CRAIG DAVIS
Free play of the day on the Thunder/Heat to go over the posted total.
Did you pay attention to Game 1? Did you see the Heat shoot like crap in the second half and the game still went over the total? Did you see the Thunder play like garbage in the first half... and yet the game still went over the total?
Too much talent on the floor for these games to stay under the total.
Both may claim to play defense first, but we all know the truth. These teams are trying to out score each other at every chance, regardless of whether or not the defense suffers. It was quite comical to hear Russell Westbrook talk to reporters after the game, stating that his team is all about defense first and that the shots will fall as long as they play good on that side of the ball.
We all know it's simply not true. This is a series with offensive fireworks. While Westbrook might be right in theory, he knows this series is about out scoring the other team. No problem there.
The over is 6-1 in Miami's last 7 games overall, including the 105-94 win in Game 1. The over is also 4-0 in OKC's last 4 games overall.
Enough said.
Take the game to go OVER the posted total as your free play of the day.
4♦ OVER
MATT RIVERS
Your free play for Thursday will be to take the Over in the Phillies-Twins series finale.
Man-oh-man, it has been a hitter's parade the past two days at Target Field, as we have seen the teams combine for a pair of easy Overs, and tonight could very well be the highest amount of runs in the three game set as the beleaguered Joe Blanton steps to the mound for another pounding.
Blanton has allowed 29 runs to cross over his last 26-plus innings pitched, and has a season ERA that is still well over five. Not surprisingly, four of Blanton's last five starts have ended up going Over the total.
Scott Diamond will counter and his numbers have been outstanding since he moved into the starting rotation, as Diamond is the owner of a 5-1 record with an ERA under two. The Over has come through in each of his last pair of starts though, and is 3-1-1 for his last five starts.
Philly has played Over the total in seven in a row now, while Minny has been Over in each of their last five, and eight of ten overall.
No relief in sight for the pitchers tonight. Go Over in Philadelphia-Minnesota.
5♦ OVER
Jack Jones
White Sox/Cardinals OVER 8.5
I fully expect a slug fest tonight between the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of this interleague series. Both line-ups had their hands full last night in facing Jake Peavy and Lance Lynn; two of the best starters in the league this season.
Hitters will be licking their chops at the opportunity to face both Gavin Floyd and Jake Westbrook in this one. Floyd is 4-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 12 starts this season for Chicago, while Westbrook is 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA in 12 starts for St. Louis.
Both starters have really struggled of late. Floyd is 1-3 with a 10.52 ERA over his last five starts with 10 home runs allowed, while Westbrook is 0-4 with a 7.55 ERA in his last six outings. Westbrook is also 0-5 with a 5.87 ERA in his last eight starts against the White Sox.
Chicago is putting up 5.3 runs/game against right-handed starters this season. St. Louis is hitting .288 and scoring 5.1 runs/game at home in 2012. The OVER is 5-0 in Floyd's last 5 starts overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Westbrook's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
Steve Janus
San Francisco Giants -126
I'll take my chances on the Giants coming away with a win at home against the Astros everyday of the week. I mean the Giants Matt Cain just threw a perfect game against Houston last night. Their confidence level has to be at a season-low.
A lot of people remember the Barry Zito that was horrible in San Francisco the last few years, and automatically assume the Giants are in trouble when he takes the mound. Which is a big reason why we are getting such good value on San Francisco against the HOUSTON ASTROS!
Zito is 5-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 starts this season. He has pitched well at home (3-1, 3.13 ERA) and has really been on top of his game over his last three starts (2-1, 2.53 ERA). The Giants are 5-1 in Zito's last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Houston will counter with Wandy Rodriguez (5-4, 3.27 ERA). Definitely one of their top starters, but he has not pitched well of late. Over his last three starts he has a 8.22 ERA and 2.022 WHIP. The Astros are just 1-5 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts as an underdog and 12-32 in his last 44 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -108
After losing 7-1 yesterday, the Pirates fell to 9-50 in their last 59 interleague road games and 3-32 in their last 35 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Expect their road struggles against the AL to continue this evening. The Orioles have won their last 4 games and are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Pittsburgh southpaw Erik Bedard is just 2-4 on the road with an ERA of 4.85. The Orioles are 10-4 in Hunter's last 14 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 home starts. He's carrying a 3.46 ERA at home on the season. We'll bet Baltimore.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota Twins -136
The Phillies have lost 9 of 11 while the Twins have won 10 of their last 14. I'll get behind the red-hot Twins here given the advantage they have on the hill. Scott Diamond has been a force to be reckoned with. The southpaw is 5-1 (6-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.61. He's been almost unhittable at home, where he's 3-0 (4-0 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.03. Philadelphia's Joe Blanton (5-5, 5.33 ERA) has really been struggling. The right-hander has given up 5 runs or more in each of his last 5 starts. He has also had his issues in Minnesota, where he has lost his last 3 starts and gave up at least 4 runs in each. The Phillies are just 6-11 against lefty starters this season as they have only been able to muster 3.2 runs per game against them. I don't believe they'll be able to solve Diamond tonight. Take the Twins.
Teddy Covers
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Chicago White Sox
Cardinals starter Jake Westbrook has been an absolute disaster area for a month now; 0-4 with an ERA approaching 8.00 in his last six starts while giving up 48 hits in just 31 innings of work. He’s been pitching with a cut on the middle finger of his throwing hand; a lingering issue that has clearly affected his mound presence. The Cardinals bullpen behind Westbrook has been struggling mightily, ranked in the bottom quartile of the majors in ERA, blown saves and losses. The White Sox had scored 25 runs in their previous three games prior to getting blanked last night – their high octane lineup has been clicking on all cylinders for weeks, ranked #6 out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored this year. There’s absolutely no reason to think that Chicago won’t be able to tee off on Westbrook and the bullpen behind him tonight; producing runs in bunches
Chicago’s Gavin Floyd hasn’t been any better than Westbrook, allowing 30 earned runs in just 24.2 innings of work in his last five starts. Floyd’s biggest issue has been the gopher ball; giving up ten home runs during that five start span. But Floyd adjusted and corrected a “minor mechanical flaw” in his delivery in a throwing session this weekend. “I worked on something small and it feels amazing. It’s something that was able to free me up and I feel really good about it.” Facing an ice cold Cardinals lineup – a lineup that has produced two runs or less in each of their last five ballgames – with a rested and surprisingly effective bullpen behind Floyd to close out the game without shenanigans, look for the White Sox to take yet another interleague series with a victory here. Take the White Sox.
Bryan Power
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
San Diego has surprisingly taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague set. Surprising not because the Mariners are any kind of juggernaut, but because the Padres themselves have been so bad on the road previously. They came into Seattle having lost 21 of their first 27 road games, but have taken both games by one run, so its hardly been a dominant performance. I think Seattle avoids the sweep tonight. Note that San Diego has NEVER swept Seattle since the two teams began regularly facing off in IL play back in 1997.
Seattle is going with a rookie, Erasmo Ramirez, who makes his first start tonight. Ramirez has seven big league appearances under his belt (out of the bullpen) and in his most recent start at Triple-A Tacoma took a no-hitter into the 8th inning. Overall, he was 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA in Tacoma. The M's offense should also get a boost from the 2012 debut of OF Franklin Gutierrez, who played just 92 games last season after setting career highs in both HR's (18) and RBIs (70) in 2009 and won a Gold Glove in 2010.
San Diego turns to Edinson Volquez on the mound Thursday and his recent results have not been very good. He's 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA his last five starts. In his last start, a 9-5 loss to Milwaukee last Friday, Volquez allowed a season high six runs and allowed three homers.
Note the Padres are just 4-17 vs. left-handers this season, averaging only three runs per game. ALSO NOTE THAT SAN DIEGO IS 0-6 THIS SEASON when off back to back wins!
Lenny Del Genio
Padres @ Mariners
PICK: Under 7.5
This is a very RARE O/U Play for us in MLB, but definitely worth the shot as two low-scoring clubs wrap up a three game set. San Diego has actually taken the first two games, by scores of 5-4 and 1-0, and after yesterday's low-scoring affair it is likely runs will be at premium again Thursday night. Seattle's offense is REALLY struggling of late, totaling only nine runs its last four games and were 0 for 9 w/ RISP in last night's loss. It was also the seventh time this season they've been shutout. The good news (for our cause) is that the Mariners are 25-12 Under after allowing 1 run or less in their previous game. For whatever reason, Seattle really struggles to score runs here at Safeco Field (just 3.1 runs/game) where they are batting less than .200 as a team! San Diego is of course no offensive powerhouse in its own right; they are averaging just 3.0 runs/game vs. lefties and will face a rookie southpaw here that they've never seen.