Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, January 7

Rob Vinciletti

Green Bay vs. Cleveland State
Play: Green Bay -3

Green Bay is an amazing 24-1 vs losing teams and that is what they will get here tonight against Cleveland St. They have also won 5 straight vs teams who average less than 65 points per game and are a solid 6-1 on the road when the total is 145 to 150. They have a better RPI Scale ranking and have won 6 of 7 vs any team ranked worse than 150. Cleveland St has lost 8 of 10 vs winning teams, 11 of 14 vs teams who score 77 or more points per game and have a dismal RPI Rank.

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Jim Feist

Boston vs, Chicago
Play: Under 203½

Boston is a young team that has the reputation of running and gunning, but the are also a very strong defensive squad, 5th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 8th in the league in points allowed. Boston is on a 5-1 run under the total, and the under is 15-7 when the Celtics last 22 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Chicago is even better, tops in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 12th in the league in points allowed. The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

DAVE COKIN

MILWAUKEE AT YOUNGSTOWN ST
PLAY: MILWAUKEE -5.5

Let’s talk letdowns here. First off, it’s a good idea not to knee-jerk to these obvious situations. Fact is, the oddsmakers know all about them as well, and as is the case with this game, they have adjusted for the expected action by inflating the number by a couple of points.

But that said, this really does look like tough spot for Youngstown State and the Penguins simply might not be good enough to overcome the scenario.

Youngstown State pulled off a huge upset on Monday night. The Penguins went into Oakland and stunned the heavily favored hosts, 100-98. The winning field goal was just before the horn, and was so close it was originally ruled no basket by the stripes. Replay indicated otherwise, and Youngstown State was able to walk off the court with one of the best wins that program has enjoyed in ages.

What made this shocker even more startling was that the Penguins got it done without one of their better players. Senior big man Bobby Hain missed the game with an injury, but thanks to some extraordinary outside shooting from beyond the arc, Youngstown State never faded away, and in fact it was the Penguins who dominated the final few minutes en route to the shocker.

Hain is still among the missing, so Youngstown State will again be without one of its key components. As this is not a good team to begin with, I would have to say the bounce factor is more of a likelihood, especially considering how the shots were falling for the Penguins on Monday night.

Milwaukee has to make sure they don’t take this one for granted. That might be what got Oakland in trouble to begin with in the upset. The Panthers have recently lost two home games they should have won, dropping overtime decisions to South Dakota and Wright State, which were sandwiched around a terrific road win at Minnesota.

I like the fact this is a road game for Milwaukee, as I can see them being less vulnerable to complacency playing away from home. There’s no question the Panthers are the stronger team. They own a solid 10-5 record, with three of those losses in overtime, and they also own a win at Wisconsin.

As long as Rob Jeter’s troops take this game seriously, they should get the win and obvious spot or not, Youngstown State is positioned to take a plunge tonight. It’s tough enough for good teams to stay sharp off an upset win. For a team that isn’t used to pulling off wins of this magnitude, at least by their standards, it’s probably even more difficult. No bargain here courtesy of the sharp guys who make the lines, but I’ll still bite and will play Milwaukee tonight.

Mike Lundin

Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Over 205½

The Philadelphia 76ers opened a six-game homestand with a 109-99 win against Minnesota Monday as Ish Smith scored 21 points in 9-of-16 shooting. He's averaged 18.0 points and 8.3 assists in his first three games with the 76ers giving them a massive boost on offense. The over is 4-0 in 76ers last four at home, and I expect to see a high-scoring affair when they host the Atlanta Hawks Thursday night. The over is 9-1 in the Hawks last 10 overall and 7-0 in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They're off a pair of high-scoring defeats to the Knicks, and they've looked anything but solid on defense of late surrendering an average of 111 points in their last three games.

Scott Spreitzer

Fairfield vs. Siena
Play: Fairfield +7

We played and won with the Stags on Monday when they whipped Dartmouth 97-85. As we said a few days ago, Fairfield has played a tough slate, yet still manages to knock down 80 points per game. They're solid from the field, making over 46% of their FGA, including 37% from behind the arc. The Stags have five players averaging between 19.5 ppg & 8.1 ppg and they have already played Northwestern and North Carolina on the road, so no problem getting their minds set for Siena. The Saints will play uptempo, which helps us here, and they have too many players making too many mistakes when handling the basketball. Five of their available top six players are upside down in assist-to-turnover margin, combining for 118 assists and 165 turnovers. Even their top "disher," Marquis Wright, had a low ratio with 41 turnovers and 55 assists, and Wright is out for at least six weeks after suffering a foot injury three games ago. Playing short-handed, at Fairfield's pace, and with a propensity to commit turnovers, we'll recommend a play on the Stags plus the points on Thursday night.

Big Al

Arizona vs. UCLA
Pick: UCLA

UCLA comes home after dropping its first two Pac-12 games of the season, and it's been installed as a home underdog vs. Arizona. When these two teams last met, Arizona bounced the Bruins out of the Pac-12 Tournament, in the semi-final round last March. But you know what they say about Paybacks! And UCLA falls into a 57-25 ATS system of mine which plays on home teams with Tourney Revenge, if they have a strong home court (UCLA's won 36 of its last 40 home games), and are not favored by more than 4 points. Look for the Bruins to pull the upset tonight.

Ken Thomson

North Dakota State -5

North Dakota State should control the tempo on their home court at Scheels Arena and wear down a solid Nebraska-Omaha team. The Bison are led by two solid double digit scorers in Paul Miller & AJ Jacobson who combine for 33 points per game. Should be close for awhile but NDSU will get on one of their runs at home and close out the Mavericks at home.

Jeff Saad

Florida at Ottawa
Play: Florida

First place Florida continues to impress and is 11-6-1 on the road. They are tops in the NHL in goals allowed. Jaromir Jagr scored his team-leading 14th goal, and Derek MacKenzie, Brandon Pirri and Corban Knight also scored as Florida beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1 Tuesday night in the Panthers' franchise-record 10th straight win. The Panthers are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the Eastern Conference. Ottawa is home but is being outscored on the season despite a winning overall record. Defense is still a problem, with Ottawa ranked No. 26 in goals allowed, No. 28 in penalty killing. The Senators are 17-35 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.

Mr. Vegas

Detroit at San Jose
Play: Under

Detroit is 3,000 miles from home leaning on its defense, 14th in goals allowed. They've won 2 in a row allowing 4 goals, off a 1-0 shutout at New Jersey, part of a 3-1-3 run under the total on the road. The Under is 18-6-2 when the Red Wings are playing on 2 days rest. San Jose has been off all week playing its fourth straight home game. The under is 5-1-4 in the last 10 meetings, including 3-0-2 under in San Jose.

ALEX SMART

Boston vs, Chicago
Play: Boston +5½

The Celtics are a team that has done very well for their betting backers when they are visitors in the recent past going 39-19 ATS in their last 58 road games. The Celtics played last night, losing a 99-94 decision to Motown, but one of their strongest suites is their conditioning which is among the best in the NBA, and that has translated into 37-14-1 ATS mark when on no rest. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls,, their hosts at the United Center tonight, while off a win , a 117-106 beat down of a defensively challenged Milwaukee side, are just 3-11 ATS following a cover.

Boston is 9-1 ATS L/10 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points dating back to last season.Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The road team has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings.

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SCOTT RICKENBACH

Jazz vs. Rockets
Play: Jazz +9

The Spurs simply shot lights out once again last night and the only good news about that for Utah was that the Jazz could rest their starters and simply look ahead to tonight's game at Houston. So, even though this is a back to back for the Jazz, they will have fresher legs than you would typically see in a match-up like this. That means Utah is indeed likely to challenge the Rockets in this one. Revenge is on the minds of the Utah players heading into this one as they lost to the Rockets at home by just a bucket on Monday. The value is there for the Jazz plus the big points. Utah is an incredible 10-3-2 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Even if the Rockets get the big lead here I see them slowing things down as they look ahead to a bigger home game (versus Indiana) coming up on Sunday. Houston is just 1-5 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season. Also, the Rockets are 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Jazz are a fantastic 33-15 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The road team bounces back tonight.

BRANDON LEE

Illinois vs. Michigan State
Play: Illinois +13½

This is just too many points for the Spartans to be laying without Denzel Valentine, as this would be about the right number if he was playing. Illinois has opened up 0-2 in Big Ten play, but were competitive in both, losing by 10 to Michigan and just 2 on the road to Ohio State. Fighting Illini also have close losses to other strong teams in non-conference play, losing by just 11 to Iowa State and 5 to Notre Dame. Illinois has also played the Spartans tough of late. They have won 2 of the last 3 and the lone loss came by just 7 points.

ASA

South Dakota St vs. IUPU-Indianapolis
Play: IUPU-Indianapolis +7

We’ve used IUPUI a number of times this year and they’ve done well for us. This is a team that is MUCH better than their record. They are just 5-12 but have played a BRUTAL schedule thus far. Of their 17 games, the Panthers have had only THREE games here at home. That’s it. They’ve won all 3 of those games. Their SOS rating is 17th in the nation having already played the likes of Butler, Memphis, Creighton, Marquette, NC State, and Purdue ALL on the road! That has prepared this veteran team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) for Summit League play. If we get them with a low number or as an underdog at home, IUPUI is definitely worth a strong look. South Dakota State has the much better record at 13-3 but they’ve also played the much easier schedule. Unlike IUPUI, the Jackrabbits have played one game vs a team in the top 100 and they lost that one. SDSU just struggled to beat Western Illinois at home over the weekend and they are just 2-3 their last 5 road tilts. IUPUI is a very dangerous team now that we’ve reached Summit League play and as a home dog here the value is definitely on the Panthers. An “upset” is brewing tonight in Indianapolis and we’re all over it.

MARC LAWRENCE

UTEP vs. Middle Tennessee
Play: UTEP +9

Edges - Miners: 2-0 SUATS regular season in this series. Blue Raiders: 1-2-1 ATS as favorites this season. With El Paso looking to avenge a loss suffered to MTSU in last year’s CUSA tourney and the Blue Raiders having a revenge affair up next versus Texas-San Antonio, we recommend a 1* play on UTEP.