Craig Trapp
Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Boston Celtics -4.5
Celtics are finally getting healthy and that means watch out NBA as they have been winning shorthanded. On the other side POR continues to lose players and now Aldridge and Matthews are banged up. Looks like they will both play but against a physical Celts team don't expect them to be affective. Not often do we play against POR at home but with big guys healthy Celts will dominate paint and win by double digits.
Rob Vinciletti
Marist vs. Saint Peters
Play: Saint Peters -13
St. Peters is a much better team here than Marist and should coast at home here with a win and cover. They have won and covered 5 of 6 as a favorite this season and are 17-6 ats overall vs losing teams. They are a solid 6-0 with 5 covers vs teams who score 65 or less points per game. Marist 0-9 as a road dog in this range and are 0-2 straight up and ats as a road dog in this range this season. St. Peters has superior numbers. Take St. Peters tonight.
LT Profits
CS Northridge +6½
The CS Northridge Matadors may be 0-7 straight up on the road in NCAA Basketball betting this season, but the UC Irvine Anteaters have not done a very good job of protecting their home court at just 5-4 straight up and the talent level between these teams is very close, so at the very least look for Northridge to take this game right down to the wire if not post their first outright road win of the year.
Now we get that UC Irvine has won three straight games and that they are now 10-7-1 against the NCAA Basketball odds this year, but that has appeared to make them overvalued here. After all, the Anteaters are ranked just 167th overall on the Pomeroy Ratings and they do not really grade out that well on either side of the ball, ranking 179th in offensive efficiency and 175th in defensive efficiency. That does not make this a team we feel comfortable laying points with.
Now we get that CS Fullerton grades out just as poorly in the efficiency numbers, but the difference in this NCAA Basketball matchup could be a surprisingly good Matadors interior offense against a bad Anteaters interior defense. Northridge is coming off of a nice 15-point win over the Cal Poly SLO Mustangs where the Mats shot a blistering 57.9 percent from the floor, including hitting on 16 our of 26 two-point attempts for a sensational 61.5 percent.
Believe it or not, Northridge ranks a respectable 92nd in the country in two-point offense this season at 49.8 percent, and the only reason they rank 209th in offensive efficiency is because they rank 263rd in three-point shooting at 31.7 percent. That’s not much of a concern as the Matadors should be able to get inside here and take advantage of an Irvine two-point defense that ranks only 205th while allowing a 49.3 percent success rate on the NCAA Basketball betting odds.
UC Irvine has won and covered the last three head-to-head meetings, but we look for CS Northridge to end that streak by covering this number and possibly winning this game on the court.
Ben Burns
Rider @ Iona
Pick: Under 150
I successfully played against the Gaels in their last game. Laying -5.5 points, they lost "outright" by a score of 75-73. At the time, I noted that they might get caught "looking ahead" to their next game - which is now finally here.
One of the reasons that I thought the Gaels could get caught looking ahead to today's game is because they already played a "classic" against Rider, less than two weeks ago. That 1/14 game ended with a score of 100-96, in favor of Iona.
Off such a massive (196 combined points!) final score in the last meeting, we're now getting a higher O/U line to work, for today's "rematch." I believe that it will prove to be too high. For starters, even though the last meeting was already extremely high-scoring, note that 20 of those points came in Overtime.
Note that Rider road games are averaging 142.2 points. Iona home games are averaging 148.7 points. (Both those are big numbers - but neither is as big as tonight's O/U line.)
Also, while these teams have played some high-scoring games against each other at Rider, games at Iona have typically been low-scoring. In fact, the "under" is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that these teams faced each other here. Those games had final combined scores of 131, 122, 136, 126 and 139 points.
It should also be noted that the Gaels have seen the "under" go 14-4 the past 18 times that they faced a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games of the season had been played. With an O/U line more than 15 points higher than it was when these teams played here last season, I feel those numbers have a strong shot at improving. Consider the Under.
Larry Ness
UCLA @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona -7.5
Arizona may not be ready to compete with Washington for supremacy in the Pac-10 Conference after its 85-65 loss in Tuscon last week but the Wildcats proved that they are a good basketball team and one to be reckoned with after rebounding very nicely by gutting out a tough 65-63 win at Washington State, against a solid Cougars team. Now Arizona returns home 5-2 in conference play while 16-4 overall. On that home court, the Wildcats are undefeated in 11 games with an average winning margin of plus-19.8 PPG. Against Washington State, Arizona converted 11 of its 18 three-point shots which is becoming par for the course for this team, as it ranks 22nd in the nation by converting 39.7% of its shots from three-point land. The Wildcats nail 40.9% of their three-point shots as well as make 49.1% of their shots overall at home, producing 78.6 PPG. They are also playing strong defense on their home court, holding opponents to only 58.5 PPG on just 41.5% shooting. Arizona is also specializing in its three-point defense, ranking 2nd in the nation by limiting opponents to 27.1% shooting from behind the arc. Now the Wildcats have an opportunity to distance themselves from a UCLA team that is tied with them for second place in the Pac-10 with its 5-2 conference record. The Bruins have won four games in a row (13-6 overall) after beating both Cal and Stanford last weekend in Pauley. However, Ben Howland's club remains inconsistent this season (after its subpar 14-18 record last season), as UCLA is just 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 following a game where it covered the pointspread. UCLA is now playing just its fifth true road game of the season, going 2-2 so far this year. There a few reasons to be wary about the ability of the Bruins to be effective on the road against quality competition. They are turning the ball over in 21.7% of their possessions which is 230th in the nation. They also are hitting only 66.1% of their free throws which is 254th in the country. The Bruins own a pair of terrific 6-8 forwards in Nelson (13.9-7.9) and Honeycutt (13.7-7.7) but Nelson is now listed as doubtful for this game (hurt ankle vs Stanford). The team’s 6-10 freshman center, Smith (9.8-6.7), is probable (concussion) plus the jury is still out on Howland’s starting backcourt of Lee (12.8) and Jones (11.5), neither of whom is a true point guard. Arizona has a ton of depth with 10 players participating in all 20 games this year with the standout star being one of the best sophomores in the country, the 6-8 Derrick Williams (19.7-8.0). UCLA could easily get overwhelmed by a deep and talented Arizona team, especially with Nelson sidelined. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Illinois Fighting Illini -4
With plenty of time for Saturday's disappointing loss to Ohio State to fester, expect the Illini to get right back in the win column against this inferior Indiana squad. The Hoosiers return home off back-to-back defeats on the road, but they are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following 2 or more consecutive road losses. Illinois has won 4 in a row against the Hoosiers with 3 of those wins coming by 6 or more points. The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less while the Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Hoosiers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog overall. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* USC -1.5
Reasons why USC will cover:
1) This game falls under one of our powerful college basketball betting systems where you want to play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Arizona State) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, as its 77-34 over the last 5 seasons.
2) USC is 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
3) Arizona State is just 10-21 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons, and are 0-6 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 season
Ray Monohan
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Play: Miami Heat -3½
In the TNT opener, 3.5 will not be enough for the Knicks against the rested Heat, who have had 5 days of rest, which is their longest break between games all season. ATS and SU records for the two clubs tonight. The Miami Heat (31-13 SU, 20-23-1 ATS) vs. the NY Knicks (23-21 SU, 27-15-2 ATS). Last game out Miami was a 120-103 winner at home against the Raptors. New York was a 115-106 winner at home against the Wizards. A few trends I've keyed on for this game: Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York, Miami is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road, NY is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home. Miami hasn’t played since Saturday. James is averaging 36 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists over the past two games for Miami. He's also averaging 25 points in two games against the Knicks this season. His career average is 28.1 in 25 contests. Miami has beaten the Knicks twice this season, winning 113-91 in New York on Dec. 17 and 106-98 at home on Dec. 28. Like the trends say, overall, the Heat have notched seven successive victories in the series. I look for that to continue tonight Heat win by 5+.
EZWINNERS
Boston Celtics -5
The Celtics have dominated this series as they have won nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams and I expect that dominance to continue in this game. Portland has a lot of injury issues with All-Star guard Brandon Roy out due to knee surgery and now their already injury depleted front court has LaMarcus Aldridge playing at less than 100% with a hip contusion. Shaq will not play for Boston in this game, but the Celtics got a boost with the return of center Kendric Perkins in their last game against Cleveland. The Celtics have been resourceful in dealing with their own injury issues as lineup combination's that would have been unimaginable a year ago seem to be clicking. Portland had won five straight games before their loss to Sacramento in their last game, but that winning streak was against teams that have a combined 66-151 record this season. Lay the points with Boston.
Jack Jones
Vanderbilt -6
Vanderbilt is 14-4 this season and clearly the superior team in this SEC showdown Thursday with 10-8 Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are in rebuilding mode this season and it has shown. They have lost six of their last nine games with all six of those losses coming by double-digits. They were beaten by VA Tech by 31, Washington State by 26, Hawaii by 11, St. Mary's by 22, Alabama by 18 and Georgia by 22. Vanderbilt is coming off a 19-point win over St. Mary's to throw in a common opponent here recently. In fact, looking at common opponents Vanderbilt is 4-0 while winning by 12.8 PPG and Mississippi State is 2-2 while getting outscored by 9.2 PPG.
This play falls under a system that is 48-16 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on a road team (VANDERBILT) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games. Vandy is putting up 78.7 PPG this season while Mississippi State is only scoring 68.9 PPG. The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Bet Vanderbilt Thursday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Arizona Wildcats -7.5
Arizona is a perfect 11-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 19.8 points. The Bruins have been a lousy investment when catching points. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, it has been wise to look the other way when UCLA checks in off an ATS victory. That's because the Bruins are a dismal 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. Arizona had won 3 straight over UCLA by an average of 10.3 points before going down in last year's Pac-10 tourney. That loss will serve as more than enough motivation for the Wildcats to get the win and cover tonight. Lay the points.