Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, January 26

Rob Vinciletti

Valparaiso vs. Wisc Green Bay
Play: Valparaiso +1.5

Valpo has won 7 of 9 vs conference opponents and 5 of the last 6 after allowing 60 or less last out. When they play teams that average 65 or less points they are 4-1. Valpo has knocked off 0 of he last 25 teams with losing records as well. That brings us to a Wisconsin Green Bay that has lost 9 of the last 11 vs teams with a winning record and 6 of 7 if they scored 60 or less points in their last game, WGBAY is 1-4 off a loss and 0-6 vs teams ranked 100 to 150 in the RPI Rankings, while Valparaiso has won both games vs teams ranked 150 to 200. Look for Valparaiso to cash this one.

Ben Burns

North Carolina State @ North Carolina
PICK: North Carolina State +13.5

The Tar Heels are off an impressive 82-68 victory at Florida State. Obviously, they are a very good team. They're not invincible though. Prior to the win at Virginia Tech, UNC was smashed by a score of 90-57 at Florida State. Overall, the Tar Heels are just 2-3 ATS their last five games.

While UNC should win this game, this is quite a large number to be laying.

Keep in mind that the Wolfpack are no slouches. They won outright at Miami last time out. Prior to that, they crushed Boston College. Before that, they beat Wake Forest by 36 points. In fact, they're 9-1 SU their last 10 games and the lone loss came by just 11 points.

Going back further finds that NC State has just five SU losses on the entire season and that only one of those setbacks came by greater than 11 points. (That was vs. Syracuse.) For the season, the Wolfpack are 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) in their road lined games. Their lone loss on the road came by only four points, at Stanford.

The Tar Heels are only 8-13 ATS the last 21 times that they were laying more than a dozen points at home and that includes a 1-3 ATS mark as a home favorite in the -12.5 to -15 range. Consider taking the points with NC STATE.

Marc Lawrence

South Alabama @ Arkansas-Little Rock
PICK: South Alabama

What’s going on with the Sun Belt this season? Heading into tonight only FOUR of its 12 member teams boasts an overall winning record – and the remaining eight programs had combined for a jaw-dropping 32-72 SU effort against non-conference foes. One of those losing teams was Arkansas-LR, which amazingly led the Sun Belt West with a 5-0 mark despite its 8-11 start. But here’s the real kicker: prior to its meeting with La-Lafayette last a week ago, UALR was riding an amazing 10-0 ATS win skein. That sort of anomaly just screams ‘value’ when looking at South Alabama tonight… especially since the Jags have gone 13-5 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in this series. The visitors were also 9-0 SU versus losing teams at press time and will be looking to get even for a loss to Little Rock in last year’s conference tournament (Jaguars 4-0-1 ATS as dogs with Sun Belt tourney knockout revenge). Cats must be on the prowl here if they expect to have any chance at chasing down East-leading Middle Tennessee State. We’ll do our part to bolster an ailing economy by making a play on the ‘USA.’ We recommend a 1-unit play on South Alabama.

Jim Feist

CS Fullerton VS CS Northridge
Pick: CS Fullerton

Fullerton has a better road record than stumbling Northride has at home. The Cal State Fullerton Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. This bad Northridge team has home court, but what has that mattered? The Matadors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these conference rivals. Play Fullerton!

Dave Cokin

Pepperdine vs San Diego
Pick: San Diego

Pepperdine's lack of depth is wearing down what was already a weak team. This game is essentially six vs. nine and even though the Toreros are no very good, they're in better form, they're much deeper and they're at home. San Diego should win here pretty comfortably.

Bryan Power

Indiana @ Wisconsin
PICK: Wisconsin -7

Thanks to a strong start, Indiana has officially become overrated in the marketplace. For all their "success" the Hoosiers are just 4-4 SU in Big 10 play & that includes 1-3 on the road. The Kohl Center in Madison is of course one of the most difficult venues in the conference, if not the entire nation and I look for host Wisconsin to pick up a big victory Thursday night. The Badgers are 25-12 ATS their last 37 home games and come in having won four straight overall. The Badgers have beaten IU six straight times by nine or more points and they hold serve tonight.

David Banks

Indiana Hoosiers

A big one is set to go on the Big Ten hardwood Thursday night in Madison where the Wisconsin Badgers (16-5, 12-6 ATS) will look to continue their dominance over the Indiana Hoosiers (16-4, 9-6 ATS); tip-off from the Kohl Center is set to go live on ESPN2 at 9:00 ET.

After dropping their Big Ten opener in East Lansing against the Michigan State Spartans, Head Coach Tom Creans Hoosiers rattled off three straight wins over Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State to sit atop the herd. Then came a surprising three-game losing streak to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Nebraska that chopped the Hoosiers back down to size. Most teams experience this up and down nature throughout a lengthy conference schedule, and the hope in Bloomington is that their squad got all its losing out of its system as they close out the second half of the schedule. That certainly looked to be the case last Saturday when Indiana last took to the hardwood, as it simply blew the doors off Penn State en route to the 73-54 home win and cover as 15-point favorites. Frosh Cody Zeller and his mates check in 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their seven road/neutral court games to date.

Just like tonights opponent, the Wisconsin Badgers also exploded out of the gate to the tune of a 12-2 SU mark through the course of their first 14 games played, but then came upon some hard times that balanced out their overall statistics. After going into Nebraska and handing the Huskers a 64-40 woodshed beating as 8.5-point road chalk in their Big Ten opener back in late December, the Badgers went on to drop three in a row to Iowa, Michigan State, and Michigan. The first two defeats saw them drop back-to-back home tussles for the first time during the Bo Ryan era. Instead of feeling sorry for themselves, the Badgers snapped the losing streak with a solid win at Mackey Arena a venue they'd only been victorious in three times in their previous 40 visits and at the same time, snapped the Boilermakers 26-game home win streak. That triumph was followed up with two more against Northwestern and Illinois. As it is, Wiscy enters tonights spot winners of four in a row (3-1 ATS) with 10-3 SU & 6-4 ATS records as a host.

Wisconsin has dominated its recent series with Indiana winning each of the teams L/8 overall confrontations while covering the closing number in seven of those contests; the over is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings. The Hoosiers check in a bankroll depleting 3-14 ATS versus their L/17 Big Ten opponents, but stand 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times they were dogged by eight points or less. Wisconsin's 19-9 ATS the L/28 times it matched up against a +.600 opponent, but checks in just 2-3 SU & ATS as a favorite of eight points or less.

MATT RIVERS

NBA comp play for this Thursday night card is the streaking Memphis Grizzlies plus the points at the Los Angeles Clippers.

Memphis did lose on Tuesday night in Portland, but the Grizzlies have won seven of their last eight games overall, and they have covered in five of their last six contests.

The Clippers just played last night, taking on their in-city rival the Lakers for bragging rights to the City of Angels. The Clips came up shy in a 96-91 final as the "visitor" in their home arena. How will Los Angeles react tonight playing with no rest against this dangerous visitor?

The Grizzlies have won five of the last nine series meetings straight up, and they have covered in six of those nine showdowns.

I will grab the points with the rested road dog to cover versus a L.A. team that is still licking their wounds after losing a big one to the Lakers last night.

2♦ MEMPHIS

Andrew Lange

Washington at Arizona State
Play: Under 137.5

In seven PAC-12 games this season, Arizona State has topped 137 points once. It came against the fastest team in the league, Oregon State, who also happens to be incapable of stopping teams from scoring (57.4% effective FG% vs. PAC-12). In that game, there were 71 possessions and ASU shot 59% from the floor and 53% from three. If not for ASU's out-of-the-norm effort and a 45-point second half, that game probably lands in the low to mid 130s as oppose to 142. Outside of that game, ASU's games vs. the PAC-12 have averaged 58.6 possessions per game. Since losing to Colorado 87-69, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar has been preaching better shot selection and defense and for the most part, it has worked as the Huskies have won three of their last four conference games, holding those four teams to 53, 65, 69 and 63 points. Injuries concerns for both squads with UW's CJ Wilcox and ASU's Trent Lockett questionable – I've read different status reports on both players. Regardless, Arizona State has been horrific on offense for much of the season and is rarely if ever willing to get out in transition and attempt to trade baskets with the opposition. Couple that with Washington's constant struggles on the road and we find ourselves with a play on the under.

SPORTS WAGERS

MISSISSIPPI +5 over Florida

The Gators are a decent team with a chance to make a deep run in this year's dance. They come into this one with a 3-1 conference mark and a 15-4 overall record. Of Florida's four losses, two were against Syracuse and Ohio State, arguably two of the top four teams in the nation. What's somewhat disturbing is that the Gators have played just five true road games this season and have managed just one win. They had lost four in a row away from home prior to beating a rather lame South Carolina club in its last road tilt. The Gators also have road losses to Tennessee and Rutgers and they're not taking a step down in class against Ole Miss. It's also worth noting that the Gators will host #16 Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels are coming on. They're now 3-2 in the conference and 13-6 overall. They've won two in a row and three of four. That includes an impressive won over in-state rival #16 Mississippi State. In a letdown spot after that big win, Ole Miss won on the road at Georgia. The Rebels offense is a work in progress but they've been better recently and they're an outstanding rebounding team. This is a key game in its quest to make the tournament this season and they figure to be ready. More than that however, is Florida's poor road efforts and until they prove they can win away games, we'll gladly back an ascending host like this one. Play: #546 Mississippi +6 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

We're also playing the following games:

Fresno St +123 over LOUISIANA TECH
Play: Fresno State +123 (Risking 2 units)

Boston College +17½ over VIRGINIA
Play: Boston College +17½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit UCLA Bruins -21½

Utah has been a poor investment away from home, where it is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS with an average losing margin of 24.7 points. It has a 30-point loss at Fresno State, a 29-point loss at Weber State, a 40-point loss at Colorado and a 36-point loss at Cal. UCLA won't be showing any mercy this evening as it finally returns home following 3 straight on the road and back-to-back losses. A number of trends support the Bruins, who are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Also, teams coached by Ben Howland are 7-0 ATS since 1997 when playing at home 15 or more games into the season versus a poor team that is being outscored by 4 or more points per game. His teams have won by an average of 27.1 points in this situation. Take UCLA.

Matt Fargo

Nevada vs. New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico State -3½

We've successfully backed New Mexico St. a few times this season as this team has been playing very well for the majority of the tear. The Aggies are coming off a loss at Hawaii in their most recent game, which was their first conference loss of the season after a 4-0 start. They now trail Nevada by a game in the WAC and we should see a big bounce back effort on their home floor here. New Mexico St. had won six straight games prior to the disappointing loss against the Warriors.

Nevada meanwhile is red hot as it has won 13 consecutive games and the preseason pick to win the WAC is so far holding true to form. Maybe even more impressive is the fact that the Wolf Pack have only dropped one game against the number over this stretch in the 11 lined games. This is a very tough team no doubt but because of the winning streak, we are getting value going the other way and this is easily their toughest road game since facing UNLV way back in November.

Things are back in place for another run at the WAC title as four starters are back for the Aggies following a disappointing 16-17 record last year that was mostly due to injuries. New Mexico St. is loaded down low as Wendell McKines and Hamidu Rahman are averaging 17 rebounds combined and as a team, the Aggies are +7.4 in rebounding margin, which is 10th in the nation. Nevada normally has an edge in this category but that won't be the case on Thursday.

New Mexico St. is ranked first in the nation in free-throw attempts per game with 33.5, five more than any other team and that aggressiveness will be big once again tonight. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record while also going 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after playing a game on the road. The favorite have covered five of the last six meetings and Nevada will be out for revenge here, it won't happen tonight.

Sean Murphy

St. Peter's @ Rider
PICK: Rider -5½

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We've made a lot of money backing the Rider Broncs over the past month, and after a brief hiatus, we'll go right back to the well with them when they host St. Peter's on Thursday night.

Rider has gone 5-1-1 ATS since the start of January, but the betting marketplace still isn't quite sure how to handle this team, as it has dropped three of its last four games SU.

There's no need to get too down on the Broncs, as that recent three-game losing streak came against some of the MAAC's best teams, Siena, Fairfield, and Iona. They returned to form last time out, crushing Canisius by 24 points right here at home.

It's quickly becoming a lost season for St. Peter's. After years of being a front-runner in the MAAC, the Peacocks have fallen off due to roster turnover, likely a year or two away from climbing back to relevance.

However, St. Peter's has managed to post two ATS wins in its last three games, providing a bit of an illusion to the betting marketplace that's giving us additional value tonight.

The Peacocks haven't fared well when stepping up in class in-conference this season. Since the start of January, they've lost by 14 at home against this same Rider squad, 12 at Niagara, 12 at Fairfield, and 11 at Loyola-Maryland. They've only managed to stay competitive in games against lowly Canisius and Marist.

At 4-5 in MAAC play, Rider still has plenty of work to do, and certainly won't overlook St. Peter's tonight. The Broncs have taken care of business against the conference's weaker teams here at home, defeating Marist by 13 and Canisius by 24, and I'm confident they'll add to the Peacocks woes on Thursday.

WUNDERDOG

Memphis at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Memphis +3.5

There is something about the team chemistry of this Memphis Grizzlies team. Last year they lost Rudy Gay, their highest scorer at the time. They started to come together, and overcame the loss to make a deep playoffs run. This year they have lost another star player in Zach Randolph, and have gone 7-1 over their last eight. They have dominated winning teams to a 36-16-1 ATS mark in their last 53. The Clippers have Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups in the backcourt with Blake Griffin on the baseline, were supposed to be the second coming of the Miami Heat. Those expectations have led to a losing ATS record and overall just two wins in their last five games and they have long been dominated by the NBA Southwest at 13-38 ATS in their last 51. That includes four Grizzlies wins in their last five here. Play on Memphis.