Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Hofstra as the home chalk over Elon.
Big number to be laying for a 14-6 Hofstra team that is playing a 12-9 Elon team, but I say the Pride can pull away and cover this impost!
Elon comes to Long Island having dropped their last pair and 4 of their last 5 both straight up and against the spread. That spin started with a home loss to Hofstra 80-76 as the +3 point home dog.
Hofstra meanwhile is just the opposite, as the Pride has won 4 of their last 5, and they have also won 8 of 10 overall. It is Hofstra's 91-63 win over Colonial Conference contender William and Mary their last time out that has this impost a tad jacked-up.
The Pride has won ALL 3 conference meetings since last season, and they have covered in 2 of those 3.
I say lay the double-digits with Hofstra.
3* HOFSTRA
Brad Wilton
Hard to go against the streaking Hawkeyes who have achieved their highest rankings since the 1980's!
Iowa will head to Maryland riding a 9-game winning streak, a streak that has seen them dump Purdue not once but twice, and also complete the season series sweep of Michigan State. That would be a Michigan State team that the Terrapins lost to 74-65 their last time out. Mark Turgeon's team has now split their last 4 games straight up, while going 1-3 against the spread their last 4 games, and just 4-5 against the spread their last 9 games overall.
The Hawkeyes took last year's meeting at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 71-55 as the -6 1/2 point favorite, and they also took the 2013 meeting, 71-60 at Maryland as the -3 point favorite.
This is by far Fran McCaffery's best squad, and in this near pick'em contest, I will side with the Hawkeyes to keep things moving in the winning direction.
Iowa the Call.
4* IOWA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Maryland Terrapins minus the points at home over the Iowa Hawkeyes. At the time of this writing, the Terps are laying five points in Vegas and offshore.
Two of the top teams in the Big 10, let alone the country, square off tonight in College Park as they both continue to chase Indiana in a very competitive conference race.
Iowa is currently ranked 4th in the country and shooting for their 10th straight victory while Maryland comes in licking their wounds from a beatdown they took in East Lansing over the weekend.
Simply put, Maryland doesn't lose at home and they know what's on the line tonight. The place will be packed and the atmosphere will be electric.
Take the Terps minus the points as your free play of the day.
2* MARYLAND
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Santa Clara plus the points at Gonzaga.
Gonzaga has been shackled with some big imposts, and quite frankly, Mark Few's Bulldogs haven't been up to backing their investors, as the 'Zags are on a 4-11-1 spread slide their last 16, and they have also gone just 3-7-1 against the spread their last 11 in Spokane.
Santa Clara has been a thorn in the side of the Bulldogs, covering in each of the last 6 in this series. Sure, all of them have been straight up losses, but with the points the Broncos have punched the ticket.
The 7 win Broncs have actually split their last 6 straight up, and they have gone 5-3-1 against the spread on the road thus far this season.
Another Gonzaga straight up win for sure, but with the points it's hard to argue against another Santa Clara series cover - their 7th in a row.
Take the points.
2* SANTA CLARA
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Southern Utah at IDAHO STATE (-5')
The STORYLINE in this game today - In Big Sky play, Idaho State hosts Southern Utah, and my free play for tonight is on the home team, as I see the Bengals winning by double digits. Though Southern Utah leads the series 15-9, the teams have split the last six meetings. The Bengals, however, were swept last season.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds are normally a scrappy basketball team that is dangerous in certain spots. This year they can't be trusted. They're 4-13 overall and 2-5 in Big Sky Conference play. And while they're scoring 72.5 points a game overall and 77 in conference, they're allowing 84.2 overall and 86.4 in league.
BOTTOM LINE is - Southern Utah traveling makes things worse in this game, as you're going to see a weary team buckle under Idaho State's defensive pressure. The Bengals may score 100 tonight.
5* IDAHO STATE
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Bulls vs. Lakers
Play: Bulls -8½
The Bulls are in a good spot here for a big win as they are off of a low-scoring home loss versus Miami on Monday. That means Chicago is both motivated to bounce back and also well-rested as they now take on the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Bulls will take advantage of facing a weaker foe. The Lakers have lost 7 straight games and 11 of their last 12. LA hasn't exactly been ultra-competitive either. Prior to the tight loss against Dallas, the six prior Lakers defeats all came by a margin of at least 13 points. The Bulls beat the Lakers by 20 on Christmas Day 2014 but they then lost to the Lakes in LA last January. That means revenge is on order here which further strengthens this play. The Bulls have a long-term ATS streak of a solid 25-15 when they are a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Between the 25th and the 31st, this is Chicago's only game. That means the Lakers, as bad as they are, certainly have the full focus of the Bulls in this spot. Chicago has plenty of energy and doesn't have to worry about conserving any energy. All of this is a given based on the scheduling situation and that should spell "road rout" in this one!
JACK JONES
UConn -2
The UConn Huskies are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bearcats tonight. These are two very evenly-matched teams, but I believe the home-court advantage for the Huskies is going to push them over the top.
UConn has won three straight coming in with a 12-point win at Houston, an 18-point home win over Tulane, and a 6-point home win over Georgetown. The Huskies are now 10-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game in the process.
Cincinnati has been vulnerable on the road as its just 3-3 SU in true road games. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. UConn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with Cincinnati overall.
The Bearcats are 15-30 ATS in their last 45 games following a conference win by 20 points or more. UConn is 55-35 ATS in its last 90 games following a win by 6 points or less. The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% or more of their attempts this season.
Teddy Covers
Michigan St vs. Northwestern
Pick: Michigan State
In Chris Collins first two years on the job, Northwestern went 6-12 SU and 6-12 SU in Big 10 play. This year’s squad has all the makings of another team primed for a 6-12 finish, even with all of their key rotation cogs returning.
The Wildcats have played four true ‘step-up’ games this season, losing three of them by double digits, unable to hang with superior competition. The Wildcats methodical efficiency is good enough for them to beat their weaker foes. But the fact that they’ve lost six straight against the Spartans, five of them by big margins, tells us very clearly that the Wildcats aren’t going to have an easy time hanging tough tonight.
And Northwestern is trending in the wrong direction. This team opened up the campaign with a 13-1 SU mark, beating up numerous non-conference patsies while going 3-0 in OT games during that span. But, as is often the case for the Wildcats, once the rigors of the Big 10 campaign begin, the Wildcats SU and ATS success ends. They’re 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS in their last seven games. That includes home losses by margin to Penn State, Ohio State and Maryland. Saturday’s complete no-show at Indiana – a 32 point defeat that was essentially over by halftime – doesn’t leave the Wildcats with much confidence moving forward.
Michigan State snapped their ugly three game skid – the Spartans longest losing streak in the last three seasons -- with a solid win and cover against #7 Maryland over the weekend. Perhaps the most impressive thing about that victory is that Tom Izzo’s squad took care of business SU and ATS despite a poor shooting game, hitting a season low 36% of their shots. Team leader Denzel Valentine following the win: “We felt like we were on the bottom of the world. But I think we’re back.” Forward Kenny Goins: “It feels great to get over that hump. Every team has to go through it during the course of the season, but we got ours out of the way. Hopefully we can build off this and keep going.”
The Spartans certainly didn’t struggle the last time they played Northwestern, winning by 24 on this floor (as -7 favorites) when they visited Evanston last year; a game that was over by halftime when the Spartans led 38-14. In fact, the Spartans have won six straight against the Wildcats, with five of those victories coming by double digit margins. In three of those wins, the Wildcats were held to 51 points or less, an offense that doesn’t seem to work when stepping up against Izzo’s athletic defenders.
Michigan State’s defense on the perimeter is nothing short of outstanding, holding opponents to 28% shooting from three point range for the entire season. That’s bad news for a Northwestern team that takes more than 40% of their shots from beyond the arc. Look for Sparty to grind this one out and seal it at the free throw line where they shot 15% better than Northwestern over their last five games.
SPS Investors
New York vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
These two Atlantic division rivals square off from Air Canada Center tonight in the first game of TNT's double-header! To say the Toronto Raptors have done well recently would be an understatement. They have won 9 in a row and are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment! We believe they'll take this game and set a new franchise record by making it 10 consecutive wins in the process but whether they do so by double-digits or not is another question and will have a lot to do with whether All-Star PG, Kyle Lowry is healthy or not. Lowry is questionable for this contest and may or may not feature. The Canadian Cory Joseph is back home and has proven capable as the backup point-guard, fitting in seemlessly. We believe he's up to the task and will play a role in securing the W for the home side but if Lowry does not play or is at less than 100%, the 3-point shooting of the Raptors will suffer and this could end up being a lower scoring game.
On the other side, Carmelo Anthony has been ruled out and the Knicks will no doubt miss their prolific shooter. Lance Thomas will likely get the start for NY at the small-forward position and while talented on both ends, he's a better defender than 'Melo and should help the Knicks guard the perimeter. Thomas is also capable offensively and will chip in with some points but overall he's not as big an offensive threat as Carmelo while being a better defender than him, meaning his presence on the court instead of Anthony often results in slightly lower scoring matchups. Robin Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis meanwhile are healthy and will play. And while both (especially the Latvian import) have a good offensive skillset, they are both legitimate rim protectors and shot-blockers! It won't be as easy for DeMar DeRozan and company to drive to the basket as they normally do. Nor will it be simple for Knicks to get their points in the paint as Jonas Valanciunas has recently grown more comfortable in Toronto's system and Bismack Biyombo is an excellent shot-blocker and defensive rebounder.
We expect both teams to play with a more methodical pace and avoid costly turnovers that lead to easy baskets for the opposition. The Raptors have revenge in mind after a narrow loss in NY which is their only loss within the division! They are 7-1 against Atlantic opponents and will want pay back for that defeat. Head coach Dwane Casey is a defense-first type of leader and will emphasize a solid effort on that end of the court. Look for his team to play a fundamentally sound game and take their time with the ball especially if they are forced to play without Kyle Lowry. These two have played some high-scoring games recently which is why the betting public is blindly expecting another but the circumstances are different tonight and this one is likely to go just 'under' the set total.
Other notable facts to consider:
Toronto games have gone 'Under' 9 straight times since December 2014 as a home favorite of 8+ points after a home game!
The Knicks are 0-10 Over/Under over the last decade as an underdog with less than 2 days of rest after a home game in which they had at least 18 fast-break points!
14 of Toronto's 21 games have gone 'Under' this season when they've played teams with losing records.
Harry Bondi
IOWA +5 over Maryland
FREE WINNERS are on a nice 10-3 run and tonight we'll back one of the best teams in the nation, Iowa over Maryland. What do the Hawkeyes have to do to get some respect from the oddsmakers? They are the only unbeaten team in the Big 10 and one of Top 10 teams in the country, but they continue to be short favorites at home and dogs on the road and all they do is continue to win and cover! A good way to tell how good a team is this time of year is by looking at their strength of schedule. Iowa has the 18th toughest S.O.S. in the country while Maryland is 78th. Iowa’s resume is impressive. They have beaten Michigan State twice, Purdue twice and Michigan. Maryland, on the other hand, has one win over a Top 20 program. A victory over UCONN two months ago. The Hawkeyes are a deeper and talented team that can shoot the lights out. They have shot 41% on 3-pointers, and 50% on two's this year. Perhaps their most impressive trait is their versatility. Not only can their bigs rebound, they can shoot. 6’9 forward Jarrod Uthoff is 48% from behind the arc and 6’8 Dom Uhl is 51.3% from 3-point land. Amazingly 6 players on their team shoot better than 40% from deep. Let's take the better team getting points and don't be surprised when they win outright!
Bruce Marshall
Oregon +7.5
Pac-12 sources report that ultra-athletic, conference co-leader Oregon is on mission in the desert after enduring three blowout series losses a year ago. The Ducks' highly-productive Canadian import 6-10 jr. F Chris Boucher (12.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 3.3 bpg) is a major force on both ends, while fellow Canuck, dynamic 6-6 soph Dillon Brooks (16.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg), is a nightmare matchup. Note that somewhat-shorthanded Arizona (sans injured No. 2 scorer G Allonzo Trier) hit 50% from the field but still fell short in its 74-73 loss Saturday at hurting Cal, which was missing top scorer Tyrone Wallace.
Primetime Insiders
UTEP -2
All comes down to UTEP's ability to play excellent defense. USM who is anemic already is going to have a lot of trouble scoring against UTEP. UTEP should score enough with a talented squad. The key is UTEP's ability to get to the line and limit USM's FT count. Artis, More and Winn should have a huge night on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Vint and Winn are enforcers down low and make it difficult for teams to score. Love this matchup for the Miners tonight with a easy double digit win!
Old Dominion -6.5
On the road not a big concern due to the experienced ODU team. Like their ability to hit the glass with Taylor and have the advantage of great guard play with Freeman and Bacote. The key is ODU shutting down the 3 point shot of FIU.
East Tennessee State +3
Another road team with ETSU tonight. ETSU has played excellent ball in conference play and should shine against an underperforming Wofford squad. ETSU should have no trouble scoring and taking care of the ball against Wofford. The key is limiting the 3 ball which has been a strength of ETSU limiting teams to 31% from downtown.
Mercer -15
We are going against VMI again and feel great about it. Similar to Siena, this Mercer team should really be able to dominate the glass and control the game. I wish Mercer had a more prolific offense but VMI really doesn't play defense so they should score enough to get the victory. The key is Mercer dominating the offensive glass. If they can do this, it should once again get out of hand.
SIU-Edwardsville -7.5
Yep we are doing it...backing a terrible team like Edwardsville. However, it is a great matchup against a very poor SEMO team. SIUE is going to be a matchup nightmare for SEMO with the size and ability to crash the glass. The key for SIUE is going to be limiting the FTs for SEMO. If they can do so it won't be close in the second half.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – TORONTO (-10½) over New York
Toronto is playing really well with Jonas Valanciunas back in the lineup and DeMarre Carroll on the injured list (he’s a negative) and I expect the Raptors to extend their 9 game winning streak and their covering run (8-1 ATS). The line may seem big but Carmelo Anthony is out for the Knicks and my player specific ratings favor the Raptors by 13 points in this game. I’ll lean with Toronto based on the line value.
Opinion – William & Mary (-6½) over DELAWARE
William & Mary was humiliated 63-91 at Hofstra on Sunday but the Tribe are 19-3 ATS after a loss the last 3 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My ratings favor William & Mary by 7.8 points and I’ll lean with the Tribe at -7 or less based on their habit of bouncing back.