Tony George
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Florida is in a funk and this game was cancelled yesterday but the same pitchers apply here. The Marlins have dropped 7 out of 8 road games and the Phillies have a solid starter on the hill tonight. No question with Philly at home they are the better team at a cheap number. Chalky yes, did I mention Roy Halladay is starting for the home team? Enough Said. Play them for a half unit.
John Ryan
G2 San Diego Padres vs. G2 New York Mets
Play: San Diego Padres
5* graded play on the Padres in game 2 of their make-up double header with the Mets. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 166-95 making 60 units since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 below average NL hitting team batting <=.255 and with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season facing a team with a very good bullpen posting an ERA <=3.33. SD is a solid 12-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season; 18-9 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 42-25 (+28.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. the Padres bullpen is very strong posting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.036 WHIP in the season. Over the past 7 games they have posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.885 WHIP. Mets are not hitting against RH starters batting just 247 with only 76 extra base hits and 30 home runs in 39 games. Bullpen is struggling as well posting a 9.16 ERA and a 2.142 WHIP over the past 7 games. Jon Niese has struggled with control issues and has posted a 6.08 ERA and 1.725 WHIP over his last 3 starts. His season WHIP is 1.676 reflecting too many free passes. Look at this way, Niese allows a 330 BA on his FB and he throws it 86% of the time when behind in the count. His change is poor and throws it only to RH batters. RH batters are hitting 500 on the change. Seems that whatever pitch he throws tonight it is going to get hit hard. Take the Padres.
Craig Trapp
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
TB before this series had looked like they were cooling off but not so as they have swept the first two games winning 19-1 overall in the two games. Today Davis takes to the mound for TB looking to keep up the great pitching start of this series. Bad news for the Rays is Davis has not made it out of 4th inning in two of last three starts. Also going to TOR today is their young ace Cecil. Lately he has been great only allowing five runs in 29 2/3 innings over his last four starts, winning all of them while holding opponents to a .170 average. TOR before this series was near the top of the league in all the power #'s so don't expect them to be held down three games in a row. Too much value for the better pitcher and a team looking to break out of a slump.
SEAN MURPHY
Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
This was my analysis of Wednesday's postponed game between the Marlins and Phillies, which will be made up on Thursday.
The fundamentals of the game seem lost on the Marlins, and that's a big reason why they blow so many leads, just as they did in last night's series opener.
Florida has now lost four games in a row and seven of its last eight away form home. Even with their ace, Josh Johnson, getting the call on Wednesday, they're going to be hard pressed to snap their losing streak against Roy Halladay and the Phillies.
Josh Johnson is off to a 6-2 start to the season, posting a 2.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Of course, those numbers are buoyed by his performances at home. Keep in mind, Sun Life Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park. Citizens Bank Field is anything but.
Away from home, Johnson is just 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The Marlins have dropped three of his four road outings this season. While Johnson dominated the Phillies early in his career, that hasn't been the case since the start of last season. The Marlins are just 1-4 in his last five outings against Philadelphia.
Johnson will be making his third start in 12 days on Wednesday. That's usually not much of a concern at all, but he's been overworked in his last two outings, throwing 121 and 115 pitches.
The Phillies will hand the ball to their own ace, Roy Halladay. He wasn't exactly at his best in his first start following that perfect game against the Marlins back on May 29th, allowing 10 hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win over the Padres last Friday. He did an excellent job of limiting the damage however, giving up just two earned runs.
This will be the Marlins third look at Halladay this season, and they haven't had much success to this point. He has pitched 17 innings against the Marlins, giving up just eight hits and two earned runs while striking out 15 and not walking a single batter.
Unlike Johnson, Halladay doesn't have the benefit of pitching the majority of his games in a spacious ballpark. Yet, he's still made the most of his appearances at the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Field, going 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in six starts.
The Phillies have certainly been struggling offensively, but a performance like last night's can go a long way toward busting out of their slump. They scored 10 runs on 13 hits and also drew six walks in a 10-8 victory. My biggest concern with the Phillies right now is their bullpen, but that's not as much of an issue when you've got a guy like Halladay on the mound. Take Philadelphia.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -1.5 -120
Following yesterday's embarrassing 11-0 loss, look for the Red Sox to come right back with a convincing win of their own tonight. Lester has been lights out this year with a 7-2 record and a 2.73 ERA. And over his last 3 starts he's really turned up the heat, going 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.47. Plus, Lester is a perfect 3-0 (6-0 on the money line) in his career against Cleveland. I don't expect him to give up much of anything tonight. We also can't ignore the fact that plays against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CLEVELAND) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against an opponent with a hot starting pitcher - WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts, are 59-4 the last 5 seasons and winning by 3.2 runs on average. Bet the Red Sox on the run line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays +128
The Rays have dominated the first two games of this series, but I expect the tables to turn tonight as the Jays put the better starter on the hill. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Cecil's last 5 starts and 7-1 in Cecil's last 8 road starts. They are also an impressive are 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Wade Davis is struggling for Tampa Bay. His ERA is a lofty 5.03 on the season and it is up to 10.80 over his last 3 starts. Look for Toronto's bats to come alive against the struggling Davis while Cecil takes care of the rest.
Info Plays
3* on Oakland A's +100
Reasons the A's win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (OAKLAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%). This is a 39-9 ML System hitting 81.2% over the last 5 seasons gaining +31.4 units.
2.) Trevor Cahill. The lefty is 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.196 WHIP this season, including 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in home starts. The A's are 3-1 in Cahill's 4 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles, where he has posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.225 WHIP. Bet the A's at home.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Angels -107
We'll back starter Ervin Santana as he continues owning the Oakland A's Thursday. Santana is 11-2 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in 16 career starts against Oakland. Santana has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all 16 starts, 2 earned runs or less in 15 of them, 1 earned run or less in 9 of them, and 5 scoreless starts among the 16. The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 meetings in Oakland. Enough said. Take the Angels on the Money Line.