VEGAS EXPERTS
Wisconsin at Purdue
Wisconsin has failed to cover in its last three games and that streak doesn't figure to come to an end tonight in West Lafayette, where the Badgers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine visits. Like it seems with just about every other team in the country, Wisky struggles on the road, going just 4-4 and averaging only 63.2 PPG. That's not enough vs. a Purdue team averaging nearly 80 PPG on their home floor and playing with revenge for a seven-point loss in Madison earlier this month.
Play on: Purdue
Matt Fargo
Loyola Chicago vs. Detroit U
Play: Loyola Chicago +9.5
The last time I backed Loyola-Chicago, the Ramblers nearly pulled off the outright upset at home against Butler but they were able to easily cover the 12-point number. Two days later, they lost at home against Valparaiso by 19 points which was almost inevitable coming off that big game so a letdown was in store. While losing that big against a bad Crusaders team was surprising, what it does is give us some enormous value in this game which is the first since that defeat. Loyola-Chicago has been pretty good on the road this season as it is 5-4 and the last two losses, both within the Horizon, have been tight. The Ramblers are 2-2 on the road in conference games and with a decent record like that, getting close to double-digits in another conference game is a definite take. This is also a revenge for Loyola-Chicago who lost at home to the Titans earlier this month by 17 points. Detroit is having a very good season as well but a lot of that has had to do with the schedule. The Titans have played the 213th ranked schedule in the nation and the best win of the 12 victories is Western Michigan who has the highest power ranking of all teams Detroit has defeated. That is far from a quality win and after an 11-5 start, the Titans have lost three of their last four games including two straight at home. Granted those last two home losses were against Wright St. and Butler, this team is starting to slip in the other direction. According to Yahoo Sports, second-year coach Ray McCallum said that his young Titans are experiencing some midseason growing pains. “As we try to climb, we're in uncharted waters,” he told Fox Sports Detroit. “This group hasn't been together and been through the wars.” That tells me that even he doesn’t know what to expect from his team. The Ramblers have played the tougher schedule and they have advantages in three top statistical categories. The have a better assist/turnover ratio, shoot better from the free throw line and have a better rebounding margin. The margins are slim but they are positive. Looking at the Titans assist/turnover ratio shows it sitting at 0.83 and for a team that has played such a soft schedule, that ratio is horrible. Loyola-Chicago falls into a solid bounce back situation as well. Play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and now playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
LT Profits
Hawaii vs San Jose State
The Hawaii Warriors may be 0-4 away from the islands this season, but this visit to the San Jose State Spartans looks a tad easier than their prior trips to the mainland and Hawaii can compete here.
After all, the Warriors had little chance as double-digit underdogs at Utah State and Fresno State, and they also lost on a neutral court to an excellent St. Marys team. San Jose is one of the rare sites on the mainland where Hawaii has had success, as they covered in a narrow two-point loss here last season and they won outright in their prior three visits.
Besides, the Spartans are not the type of team that blows people away this season. They are a mediocre 11-8 overall while barely outscoring their opponents by a tiny +0.3 points per game, and while they are 8-1 at home, they are outscoring their home Division I competition by +4.4 points per game, which is only about half of this posted line.
San Jose simply does not play good enough defense to lay this may points, as they are allowing 75.1 points per game overall and are not much better here, allowing 73.8 points per game at home. In fact, they have a dismal adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 1.086 points per possession according to the Pomeroy Ratings, which ranks 299 out of 347 Division I schools.
Now Hawaii may not win this game outright, but they should put up just enough points vs. thos Spartans defense to hang around until the final buzzer.
Pick: Hawaii +8.5
Tom Freese
California at Arizona St.
Prediction: Arizona St.
Arizona St is 14-6 overall and 4-3 in Conference Play. Rihards Kuksiks scores 13 points a game while shooting 39% from beyond the arc. The Sun Devils play great defense allowing just over 53 points a game. Guard Derek Glasser scores 10.4 points a night while shooting just under 40% from beyond the arc. Guard Ty Abbott scores 10.1 points a night while shooting over 41% from three point land. Three other players 7.9 to 7.4 points a night. The Sun Devils are 16-5 ATS their last 21 off an ATS loss and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of under 40%. California is 13-5 overall and 5-2 in Conference Play. The Bears have 4 double digit scorers led by guard Jerome Randle and his 18.7 points a game and 4.7 assists a game. Guard Patrick Christopher 16.3 points a night while pulling down 5.5 rebounds a night. Theo Robertson plays forward and he scores 14.3 points a night while shooting over 46% from the arc. Forward Jamal Boykin scores 11.1 points a night and grabs 6.3 rebounds. No other player scores more than 5.6 points a game. The Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS their last 6 games as underdogs and they are 4-9 ATS their last 13 Pac 10 games. PLAY ON ARIZONA ST -
LEE KOSTROSKI
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
PICK: Toronto Raptors +3.5
I’m playing on the Toronto Raptors plus whatever points are available over the New York Knicks. The Knicks have been up and down recently and resemble my blood pressure when watching games. In their last 10 games the Knicks are 4-6 SU and ATS with three of those four wins coming against teams with losing records. In fact, of New York’s last 10 wins only 3 have come versus teams with above .500 records. Tonight the Knicks face a red hot Raptors team that has won 13 of their last 18 games which includes big wins over the Lakers, Heat, Mavericks, Magic, Spurs, Hornets and Bobcats.
Toronto did play last night at home and got a nice victory over the visiting Heat 111-103 and I expect that positive momentum to carry over to this evening. The Raptors haven’t been great when playing without rest (just 2-8 ATS) but they did spread their minutes out last night as 8 players logged 20 plus minutes and their ninth man, Antoine Wright, played just over 17 minutes so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Toronto shot over 56% as a team last night and are hitting over 48% of their shots their last five games. That hot shooting will likely happen again tonight as the Knicks are one of the worst teams in the league in FG% ‘D’ allowing an average of 47.7% against.
These two teams just recently met and the Raptors beat the Knicks by 8-points in the Garden, 112-104. The game wasn’t as close as the final score though as the Raptors led by as many as 28-points in that game. Expect similar results tonight as the Raptors win this game outright again
JR O'Donnell
ST John's vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -8.5
Pitt Panthers to get healthy tonight vs the Johnnies St. John's (12-7) at No. 17 Pittsburgh (15-4) we're on pitt as this will be a popular play but it's a winner !!!!! a few jr o fast facts for the winner DEFENSE & FREE THROWS !!! Jr o's camp going to WESTERN PA as the 15-4 overall & 9-6 -2 ats Pitt Panthers host the Johnnies 12-7 overall and 9-7 ats tonight. The Johnnies will get blasted tonight as we see a double digit romp by the Panthers who have punished the Johnies in this series. Huge edges from the charity stripe as the Panthers have shot 78% the last 5 & rebounding end give us the recipe for a blow out!! We fee that the Panthers have under achieved so far in 2009/2010 and a Old Fashioned blow out is needed, The St Johns crew had a similar schedule last year and down the stretch they got blasted by Pitt, Uconn & Nova!!!! Pitt 7-1-1 ats last 9 and the home team holds serve 7-2 the last 9
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on NY Knicks -3
Tough spot for Toronto heading out on the road tonight, where it is just 8-16 on the season, after just playing last night. Plus, the Knicks will be out for revenge tonight after falling at home to the Raptors back on January 15th. The Knicks will have momentum on their side as well after a blowout victory over Minnesota Tuesday, and plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team, are 32-9 ATS since 1996 and 18-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the Knicks laying a small number at home tonight.
Ben Burns
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
This price is a little too steep to qualify as one of my 'guaranteed' plays. That said, I feel that the Penguins have an excellent shot at winning and that the high price is actually reasonable.
These teams have met three times this season. They split the two games at Ottawa. However, the Pens won by a score of 8-2 in the lone meeting here at Pittsburgh. Note that the Pens were laying -200 (or greater) for that meeting. In fact, they've been laying a minimum of -200 for four of their last five home meetings with the Sens. That makes this evening's price start to seem a lot more fair.
The Senators come in on a red hot roll, the primary reason for the lower price on the Pittsburgh. That said, the Pens are a different animal. The Pens, who haven't played since 1/25, are 2-0 their last two games. I mention that they haven't played since 1/25 as they're an outstanding 41-14 the last 55 times that they played with two day's worth of rest in between games.
With an O/U line of 5.5, its also worth noting that the Pens are a profitable 48-16 (+22.6) the last 64 times that they played a home game with a total of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Sens are a money-burning 26-37 (-9.8) when playing a road game with a total of 5.5. Looking for a "high-percentage winner?" Consider laying the wood.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Purdue -9.5
Purdue will be out for revenge tonight after losing at Wisconsin earlier this month. One big difference tonight is that Wiscy will be without Jon Leuer, who is a double double threat every night. He was a monster on the boards in the season's first meeting, coming down with 10 rebounds, and the Badgers will greatly miss his inside presence in this one. Purdue is 9-1 at home on the season where it is winning by 18.9 points per game, and it is one of the few schools in the Big Ten that has had Wisconsin's number. In fact, Purdue is 8-1 SU & ATS versus Wisconsin at home since 1997 and the Badgers are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall. Wiscy is only 1-9 ATS in road games versus excellent teams shooting 45% or better from the field and holding its opponent to 42% or worse from the field the last 2 seasons. Plus, Purdue is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 73.1 to 56.0. Bet the Boilermakers.
Stephen Nover
Dallas +2 at PHOENIX
Still think the Phoenix Suns are a good team? Well they aren't right now.
Phoenix opened the season on fire winning 14 of its first 17 games. Since then, however, the Suns have gone 12-18. They are 2-7 in their past nine games.
The Suns have a strong home won-lost record, but have covered just one of their past five home contests. Dallas has the best road mark in the Western Conference by far. The Mavericks are 16-8 in their road matchups, 15-9 ATS.
The Mavericks also are 12-4 in games decided by five points or fewer. Oddsmakers definitely believe this is going to be a tight game with the Suns opening 2 1/2-point favorites.
Dallas has finally gotten healthy, while the Suns are without guard Leandro Barbosa. He's out following wrist surgery. Goran Dragic has played well replacing Barbosa, but the Suns may also be without Grant Hill. He missed his first game of the season in Phoenix's last game because of a bruised heel.
The Mavericks rank No. 1 in the NBA in free throw percentage. The Suns are 29th in defense.
The game is being televised nationally by TNT. Normally that might be a plus for the home team, but the Suns have lost the past 18 times they've been on TNT.
2♦ MAVERICKS
Drew Gordon
Virginia Tech +3 at VIRGINIA
47-29-3 roll L79 Free Plays (15-6 L21)! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hokies/Cavaliers match up.
I know bettors are expecting Virginia to bounce back hard here, just one game removed from an ugly effort at Wake Forest, but I'm not convinced. One of the first things you should have noticed by the line movement is that G Delaney IS going to play. Virginia Tech will have its best player on the court, and that's big in this contest, because he's head and shoulders better than anyone else on their roster.
Looking back, the last time these two teams played Virginia blew the doors off of Virginia Tech 75-61 on this very same court last season. For a rivalry game that effort was an embarrasment by Hokies standards, and I fully expect they'll be looking to exact their revenge tonight. Note, the Hokies have shown plenty of fight on the road thus far, winning at Iowa, outright at Penn State, & covering at Florida St... So underestimate them at your own risk in this revenge spot.
Finally, while Allen and Davila have heard it from disappointed Hokies fans, this match up is looking good for the Virginia Tech frontline. Mike Scott is a solid player, but nothing to write home about (6 points, 3 turnovers at Wake Forest). The rest of Virginia's frontline is below average at best, and should have real trouble matching up. In the end, this is a rivalry game featuring one team hell bent on revenge (Va. Tech), while the other team is coming off an ugly effort with a HUGE lookahead game at Chapel Hill on deck! Play here rests squarely on the Hokies!
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Virginia in this college hoops match up.
1♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Michael Cannon
Wake Forest at GEORGIA TECH -5'
I am now 70-55-3 with my last 128 free plays.
Take Georgia Tech as the home chalk tonight over Wake Forest.
The Yellow Jackets have won their last three ATS and are 2-1 SUATS in ACC home games. For the year Georgia Tech is 9-1 SU at Alexander Coliseum, going 4-1 ATS in lined contests.
Wake Forest hasn’t had success in this series on the road, going 1-5 ATS in the last six in Atlanta and the host is 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) in the last nine.
The Demon Deacons have failed to cover in five straight games on Thursday while the Yellow Jackets are on pointspread runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-2 in ACC play, 4-1 on Thursday, 5-0 after a SU loss, 8-2 after an ATS win and 4-1 against winning teams.
Take Georgia Tech minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ GEORGIA TECH
Brett Atkins
Tonight I've got a free winner coming on the college hardwood as I go with Pitt to get the job done at home over St. John's in Big East play.
To put it very simply – St. Johns is not a good basketball team. And now they have to go to Pitt and face a Panthers team at home making its first start since losing the nation’s longest home winning streak. This has blowout written all over it. Pitt might win this one by 25.
The Panthers had won eight in a row and pulled themselves into the top 10 before Georgetown came to Pitt and took a 74-66 win on Jan. 20 as a one-point underdog. Then these guys went to Seton Hall and fell 64-61 as a 3 ½-point underdog, still getting the cash.
Pitt is going to feel great to get back home and you can expect Jermaine Dixon and Ashton Gibbs to light up the scoreboard tonight. St. John’s isn’t playing much defense lately, giving up 78 points a game over the last two, losses at UConn and at home to Villanova.
St. John’s manages just 62.4 points a game on the road and Pitt allows just 55.7 at home, and the opposition shoots just 36.9 percent from the floor when they visit Pitt.
The Panthers have won three straight in this series, including a 90-67 home win a season ago as 20-point favorites. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes and the Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine overall while St. John’s is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 on the road.
Lay the chalk and play Pitt!
5♦ PITT
Jay McNeil
I took a hit with my free play Wednesday as Wyoming won at home against Utah despite playing without its leading scorer. That loss dropped my record to 42-37-1 over the last 80 days, but I've got a college hoops play today that is much stronger and is going to result in a victory for me.
Pittsburgh has won 31 straight home games against unranked teams, and it is holding opponents to just 60.1 ppg this season.
The Panthers are 10-1 at the Petersen Events Center this season, and they are 4-1-2 ATS in both their last seven home games and their last seven as a home favorite.
St. John's has lost five straight games at Pitt by an average of 20.6 points. The Red Storm has lost five of its last seven overall, and are just 1-4 on the road this season.
St. John's doesn't have enough offensive firepower to threaten the Panthers on their home floor, and it is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 road games, including 1-8 ATS in its last nine as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Take PItt to roll by an easy dozen tonight.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Joel Tyson
Big Eastern Conference battle on Thursday between Boston and Orlando, and my money is on Orlando.
The Celtics are in a tricky spot, as they do have a Friday road game at Atlanta up next, and we all know how the Hawks have become a thorn in the side of the C's. Following that Friday game is a Sunday home date with the LA Lakers, so it is easy to see Boston not fully having their heads in this Thursday night battle against the Magic.
Orlando has covered 11 of their last 13 against the Atlantic Division, and they have covered 11 of their 20 home games this season.
Magic as the small home favorite my call.
1♦ ORLANDO