Steve Janus
Oregon -6½
Early money on California has driven this line from Oregon -9 to -6.5 and I think now is the time to jump on the Ducks in a huge bounce-back spot at home. Oregon suffered their first loss of the season at Colorado in their last game, but those that have watch the Buffaloes know there's nothing to be ashamed about that loss. The Ducks are a perfect 9-0 at home this season with their average win coming by close to 19 ppg. The Golden Bears come in off a surprising upset win at Stanford, but are still just 2-4 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 6 ppg.
Not only will Oregon be motivated from it's first defeat, but they will be playing with some serious revenge. The Ducks have surprisingly lost 11 straight to the Golden Bears, but this Cal team isn't as strong as it was last year with Allen Crabbe and they barely scraped by with wins in both games vs Oregon. Cal won 58-54 at home and 48-46 on the road. Something to keep in mind is the Ducks had the lead at the half in each of those games.
The Golden Bears are a mere 6-14-1 ATS in their last 20 following a ATS win last time out and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a home winning pct greater than 60%. Oregon on the other hand is 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games and 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team with a winning record.