DAVE COKIN
EAST TENNESSEE STATE AT WOFFORD
PLAY: EAST TENNESSEE STATE +3
Bad habits are hard to break and right now Wofford has a very bad habit. The Terriers are having a real problem finishing games.
Take a look at the last four conference games for Wofford. They had a decent second half lead against Chattanooga but got run out down the stretch en route to a 77-68 loss. The Terriers managed to win against The Citadel, but had to hold their breath as they let a pretty late 14-point lead get all the way down to one possession. I watched that game, and Wofford was in almost panic mode down the stretch as they turned what should have been an easy win into a narrow escape. The Terriers had a 63-60 lead with just a handful of ticks remaining against Mercer and couldn’t hold it in an eventual overtime loss. Last time out, Wofford was up 60-52 against Furman with just over three minutes to play. They were outscored 11-2 in the homestretch and lost the game, 63-62.
I don’t think there’s any question this is a worrisome issue for veteran coach Mike Young. It’s certainly surprising as this is a veteran Terriers team that won 28 games last season and gave Arkansas a major scare in an NCAA Tournament thriller. But for whatever reason, this year’s squad is in a funk and it’s becoming apparent that there’s not likely to be any repeat of last season’s heroics.
Wofford is having a great deal of trouble stopping its opponents from making shots. The Terriers are among the worst teams nationally in defensive field goal percentage, and that’s on both twos and threes. That spells potential trouble against an East Tennessee State squad that can definitely shoot the ball. The Buccaneers are not exactly great stoppers themselves, but they’re the better offensive team and it would appear that they match up pretty well against the Terriers tonight.
I would expect that this will be a close game. But the power ratings favor ETSU and the end game problems for Wofford are a factor at this point. It’s a winnable game for the visitors, and East Tennessee State plus a basket or better looks appealing to me.
Bruce Marshall
William & Mary -7
U-Dee slipped inside of some hefty numbers on the CAA trail last week. But this has still been a painful winter for HC Monte Ross and the Blue Hens, whose SU losing streak has reached 11. No matter, visiting W&M figures to be at full attention in New-ARK after suffering a pair of upset losses to a better Delaware team last season. The Colonial-contending Tribe has bounced back with wins after each previous SU defeat and should be laser-focused after being routed by Hofstra last weekend. W&M still connecting at a very respectable 49% clip from the floor, which the scatter-shooting Blue Hens (barely 40% FGs and 30% triples) can only dream about.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan State -6½
The Spartans beat Maryland last out to snap that 3 game losing streak, despite shooting a dismal 36% from the field. Expect a big shooting performance here Tonight as they travel into Northwestern where they are 12-2 to the spread. Michigan St has covered 17 of 23 as a road favorite from -6.5 to -9 points including 4 of 5 this year. They have also won 12 of 15 vs winning teams this year. Northwestern is fading ands has lost 3 straight. Look for Michigan St to emerge with a win and cover.
Marc Lawrence
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Play: Notre Dame +3½
Edges - Fighting Irish: 5-1 ATS away with revenge. Orange: 0-3 SUATS in lined games after facing Virginia; and 0-4 ATS in lined games before Georgia Tech. With the Irish looking to avenge a 5-point home loss as 8.5-point home favorites in their last meeting with Syracuse, we recommend a 1* play on Notre Dame.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana
Last night, the Hawks were upset, 85-83, by the Los Angeles Clippers, while Indiana also lost at home by two points, 91-89, to the Clippers on Tuesday. We'll fade the Hawks on the road at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, tonight, as they're a poor 10-31 ATS on the road since 1999 when priced from +3 to +12.5 points against an opponent off a loss, if the Hawks played at Home the previous day.
Jesse Schule
Milwaukee vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The Grizzlies will host Milwaukee on Thursday night, and the Bucks are a woeful 7-20 away from home. The Grizzlies on one of the better home records in the league, going 17-7 in Memphis. While Memphis has been involved in more than it's fair share of close games recently, the low number here in a home game against an inferior foe is too temping to pass up.
Five of the Bucks last six away from home have failed to go over the total and they're averaging two points fewer per game on the road than home in Milwaukee. They'll be put to the test here by a Grizzlies side that has been very efficient on defense in recent games. The Grizzlies are one of just six teams that allow opponents to average fewer than 100 points per game.
Memphis has won eight of the last nine in this series, and it has covered the spread in nine of it's last 11 home games. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus the Eastern Conference, while the Bucks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southwest.
Jim Feist
Bulls at Lakers
Pick: Under
Chicago can play defense, No. 12 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 1 in field goal shooting defense. Chicago is 12-3 under the total against the Western Conference and 7-2 under vs. a team with a losing straight up record. They are a long way from home and won't want to run and gun. They face an L.A. Lakers squad that is 10-3 under the total at home and 8-1 under at home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when these teams square off the under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings, including 4-1 under at Los Angeles.
Brad Diamond
Nuggets vs. Wizards
Play: Nuggets +6½
This evening the Wizards are home with a 20-23 record after losing 111-103 last night to Boston. This is their second of back-to-back games on their home floor. Washington is listed as the favorite against a Denver (17-29) team that has struggled all season. They miss guard Nelson who is injured and still out indefinitely. Our charts indicate Nuggets has been the favorite in only 5 games this season. Their current run is 0-4 ATS against Washington, after being swept last year in the series. Denver has been successful as an underdog covering five of their last seven in that role. Washington, although talented, has been very inconsistent because of their extended rash of injuries, and we simply don’t trust them after playing high energy Boston. Teams in back-to-back battles are 2058-2118 ATS during the regular season going all the way back to 2005. In scenario’s where the home team (Washington) has a high probability of covering based on betting interest of 65% or higher…these NBA teams are 84-116 ATS which is 42% ATS. With doggie Denver 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and overdue for a SU win, acquire the best line hopefully around +7
Matt Fargo
Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7
We were on both of these teams this past Saturday as Northwestern didn't show up at Indiana while Michigan St. bounced back from a three-game skid to defeat Maryland at home. Now the Spartans hit the road where they are 3-2 on the season but those wins came against Penn St., Minnesota and Northeastern. The inconsistencies of the Spartans have been on full display over the last month and this is a team that cannot be trusted being favored by this much on the road against a quality team. This was the year that Northwestern was supposed to break out and make its first ever NCAA Tournament and while the season is far from done, the Wildcats need a quality win. They are 15-6 overall including 3-5 in the conference and are coming off a pair of losses at Maryland and Indiana and the game against the Hoosiers ended up being a big letdown following an overtime loss against the Terrapins. Now coming off a blowout loss by 32 points, there should be some extra motivation tonight as the Wildcats search for that elusive quality victory. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Mike Lundin
Bucks vs. Grizzlies
Play: Over 195½
The Memphis Grizzlies are among the best defensive teams in the NBA, but I expect to see a high-scoring encounter when they host the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday night. Each of the Grizzlies last eight have gone over the total and they've scored 100+ points in six straight games and the over is 15-8-1 in their 24 games home at FedExForum this season. Seven of the Bucks' last eight have seen the total climb over 200 points and the over is 27-19 in games involving Milwaukee through the season. They've permitted 45 3-pointers over their last three games, and while the Grizzlies much like the Bucks are among the lesser teams in the NBA from behind the arc, this looks like a good spot to see some action from 3-point land which will drive up the total.
Art Aronson
Nuggets vs. Wizards
Play: Nuggets +6½
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Out of sync: Washington had a four-day layoff because of the East Coast blizzard and hasn't been able to regain its chemistry, losing back to back games, most recently a listless 106-89 road defeat to the Raptors. Guard Bradley Beal suffered a broken nose and concussion in a loss to the Celtics and is still under NBA protocol.
The visitors can shoot: Denver struggles on the defensive end of the floor, but it has no issues in running and gunning with the best of them, note that the Nuggets have eclipsed the 100 point plateau in six-straight games.
Brutal perimeter defensive play: Note that the Wizards are dead last in the league in 3-point percentage defense at 38.2, and they've been particularly inept in that department of late as opponents have hit at a 45.4 percent rate over the last four games.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 overall and 19-12 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Washington is just 11-13 ATS at home this year and only 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
The bottom line: Would you be shocked if the visitors pulled off the upset here against the struggling and injured Wizards? We wouldn't be. That said, in the end we'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for DENVER to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
Heath Mac
Bucks vs. Grizzlies
Play: Over 195½
Both these teams used to be known for their defenses, but coaching and personnel changes now sees them as more balanced sides, which isn’t necessarily a good thing as neither team seems to have much of an identity any more.
The Grizzlies have put up 100+ points in 5 straight games while allowing 100+ points in their last 3 games. The Bucks have put up 107, 99 and 98 points in their last 3 games while allowing 100+ in all 3 of those games. The Bucks best shot blocker in John Henson will miss this game which further adds to the play.
The Grizzlies are 15-9 O/U at home this season. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
Ray Monohan
Bucks vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -5
Memphis welcomes in the Bucks on Thursday night and hold solid value against a very young and brutal road team. The Bucks are just 7-20 SU on the road this season as they score just 96 points themselves and give up 104. Memphis has been a much better home team as they are 17-7 SU and have really dominated on the defensive end. The Grizzlies tinkered with their lineup earlier this season, but the veterans like Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have finally stepped up and filled the roles they're supposed to be dominating in. Look for Memphis to grab a home win here while covering the number.
Will Rogers
Bucks vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 195
The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten into the habit of edging out close game lately, winning five of their last six with the games being decided by an average of only four points. They are still one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, and we should see a low scoring battle when they host the lowly Bucks tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Milwaukee's Perimeter Shooting - The Bucks are fourth worst in the league in three pointers made with only 5.4 per game. They're 14-for-42 from behind the arc in their last three games and that similar shooting tonight will be troubling as points won't come easy in the paint where the Grizzlies are extremely dominant.
2. Home Cookin' - The Grizzlies are 17-7 at home this season, and the under is 24-9 in Grizzlies last 33 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
3. X-Factor - The under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
Mr. Vegas
Knicks vs Raptors
Play: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash. New York is No. 9 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, No. 15 in points allowed. They are on a 2-1 run under the total scoring just 88 and 84 points in two of the contests. Toronto is No. 8 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, No. 4 in points allowed. Toronto is playing great, allowing 81, 94 and 89 points the last three games. Toronto is 18-7 under the total following a spread win.