Nelly
North Carolina – over NC State
Look for North Carolina to get on a nice run the next several weeks. After the 90-57 embarrassment at Florida State this team emerged with a new defensive focus, shutting down Virginia Tech on the road 82-68 and now back at home the Tar Heels should deliver a convincing victory. North Carolina has won by an average of 26 points per game at home this season and that includes wins over two ACC foes and over Texas in recent weeks, all by at least 17 points. NC State will be up for this big rivalry game but they are facing a third road game in the last four contests and a second straight on the road after a huge win in Miami on Sunday. The Wolfpack are 4-1 in ACC play but they have played arguably the five weakest teams in the league. NC State has faced one of the weakest overall schedules of any ACC team and the Wolfpack has gone 0-2 against top 25 teams and 1-4 against top 50 teams. North Carolina won by 20 in the last meeting in Chapel Hill and this spread has been kept in check given some inconsistency for the Tar Heels.
Dave Price
1 Unit Grizzlies/Clippers Under 193
Memphis has not scored the ball as effectively on the road where it is averaging just 85.4 ppg. It is 8-1 under on the road this season as a result. The Clippers just played last night and this will be the 7th game in 10 days for the Grizzlies. This is significant because Memphis is 13-1 Under in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. We've seen an average of only 188.7 total points scored in these 14 contests. With both teams fatigued, I expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. Bet the Under.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -9½
The Orlando Magic want serious payback tonight. I believe they go out and get it against the banged-up Boston Celtics. Orlando suffered their worst loss of the season just a few nights ago on January 23rd, falling 56-87 at Boston. You can bet the Magic will be hungry for revenge at home tonight.
Aside from that blip, the Magic have been one of the most impressive teams in the league this season. Orlando is off to a 12-5 start while covering the spread in 10 of their 17 games. They are 6-2 at home this season, giving up a mere 88.1 points/game on 41.9 percent shooting.
Boston has looked horrible aside from their win over the Magic. The Celtics are just 7-9 on the season with just one win against a team with a winning record. They are scoring just 89.4 points/game this season as their offense just cannot seem to get on track.
The Celtics will certainly struggle offensively tonight without two of their best players. Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen are each expected to sit out tonigt. Plus, Jermaine O'Neal is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Boston stands little chance of keeping this game close without these three players on the floor.
Boston is 8-28 ATS in their last 36 after a win by 10 points or more. Worse yet, the Celtics are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Boston is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Magic Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Wisconsin-Milwaukee -3½
Butler has been overvalued all season and is just 4-12 ATS in lined games as a result. The Panthers lost the first meeting by 4 points on the road, but I like their chances at home, where they are 9-1 this season. Plus, the Panthers are 10-2 ATS in home games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. They're winning these games by an average of 6.0 points. The Bulldogs are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 in this series. Take the Panthers.
Steve Janus
Colorado +1
Colorado is showing some great value as an extremely small underdog at USC on Thursday. The Buffaloes have been impressive in their first season in the PAC 12, supporting a 5-2 conference record. Both losses have came on the road, but both were to very good teams in California and Stanford. I look for the Buffaloes to be extremely motivated to get their first conference road win, especially against a poor USC team that is just 5-15 overall and 0-7 in conference play.
USC hasn't won a game since beating TCU back in the middle of December. The Trojans have one of the worst offenses in the country, averaging just 54.2 ppg. They have lost each of their three conference home games by at least 9-points, and you have to wonder if this team hasn't already thrown in the towel.
Colorado head coach Tad Boyle knows how to motivate his team when they come into a game listed as an underdog. His teams are 41-24 ATS (as an underdog in all games he has coached. The Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Black Widow
1* Eastern Kentucky +1
This one is about as easy as it gets folks. Eastern Kentucky should not be an underdog tonight with how well they've played at home this season. How good have they been? Eastern Kentucky is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 13.4 points/game. They will be up against 12-8 Tennessee Tech, which sports a 5-5 record on the road this season. It's the same team that lost to SIU Edwardsville 68-83 on the road earlier this season as an 11-point favorite. The EKU Colonels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Take Eastern Kentucky and the points.
Hollywood Sports
Colorado at USC
Prediction: USC
With most teams entering the fourth week of conference play, there is enough of a sample size to begin using the Points-Per-Possession in conference play metric to identify hidden value relative to a team's conference won/loss record. But it remains critical to take this metric with a grain of salt relative to their strength of schedule. Colorado (13-6) is the poster boy for this caution. Contrary to the ESPN show, Numbers Do Sometimes Lie. On paper, the Buffaloes are 2nd in the Pac-12 with their net PPP efficiency margin of +0.12 (Offensive PPP: 1.05; Defensive PPP: 0.92). But Colorado has compiled these numbers based on five home games (all wins) against Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, Washington State and Utah and then two road games (all losses) against Stanford and California. The more telling number is this: the Buffaloes have only a +0.01 net PPP when facing a team higher than 9th place in the Pac-12. Now with the Buffaloes traveling on the road, this is a dangerous spot for Colorado. The Buffaloes are an impressive 11-1 at home this season -- but they are just 1-3 on the road with an average losing margin of 6.3 PPG. USC (5-15) may be on an eight-game losing streak but they do limit their opponents to just 58.3 PPG on 40.3% shooting on their home court. Considering that Colorado shoots only 40.3% from the field on the road, they may get stung by the Trojans in this one against a USC team desperate to get their first win in conference play. Take USC in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Orlando Over 174: A few nights a go these teams played in Boston where their home games have averaged 171 ppg and the OU line was at 177. Now we switch venues to Florida where Orlando home games have averaged 182.7 ppg yet the OU line is lower here. I don't think so. The C's have played great defense this year, but on the road they have allowed 99.2 ppg and Orlando has scored 94.1 ppg at home. Orlando also had problems in Boston with the slow down pace the C's played, but I expect them to get out and run a bit more which should up the scoring in this one. Orlando does allow just 88.1, while the C's have averaged 94.3 ppg on the road. Even without Rodo or Alle, Boston will find away to get enough points on the board for this game to go Over.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
SAN DIEGO -4 over Pepperdine: San Diego has not had a great year as they are 7-12 overall and 2-5 in the WCC, but they have not played all that bad of late. In their last 10 games they have a 4 point home loss to UCSB and a 6 point home loss to St Mary's as an 18 point dog, while they have also picked up road wins vs Santa Clara and Portland (both by DD). This is a team that is more than capable of routing a Pepperdine squad that is just 1-7 in the WCC. Pepperdine has really struggled of late as they have lost their last 7 games and have scored just 52.1 ppg over that stretch, while being outscored by 17 ppg in those games. The Wave has struggled at the defensive end this year as well, as they have allowed 69.2 ppg during their losing streak. San Diego has struggled on defense, allowing 72.8 ppg overall and 71.9 ppg at home, but they have a big edge on offense, putting up 66.1 ppg overall and 69.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Neither team has played good defense of late, but Pepperdine just can score and they will have to in this one to keep it close. Neither team is headed for postseason play, but the Toreos will look to take some frustrations out on a very bad Pepperdine team tonight. San Diego could win this one by DD.
4 UNIT PLAY
South Alabama/ Ark- Little Rock Over 122: UALR has had some low scoring conference games (117.3 ppg), but if you take out the 78 total points scored between UALR and FAU then their other 6 conference games have averaged 123.8 pgg. The Trojans have had problems scoring this year at 61.4 ppg and 58,5 ppg at home, but fear not as South Alabama has allowed 70.8 ppg on the road and 67.3 ppg in conference play. UALR has been solid at the defensive end of late as they have allowed just 58.6 ppg in their last 5 overall and 58.4 ppg in conference play, but they have allowed 62.3 ppg at home and will be facing an improving South Alabama offense. The Jaguars come in averaging just 61.3 ppg in league play overall, but in their last 4 games they have put up 63. 5 ppg and have hit 70+ points in 2 of those games. The Jags have been involved in some low scoring games this year, but not as low as the Trojans, as their conference games have averaged 128.6 ppg and their road games have averaged 131 ppg, while 7 of their last 10 overall have hit at least 127 points. The Key here will be if the Trojans can hit 61+ points and I feel they can vs a team that has struggled defensively in the conference and on the road, while on the other side i expect the improving South Alabama offense to hit at least 61 points themselves, as they should look to push the pace to get some easy scores vs a tough UALR defensive team. I expect both teams to hit at least 61 points as this game should flirt with hitting the 130 point mark.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Montana PK over EASTERN WASHINGTON: I hope i'm not missing something here. Montana is 6-1 in the the Big Sky, while EW is just 3-4 in conference play. Montana has won 8 of their last 9 overall and they are 2-1 in Big Sky Road games, plus they did beat EW at home by 8 back in Dec. EW comes in having won just 2 of their last 7 games and over tat stretch they have a loss to a non-lined Seattle and a home loss to Portland State as 8 points faves. Yet this game is a pick. Am I missing something here. Granted the last 6 in the series has been won by the home team, but i still feel the Montana should be favored by a few. Ok Let's dig a little further shall we. EW does come in ranked 88th in scoring (72.6 ppg), but they are a bad shooting team hitting just 41.2% of their shots, which is 248th in the nation. On defense is where this team has really struggled, as they have allowed 70.8 ppg (266th) on 44.9% shooting (266th), including 36.7% from long range (285th), while in their last 5 games they have allowed 71.8 ppg on 48.9% shooting. Not very good numbers considering the fact that montana has put up 75 ppg on 52% shooting in their Big Sky Games this year. Overall Montana has scored just 68.8 ppg on the year(164th), but they shoot much better than EW, hitting 45.5% of their shots, which ranks 97th in the country. Defense is where the Grizzlies have a big edge as they come in allowing 62.7 ppg (73rd) on 41.3 % shooting (101st), while in their last 5 games they have allowed just 58.2 ppg on 40.2% shooting. Really don't see many overall edges for the Eagles to think this should be a PK. I feel that Montana is the better team here and should break that string of 6 straight wins by the home team here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against home teams as an underdog or pick off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more. This play is 46-12 over the last 5 seasons, including 10-2 this year.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Oakland/ South Dakota State Under 171: Had to get away for the low OU lined games i had been playing in the CAA of late. Very frustrating those games have been. LOL These are two of the higher scoring teams in the nation and the Summit league for that matter as SDS comes in averaging 79.9 ppg overall and 82.9 ppg in Summit league, while Oakland comes in averaging 78.7 ppg overall and 80.8 ppg in league play. On the other side we find only really bad defense and one mediocre defense. Oakland comes in allowing 79.6 ppg overall and 81.1 ppg in conference play, while the Jackrabbits have allowed 70.5 ppg overall and 72 ppg in league play. Thanks to the offenses and the pace these teams play at they will be involved in many high scoring games, but let's take note that SDS's last 5 have averaged just 155.8 ppg, while Oakland's last 5 have averaged just 160.4 ppg. Both numbers are at least 10 points off this total. Oakland home games are a bit closer to this total, putting up 165.9 ppg, but SDS road game are not that close as they have averaged just 152.2 ppg. Let's even go a bit further, as we see that Oakland's league games have averaged 161.9 ppg, while SDS's have put up 154.9 ppg. Value is clearly on the Under as I look for a game that will finish in the low 160's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 160 in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (>=20/game). This play is 72-26 the last 5 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 this year.
North Carolina/ NC State Under 157.5: Sorry I had a writeup for this one. I have no clue where it went. Well I do like this play anyway. Just Don't see Carolina scoring more than 80, while State should be held to 65 or less.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Nebraska +6 over IOWA: 9 days off could mean a bit of rust for Iowa. The Huskers have been playing much better of late as they have a win over Indiana and two 5 points road losses to Wisconsin and Illinois in their last 5 games. Let's also note that IOWA is 2-10 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons and 1-10 ATS after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1997. Huskers should keep this one close.
Indiana +8 Over WISCONSIN: Google Play. Indiana has struggled on the road this year and Wisconsin has righted their ship some of late, but I'm still not sold enough on their offense to think that they will be able to score enough to get a comfortable win here. Let's look at a couple of comparisons for a moment. Indiana has put up 69 points on Nebraska, while Wisconsin has averaged 57 ppg in their 2 games vs the Huskers. Indiana did put up 68.5 ppg in their two games vs OSU and they scored 73 points vs Michigan State, while the Badgers needed OT just to hit 60 points vs Sparty. That shows that Indiana can score on tough defenses and if you look at the two blowout road losses they had vs OSU and MSU, you will notice that it was vs two teams that can score. Wisconsin can't and will have a lot of problems putting enough points on the board to get an easy win here. I look for no more than a 4 point Wisconsin win in this one.
CS Fullerton/ CS Northridge Under 153: CS-FULLERTON is 20-8 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more since 1997. Northridge has put up 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Fullerton can score on this week defense, but I just don't see Northridge putting enough points on the board for this game to hit 150+ points.
1 UNIT PLAY
Colorado +1.5 over USC: USC is 14-29 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and 3-13 ATS in home games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997.
Free NCAAB Play for 1/26: Cal State Fullerton Titans -6 over CSU Northridge Matadors. The Titans are showing excellent value here laying less than double digits. The Matadors have won this series decisively in the last meetings. But this time around the Titans will be catching a Matador team shooting only 34.6% from the floor, and losing by an average margin of -14.2. CS Fullerton has been rolling offensively averaging 74.8 pts/game on 46.9% from the floor. They are actually winning by slightly larger margin on the road (+4.6 compared to +4.2), than they are at home. That's good news in this series where the road team has covered in 8 of the last 11 meetings. The Titans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of this margin, -7 to -10.5. The Matadors are just 1-4 ATS in their L5 at home. We'll side with CS Fullerton -6. Our Free Picks are now 151-80-1, 7-0 RUN. Sign up today at iseewinners to receive all of our free releases via email. Thank you, and good luck.