WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee at Mississippi
Pick: Tennessee +8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ole Miss Rebels have been a big surprise in the early going. They play host to Tennessee and put their 15-2 overall mark, and their perfect 10-0 home ledger on the line. The Volunteers are a misleading 9-7 on the season. They are 0-4 on the road, and are facing an unbeaten home team. It would certainly be easy to discount their chances here, but a closer look shows otherwise. Tennessee lost on the road to Kentucky by just 10, Alabama by just 3, Memphis by just 5, and Georgetown by just a single point, so they have been highly competitive on the road. They also own wins vs. Wichita State, and Xavier, so this team is clearly under the radar. Take the points and play on Tennessee.
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Virginia at Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Although the early money has come in support of Virginia, not sure I share that same enthusiasm. UVA on the road has not been a bankroll builder thus far as they failed outright as -5 at Wake Forest and were dismantled by 15 at Clemson. Their exceptional prowess on defense is fiercely combatted by their one trick pony offense. Virginia’s pedestrian attack which has little in the way of penetrating rim attackers and inside post presence depends much too heavily on three point shooting. That long range success has not traveled with them in ACC play shooting less than 30% in each of their road games. With no other matchup being problematic, expect Virginia Tech to focus on defending the arc here. Offensively the Hokies will likely find the going tough but they have the best scorer on the floor in senior guard Erick Greene (24.6 ppg). Coleman Coliseum will provide a raucous environment tonight and Tech has either won or stayed within this 5.5 point number in five of the last six meetings. Spot looks right for a play on the underdog.
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Cal State Northridge at UC Santa Barbara
Recommendation: Santa BarbaraFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal State Northridge got off to a 6-0 start this year, all against lined, DI opponents. It didn’t end there. The Matadors hung tough with BYU in Provo and won SU at Utah and put together a furious rally to nearly upset a solid Hawaii team in Honolulu in their conference opener. Then the bottom dropped out.
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Northridge has opened up Big West play by losing each of their first seven games. Their last pointspread cover came in that aforementioned loss at Hawaii, dropping each of their last six games ATS as well; consistently overvalued by the betting markets after that hot start.
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The Matadors have two major weaknesses. First, they are as young as any team in all of DI basketball. Head coach Bobby Braswell: “Our young guys are going through a stretch that has been very difficult. The freshmen are struggling a bit. Their numbers are going down. It's the rigors of a long season. We warned them this would happen.”
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Northridge’s second weakness is their defense, or lack thereof. In conference play, the Matadors are allowing a whopping 60% shooting from the floor from two-point range, unable to protect the rim at all. They aren’t defending the three point line much better, allowing 45% shooting from beyond the arc in their last five ballgames. These are ‘off-the-charts-bad’ defensive numbers, a troubling sign when the head coach is telling us that his team is already really worn down.
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UC Santa Barbara will play without their best player, leading scorer and rebounder Alan Williams tonight – hence the very low pointspread. But the team gutted out a double OT win against Cal Poly after Williams got hurt in their last game; getting step-up performances from Kyle Boswell, Taran Brown, Nate Garth and Mike Bryson. Expect another ‘gut-it-out’ win from the home team tonight against a free-falling foe.
Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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W.Carolina +7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This one's fairly simple. Davidson is quite capable here, but Western took a beating from them last season and then proceeded to take them to double-overtime in the SoCon Finals last year, so they do know they can play with Davidson. Davidson will make their living from behind the arc, but honestly we like to fade these types of teams on the road. Western is one of the better perimeter defending teams in the nation, and they HAVE done it against a pretty good non-conference schedule. Davidson got a little pissy at home after the loss in Statesboro to Georgia Southern, but now back on the road that loss may be a distant memory. Davidson's defense is simply not that solid that they can keep the Catamounts from scoring, so I simply don't expect anything other than a tight game all night. I see that you can now get an even better number, which is always a good thing.
GoodFellaFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You will hear repeatedly about the "revenge" the NYK have for this game tonight.........Both of these teams are struggling of late, as the NYK have dropped 4 of 6 SU and clearly miss the floor leader in PG Ray Felton, who is having an outstanding season (thanks for nothing last year in Portland Raymond.....) Anyways, the facts is that the Knicks have dropped 13 straight games at Boston coming into tonight. We're getting great line value on Boston IMO, due to their "4 game losing streak", and I absolutely expect one of their most focused games of the season tonight. I look for Rondo to go off tonight, as the NYK really do not have anyone to stay with him. Bottom line for me is I am all over the Celts as a HOME DOG tonight, in this spot, and I have them winning the game outright by couple baskets.
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Citadel +16.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Citadel always plays this team strong and already has a cover this year verses them in a game they could have won outright. Just a too large number here and while we will have to see some 3 pointers made by the Bulldogs, they certainly have been doing very well at that with near 42% over their last 5 played. The number I have here is Charleston -11.3 and that is good enough for a biter.
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NY Knicks -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I don't typically root for the New York Knicks. When I make a wager on them it's always strictly business. Well tonight is an exception. There was an NBA player who played college ball in my home town that once remarked on a trip back that Kevin Garnett had the biggest mouth of any player in the league at the time. Well, that was some years back and it does not seem to me that much has changed. I suspect Carmelo Anthony has been eyeballing this game on the calendar ever since the last meeting when Garnett was his usual self but even went over the line for him making the remarks concerning Anthony's wife. There are trends supporting the Knicks tonight and the Celtics have been looking lethargic as hell lately. Frankly guys, nothing much about this game says Boston to me. I expect a spirited effort tonight from New York and hopefully Melo has a chance to put once down in Garnett's face at some point. Free release on the New York Knicks laying the single digit.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah +1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We have a solid base for this play with a west coast team travelling to the altitude of SLC. All that keeps this from being stronger is respect for the road record of 5th year HC Montgomery who in his time with the Cardinals and Bears has posted a mark of 74-52 ATS on the road, including 49-30 ATS as PK or Road fav. They are just 2-4 SU ATS as traveler this year and are failing to produce much from the perimeter making just 3.4/10.9 (3's/game for 31%). They will face a daunting challenge against the ever improving Utah defense allowing just 60 points on 37%. We also have the late game comfort of knowing the Utes convert 75% from the Stripe. But the real jewel of this play are the point spread marks of 2nd year HC Krystkowiak. Under his tutelage the Utes are 29-15 ATS at the Huntsman Center, including 6-3 ATS this season. That record includes 15-4 ATS as home PK or Dog. And if underdog in this contest, note the sturdy 14-3 ATS dog mark of the Western version of Coach K.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
MISSISSIPPI -8 over Tennessee: The Vols have really struggled on the road this year, going 0-4 and scoring just 51 ppg in the process. That kind of offensive output won't get it done here. Ole Miss averages a healthy 83.4 ppg at home and have outscored their opponents by 25.5 ppg in the process. A trip to Mississippi is not what a weak scoring Tennessee team really need as the Rebels allow just 57.9 ppg on 35.3% shooting on their home floor this year. Yes Tennessee allows just 56.5 ppg on the road overall, but 71.5 ppg in their two SEC road games. Ole Miss has already beaten Arkansas and Missouri by DD on their home floor and those two teams are better than Tennessee. I look for another DD win by the Rebels here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Michigan/ Purdue Under 134: Two very good defensive teams take the court tonight and that should keep this one in the 120's. Purdue comes in allowing just 61.2 pg on 38.4% shooting for the year. On the road they have been impressive as well as they have allowed just 62 ppg on 37.4% shooting. Now in their last game vs West Virginia, Purdue did put up 79 points, but that is not their game as they have averaged just 63.6 ppg in their other 5 Big 10 games, plus they have also averaged just 60.8 ppg on 41.3% shooting on the road this year. That is more their style of play. Michigan has been a solid defensive team all year, allowing 59.4 ppg on 40.9% shooting, while at home they have allowed just 57.1 ppg on 40.3% shooting. It will be hard for Purdue to hit the mid 60's in this one. Michigan can score a ton of points but have recently played good defensive teams (Ohio State, Nebraska) and struggled in those two games. Purdue will try and slow the pace, which should keep Michigan's points down as well. Purdue is bad from long range and horrible from the charity stripe, while both teams defend the 3-pt line very well. I expect around 128 points scored here.
Arkansas LR/ Florida Atlantic Over 130.5: Both teams play at a medium pace, but we should still get at least 135 in this one. Actually Ark Little rock likes a bit of a faster paced game at home as they average 73.7 ppg on 47.4% shooting on their home floor this year. They do allow just 61.7 ppg at home, but have allowed 65 points or more in 4 of their last 5 home games, with those games averaging 142.2 ppg. FAU's road games have average 132 ppg and they do score just 61 ppg away from home, but hey are up vs a struggling defensive squad tonight that has allowed 66.4 pp in their last 5 games overall. I expect the mid 60's by the Owls here, while this good Little Rock offense should hit at least the same mark vs an Owls team that allows 71 ppg on the road. 72-65 sounds about right for this on.
North Dakota +5.5 over SACRAMENTO STATE: Prior to the start of the season ND was picked by many ahead of Sacramento State in the Big Sky conference, as they are the better team and i still feel they are the better team here. Thus is a good situational spot for the Fighting Sioux as they are on a 3 game winning streak, which has given them plenty of confidence, plus they will be facing a Hornets squad that is off a 4 game road trip and didn't play all hat well on that trip, losing 3 of 4. Overall the Hornets have won just 3 of their last 10 games and are really starting to play like a team that was picked for the bottom half of the Big Sky. They are 5-2 at home but have outscored their opponents by just 3.2 ppg on their home floor. The Fighting Sioux are beginning to turn things around, while the Hornets are headed the other way. Ill take the points with the hotter dog here.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors +4
The Orlando Magic have no business being favored against anyone with the way they are playing right now. I'll gladly take the points with the Toronto Raptors, who are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league.
Toronto just took defending champion Miami to overtime on the road last night. While this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Raptors, it won't be much of a factor considering it's a short trip to Orlando. Plus, the Raptors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.
The Magic have lost 14 of their last 16 games overall. That includes a 100-106 home loss to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats on January 18th and a 90-105 road loss at Detroit on January 22nd just two nights ago. After a decent start to the season, this team is finally coming back down to reality considering the lack of talent they have on their roster.
Toronto has really owned Orlando in recent meetings. It has won three straight over the Magic, including a 123-88 beat down on the road in their most recent meeting on December 29th.
The Raptors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 Thursday games. The Magic are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet the Raptors Thursday.
John Martin
Phoenix Suns +6.5
Chris Paul is doubtful tonight for Los Angeles, and it is starting to show that it cannot play nearly as well without him at full strength. The Clippers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games, losing the last two outright to both the Warriors and Thunder. Off that big loss to OKC last time out, I look for the Clippers to suffer an emotional hangover. They are way overvalued as a 6.5-point road favorite tonight against a well-rested Phoenix team that will be playing just its 2nd game in 7 days. LA could also be disinterested tonight after winning the first two meetings with the Suns in blowout fashion, which is another reason for this line inflation. The Clippers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Steve Janus
Virginia Tech +6
Virginia Tech has had some ugly losses in the ACC, but they are coming off back-to-back wins and you can throw out the records when you have a big in-state rivalry matchup like this. The Hokies are 8-2 at home this season, while the Cavaliers are just 1-5 on the road. I'll gladly take the points here, as I like Virginia Tech's chances of winning this game outright.
John Ryan
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech
The simulator shows a high probability that Tech will lose this game by four or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. I like splitting this play into a combination bet using an 8* amount on the line and a 2* amount using the money line. You may remember the last free member pick I posted on Wake Forest as they upset NC State. This would not be as big an upset, but would certainly be a resume building one come Tournament time for Tech. UVA is coming off back-to-back wins after losing four straight games. They held Georgia Tech to 36.1% shooting in their 70-65 win and then held Wake Forest to 36.8% shooting in their 66-65 escape. Tech has a very powerful offense ranking 3oth in the nation averaging 75.5 PPG. Although UVA has the second best scoring defense in the nation at 50.2 PPG, they are a bit padded by the schedule. In other words, they are not in the same league as Florida’s defense and I strongly believe they will have big trouble against Tech’s offensive play. Tech can play and inside-out offense and focus on drawing fouls by penetration and driving shot attempts at the rim. They rank eighth in the nation making 17.5 free throws per game and 14th attempting an average of 24.4 free throws per game. Take Virginia Tech.
Brandon Lee
NY Knicks -1
New York is favored in this game for a reason. Boston is not playing well and the Celtics pissed off the Knicks in their last meeting. Not only did Boston knock off New York at Madison Square Garden, Kevin Garnett made some unfavorable remarks towards Carmelo Anthony's wife. Look for the Knicks players to rally around their superstar and do whatever it takes to get a win tonight. Lay the Point!
Jeff Alexander
Michigan -14.5
Michigan will have no trouble getting up for this one as it was embarrassed by Purdue by 14 points on its home floor last season. Purdue is hanging its hat on its defense as it is holding its opponents to just 38.4% shooting. However, the Wolverines have been unfazed at home versus good defensive teams. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse over the last 2 seasons. They have won these games by an average of 20.8 points. Michigan is 11-0 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 25.7 points.