JIMMY BOYD
Purdue -7½
Michigan (12-3) and Purdue (13-2) come in with similar records, which might have you wanting to take to the points with the Wolverines, especially after seeing the Boilermakers lost at home to Iowa 63-70 as a 9-point favorite in their last game. I think the smart play here is to back Purdue on their home floor in a huge bounce back spot against a Michigan team that's no as good as their record would indicate.
The thing to keep in mind with the Boilermakers loss to the Hawkeyes, is they actually had a 17-point lead at the half in that game. Purdue simply let their foot off the gas and it cost them a victory. They won't make the same mistake twice and Michigan hasn't exactly showed a lot against quality opponents. The Wolverines have lost by 16 to Xavier at home, 14 on a neutral site to Connecticut and 24 at SMU.
Making matters worse, Michigan could be without leading scorer Caris LeVert (17.6 ppg), who is questionable with a leg injury after missing their last game. Even if LeVert plays, I don't think it's going to be enough for the Wolverines to keep this game within the number listed here.
Purdue is 12-4 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a winning record at least 15 games into the season, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against teams who hit 41% or more of their 3-point attempts and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams who are shooting 48% or better from the field. Michigan on the other hand is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington -105 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
The Islanders are coming off a 6-5 victory over Dallas but so what. The Stars are cold and the Islanders needed all six goals to win and therein lies the problem with this host. The Isles have allowed 41, 43 and 43 shots against in their last three games. When you are allowing 40 shots on net per game, win expectation is low. Now the Islanders will play one of the best possession teams in the NHL and they’ll do so without Johnny Boychuk. That’s a big blow to the Islanders that the market does not recognize as such. Boychuk is the Islanders most stabilizing defensemen. Not only did Boychuk lead the Islanders other defensemen in shots on and directed towards the opposition’s net but his metrics reveal that he was by far the Islanders best defensemen. He’s third on the team in plus/minus too. Each of the Islanders last three victories were of the fortunate variety against Buffalo, Toronto and Dallas. The Islanders could easily be in a serious funk right now and it sure doesn’t help that whoever is in net, be it Jaroslav Halak or Thomas Greiss, will be the second best goaltender in this game.
After rare back-to-back losses, the Caps are coming off a 3-2 victory over the Bruins in Boston. The Bruins played their hearts out but could not overcome this group. Prior to those two defeats, the Caps had reeled off nine in a row. Washington is 21-1 when scoring first and they are undefeated when they take a lead into the third period. These two are intense rivals so there is no issue about a lack of motivation for the Caps (or Isles) and when that’s the case, we’re thrilled to get the superior team in better form with the superior goaltender at a price like this one. Johnny Boychuk’s injury is bigger than most know.
Winnipeg +155 over DALLAS
OT included. The Jets have their issues for sure, as this team is not nearly as consistent as they were a year ago. The Jets can look near flawless one game, as they did in San Jose on January 2, and then look like a completely different team the next time out, as they did in Anaheim the day after defeating San Jose. The Jets are coming off a misleading 4-1 victory over Nashville in a game they were outshot in 44-17. All-Star Pekka Rinne allowed three goals on 17 shots while Connor Hellebuyck stood on his head. After being dominated in two straight games by Anaheim and Nashville and being outshot by an incredible mark of 79-38, Winnipeg’s propensity this year is to come up with a big game when least expected. Aside from that, if Connor Hellebuyck is as good as he’s looked recently, give Winnipeg an even better chance of winning because the goaltender that plays better wins about 90% of games.
Dallas returns home from a three-game trip to New Jersey, New York and Brooklyn and they’ll face some adversity for the first time. You see, the Stars went 0-3 in those games and allowed 15 goals against. In New York on Tuesday, Coach Lindy Ruff thought it would be a good idea to bench Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in the third period against the Rangers for the final 11 minutes for playing as he put it “stupid hockey”. That might be the stupidest coaching decision in a very long time. Benn and Seguin have made Ruff look a lot better than he is for 40 games this season. Instead of talking to them in a calm and cool matter, Ruff, the great communicator, benches them and in turn humiliates them. It is one thing to bench a fourth line winger or a young first or second year player but it’s quite another to bench your two best and most impactful players that work their asses off every game. We’ll see how it plays out and whether or not it makes a difference but Ruff is old school and these old school recycled coaches have no idea how to handle today’s players. Everything was peaches and cream before because the Stars were winning but as soon as things go a little downhill, Ruff throws his players under the bus. What we know for sure is that Dallas is very capable of scoring a bunch of goals and defeating any team but they are also a weak defensive team with weak goaltending and after Ruff crossed the line, the Stars might be even more vulnerable.
Toronto +175 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. What a tough scheduling spot for the Kings. It’s been a month a day since the Kings played consecutive home games and so this will be their 14th straight game in which they have to travel to their next destination. It all started on December 6 after a home game against Tampa Bay. From there, the Kings would travel to Columbus for the first game of six straight on the road. They returned home for one game against San Jose before heading out for another four games on the road that started in Arizona and ended in Calgary. Los Angeles would subsequently come back home for one game against Philadelphia before flying to Colorado to play the Avs on January 4. This is the game after Colorado and it’s also their fourth straight game in a different time zone. We can’t even imagine how exhausted these players must be feeling and no matter how hard they dig down for this one, it’s not going to be easy against the Maple Leafs.
If you watched the Maple Leafs last night you had to be taken aback by their flawless performance. Everything the Ducks tried to do or thought they could do was countered by something better by the Leafs. What Mike Babcock has done with this team is nothing short of brilliant. He has taken a group of lost players and a directionless team and has turned them into a serious threat. The Maple Leafs have earned at least one point in 10 of their last 12 games by going 8-2-2 over that span. During that stretch, Toronto has defeated the Blues twice while outscoring St. Louis by a combined 8-2. They also have a 4-0 victory over Anaheim (last night) and a 5-0 victory over these same Kings. To recap, against St. Louis twice, Anaheim and Los Angeles, Toronto has outscored that quartet, 17-2. Last year at this time, the Maple Leafs were at -39 during 5-on-5 play and this year they are +5, a difference of 44 goals in half a season. Babcock has put together four lines that all work outstanding together and now Jake Gardiner, Mike Reilly and even Dion Phaneuf are all playing at a high level on defense. The Maple Leafs bubble is not going to be burst. Toronto is thriving and playing like they know they’re going to win. They can’t wait to get back on the ice and they are not intimidating by anyone. Great situation, great price and great chance to win has us backing this undervalued group.
Florida -105 over OTTAWA
When a goaltender is as hot as Roberto Luongo is and when the team he is facing is very likely going to get badly outshot or outplayed, we’ll take out chances in a virtual pick-em game. Ottawa ranks dead last in the NHL in shots allowed per game. The last time the Sens faced the Panthers, Ottawa was outshot, 40-16. It’s a rare game when the Sens don’t allow 35 shots on net and/or 20 high quality scoring chances and we don’t have to tell you how hot the Panthers are right now. If the Panthers can score three goals here, a distinct possibility indeed, their win expectation is off the charts.
The Panthers own a 16-0-1 record when scoring at least three goals and they have scored 3 goals or more in five of their last seven games against much stronger defenses than the one they’ll face here. Overlooked in the Panthers 10-game winning streak is the work of Corbin Knight. Knight has recorded six points in 10 games and since his recall, the Panthers have gone 10-0-0. Coincidence? Probably so but it just adds to the Panthers scoring depth and to their ability to score three or more. Florida also ranks first in the NHL for least goals allowed in the first period (18) and ranks second in the NHL for least goals allowed this season with 85. Florida hasn’t even played that well over their past three games, as they were outshot in all of them and out-chanced as well. Being on the road for the second game after six at home figures to serve the Panthers well and we trust them to play their strongest game since the X-Mas break in this big hockey market.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Atlanta
This has all the makings of a bounce back spot for the Hawks after they were surprisingly swept in a home & home w/ the Knicks. Philadelphia, still only 4-33 SU for the year, is actually off a win. But they are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in that situation, though this is the 1st time they've been at home. Still, lay the points.
Atlanta has been poor on the defensive end the L3 games. But defense didn't matter when they took the court last month against the Sixers as they dropped 127 points on them, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. Philadelphia is allowing 105.7 PPG at home this year, but honestly it's been their offense that has really lagged all year. Last in offensive efficiency, they average only 92.9 PPG.
Considering the Sixers scored 109 points in their last game, an upset win here at home over Minnesota, I would expect them to follow up w/ a poor effort on the offensive end here tonight. That's because only one time this season have they scored 100+ pts in B2B games! There have been only five previous instances all year where they scored 105+ and all five times they followed that up by scoring 97 or fewer. This should turn into a rout for the road team.
Ian Cameron
Florida vs. Ottawa
Play: Florida -110
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em and right now the Florida Panthers are a team that can’t be beaten. The red hot Panthers head to Ottawa looking for their 11th consecutive win which has already been established as a franchise record winning streak. Three Florida players were named to the All-Star ame yesterday: Jaromir Jagr at the ripe age of 43, goaltender Roberto Luongo and 19-year-old defenseman Aaron Ekblad. I can’t think of three bigger reasons why Florida has surged to this 10-game winning streak and risen to the top of the Atlantic Division. Jagr has played like he is 20 years younger than he actually is registering 14 goals and 29 points in 37 game. Ekblad is a dominant defenseman already at his age at both ends of the ice and has a team leading +16 rating in plus/minus. Luongo has turned back the clock in between the pipes with one of his best seasons in recent memory. He enters tonight with sparkling numbers including a 2.06 GAA and .930 save percentage. Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov have also been integral components to Florida’s recent success playing alongside Jagr on their top line as they are 2nd and 3rd respectively in scoring on the team. They’ve also received solid offensive contributions from Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck and Brandon Pirri. The Panthers have a solid chance to extend their incredible run tonight against an Ottawa team that has not played consistent hockey for the majority of the season. The Senators had lost three straight games before snapping the skid with a comeback win in OT in St. Louis on Monday night. Ottawa is just 4-6 in its last 10 games overall. These two teams split the first two meetings but Florida had the territorial edge in both games as they outshot Ottawa by a combined margin of 67-39 combined. Florida has more road wins this season (11) than Ottawa has at home (10) and with as well as the Panthers are playing right now, this appears to be a reasonable price to step in and support the streaking squad.
Ken Thomson
Ark.-Little Rock -5.5
Line keeps dropping against a team that has road wins at San Diego State, Tulsa, De Paul & Idaho...all tough roads venues. UL-Lafayette is winless on the road including losing at UL-Monroe by 11 and at Pepperdine by 20 just two games ago. Marcus Johnson Jr. is the real deal fro the Trojans and should lead UALR to a win by 8 or more. It's Conference play so teams are focused more and I expect ULL to be in it for awhile before the Trojans pull away. Little Rock is battle tested winning most of their games away from home as this is just their 4th home game of the season. Sitting at ( 12-1 ) this team and Texas Arlington have been the two biggest surprises thus far from the smaller Conferences along with Hawaii but the Rainbow Warriors have played most of their games at home.
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Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: NC Wilmington at TOWSON (+2')
The STORYLINE in this game today - Towson's defense against Wilmington's offense. That is the storyline for tonight's Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) men's basketball matchup. And my money is on the home underdog, as I think Towson is in the right spot to steal this game outright.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is revenge. Towson, as a matter of fact, comes in on triple-revenge. While Towson comes into this contest after dropping a home decision to CAA preseason favorite Hofstra last Saturday, the lingering issue is the three straight setbacks to Wilmington.
BOTTOM LINE is - Walter Foster is the main man to watch tonight. He has three double-doubles this season. Towson is strong on the offensive boards, so Foster could have his way in the paint in this crucial showdown. There's also William Adala Moto to consider, as he's scored in double figures in 10 straight games.
4* TOWSON
Chris Jordan
My free play comes out of Westwood, where I think the home underdog UCLA Bruins will catch the Arizona Wildcats at the right time and win this game outright.
Arizona and UCLA are about as balanced and even as we could ask. And we should be in store for a great Pac 12 clash on television. But the Bruins shouldn't be catching points at home, sorry.
Since the 2012-13 season, the Bruins have won four of the seven meetings, and if you add up all the points scored, the point differential favors UCLA by two points. Now you throw the Wildcats into the fire for their first conference road game, and UCLA is salivating.
The opportunity is knocking, excuse the cliche.
The Bruins have five players averaging double figures, and tonight they'll be pressed to produce more from further down the roster. But let's not forget we've seen this team at its best, when it knocked off then-No. 1 Kentucky last month.
UCLA - which thrives on Pac 12 Thursdays, having covered 36 of 53 - has covered four of the last five meetings at home, and six of its last seven against Arizona. The underdog is also on an 8-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
I'm taking UCLA here, as Steve Alford's boys aim for the outright win.
2* UCLA
Scott Delaney
Montana State is finally back home, and it's a long time coming. The Bobcats' month-long, six-game road stretch ends this evening, and they face the right team to get back on the winning track, as I like them against Sacramento State.
I know Sac State played an extensive non-conference schedule, and a lot of times that can be a good thing to prepare for league play. But something tells me it wasn't as beneficial as the Hornets would have hoped. They dropped their league opener at Portland State last weekend and now head to face hungry Montana State, which has played just two home games this season, the fewest in the Big Sky Conference.
The Bobcats have been waiting for this homestand, and won't slip and let this opportunity get away from them. Look for a lot of offense, since the Cats rank 2nd in the Big Sky (33rd nationally) in 3-point field goals (9.1 per game), 5th in the Big Sky (70th in DI) in 3-point percentage (.371).
Lay the home chalk.
2* MONTANA STATE
Brad Wilton
My Thursday comp play is the 76ers as the home underdog against the Hawks.
Never thought I would actually side with Philly anytime soon, but the Sixers are actually playing off a straight up win, and they have split their last 6 games straight up!
Atlanta is scuffling again, losing both games of a home-and-home with New York over their last pair of games, and they are just 3-3 against the spread the last 6 times they have faced Philadelphia.
Hawks head back home for a Saturday game against the Bulls next, and something tells me Atlanta (who did crush Philly, 127-106 on 12/16) will ease off the gas pedal tonight and allow the "confident" Sixers to sneak inside of this roomy impost.
Go with Philly.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Rockets to cover over the Jazz.
On the surface, this sure looks like a lot of points to ask the under .500 Rockets to cover, but let's remember that on Monday, Houston did win 93-91 as the small underdog at Utah, and they have now won 8 of the previous 10 series meetings between the teams.
In that span, the Rockets have won all 4 home meetings against the Jazz, and they have covered in each of the last 3 at the Toyota Center.
The Jazz were just blasted by 25-points last night in San Antonio, and while the Rockets aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, they at least have had the extra day of rest in between meetings with Utah.
Bad scheduling spot for Utah.
Lay it with Houston.
1* HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Utah Jazz plus the points at the Houston Rockets. At the time of this writing, the Jazz are catching nine points in Vegas and offshore.
Call it more of a hunch than anything else here. I believe the Jazz are better than Houston in some areas and that will be enough to cover this impost.
While Rodney Hood did cool off a bit in his last game, he's still been a big reason why the Jazz are playing a little better lately. Also, center Jeff Withey has done a serviceable job filling in for the injured Derrick Favors, averaging 10 points and 8.5 rebounds in his absence.
We all know the Rockets have one of the best scorers in the league in James Harden, but even he has been inconsistent at times this year and that's why the Rockets are two games under .500 coming into tonight.
There's inconsistencies all over the floor for Houston and that's why it's really hard to lay nine points with them against anyone.
While they're more than capable of covering that number, it just seems too steep of a price tonight.
Take Utah as your free play of the day.
2* UTAH
DAVE PRICE
Philadelphia 76ers +9.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have no longer been pushovers over the past couple weeks. They come in playing their best ball of the season as they've gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes a 111-104 road win at Phoenix as 11.5-pint dogs, a 110-105 win at Sacramento as 10.5-point dogs, and a 109-99 home win over Minnesota as 6-point dogs. The oddsmakers are asking the Atlanta Hawks to win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread, and I don't find it very likely that they do. The Hawks have lost three of their last four games coming in. They are just 9-8 on the road this season and getting outscored by 1.5 points per game away from home. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Harry Bondi
UCLA (+3) over Arizona
UCLA comes into this game desperate for a win after falling to 0-2 in the Pac-12 conference. Despite their recent poor play, the Bruins have shown they can play with the big boys and already have wins this season against Kentucky and Gonzaga. UCLA has also owned Arizona over the last several years covering 9 of their last 11 meetings. Again tonight!
Wunderdog
Arizona State @ USC
Pick: Arizona St +6.5
Arizona State had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 94-82 loss to Arizona on Sunday as the Wildcats shot a blistering 55.6 percent from the field, making 7-of-12 three-points attempts in the process. Tra Holder led the Sun Devils with 24 points followed by Obinna Oleka with 17 points. USC lost at Washington 87-85 on Sunday for its first loss in eight games. Bennie Boatwright, Julian Jacobs and Jordan McLaughlin each scored 15 points for the Trojans. Arizona State is 7-0 ATS after a 10 point-plus home loss and 5-1 ATS after an ATS loss. In addition, ASU is 8-2 ATS when following a straight-up defeat. Arizona State has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings between these universities. The Sun Devils already own a road win at UNLV and went to overtime against Marquette on a neutral floor. Grab the points and play Arizona State.