Ian Cameron
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Valparaiso at Youngstown State
Play: Youngstown State -4
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Very good matchup in the Horizon League tonight between a pair of teams that sport identical 3-2 conference records. I am going to side with the home team as the Penguins have surged to a 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS mark in their last three games notching wins against UIC, Cleveland State and Detroit. Youngstown State is playing at its best right now but you could argue that Valparaiso is too as they enter off back-to-back wins against Detroit and Milwaukee. This however will be the Crusaders’ toughest foe of that group.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The key to success against Valpo is being able to score because the Crusaders have been a potent offensive club for years. Youngstown State has certainly the ability to put the ball in the basket. The Penguins have connected at a blistering 47.9% shooting from the floor in their last five games. Kendrick Perry who leads the Horizon League in scoring at 21.2 ppg has carried the mail for Youngstown State. The Penguins feature four players in their starting rotation that average double digits and D.J. Cole isn’t far behind at 8.5 ppg. Youngstown State is by no means a lockdown defensive squad but the Penguins have managed to show improvement on that end of the court recently holding teams to 71.6 points per game and a very low 28.6% from the perimeter. Being able to shut off the 3-point shot is important against a Valpo team that has connected at a near 40% clip from 3-point range in their last five games. Valpo is much more reliant on one or two players for their offensive success as LaVonte Dority and Alec Peters are the only starters averaging double figures.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Youngstown State has built up a fairly solid track record on their home court entering this contest at 7-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS (note they have only had 4 lined home games). The Penguins got a nice 80-68 home win against a better Crusaders team last year and I expect a repeat performance tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Stanford +6
This is too many points for the Cardinal to be receiving against a struggling Bruins team. UCLA is coming off a loss to Utah last weekend, and they are 2-2 in their last four games against Pac-12 opponents. Stanford comes into this matchup having won three consecutive games, including a victory over then ranked No. 17 Oregon. Stanford is shooting 49.1 percent from the field and averaging 77 points per game, so they should have no problem keeping pace with UCLA in this matchup.
The Bruins have benefit from a fairly soft schedule this season. Aside from their three games against ranked opponents, losing two of those three, UCLA has not played many talented teams. Stanford on the other hand has played tough games against BYU, Pitt, Michigan and Cal just to name a few of their unranked opponents. These teams have similar records, and are evenly matched in several key statistical categories. The fact that the Cardinal have played a much stronger schedule tells me they are actually the better team in this game.
Steve Rosen
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. NY Islanders
Play: NY Islanders +119
The New York Islanders vie for their third win in a row when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday. The Islanders began their stretch with a 4-3 shootout win in the back end of a home-and-home series with Philadelphia on Monday before skating to a 5-3 triumph versus the New York Rangers the following night. The Islanders are a great value spot here and the Penguins ail be tired after last night's easy win. They will have a chip on their shoulder against a good team tonight!
Red Dog Sports
Georgia State vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: UL-Lafayette
Both teams have been playing well lately. ULL is led by Long, who is 6'9" and scoring 20.8 ppg and 10.6 rebounds. He also has 52 blocks. Payton is at 19.7 ppg, 5.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists. This looks to be a close game as Georgia State is finally playing up to their potential as they are led by the coach's son (Hunter). I think we see the home team win by 4 points and cover.
Jack Jones
Ohio State Buckeyes -11
The Ohio State Buckeyes are going to come out with an attitude at home tonight. They will not only want to win, but to send a message that they are still one of the best teams in the country despite their recent struggles.
After opening 15-0, the Buckeyes have lost four straight and have been hearing about it through the media. Three of the four came on the road where it's extremely difficult to win in the Big Ten. One of those was in overtime to Michigan State.
Ohio State will be looking forward to getting back on track in blowout fashion against an Illinois team that has simply been overmatched in Big Ten play recently. It has lost four straight as well, but fell 70-95 at Wisconsin and 62-78 at home against Michigan State to really show where this team stands among the top squads in the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.9 points per game. Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (OHIO ST) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS since 1997. Bet Ohio State Thursday.
Doug Upstone
Los Angeles Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks -147
Anaheim has been playing good hockey, winning nine of their last eleven contests. They have outscored their opponents by a goal and after 52 games, that isn't a fluke. Los Angeles is on a three game skid, scoring only seven goals. They wrap up a five game road trip tonight. A small play on the puckline (Anaheim -1.5 +210) is advised as well for added value. Play the Ducks on Thursday night.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Lakers +11½
The Lakers have quietly covered the spread in five straight games, all in the underdog role, and they are being undervalued again tonight. Miami is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over its last seven games, and it clearly isn't the same team without Dwyane Wade, who is expected to sit out again tonight. The Heat are 6-6 when Wade sits out. Miami's defense hasn't been very good lately, and that's an issue as it goes up against a L.A. squad that has averaged 110.2 points over its last five games. The Heat have allowed five of their last seven opponents to shoot 46.5 percent or better. Three of these opponents shot better than 51.0 percent. You want to fade home favorites of 10 points or more that average 103.0 ppg or more when they are up against a team that has reached the century mark in four straight games. Doing so has produced a 27-6 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS -½ +120 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. The Jackets are the hottest team in the NHL and the rest of the East should be on notice to try and avoid this team in the first round of the playoffs at all costs. Columbus has moved into eighth place in the East by winning seven in a row. They have scored four goals or more in five of those seven games and that includes five goals against the Kings and four against the Rangers. The last time the Jackets lost a game was back on January 4 against the Blue Notes. Columbus now has a chance to leapfrog over Philadelphia in the standings with a win here and we have no clue how the Flyers will prevent that.
Philadelphia played last night against Carolina in a game that was scheduled for Tuesday but was postponed due to weather. However, the Flyers mentally prepared for Tuesday and had to go through it again yesterday in what was supposed to be an off day. Now they get right back at it today, making this feel like three games in three days. Since January 11, just 12 days ago, Philadelphia has played seven games and this will be its eighth game in 12 days but it’s going to feel like their ninth game in 12 days. Philadelphia is an exhausted hockey team that is not only on a grueling schedule but is traveling to play the hottest team in the league. With weak goaltending, weak defense and running on fumes, this has to be considered one of the best situational spots of the season and as a result, we’re going to step it up for 3 units as opposed to our usual 2.
Nashville +144 over VANCOUVER
Please Note: We will not place this wager until we know for sure Devan Dubnyk is in goal. If Dubnyk does not get this start we are not pulling the trigger.
OT included. Forget the Predators record this season because they lost their #1 goaltender, Pekka Rinne nine games into the season and they did not have a plan B. As a result, GM David Poile was forced to stick with two inexperienced goalies and suffered the predictably bad results. The Preds have lost so many games this year because of inadequate goaltending otherwise they would be right in the thick of the playoff race and not eight points behind Minnesota. Ask any GM in the league which roster they would rather have between Nashville’s and Minnesota’s and 28 out of 30 would say Nashville (Minnesota’s GM Doug Risebrough and Calgary’s GM Brian Burke would say Minnesota because Risebrough has to and Burke is just an idiot). The point is that this Nashville team is as good as or better than many teams above them in the standings but its goaltending has made them unplayable from a betting perspective. The acquisition of Devan Dubnyk changes that. Dubnyk’s .895 save percentage and 3.36 GAA is misleading. He played behind an atrocious defense that has been constantly leaving him hung out to dry for years. No goaltender could thrive under those circumstances for an extended period of time but all those difficult saves and bombardment of shots is very likely going to serve this talented goaltender well. Preds coach Barry Trotz openly stated that Dubnyk picked up a lot of “bad habits” in Edmonton but goaltending guru coach Mitch Korn has a had a few days to work with Dubnyk. The formula now becomes: goalie who is much better than his numbers + traditionally strong defensive team + serious motivation from everyone to win = profit.
Those soft goals the Predators rookie goalies were surrendering almost every game becomes deflating for a team that works so hard and trust us when we tell you that the Predators are one of the hardest working teams in the NHL. They had a bad season a year ago and as a result, the front office went to work in the off-season. The Predators snapped up seemingly every available above average second and third line forward on the market. They’ve got a serious surplus of quality forwards, which allows them to run out four quality lines and beat up on tired opponents late in games. In a league with increasing parity, depth rules, and the versatile Predators forwards have that in spades. On the back-end Shea Weber remains the second best defenseman on planet earth while Roman Josi is coming into his own and learning how to control games. Seth Jones is handling big minutes and he’s thriving in doing so. The Predators are a small market team that gets very little press or exposure. They have become irrelevant this season due to their poor record but all of a sudden, with the addition of Dubnyk, they instantly become the most undervalued team in the NHL. Against a beatable Canucks team, we’ll test that out right away.
Winnipeg +192 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The San Jose Sharks have been winning consistently the entire season The Sharks are warm once again with four wins in a row and five wins in their past six games. They’re not overpriced here and they’re not an under the radar team either. At home, they have been near flawless with 17 wins in 22 games. This is not about fading the Sharks.
Winnipeg looks like a different team since Paul Maurice took over. Since the firing of Claude Noel, Winnipeg is 4-0 and has outscored the opposition 16-7. The Jets defense, which is one of the most talented groups in the league, has made a couple of adjustments and they’re suddenly playing like the rest of the league owes them money. Winnipeg withstood a late comeback attempt by the Ducks and unlike games in the past, they were not running around trying to hold on for dear life in the dying minutes. The Jets closed it out in impressive fashion and became the first team this year to defeat the Ducks in regulation at the Honda Civic Center. Defeating the Ducks and Sharks in back-to-back road games is not an easy assignment. However, the Jets are playing with a new-found confidence and they’re playing too good to ignore at this price. Would another victory surprise? Not at all.
Pass NBA & CBB
Sam Martin
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
This line feels like a trap with Portland listed as high as they are, but we're not biting and we'll lay the points with the Trailblazers as they return home where they have been dominant this season. Blazers coming off a four-game road trip that ended with back-to-back losses at Houston and Oklahoma City, but back home they are 16-4 straight up winning by seven points per game.
Denver's defense has been terrible of late, allowing 118, 116, 117, and 117 points in their last four games overall, and with both teams preferring an uptempo style of play we can only imagine how many they'll give up tonight. Portland eager to get back on track after those two straight losses, and we'll back them to win by a comfortable margin here.
LT Profits
Eastern Illinois vs Tennessee-Martin
Pick: Eastern Illinois +3.5
The Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks are ranked 338th in the country in defensive efficiency, they are dead last among the 351 Division I teams in two-point defense allowing a dreadful 58.8 percent success rate with no player taller than 6-foot-7 and the are last in the Ohio Valley Conference West Division with a 1-5 conference mark. And they are the favorites here! The Eastern Illinois Panthers faced a good non-conference schedule ranked 80th in SOS compared to 202nd for the Tennessee-Martin non-conference SOS, and the Panthers can move up to second in the West Division at 4-4 with a win tonight. Home court has not meant much to Martin as it is 4-5 straight up here, and the Eastern Illinois had no problems the last time it visited Martin in a 93-65 romp. This line seems over-adjusted for home court. Tennessee-Martin is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win.
L.A. Lakers vs Miami
Pick: Under 210
Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra was none too happy about the defensive effort of Miami during a 2-4 road trip, so the Heat put an emphasis on that in their first home game back vs. the Celtics Tuesday, holding Boston to 39.3 percent shooting in a 93-86 triumph. Then again the Heat have been holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage at home than on the road all season, yielding a 44.8 percent success rate here. The Heat did do a good job defensively vs. the Los Angeles Lakers on the West Coast Christmas Day, limiting them to 41.8 percent shooting in a 101-95 win. The Laker offense currently consists of Pau Gasol and a bunch of no-names, and while LA is an overtime loss away from a three-game win streak, Miami is a step up in class. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
Ken Thomson
Tulsa -4.5
When you keep checking injuries and see a top scorer from a team out, it's easy to stay away from playing on that squad and many times you look to play against them. Tulsa lost sophomore forward Rashad Smith prior to Conference USA play starting. It was a big blow to Coach Danny Manning's squad. In the four Conference games without Smith....the Golden Hurricane has made big strides. Shaq Harrison, Pat Swilling Jr. and D'Andre Wright have been solid in their increased roles but it back up PG Rashad Ray that has really upped the Ante. Ray averaged just ( 4.2 ppg ) prior to Conference play. In the 4 Conference games, Ray has averaged ( 11.8 ppg ) shooting better than 82% from the field. All that said, Middle Tennessee is still a good team led by veteran Shawn Jones and Neiko Hunter. This however is not near as solid as last years squad. Look for Manning's boy's to take care of business on their home court with an 8 - 15 point victory!
Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Dallas
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won six in a row, and some might think a let down is inevitable. Tonight might not be the best spot to bet against the Leafs though, as they are an underdog in Dallas, taking on a Stars team that can't seem to keep the puck out of it's own net.
Before I make the decision to place a wager, there are numerous factors that I will take into careful consideration. While I won't go into great detail about all my handicapping methods, I will share a few of the key stats and trends for this contest:
1: Previous History - The Stars have lost seven straight to Eastern Conference opponents, and nine of 11 overall in the New Year. Toronto has won all three meetings with Dallas since 2010.
2: Special Teams - The Leafs continue to get it done with the man-advantage, boasting the #4 ranked power-play in the NHL. Toronto is converting on better than 22% of it's odd-manned chances. The Stars on the other hand rank near the bottom of the league, clicking at just 14%.
3: X-Factor - Phil Kessel has scored five goals in his last four games, and has 14 points during the Leafs recent winning streak.
Wunderdog
Texas State at Arkansas Little Rock
Pick: Texas State +5
The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans took the easy road, and have gotten off to a 9-9 start. That record is a bit misleading as they have won twice against Division-3 opponents, so overall this is a below .500 team. While the starting five is reasonable, they have little to no depth, as they bring no one off the bench that shoots better than 42% on the season. Texas State has managed just one win in their last six tries, and they will have revenge in mind here for a 4-point home loss earlier in the season to Little Rock. They led into the second half of that one before going cold late in the game. I think this game is a toss-up, so I'll grab the road team and the points. Play on Texas State.
Ken Thomson
Penn St. -3.5
If the Nittany Lions are going to win a game in the Big Ten this might be an ideal spot. The Cornhuskers come off a huge upset of Ohio State in their last game. Penn State has come up just short in three of their last four games...losing at Purdue by 1 point in their last contest and in the two close home losses to Indiana & Minnesota they led for much of both games. DJ Newbill and Tim Frazier combine for ( 34 points ) and Ross Davis does the blue collar work in the paint ( 10.7 ppg, 7.7 RB ) to lead the way for Coach Chambers club. Tim Miles continues to win wherever he coaches. The boys from Lincoln will face a hungry Lions team and will need a big team effort to avoid this potential road pitfall. This line went up a half point while writing this out!
NHL Predictions
Ottawa Senators +130
The Ottawa Senators have been playing better hockey lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games, with two of their three losses over that span being overtime losses. Ottawa is 22-19-9 on the season and 11-8-4 on the road. The Lightning are 29-16-5 on the season and 14-6-3 at home, but they haven't been playing their best hockey lately. The Lightning have lost 3 of their last 5 games and their latest win was a 5-3 victory over Carolina in a game they were out shot 51-24. Ottawa has won 4 of their last 5 road games and have a solid record vs the Lightning over the years as they are 44-17-2 in their last 62 meetings. Tampa did win their only meeting with Ottawa this year although the Sens out shot them 34-22 in that game. I'll take the team playing better hockey right now at a good underdog price.