Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday June, 14

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

When the Brewers send Shaun Marcum to the hill against the Royals in the wrap up of their three-game series in Kansas City Thursday evening Milwaukee will do so knowing Marcum is in strong KW form with 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in his last three starts. Marcum also sports a super- sharp 1.76 ERA in five career starts against the Royals while owning a 2.84 ERA away from home this season. Too many good numbers to pass by here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Hollywood Sports

White Sox at Cardinals
Prediction: Over

St. Louis (32-31) has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. The Cardinals send out Jake Westbrook who is 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Busch Stadium this season where he has been saddled with a 4.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .320 opponent's batting average as compared to his more respectable 3.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .230 opponent's batting average when on the road. St. Louis has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Westbrook favored. Westbrook is also struggling over his last six starts because he has allowed at least three runs in all those outings while failing to pitch more than 6 innings in five of those appearances. The White Sox's Gavin Floyd has not been effective either. In his last five starts, Floyd owns a rough 10.52 ERA. Floyd's problem is that he is giving up way too many home runs. Over his last 25 2/3 innings, Floyd has surrendered ten dingers. Each of these last five starts have resulted in contests that finished Over the Total. Chicago (34-28) has also played 5 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. Given the Cardinals' proclivity to play Overs when a small favorite of -150 or less, the deeper sabermetrics for both starting pitchers along with complementary team trends provide enough supportive evidence to warrant the Over a solid play in this spot. Take the Over in the game between the White Sox and the Cardinals while listing both starting pitchers Floyd and Westbrook.

Charlie Scott

Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Miami Heat +5.5

This is a UnderDog grind play, hoping to pick up a little easy pocket money over the summer. This system assumes the Dog will cover at least 1 gm in these Finals. The Heat lost s/u and as a dog Tuesday Night in gm #1. Play 1/2 a Unit on the Dog Tonight if they win, we're done . If the Heat doesn't cover Tonight, We'll play the dog again in gm #3 for 1 Unit.

Rob Vinciletti

Astros vs. Giants
Play: Under 7.5

Last night the Astros were no hit by the Giants and M. Cain. That immediately brought me to the database to see how teams who had 2 or less hits and were off a blowout loss responded in the following game. The results were suggestive of the following game to play under the total. Home favorites like the Giants off a home favored win at -200 or higher, that won by 5 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less had played under in 10 of 11 games if their inept opponent was off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs on 2 or less hits. The Giants have stayed under in 22 of 31 at home including 8 of 10 as a home favorite from 125 to -150. They are averaging just 3 runs per game vs Leftys and will take on Wandy Rodriguez who has a solid 3.16 road era. San Francisco will counter with B. Zito and he has a 3.13 home era and has gone under in 5 of his 6 home starts. Look for this one to go under.

Freddy Wills

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Shaun Marcum has been on fire and part of the reason is it is so hard to guess what pitch he's going to throw as he's got an even mix while throwing his fast ball just 28% of the time. That's going to be hard for a team in the Royals who have not seen him much. Just 43 career at bats with a .209 average and a .579 OPS. Marcum was fantastic on the road last year and he picked up right where he left off this year with a 2.84 ERA on the road. He'll go up against the Royals who are 6-22 in their last 28 as inter league under dogs. Milwaukee is also backed by a bullpen that is over a run better on the road than the Royals are at home while both teams are scoring around 3.5 runs in that trend.

The true difference is in the starting pitching as Luke Hochevar has been jsut awful sporting a 10.23 ERA at home. He's been partially hard luck, but I don't see his luck changing enough to get a win. He's still walking a ton of hitters more than Marcum and striking out just around 6 per 9 innings 2 less than Marcum. Over the last 5 games the Royals have struggled to score runs too. Brewers win this game.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is in a pennant race and starter Josh Tomlin has been decent, despite a 4.96 ERA. He doesn't walk anyone (11 walks in 52+ innings) and has allowed 58 hits. He's had one start against the Reds and dominated, allowing 1 run in 7 innings, 3 hits. The Indians are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. the National League Central and 13-6 in their last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincy righty Mat Latos (4.85 ERA) has struggled with his new team and lugs a 6.35 ERA over his last three starts. The Reds are 4-9 in their last 13 interleague home games and the Indians are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play the Indians!

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Tough series so far for the Pirates, but I'm giving Erik Bedard the nod to beat his former team tonight. Not impressed at all with Tommy Hunter for the Orioles, so my choice tonight is the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

Italy vs Croatia - both teams to score +100

Italy played a disciplined defensive game versus top ranked Spain and managed to secure a point in a 1-1 draw. The Italians did look dangerous at times offensively on counter attacks and opened the scoring when Antonio Di Natale found the back of the net five minutes after being subbed on for the enigmatic Mario Balotelli. Look for the Italians to have more ball possession in today’s match and more scoring opportunities as a result. Croatia is coming off a victory over Ireland and they’re a confident bunch sitting atop the four team group at this point. Croatia has great options up front and some technically gifted players in the midfield like Tottenham’s Luka Modric. Croatia has a distinct height advantage and will be dangerous from set pieces and corners. Picking a side, one would likely would lean towards the Italians due to their overall play versus Spain and the urgent need of points to secure progression. History says not so fast as Croatia have won three of the last five meetings between these two countries and the other two ended in draws. Play: Both teams to score (Risking 2 units).

Spain -1½ -115 over Ireland

We’ll pass on this wager, as we refuse to lay 1½ goals and juice but it sure appears as though Spain could win easy. They’ll be chomping at the bit to get going offensively after being stifled by Italy. Make no mistake, Spain has the ability to score in bunches and they may get the opportunity today versus Ireland. Preferably we would like to see a striker included in the starting 11 rather than six midfielders, as was the case against Italy. Without knowing starting lineups it is difficult to know for sure how Spain will set up at kickoff. There is word that Ces Fabregas has a leg injury so the six midfielder strategy could be out the window in favor of a starting striker. Torres would probably be the first choice but Negrado or Llorent would be just fine also. Ireland will put up a fight and play better than they did versus Croatia but eventually Spain will break through and likely cover the spread. However, at this hefty price, we’re not willing to gamble. Play: Spain -1½ -115 (No bets).

JR O'Donnell

White Sox / Cardinals Over 9

Tonight we have just the complete opposite of last night's CWS/ST LOUIE pitchers duel.... Tonight 2 pitchers who have trouble getting anyone out, and two teams that are among the best in their respective leagues in scoring going at it. Chicago sends out Gavin Floyd who is 4-6, 5.38 ERA & a 1.26 WHIP, who has failed to get anywhere close beyond the 6th in his last "5" starts and surrendered "11" dingers in that time period. He is 1-3 in his last five appearances. His mound foe is Jake Westbrook, who has been pasted to the tune of a 4-6 record, 4.25 ERA & bulbous 1.44 WHIP. Westbrook is 0-4 in his last "5" starts in which he raised his ERA +1.68 points. Sox are # in AL in scoring & Cards are #3 in NL in scoring. This one's going over the total of "9"!

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO -106 over Oakland

Misleading surface stats by both these starters has the Rockies very undervalued despite their recent struggles. Jarrod Parker is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA but most of that is smoke and mirrors. In 54 innings, Parker has issued 29 walks while striking out 39. The strikeout rate is decent but those walks are a huge concern, especially at this park. Parker also has other issues. His line-drive rate of 25% is one of the highest among starters in the majors. He has a groundball/fly-ball profile of 39%/36%, numbers that suggest an implosion is pending. Parker’s xERA of 4.65 is almost 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA and that’s after pitching most of his games at pitcher-friendly parks. Parker’s xERA emphasizes the degree to which his results have exceeded his skills. Alex White is the anti-Parker, displaying poor surface stats but is actually quite solid when we scratch beneath the surface numbers. White has walked 12 and struck out 26 in 41 IP. He has an elite groundball rate of 57%. His xERA of 3.68 is close to two runs lower than his 5.66 ERA. He’s been victimized by a crazy 39% HR/FB rate and 63% strand rate, revealing that there remains some true underlying value. Play: Colorado -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Pass NBA

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 over Miami: In the first half of game 1, the Thunder came out a bit flat, as they were a bit in awe of being in the Finals, plus they were rusty after their 6 day layoff. in the second half they got it going and showed just what they are made of, especially on this floor. THe thunder have now won all 9 home games in the playoffs and they have outscored their opponents by 10.7 ppg in the process, while Miami comes in just 4-5 SU & ATS on the road in the playoffs and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, while the Thunder are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games. Other than their bad three-point shooting in Game 1 (5-for-17), the Thunder had the upper hand in most statistical categories, most notably FG Pct. (52% to 46%) and rebounding (43-35). I expect both the latter numbers to continue in this one, plus I don't expect the Thunder to shoot as poorly from long range, while the Heat won't hit 42% of their shots from downtown. The Thunder will come out with a bit more fire in this one and in nthe end should have another DD home win.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ Tampa Bay Under 7.5: I had the Over in this game last night , but I will head the other way today, mainly because of Hellickson. Jeremy has been a very good pitcher for the rays this year, with a 2.65 ERA overall and a 1.59 ERA at home. He is on an 0-7-2 UNDER run has an 0-5-2 UNDER mark at home this year, with his 7 home starts averaging just 4.9 rpg. Johan Santana has struggled on the road for the Mets this year with a 6.20 ERA, but he has a 2.65 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Rays and in 2 career starts here (17 innings) he has allowed just 1 ER. Over his career one thing has remained constant for Johan and that is his ability to pitch in day games and this year has been no exception. Since 2004 Johan has made 86 day starts and he has a very nice 2.58 ERA in those start and that includes his 4 day starts this year, in which he has a nice and tidy 1.12 ERA. Hellickson has also pitched well in day games with a career 2.72 ERA, including a 2.89 ERA in his day starts this year. The Mets offense is hot right now, but Jeremy should be able to slow them down. On the other side we have a struggling Rays offense that hits lefties at a .182 clip at home and should be held in check by Johan today. Look for no more than 5 runs in this one.

Colorado/ Oakland Over 10.5: the Oakland Pitching staff has really been struggling of late as they have a team ERA of 6.96 in their last 5 games, including an ERA of 9.89 from their starters over that stretch. All 5 of those games were away from their pitchers park at home and they have allowed 18 total runs in the first 2 games of this series. Jarod Parker has pitched well for the A's, with a 3.19 ERA, overall, but most of his good pitching has been at home as he has a 5.95 ERA on the road and he has allowed 6 ER's in 2 of his last 3 away from home. Alex White comes in struggling with a 5.66 ERA overall and a 5.11 ERA at home. He has also struggled in his 2 day starts with a 6.55 ERA. These two struggling pitchers will be facing a couple of hot hitting offenses today. The A's have played in 2 hitters parks on this trip so far and their offense has opened up, as they have averaged 6.4 rpg and have hit .298 in the 5 games. Colorado always scores well at home and this year is no exception as they have averaged 6.4 rpg at Coors on the year, including 5.6 rpg on their current home stand. Oakland's road trip has averaged 13.2 rpg, while Colorado's home games have averaged 12.8 rpg overall, including 14.8 rpg in their last 5. I expect about 13 runs in this one.

More Later

Matt Fargo

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins

We won with the Phillies last night but it certainly wasn't without drama. They scored six runs in the first and chased P.J. Walters after just four hitters but they had to hold on for the one run victory. Chances of getting a big lead tonight are slim so scoring runs could be a struggle. Philadelphia did improve to 18-15 on the road so it has been playing well away from home but the situation tonight is a tough one. The win was good but the Phillies are still 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.

The Twins lost for just the fourth time in their last 14 games so they have been on a solid run after a very bad start to the season. The good news is that the American League Central has been mediocre thus far so they trail Cleveland by 8.5 games which at this point of the season is far from unattainable. Minnesota has the second worst scoring differential in all of baseball and the pitching can be blamed but that should not be an issue tonight. The Twins are 45-17 in their last 62 Interleague games as a favorite.

Scott Diamond gets the call for Minnesota and he has been one of the few bright spots in the starting rotation. He is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts with the Twins going 6-1 in those games. He has been even better at home, going 3-0 with a 1.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts with all of those resulting in Minnesota victories. Those four wins represent one-third of the total wins at home for the Twins so his contributions have been huge.

The same cannot be said for Joe Blanton who has really struggled after a slow start to the season. He had a 2.96 ERA through mid-May but he has blown up since then, positing a 9.91 ERA over his last five starts. Three of these poor outings have taken place on the road and those resulted in a 10.13 ERA. He is coming off his best start of those, allowing five runs in 6.2 innings, which shows how bad the other ones were. The Phillies have gone 1-4 in Blanton's last five road starts against teams with a losing record.

JEFF BENTON

Thursday's freebie is the over in the Heat-Thunder game.

Game One just did make it over the total of 195, as the teams combined for 199 total points on Tuesday night. That over was with the Thunder getting off to a little bit of a sluggish start. I will back the over again, as both teams have been playing them on the high side during the postseason of late.

Miami is on a 9-2 over run their last eleven in the playoffs, while Oklahoma City has seen the over come through in each of their last four postseason contests, and they are 12-4 overall in their sixteen playoff games this postseason. A closer look shows seven of the Thunder's nine home playoff games have landed in the over column.

Series numbers show that eight of the last ten meetings between the teams in Oklahoma City have played high, and eleven of the last sixteen overall series meetings have also gone over.

Must respect the trends and look for another over this Thursday night in Game Two of the NBA Finals.

2♦ OVER