a change of heart just a few days later and returned to Gainesville. I doubt he and the Gator faithful expected two consecutive NIT appearances but that's exactly what the Gators have delivered these past two seasons. The 6-6 Nick Calathes (17.2-5.3-6.4) left after his sophomore season and four-year player Hodge (was a reserve on the two title teams and averaged 9.7 PPG his last two seasons) graduated. The two leave a large hole. Freshman guard Boynton (14.6-3.2-3.5) and 6-10 Georgetown transfer Macklin (10.1-5.5) have been excellent additions but after an 8-0 start, which included a 77-74 win over then-No. 2 Michigan St, the Gators have gone 4-5 (1-2 start in the SEC). Walker (12.1-3.1-5.0), a 5-8 sophomore guard, joins Boynton in the backcourt with the 6-9 Parsons (11.0-6.2) and the 6-8 Werner (6.2-4.4) returning up front to join Macklin. The Gators allowed 95 points in their lone SEC road game at Vandy, as the 'Dores shot 52.5 percent. Florida may just have trouble again here, as the Razorbacks have welcomed Courtney Fortson back after he was suspended before the year began. Pelphrey reinstated the talented sophomore guard for the team's January 5 game with Texas and Fortson has wasted little time getting acclimated, averaging about 35 minutes and posting 14.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 5.9 APG in his three contests. He joins fellow sophomore guard Clarke (18.4) in the backcourt plus two double-digit scorers up front, 6-7 freshman Powell (15.9-6.8) and 6-9 senior Washington (13.7-5.9). Arkansas collapsed last year after a 12-1 start, finishing 14-16 with a 2-14 league mark (2-15 if one includes the team's first-round SEC tourney loss). However, I expect the 8-9 Razorbacks to play well in the second half of this year and this is a game Arkansas can win, unlike the team's meeting in Lexington this Saturday with No. 1 in waiting Kentucky. Take the Razorbacks.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Arkansas Razorbacks +1
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Gators are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Arkansas. The Razorbacks have covered the spread in 4 straight games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Gators have only played 3 true road games this season, which makes walking into tonight's environment even tougher as the Razorbacks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Also, Coach Pelphrey's teams are on a 14-4 ATS run as a home underdog or pick. We'll take Arkansas at home for 1 Unit.
John Ryan
Washington State vs. USC
Play: USC -7.5
3* graded play on Southern Cal as they host Washington State set to start at 10:30 EST. Our handicapping model clearly shows that USC is the dominant team and will win this game by 12 or more points. The main reason why is attributed to the Trojan defense. They have allowed less than 40% shooting in 8 of the past 11 games. Trojans are also a very sound rebounding team and WSU has not well against similar opponents. They are just 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus good rebounding teams that are out rebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. Take Southern Cal.
Craig Trapp
Washington U vs. UCLA
Play: Washington -4
The Huskies were supposed to pretty much walk thru the PAC 10 this year but that has not been the case. But the last two games have been wins against half way decent Stanford and California. UCLA on the other hand was suppossed to struggle a little going into the season but not have a losing season. UCLA is just not athletic enough to cover Isiagh Thomas of Washington. That will cause a ton of defensive breakdowns as Thomas gets rest of the team going. Not sure this ones even close as Washington can score 80 plus when they are on against a team in UCLA that struggles to get to 60 points.
Tom Freese
San Diego at St. Marys
Prediction: St. Marys
Saint Mary's is 16-3 overall and 3-1 in Conference play. The Gaels are led by future NBA player Omar Samham and his 21.7 points a game and 10.7 rebounds a game. Guard Matthew Dellavedova scores 13 points a game while shooting .43.5% from behind the line. Mickey Mc Connell is a guard who shoots .521 % from behind the three point line and dishes out 5.9 helpers. Guard Wayne Hunter scores 11 points a night while shooting .39.1% with his 3 point shots. Center Ben Allen scores 10.1 points a game while pulling down 7.5 rebounds a night. The Gaels are very balanced and they shoot .415 from behind the line. San Diego is 8-12 overall and 1-3 in Conference Play. The Toreros have just two double figure scorers. Guard Brandon leads the team in scoring with 15.7 points a game. Guard De'jon Jackson scores 12.8 points a game. Simply put this is a real bad team. They average just over 63 points a game an allow 82 points a game. Simply put this is men against boys PLAY ON ST MARY'S
Nelly
North Texas - over South Alabama
North Texas is coming off a tough home loss and this should be a bounce back spot for the Mean Green. South Alabama snapped a three game losing streak with a win over Troy last weekend and this could be a tough situation to go back on the road. The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings between these teams and North Texas has covered in the last three overall. North Texas has a worse record in this match-up but the schedule has been tough and there have been only four lined home games for the Mean Green this year.
Triple Threat Sports
Washington over UCLA
Our Power Ratings for this game show the Huskies as five to seven points better, even on the road, and UW deeper and more athletic team than Bruins this season. We like our chances with the fundamental edge and Power Ratings projection, so lay the small number here.
King Creole
Indiana +10 vs Penn St.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have YET to win a Conference game in the Big Ten thus far this season (0-5 SU). NOW…. They're asked to cover a DOUBLE-DIGIT spread in tonight's game. No way…. Off a 5-game losing streak, we'll gladly fade these 'pussy cats' on Thursday. And we'll be riding a confident Hoosier bunch that just pulled off a big home upset win as a double-digit Underdog.
Want some motivation? You got it! INDIANA comes into this one with TRIPLE-Revenge from last season. They lost both regular season games to Penn State… and lost in the Big 10 Conference Tourney too…
In the last 3 seasons, DOUBLE-DIGIT Conference Underdogs playing with TRIPLE-Revenge from the previous year are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS (INDIANA) vs any opponent off a SU favorite loss (Penn State).
That big home win over Michigan a few days ago puts the Hoosiers in confident (and PROFITABLE!) company.
7-1 ATS last 5 years: All Conference road dogs of 11 < points playing off a SU home conference win in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT Underdog (INDIANA).
Let's put together the particulars in regards to each team's last game: A team off a FAVORITE loss… vs a team off a DOG win.1-8 ATS this season: All Conference home teams playing off a Conference favorite loss (Penn State)… versus an opponent off a Conference underdog win (INDIANA).