Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 10,2010

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

When the Angels conclude their three game series with the Athletics in Oakland Thursday afternoon they will send former All-Star Erwin Santana to the mound in quest of his sixth straight team start victory. Not only is Santana in great KW form with four walks and 18 strikeouts in his last three starts, he's also 12-4 in his career team starts against the A's. It ain't broke and we're not fixing it. Back the Halos here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the L.A. Angels.

MTi Sports

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Mariners are 0-10 as a dog in the last game of a road series, 0-8 as a dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead and 0-8 as a road dog after a 5+ run loss. The Rangers are 6-0 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and 5-0 when Tommy Hunter starts as a favorite when they won his last start. Finally, the M's are 0-9 when Ryan Rowland Smith starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date. Consider the Rangers.

Matt Fargo

LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: LAA Angels

The Angeles easily defeated Oakland last night behind a complete game from Joe Saunders. We will go back to the well and grab Los Angeles against today and even though it is a slight favorite, there is a lot of value on the road team. The Angels continue to keep pace in the American League West. They are 12-3 over their last 15 games including an 8-2 record during this current roadtrip. Back on May 24th, Los Angeles was 6.5 games behind Texas in the American League West and on May 12th it was 8.5 games back but heading into today, it is just a half-game back with a chance to land into first place once again. Oakland is just 3-6 over its last nine games as the offense has been extremely inconsistent following another poor performance last night. The A’s have been a much better team at home than on the road but that should not affect the Angels at all as they have won seven of the last eight meetings in Oakland. Ervin Santana has turned his season around after a rough first two starts. After posting a 6.94 ERA through those first two games, he has tossed eight quality starts over his last 10 outings while posting a solid 2.69 ERA over this stretch. His ERA is about a run and a half better on the road than at home this season and facing the A’s is always a treat. In 16 career starts against Oakland he is 11-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. This includes a perfect 5-0 record with a 1.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts in Oakland. He goes up against Trevor Cahill who is pitching very well also and that is keeping this line down. He has tossed five straight quality starts including one against the Angels but that resulted in a 4-0 loss. He has a 2.04 ERA in three home starts but he does have a lofty 1.36 WHIP in those games and that can be a problem against the resurgent Angels offense that has scored seven runs or more in seven of their last 11 games, averaging 6.4 rpg over that span. The Angels are 13-4 in their last 17 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the A’s are 1-4 in their last five games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Los Angeles Angels

Cajun Sports

Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies look to get a split in their four-game set against the Astros after losing on Wednesday 6 to 2 giving the Astros a 2-1 advantage leading into Thursday’s final game. Houston is 6-18 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season and 13-32 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Colorado is 11-1 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. We will back the host as the Rockies get the split versus the visiting Astros.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 Houston Astros 2

Rob Vinciletti

Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under: 10

This game fits a nice under system tonight. What we want to do is play the under when the posted total is 10 or higher for certain home favorites off a home favorite win of 5 or more runs as a home favorite of 200 or higher vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs that scored 4 or less runs. This somewhat complicated system has done well through the years. Seattle is hitting just .230 over the past 7 games while scoring just 2.5 runs per game. They only hit .232 in Divisional play and have played under in 13 of 18 games when on the road with a total of 10 or higher. Look for this game to go under the total tonight.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Marlins/Phillies game was postponed yesterday; because there will be no pitching change, I still believe the Phillies offer the best value in this situation:

Josh Johnson gets the nod for the visitors; Johnson has pitched well this year, not many negative things you can say about him; he's 3-1 in his last five starts with the lone loss coming in the Halladay perfect game.

He's 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA in his career against Philadelphia.

Keep in mind though that Florida is 1-5 its last six overall; 1-7 its last eight on the road; 15-22 (-9.2 units) vs. right-handed starters.

In the other dugout: Roy Halladay goes for the home side; Halladay allowed two runs on 10 hits in seven innings to win against the Padres on Friday night; he had one walk and seven K's; he's 803 on the year with a tiny 2.03 ERA.

He has allowed just two runs in 17 innings of work against the Marlins.

And Philadelphia is 25-17 (+3.7 units) against right-handed starters.

Bottom line: Two awesome starters here, but I give the advantage to the home side.

Off Tuesday's disheartening loss, and yesterday's postponement, I expect Florida to have a letdown in this spot; consider a second look at Philadelphia.

Steve Merril

Cubs @ Brewers
PICK: Over 8.5

The Brewers and Cubs wrap up their series on Thursday afternoon. Dave Bush makes the start for Milwaukee. He's 1-5 with a 4.97 ERA in 15 appearances. The righty has given up 12 runs and 17 hits in his last 11.3 innings pitched. Bush has made two starts against the Cubs this year giving up 11 runs and 17 hits in 9.7 innings of work. Overall, Bush is 2-9 with a 5.60 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez (10-36), Alfonso Soriano (10-34), Ryan Theriot (11-31), Kosuke Fukudome (11-22), Geovany Soto (3-10), Jeff Baker (2-4), and Tyler Colvin (3-3) all hit Bush the best. When Bush struggles, he'll give way to a bullpen that is 9-13 with a 6.12 ERA and 10 blown saves.

Chicago’s Ryan Dempster is very familiar with the Brewers in his career. He is 13-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 11 Overs in 19 career starts against Milwaukee. He's faced the Brew Crew twice this year giving up six runs and 14 hits in 14 innings of work. Prince Fielder (9-28), Jim Edmonds (8-27), Craig Counsell (7-26), Rickie Weeks (8-24), Casey McGehee (4-12), Carlos Gomez (2-5), and Joe Inglett have the most success against Dempster. The Cubs bullpen owns a 5.40 ERA on the road so they’ve struggled as well. The Brewers have gone Over in 15 of their 26 home games this season, and another high-scoring game is expected here so we’ll recommend a play on the Over this afternoon.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8½

The Pirates are a terrible offensive team, dead last in the NL in runs scored. That explains an 11-6-1 under the total. Washington is a very good pitcher's park and the offense is 11th in the NL in runs scored. A pair of pitchers are on the mound who throw strikes. Zack Duke of the Pirates has walked 2 in his last three starts (18 innings) with 14 Ks, while Livan Hernandez of the Nationals has a 2.22 ERA with his last 6 starts going under the total. Play the Pirates/Nationals Under the total.

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -206

After getting clobbered by the Indians 11-0 last night I expect Boston to bounce back with a win here. The Red Sox have their most effective pitcher on the mound tonight as Jon Lester will try to cool off the Tribe's hot bats. Lester is 7-2 this season with an ERA of just 2.73, but over his last three starts Lester is a perfect 3-0 with a microscopic ERA of just 0.47. Lester has done well against Cleveland in the past as he is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.89 in six career starts and I expect an outstanding effort from him today. Mitch Talbot takes the hill for Cleveland today and he has been pretty solid this season posting a 7-4 record with an ERA of 3.54 this season. This is Talbot's first start against Boston, but the Red Sox have hit him pretty hard in the few innings of relief that Talbot has throw against them and I expect their bats to wake up today after being shutout by Masterson last night. Boston has been a great play as a heavy chalk with Lester on the mound. The Red Sox are 16-0 in Lester's last sixteen starts as a favorite of -$200 or more and I expect that to continue tonight. Play on Boston.

Brad Diamond Sports

Play Florida over Philadelphia

Can't help supporting the Marlins as the Phillies continue to look "injured" down on South Broad Street. Yes, we know the Doc is up, but we still can't help noting with Jimmy Rollins in the lineup, this unit can't win long-term. Add in some dubious defense by a MVP stalwart such as Ryan Howard and the worst hitting season by Chase Utley Philadelphia's Mr. Consistent, and you can easily forecast a frustrating season for the former World Series entrant. Halladay beat Johnson 1-0 in his perfect night. Look for the Marlins to reverse form tonight.

JEFF BENTON

Wednesday’s free play on the Padres-Mets UNDER the total was postponed due to rain. So I’m still 30 games over .500 with my free plays, as I’m on an 85-55-2 roll with selections that I’m giving away! For Thursday, we’ll stick with the Padres-Mets game UNDER the total in Game 1 of their doubleheader.

This is the same scheduled pitching matchup as yesterday, with San Diego right-hander Mat Latos (3.26 ERA) facing New York’s Johan Santana (2.76 ERA). Latos has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 outings, including the last seven in a row. Over his last four road starts, Latos has surrendered just four earned runs, 11 hits and six walks in 28 innings (1.29 ERA).

Meanwhile, Santana has been as dominant as ever over the past three weeks, giving up just four runs (three earned) in his last five trips to the mound covering 44 1/3 innings – that equates to a 0.81 ERA! Over his last two starts – both on the road – Santana squandered just eight hits and seven walks in 15 scoreless innings, but got zero offensive support (the Mets lost 2-0 in Milwaukee and 5-1 in San Diego on a walk-off, 11th-inning grand slam).

Since joining the Mets in 2008, Santana has faced the Padres four times and allowed just four runs in 28 innings (1.29 ERA), and the final scores in those four games were 2-1, 5-3, 5-1 and 5-1. Throw in two starts vs. the Padres when Santana was with Minnesota, and the under is 4-1-1 when he takes on San Diego. Meanwhile, Latos’ lone start against New York came last August in San Diego, and he allowed just one run on four hits in six innings of a 3-1 victory (easily staying under the total).

The under is 5-2 Latos’ last seven outings (with all five “unders” featuring seven runs or fewer), including 3-1 in his last four on the road. And the under is 3-0-1 in Santana’s last four trips to the hill. Additionally, the Padres are on “under” runs of 7-2-1 overall, 11-4-1 on the road, 34-15-4 as an underdog, while the Mets are on low-scoring streaks of 4-1-1 overall and 6-1 at home. Finally, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these squads.

4♦ Padres-Mets UNDER

BRETT ATKINS

I'm delivering a FREE winner tonight as I go with the Rays to finish off this sweep of the Blue Jays.

This series has been a blowout so far, through two games, the Rays have outscored the Blue Jays 19-1, winning 10-1 on Wednesday and 9-0 on Tuesday.

Wade Davis is on the mound for Tampa, going up against left-hander Brett Cecil for the Blue Jays. Cecil faced Tampa back on April 23 and allowed four runs on six hits in 6.2 innings. Over his last two starts against the Rays, he’s allowed 10 runs in 10 innings. In this rivalry, the Rays have dominate lately, winning 22 of the last 27 matchups in Tampa and winning 38 of the last 55 overall.

The Rays are on streaks of 7-1 at home against southpaws, 27-10 against A.L. East teams and 111-52 as a home favorite. Pay the price to go with the Rays tonight. Play Tampa.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

Chuck O'Brien

Thursday’s complimentary selection comes from A.L. West action, as I’ll take the Rangers on the run line (-1½ runs) against Seattle.

Since getting handcuffed by Cliff Lee in the opening game of this four-game series on Monday (4-2 loss), the Rangers have exploded for 19 runs the last two nights, winning 7-1 and 12-2. Texas is 7-2 against the Mariners this season, and now the smoldering Rangers offense (62 runs last nine games) gets to feast on lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith, who is 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA as a starter and reliever.

That only begins to tell the story of Rowland-Smith’s woes, though. He’s 0-4 with a 10.20 ERA in his last four starts, with losses of 8-0, 5-2, 8-4 and 11-2. He’s also 0-2 with an 8.72 ERA on the road and 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in night games. Seattle is 2-7 in Rowland-Smith’s nine starts, 1-4 when he starts on the road and 1-5 when he starts at night. In a word, Rowland-Smith has been a disaster.

On the other hand, gotta love what Tommy Hunter did in his first big-league start of 2010 on Saturday, as he tossed a complete-game five-hitter against the first-place Rays, winning 6-1. It was just the second complete game in Hunter’s brief career. The first? It came at home against these Mariners on Sept. 13 last year, as he gave up just two runs (one earned) on six hits in a 7-2 rout. That was one of Hunter’s four starts against Seattle last year, with Hunter giving up just seven earned runs in 24 1/3 innings (2.59 ERA).

The Mariners are in slumps of 8-22 on the road, 17-48 as a road underdog and 7-20 against A.L. West rivals, while Texas has won 15 of 20 at home, six of seven against the A.L. West, four of five versus left-handed starters and four straight when Hunter goes as a home favorite. Finally, in addition to taking seven of nine against Seattle this season – all seven wins by multiple runs – the Rangers are 47-21 in last 68 meetings in Texas.

5♦ TEXAS -1½

Bobby Maxwell

My FREE play run sits at 107-89-3 and tonight I'm delivering a comp winner on the Rays as they finish off a sweep of the Blue Jays in Tampa.

The first two games of this series have been all Rays as Tampa Bay has outscored Toronto 19-1, including the 10-1 blowout win Wednesday after the 9-0 drubbing on Tuesday. Tonight will be more of the same as the Rays make it a sweep.

Tampa has dominated the Blue Jays of late, winning 22 of the last 27 in Tampa and winning 38 of the last 55 overall against Toronto. The Jays are just 2-7 in their last nine roadies, while the Rays are on streaks of 7-1 at home against lefties, 27-10 against A.L. East teams, 111-52 as a home favorite and 36-17 overall.

Wade Davis is on the hill for the Rays and while he got shelled in his last outing, allowing eight runs in 3.1 innings in Texas in a 9-6 loss, he’s been solid at home and will get the offensive support to win this one.

Lefty Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA) is on the mound for Toronto, and while he’s been solid lately, he got hit pretty hard against the Rays on April 23 when he gave up four runs on six hits in 6.2 innings of work. Over his last two starts against Tampa, he’s given up 10 runs in 10 innings.

Tampa has won five of its last seven overall and they’ve won six of the last seven against the Blue Jays. I’ll pay the price to play the Rays tonight. Go with Tampa!

2♦ TAMPA BAY