Brandon Shively
Pepperdine vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego +7
Pepperdine is off a huge win against BYU last Saturday. They have now beaten BYU and also Saint Mary's on their home gym. After the victory against Saint Mary's, they went on the road and lost to Santa Clara. They were in a 'let-down' spot. Well, tonight they find themselves in a similar role going on the road to face San Diego. Pepperdine already beat San Diego last week by 18 points. I can't see them too focused for this game, especially with three of their next four games coming against BYU, Gonzaga, and Saint Mary's.
San Diego is not the best offensive team, but they do play defense and play at a slow pace which makes the points in this game more attractive. Also, the fact that when these teams met last week, Pepperdine was an 11 point home favorite and now we are only seeing a four point adjustment with this game being played on San Diego's home court. I disagree as this line is inflated by 3-4 points just based on last week's score. The odds makers did not factor in the above 'let-down' and 'look-ahead' situation that I mentioned above so we have value on our side.
Pepperdine has a decent starting five and I won't take that away from them. It's their bench that is basically non-existent, especially with two bench players out with injury and another (A.J. Lapray) listed as questionable for tonight's game. While it's easier to mask the lack of depth issue on their home court, it's a different story on the road.
San Diego should be relieved coming back home after playing four consecutive road games. They have lost seven of their last eight games overall so the Toreros aren't going to give a lot of favor from the public which is fine by my standard. Grab the points at home tonight with San Diego in this classic 'let-down/ look-ahead' spot for Pepperdine.
Vernon Croy
Sacramento / New Orleans Over 216
The Kings are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, averaging 106.6 PPG this season, and they play very little defense with opponents averaging 107.7 PPG against them. The Kings do not use the shot clock either, they just run and gun, and now they face another very bad defensive team. The Pelicans have allowed 105.1 PPG this season, which is 26th most in the NBA, and they have also put up an average of 102.5 PPG this season. The Pelicans are one of the best free throw-shooting teams in the NBA, ranked 5th knocking down 79.3% from the line and the Kings have the 6th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA. We have a recipe for a very high-scoring game here Thursday night, so play the over with confidence.
Joe Williams
Notre Dame at Syracuse
Play: Notre Dame +3.5
Notre Dame hits the road for upstate New York looking to improve on their 7-2 ATS mark over the past nine road games. They're also 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 ACC games and 5-1 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a winning home record. While 'Cuse is 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, they're 9-23-2 ATS in their past 34 ACC games, and 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a winning road record. The road team is 13-6 ATS in their past 19 meetings in this series.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas State +12½ over UL LAFAYETTE
This market views Texas State as an inferior team to UL-Lafayette, despite nothing drastic separating the two squads. Sure, UL-Lafayette has not lost a game at home at this year and they even enter this game on an incendiary four-game winning streak. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns are just a marginal 9-8 on the year. It is worth mentioning that UL-Lafayette got off to a rugged 5-8 start before marking off their recent allotment of victories. Overall, UL-Lafayette is 5-3 in conference play. Texas State’s 3-4 conference record is not as prolific as the Ragin’ Cajuns but there is not much of a distinct difference between the mark set by the Bobcats and Louisiana-Lafayette.
In overall wins and losses, the two are nearly identical, as Texas State comes in 9-7 and also enter this game on a winning note. When considering that Texas State’s defense ranks 13th nationally compared to the far more mediocre numbers UL-Lafayette posts defending, we are quick to turn away from offensive-oriented squads like UL-Lafayette, as they have proven on a plethora of occasions to be a dicey play. As they say, “The Devil is truly in the details”.
Prior to their most recent win against Arkansas State on Saturday, Texas State took the Sun Belt’s top-team, Arkansas-Little Rock to overtime before falling by a three-ball. Arkansas State sports the nation’s best scoring defense, surrendering just 58.1 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot just 36.9% from the field (3rd Nationally). Texas State put up 74 points and shot 43.4% from the field against the Trojans, displaying improvement and brilliance in their own ranks. Arkansas-Little Rock is an astounding 17-2 on year and lost just one game in their conference against the very same Arkansas State team that Texas State recently took care of by a margin of 10 points.
We saw a similar narrative unfold just yesterday with Virginia Tech, a team that has proven it can play with the best the ACC has to offer and once again they covered at home against a highly touted Louisville team. We are not implying that Texas State will storm into Lafayette and pull off the upset but it would surprise us not if they kept it scary close. The feasibility of a backdoor cover is certainly probable because even a 20-point lead with five minutes left is not safe when you’re laying 13 points. At any angle you wish to attack this market, there is plenty of value in taking the Bobcats on the road against the Ragin’ Cajuns, as there are likely more points spotted than necessary to craft a true 50/50 proposition. We will chalk this up to a possible oversight toward a less scrutinized mid-major market and to the recognizable quality that the host has over the intruder. One thing we will not do is shy away from taking generous points with this better than advertised hound.
Richmond +5 over GEO WASHINGTON
You take a 15-4 overall GW team at home (4-2 in the A-10) and put them up against a Richmond outfit that is just 10-8 overall (2-4 in the A-10) and the inclination would be to instantly spot the number. However, we’re always suspicious of lines that look too good and this one fits right into that category, especially when you consider that the Colonials are a perfect 11-0 at home. This one should come with a warning sign that says, “Buyer Beware”. We take nothing away from GW, as they have legitimately won its games and there have been some notable ones. The Colonials have already defeated then #6 Virginia. They also have victories over Tennessee and Seton Hall. However, beneath all that are some disturbing games as well, like the six-point win over Fordham, the three-point win at Saint Louis and the 21-point loss at DePaul. At this point last season, GW had an almost identical 15-4 record. The Colonials would then go on to lose six of its last eight games to put an end to any at-large hopes. They are not a better team this year with some significant losses, most notably Kethan Savage and John Kopriva. Savage opted to transfer while Kopriva stepped into the starting lineup during his senior season and responded by averaging 6.7 points and 3.7 rebounds. He was the tough guy in the paint who did the dirty work. If basketball is all about matchups, we’re convinced that this is not a good one for the Colonials.
As for the Spiders,four starters are back for a team that was on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Spiders are coming off back-to-back losses to VCU and Davidson but the former went into OT and the latter was by just seven points. Richmond also has a close, four-point loss to St. Joe’s. This is a team that with some better fortune could have four more wins. Eight of their nine wins have been by nine points or more with seven of those nine being by 15 points or more. The Spiders also have a victory over then #24 California. What we like about the Spiders here is that they’ll always have more/better outside shooters on the floor. Furthermore, Richmond’s, like GW’s, top scorers are forwards. It’ll be hard for the Colonials to find a match-up advantage in this contest and if basketball is all about matchups, then GW could be in trouble here. The Colonials needed two overtimes to get past the Spiders on this floor last season by three points then scored only 48 points in the road re-hook and lost by eight. The power ratings makers generally have GW 1 or 2 points better than Richmond on a neutral floor. You then give the Spiders four more for travelling. We’ll give ‘em a few more for owning more imposing players that the Colonials may not enjoy playing against.
ARIZONA -7½ over Oregon
We often play unranked teams at home getting points against ranked opponents but this one is a little different. It is rare to see an unranked team giving away this many points to a ranked opponent but that’s the case here. Oregon comes in as the #23 ranked team in the country. They are also 5-2 in the conference with an overall record of 16-4. The Ducks have two wins over then ranked, Baylor and USC, but neither were true road games, The Ducks are just 1-3 on the road with losses at Boise State, Oregon State and Colorado. They also have a home loss to UNLV. Let’s not forget that the Ducks lost Pac-12 leading scorer Joseph Young who they relied on heavily last year to create shots and knock down three-pointers. The kicker here is that with Young, the Ducks could never compete with Arizona last season, who they lost to three times by a total of 80 points.
We understand that the Wildcats were blown up this offseason. Of their main nine-man rotation from last season, Arizona’s top four players are gone. However, the reason Arizona is still a top team in the Pac-12 is because as it loses valuable players, new ones come in to take their place. Both the freshmen class and the transfer class for ‘Zona are powerfully talented.The freshmen are led by 5-star shooting guard Allonzo Trier. Trier has been called an offensive juggernaut, something the defense-oriented Wildcats could always use more of. Joining him are two, 4-star recruits. As far as transfers go, perhaps no team in the country has had a better crop at its disposal this season. Arizona is seven deep in scorers. They are 16-4 overall (4-3 in the conference) but in reality we could be discussing a 20-0 team right now, as all of the Wildcats losses have been by four points or less. Coach Sean Miller has the blueprint to wreck the Ducks. Arizona looks up, sees Oregon 5-2 in Pac 12 play, themselves at only 4-3, and decides to play ball. The line says so.
Power Sports
Elon vs. Hofstra
Pick: Elon
I hesitate to pin my hopes solely on the revenge angle, but I think Elon is a strong play here, taking this many points. It was an 80-76 final when the Phoenix lost to Hofstra three weeks ago and since that time things have gone quite differently for the two teams. That has created some nice value on the dog for the rematch.
Elon has won just one of its last five games, a one-point victory at College of Charleston as 4.5-pt dogs. They've been blown out in B2B games, first by William & Mary (who Hofstra just beat) and then James Madison. Consider though that the Phoenix have been double digit dogs just three times all year: at Duke, at Syracuse and at Michigan. Taking points on the road, they are 5-3 against the spread.
Hofstra is riding high after an upset win at Northeastern last week, which they followed up by destroying William & Mary, 91-63 as 3.5-pt home favorites.The Pride are now in a three-way tie atop the CAA, so this is one of those opportune times to "sell high." Twice, they've been double digit chalk in conference play and neither team did they cover. This spread is higher than what they were laying against either Drexel or Delaware, two teams that are below Elon in the standings.
Brian Hay
Washington vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -6
Washington enters this game with an overall record of 13-6 and a road record of 2-1. The Bruins have an overall record of 12-8 and a home record of 9-2. The Washington Huskies have managed to win enough games to this point to be leading the PAC-12 but they have done it with smoke and mirrors. This will stop tonight against UCLA. The Bruins have already beat Arizona in this building this season and will easily take care of Washington tonight. Washington is coming off a tough home OT loss to Utah which is the start of their magic wearing off. Washington is 6-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss in their previous outing.
Jimmy Boyd
Syracuse -2
The Orange are showing tremendous value here as a small home favorite against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is simply getting way too much respect here due to coming in being ranked inside the Top 25 and riding a 4-game winning streak, especially when you factor the Irish will be without starting point guard Demetrius Jackson, who leads the team in scoring (15.5 ppg) assists (5.0 apg) and steals (1.2 spg). Jackson is also shooting 50% from the field and is one of Notre Dame's best 3-point shooters at 39%.
Syracuse comes into this game just 3-5 inside ACC play, but they have been playing much better of late. The Orange had won 3 straight before a 8-point loss at Virginia, which was an awful spot, given they were just coming off a huge win at Duke and playing their 3rd straight on the road. I personally don't think the Irish are anything special and certainly don't see them winning on the road without Jackson against what will be a highly motivated Syracuse team.
The Irish won their last game 76-49 against awful Boston College, but that's important to note, as Notre Dame is just 5-17 TS in their last 22 off a conference win by 20 or more points. Irish are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when coming off 3 straight games where they made 47% or more of their field goal attempts.
Bill Biles
Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan State -6.5
After finally ending there losing streak Michigan State now looks to build a winning streak again. Michigan State has won five straight over the Wildcats and Northwestern is 0-4 against ranked opponents. Look for the Spartans to be dominant in this one.
Brandon Lee
Iowa vs. Maryland
Play: Iowa +5
No team is playing better than the Hawkeyes in the Big 10 and this team isn't going to be the least bit intimidated by going on the road to face the Terrapins. Maryland is a team that gets a lot of love, but their 6 conference wins have come against Penn State, Northwestern (2x), Rutgers, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Keep in mind they only beat the Badgers by 3-points on the road and needed overtime to escape with a win at home against Northwestern. Iowa is a team on a mission and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Either way I expect this one to go right down to the wire, creating big time value on the Hawkeyes.
Wunderdog
UTEP @ Southern Miss
Pick: UTEP -145
While the Southern Mississippi football team rises back into respectability, the basketball team, off some strong seasons, is in rebuilding mode this year. The Golden Eagles hoops squad has posted a 5-12 mark through 17 games this season. The Golden Eagles have not shot the ball well at all, coming in at an ugly 39.3% on the season. After four straight wins UTEP hit a tough part of the schedule, and have been 1-4 over their last five. The strong stretch of schedule showed them playing above the line as they cashed three of the five ATS. The Miners have a lot more answers on offense, as they average just shy of 75 points per contest. That scoring will put a lot of pressure on a poor shooting Southern Miss team to find a way into the win column. If this becomes a tight game down the stretch, the Miners have a clear path to the finish line, so I will back them on the moneyline.
Ian Cameron
Oregon at Arizona
Play: Arizona -7.5
Oregon and Arizona will do battle in Tucson tonight in a key PAC-12 clash. Oregon is 5-2 in PAC-12 play and tied with Washington for top spot in the conference while Arizona is just 4-3 inside the conference so the Wildcats will be looking to draw even with the Ducks in the PAC-12 standings. Oregon enters this game off back-to-back impressive home wins against USC and UCLA but they have not been as strong away from Eugene with a 1-3 SU record. The Ducks have been known to have excellent guard play for years under Dana Altman but this year, they boast a very imposing frontcourt with the likes of Dillon Brooks, Elgin Cook, Jordan Bell and Chris Boucher. That strength inside though will be tested and even negated to a large extent by Arizona which has had plenty of quality low post players with Kaleb Tarczewski, Ryan Anderson and Mark Tollefsen averaging a collective 34.2 points and 21.8 rebounds per game. Arizona has been able to survive and fight through some personnel depletion with shooting guard Elliott Pitts having missed the last five games (3-2 SU/ATS during that span) due to a personal matter as well as talented freshman guard Allonzo Trier who remains out indefinitely with a broken hand. Arizona has been a juggernaut squad once again here at the McKale Center this season at 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS. We should see an inspired and motivated effort from Arizona off a hard fought, tough 74-73 road loss at California on Saturday. The last time Arizona was in this exact situation of returning home following a road loss in PAC-12 play, they went on to annihilate Washington 99-67 as -14 home favorites earlier this month. This was repeatedly a nightmare matchup for Oregon last season as the Ducks lost all three meetings against the Arizona by margins of 18, 34 and 28 points with the latter defeat coming in the PAC-12 Tournament. Look for the home side to post a commanding win.
David Banks
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Maryland Terrapins
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +4
The hottest team in the Big Ten is ninth-ranked Iowa, which has won nine games in a row. Two of the wins were over Michigan State,
which was ranked No. 1 the first time the two teams met. The Hawkeyes destroyed the Spartans in both meetings and have pretty much done the same to all their opponents in the nine-game streak. They have also beaten 22nd-ranked Purdue twice and haven’t lost since an 83-82 loss to a very good Iowa State team.
The Hawkeyes, 16-3 overall and 7-0 in the Big Ten, are tied for the conference lead with Indiana. They face one of the most talented teams in the league in Maryland, currently ranked No. 7 in the nation. The Terps have struggled lately with losses to Michigan and Michigan State in their last four games. Maryland has also struggled against ranked opponents losing both times. In addition to the Spartans loss on Saturday, the Terps lost to North Carolina earlier in the season.
Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg) leads all five starters who average in double figures. Freshman Diamond Stone averages 13.2 points and 5.5 rebounds in just a little over 20 minutes per game. The Terps will have to deal with probably the biggest surprise in the Big Ten – Jarrod Uthoff. The 6-9 senior averages 18.7 points and 6.3 rebounds each game and could be on his way to a conference player of the year honor. One thing Maryland does have as an advantage is playing at home. This could be one of the Big Ten’s best games all season.
Vegas Butcher
New Orleans Pelicans +3.5
The Pelicans are without Anthony Davis, which is a big loss of course. But teams tend to step up in the short-term without their ‘superstars’. New Orleans has had 2 full days off to prepare to play without Davis and I expect them to step up in this matchup. With Evans, Holiday, Ryan Anderson, and even Norris Cole, New Orleans has some decent playmakers and shot-makers in the lineup. At the very least they are greatly undervalued in this one. Kings are 1-7 ATS as road favorites of around 3 points or so, and they are once again overvalued in this matchup. I’ll grab the points here.
Andy Iskoe
UAB -4
Expected to win Conference USA, UAB started slowly in pre conference play, standing 3-3 after its first 6 games. But the Blazers have not lost since back to back losses to Illinois and Virginia Tech, reeling off 14 straight wins (8-2 ATS). They are 7-0 SU in conference play (5-2 ATS) although only 2 of those conference games have been on the road. But this has not been a typical season for Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are just 2-5 (SU and ATS) in conference play as they play their first home game since January 9. This is normally a spot in which I would back the home dog but with UAB playing as well as they have the line is priced a couple of points below where I would put it for this matchup. I expect Western Kentucky to keep this game close and they might even make for a good first half play but ultimately UAB wears down the Hilltoppers in a game I have them winning by from 7 to 10 points.
GoodFella
Oregon St / Arizona St Under 141
I have this total at 139 so value for me here at this number. Both meetings last season between these clubs went way under the total (the highest being 128). Neither team shoots the ball very well, especially ASU who really struggles from 3-pt land (32%). Add on that both clubs hold opponents to shooting 44% or less from the field. I see a defensive minded grind it out type of game here & I am on the UNDER 141 this evening.