Chuck O'Brien
Take Purdue minus the points against Wisconsin in college hoops action as I shoot for my third straight free winner.
This is a big-time payback game for the Boilermakers, who won their first 14 games to start this season, then went to Wisconsin as a 1 1/2-point favorite on Jan. 9 and stumbled 73-66. Prior to that, Purdue had won four straight meetings with the Badgers and had cashed in seven straight in the rivalry. Last year, Wisconsin went to West Lafayette and got manhandled 65-52 as a six-point road underdog.
The Badgers come into this contest having won 10 of their last 12, but both losses came in their two toughest Big Ten road games (54-47 at Michigan State; 60-51 at Ohio State). Both the Buckeyes and Spartans are quality teams, but in my opinion Purdue is better -- and the Boilermakers' home court is extremely intimidating. In fact, Purdue is 9-1 on its own floor this year, outscoring opponents by 19 points per game (79-60). That includes impressive blowouts of Wake Forest (69-58), West Virginia (77-72) and Minnesota (79-60).
Even though this number looks a little inflated, it's really not -- not when you realize that the Badgers have failed to cover in five of thier last six games as an underdog and Purdue is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as a big home favorite (7 to 12 1/2 points). Also, not only have the Boilermakers covered in seven of the last eight overall meetings with Wisconsin, they're 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings at Purdue.
4♦ PURDUE
Jeff Benton
For Thursday's free play, I'll head to the college hardwood and take Xavier minus the points against Duquesne.
Pretty simple logic with this one. Xavier is a perfect 10-0 at home (7-2 ATS in lined games) while Duquesne is 1-6 on the road. And when you look at the series history between these Atlantic-10 rivals, you see that the home team has won the last four meetings in a row and the Musketeers have dismantled Duquesne the last three times these teams met at Xavier (final scores of 75-48 last year, 91-70 in 2006 and 73-52 in 2005).
The Dukes started A-10 play with five straight losses before finally breaking through on Saturday, but it was just a one-point home win over St. Bonaventure (and Duquesne came up short as a 4 1/2-point favorite). And over their last five conference games, the Dukes have surrendered 80, 78, 79, 75 and 69 points. Well, Xavlier averages 77.9 ppg on the season, inclduing 84.4 ppg (on nearly 50 percent shooting) at home! By comparison, Duquesne averages just 60.7 ppg on the road while giving up 70 ppg.
Throw in the fact that the Dukes have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall, while Xavier is on ATS runs of 16-6-2 at home, 5-1 as a favorite, 6-0-1 as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2 points and 10-2 on Thursday, and this one's a no-brainer. Look for the host Musketeers to roll by 20-plus points.
5♦ XAVIER
Scott Delaney
Seton Hall at South Florida
Off the win with Villanova last night, I am staying in the Big East and playing Seton Hall over South Florida.
The Pirates scored a 64-61 upset victory over No. 9 Pittsburgh on Sunday, and has a chance to to get to .500 in the Big East with a win over the Bulls tonight. Since a 0-3 conference start, the Pirates are 3-4 thanks to wins in three of their last four games.
Now Seton Hall takes on a team is have never lost to in seven games.
And even thought the Bulls have won two of their last three games, including Saturday's thrilling 109-105 overtime victory at Providence, I don't trust the talent level against a much-better Seton Hall team.
The Pirates defeated South Florida twice last season, including a 68-54 victory in the first round of the 2009 Big East Tournament, and I don't think the Bulls are any better this season.
2♦ SETON HALL
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks. I gave you the Bucks over the Mavs a few nights ago as a free play winner because I felt like the Mavs were looking ahead to this one. Phoenix and Dallas have given us some really good games in the past and I don't expect this one to be any different. Both teams can score in bunches, but my feeling is that the Mavs play better defense and that's going to be the difference in tonight's game. Rick Carlisle has been trying to get these guys to believe in his defensive philosophy since the beginning of last year and it looks like it's finally paying off... for the most part. The Mavs have held five of their last seven opponents to under 100 points and less than 45% shooting in all but one of those. Right now I think the Suns are in a talespin amidst all the trade rumors surrounding Amare Stoudemire and Grant Hill... it's almost as if the Suns management has said... "we're not a very good team despite our hot start and we're trying to build for the future." If that's the case, Dallas is the last team they want to face... a team that believes they have all the tools to get to the NBA Finals this year. I like the Mavs for the SU win tonight in the desert.
3♦ DALLAS
Dave Price
1 Unit on Stanford Cardinal +6
It's hard to resist Stanford catching 6 points here when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent off a road win are 50-21 ATS the last 5 seasons for a 70.4% success rate. In fact, the underdog has been catching 6.1 points on average in this situation and has only been losing by an average of 2.4 points. Take the points.
Jack Jones
California vs. Arizona State
Play: California +4
The California Golden Bears are on a little bit of a run here lately, winning their last two games and four of their last five overall. Arizona State on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss over their in-state rivals in Arizona 77-58.
The Sun Devils have relied on tough defense all year long, but will have trouble stopping the balanced offensive attack by the Bears tonight. This team has several different scorers, and the whole team does a solid job of hitting the boards, giving them second chances and limiting putbacks from the opposition. This is going to be a tough, hard fought game which means take the points.
Rocketman
Boston @ Orlando
Play: Orlando -3.5
Boston is 3-11 ATS this year after a non-conference game. Orlando is 9-2 SU and ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. Orlando is 54-31 ATS last 3 years when playing with revenge. Orlando is 16-4 SU at home this year where they average 104.7 points per game. Orlando is 22-8 SU at home vs Boston since 1996. Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. We'll recommend a small play on Orlando tonight!
Tony George
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando -3.5
Neither team in top form here BUT I like the Magic at home avenging a X Mas day home loss to the Celtics. With Carter and Nelson back and healthy, and contributing big time, the Magic are at full strength.
Boston is 0-5 ATS their last 5 games and I do not see them winning this game. Garnett is back and averging 15 ppg in his 2 games back, but I simply like the homecourt and Orlando tonight in revenge mode.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS 1ST OF 4 ROAD GAMES IN 5 DAYS FOR THE CELTICS. Keep an eye on the lines in games 3 and 4 on this road series. Always a go against if they or ANY NBA team is on a road swing like this, even in their conference, on games 3 and 4 if they are laying a decent number.
John Ryan
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins -164
3* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Senators in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-11 making 29.3 units since 2004. Play on home teams against the money line off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival and is a good team winning between 60 to 70 percent of their games and playing a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is a great team period and they do not hurt themselves with thoughtless mistakes. Ottawa has struggled big time against similar teams and are just 7-25 against the money line (-16.8 Units) in road games against mistake free teams allowing opponents <=4 power plays/game over the last 3 seasons. Ottawa is a solid mistake free team in their own right, but Pittsburgh knows how to defeat similar teams. Pittsburgh is a strong 13-2 against the money line (+10.4 Units) in home games against mistake free teams opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh.
Hollywood Sports
Pacific at Cal-Irvine
Play: Cal-Irvine
Pacific (12-6) leads the Big West Conference by 1/2 game with a 5-1 record after winning three home games in a row. But in their last road game, the Tigers lost at UC-Santa Barbara. And Pacific has covered only twice in their last eight road games which likely spells trouble against UC-Irvine. The Anteaters (9-11) are a solid 6-3 at home but come off an upset loss to UC-Riverside, 65-56, as a 4.5-point home favorite. Expect UC-Irvine to rebound at home and play well as they have covered 25 of their last 34 games coming off a loss. Furthermore, the Anteaters play up to their competition as they have covered in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And Pacific is certainly vulnerable in situations like this given their failure to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Look for this to be a very close game -- and one that the Anteaters may even steal away from the Tigers. Take the points with UC-Irvine.
John Martin
1 Unit on Pittsburgh -8
Losers of two straight for the first time in nearly two years, the 17th-ranked Panthers look to extend a 31-game home winning streak against unranked teams as they face St. John's in a Big East matchup Thursday night. The Panthers will have no problem getting up to face the Red Storm tonight after two straight heartbreaking losses. This has been a one-sided series over the last 3 seasons. In their last 3 meetings, Pitt is 3-0 winning by 23, 24, and 26 points, respectively. Another double-digit blowout can be expected tonight. Pitt is 6-0 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. They have had plenty of rest to recover from their recent setbacks and to get back to the drawing board. Pitt is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the Panthers as the favorite.