Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 17,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Braves and Rays complete a three game Interleague series when Tim Hudson toes the rubber against James Shields in Atlanta tonight. Hudson takes the mound in fine form at 5-2 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven team starts. He's also 6-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his career home team starts against the Rays. With James Shields 0-4 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts, look for the Braves to lower the axe on Tampa here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

We used the Dodgers in this spot last night and we will go back with them this afternoon in the series finale. Just like last night, there is tremendous value on the Dodgers here after they have taken the first two games of this series with relative ease. That now makes it 14 wins in the last 17 meetings in this series and for Los Angeles overall, it is now 27-11 over its last 38 games including an 11-3 record on the road. Cincinnati is just 3-6 on its current homestand and it has now fallen into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the National League Central. The pitching is turning into a problem as the ERA from the starters over the last 10 games is a gaudy 5.58 while the bullpen ERA over that span is 5.68. After tossing six straight quality starts, rookie John Ely has struggled over his last two games, allowing four runs in five innings on both occasions. This is a great spot to bounce back as he was hurt by the long ball in those games, giving up three dingers, his first three of the entire season. On the season he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in nine starts with the Dodgers going 6-3 in those games. The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been extremely inconsistent all season. In his 13 starts, he has thrown only six quality outings and only three of his six starts at home have been quality performances as well. In his career, Arroyo is just 22-31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to 69-55 with a 4.15 ERA at night and facing the Dodgers will not help matters. In nine starts against Los Angeles, he is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA with his teams going just 1-8 in those games. This includes a 0-4 record since 2008. The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game while the Reds are 1-7 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game so momentum has played a big role of late. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers

Steve Merril

Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

A pair of aces will be on display Thursday afternoon in Minnesota as Francisco Liriano takes on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez. The Rockies righty is 12-1 with a 1.16 ERA on the year. There have been a couple of chinks in his armor as he's given up five runs and 11 hits in his last 13 innings pitched. Minnesota faced Jimenez in 2008 beating him 4-2 in Colorado. He gave up three runs and eight hits in seven innings of work in that game. Justin Morneau (1-3), Joe Mauer (1-4), and Delmon Young (3-3) all have hits off him. Minnesota is 23-12 at home and 26-18 against right-handed pitching, and the Twins have also feasted on N.L. pitching as they are hitting over .290 as a team. Francisco Liriano is rounding into the ace the Twins expected him to be. He's 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 12 starts. The lefty is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts striking out 28 while walking only two. Miguel Olivo (4-13) and Melvin Mora (0-3) are the only two Rockies who have faced Liriano. Colorado is just 10-9 against left-handed starters averaging 4.4 runs per game. They are also 14-20 on the road where they are hitting .235 as a squad. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, we like Liriano to out-duel Jimenez this afternoon.

Cajun Sports

Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox look to sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday night after taking the first two games of their three-game set rather easily 6 to 4 and 7 to 2. The Pirates are currently on a ten-game losing streak while the Sox have won six of their last seven overall. Chicago is 21-8 their last twenty-nine interleague games and a solid 40-18 when installed as a favorite versus teams from the National League including 13-3 when favored in this price range. Playing on the road has not been a problem at all for the Sox during interleague play going 6-1 their last seven in this situation. Chicago is 8-1 in their last nine interleague contests facing a right-handed starter and a perfect 5-0 their last five overall versus righties. The Pirates have struggled against teams from the American League posting a record of 23-48 their last seventy-one interleague games. Pittsburgh is 18-40 when installed as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 21-56 their last seventy-seven as an interleague underdog. If you are looking for the Pirates to rebound and grab a Game 3 victory you might want to consider the fact they are 14-37 the last fifty-one attempts at that feat. We are going to back the Sox again as they sweep a terrible Pirates squad on Thursday night in the Steel City.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago White Sox 5 Pittsburgh Pirates 3

Craig Trapp
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Just a few weeks ago TB was one of the best teams in the league but don't look now they have lost 4 of 6 and have not looked great in many of the games. Worse news for TB is that pitching has not been great for them. Including struggles with today's starter Shields. 0-4 last 4 starts as Shields has given up 22 runs in 23 innings. On the other side we have one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL as Hudson goes for ATL. Hudson has been dominating with a ton of ground ball outs and he has not allowed over 3 runs this season. ATL is not the best at the plate but at home they are much better and combine that with Shields struggles think ATL will win very easily.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chicago fits a nice system here tonight that plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs,if they left 5 or more men on base and they are taking on an opponent off a 5 or more run home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and left 4 or less men on base. These road favorites cash 84% of the time over the past few years. The Pirates are on a long losing streak and have been playing lousy fundamental baseball, as evidence by all their errors last night. Chicago will look to get their first road sweep tonight.

BIG AL
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Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
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There's nothing like an inter-league game against a really bad National League team and a really bad National League pitcher to help a really bad American League team break out of its funk in a big way. To be fair to the Royals, they actually had already beaten a really good National League team in two out of three games over the weekend before really breaking out on Tuesday night against the really bad Houston Astros and scoring 15 runs on 20 hits, most of it against Felipe Paulino. Now they face a decidedly better starter in righthander Brett Myers. Through 13 starts, Myers has a very nice ERA of just 3.18, but his problem is that he no longer pitches for a team like the Phillies, so he's only won four of those 13 starts thanks to his anemic offense. Myers has faced 12 AL teams in his career, but he's never faced the Royals, although his inter-league record leaves a lot to be desired. In 22 inter-league games (20 starts) he's just 6-6 with an ugly ERA of 5.66. Take the Royals.

Jack Jones
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Arizona Diamondbacks +133
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Dan Haren has finally turned the corner for the Diamondbacks, pitching very well of late after his usual slow start to the season. Haren is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Arizona. He is mowing down hitters this season, striking out 97 batters in 95.2 innings. His control has been much better of late, and he is no longer serving up the long ball. Haren gave up just 2 walks and 1 home run in his last 3 outings.
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John Lackey has not pitched well this season though his record would not indicate it. Lackey is 7-3 despite posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.574 WHIP this year. He is 5-1 at home despite a 5.10 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his seven home outings. This just means that Lackey has been getting tremendous run support, but that ends tonight against Haren. The Diamondbacks Ace has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in six career starts vs. Boston. This is notoriously one of Haren's best months, as the righty has gone 25-9 against the money line in June games since 1997. He is also 25-9 against the Money Line vs. AL East opponents in his career. So Haren has owned what is known as the best division in basebal throughout his career. Boston could be disinterested tonight after winning the first 2 games of this series and with the Dodgers up next. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. Take Arizona Thursday showing solid value.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Take: Chicago White Sox

Chicago starter Jake Peavy has a 48-7 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings since the start of May. He has allowed 12 homers through 83.1 innings this season, but that won't be a problem against this light hitting Pittsburgh team. The team is 5-3 his last 8 starts. Last place Pittsburgh has starter Ross Ohlendorf and the team is 1-6 in his last 7 starts. Ohlendorf gave up six runs on 10 hits over six innings on Friday night against the Tigers and fell to 0-4 with the loss. Play the White Sox.

Gill Alexander
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LOS (-110) vs CIN
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Ely is coming off two marginal starts compared to the mastery of his earlier ones. But, a closer look reveals that in his most recent outing, a 5IP, 4ER, 6H appearance v LAA, he really only threw 2 costly pitches. He still has a stellar 1.13WHIP. Arroyo has a 6.52ERA in his last 3 starts. LAD is batting .357 and averaging 9.2 R/G in 5G at Great American Ballpark this season. Ely has a 3.11FIP (10th best in MLB if he qualified) and 3.82xFIP in '10. Arroyo has a 4.54FIP and a 5.08xFIP (13th worst in MLB). Loney (.471) and Ethier (.368) rake Arroyo while Ramirez is hitting .485 in his last 10 v Cin. LAD has won 29 of 38 v Cin. I expect it to be 30 of 39 this afternoon.

Brad Diamond Sports
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NY Yankees -1½ over Philadelphia
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First, the runs line used for this selection is a projection (unlike the aforementioned action line above) the Phillies are in deep water on Thursday. RHP Kyle Kendrick has talent, but his tendency to get up in the strike zone is the kiss of death against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium where the short porches show fast. Technically, New York roars in at 11-1 in IL play versus right-handed pitchers and 42-10 at home against strong siders. In addition, the Yankees show at 6-1 (versus a winning team) with lefty Andy Pettitte at home and 21-6 overall in the Bronx. The Phillies are 1-5 in Interleague games and 1-7 in road starts. Finally, the visitor here is 0-5 last five times out versus the port side hurlers.

JEFF BENTON

Back-to-back easy freebie winners, as I scored with the Braves in a rout on Wednesday. I’m now on an 88-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday, I’m staying in Atlanta and once again backing the Braves against Tampa Bay.

As I said Wednesday, once you get past the starting pitching matchup, these are two very evenly matched ballclubs. And the results of the first two games of this series have proven that accurate, as the Rays cruised to a 10-4 on Monday with David Price outpitching Kenshin Kawakami, while Atlanta got revenge with Tuesday’s 6-2 win thanks to a dominant performance by Tommy Hanson and a subpar effort by Tampa right-hander Wade Davis.

Well, in this rubber match, Atlanta once again has the pitching edge with Tim Hudson opposing the Rays’ James Shields. The numbers tell the story: Hudson is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, and he’s held all 13 of his opponents to three earned runs or fewer (allowing two runs or less 11 times). And the veteran righty has been lights out at home (3-1, 2.02 ERA). Also, check out Hudson’s career numbers against Tampa Bay: 6-1, 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .230 batting-average against.

As for Shields, he started out strong, but he’s now 5-5 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he’s given up the following run totals: 7, 6 and 10. He’s also surrendered a combined 30 hits and five walks in those three games covering just 15 2/3 innings. And after going 7-2 in Shields’ first nine starts, Tampa Bay has lost his last four in a row by a combined score of 30-15.

The Braves are now on runs of 20-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 21-7 against right-handed starters and 45-19 as a chalk. Atlanta is also 5-0 in Hudson’s last five outings as a favorite and 17-8 in his last 25 as a home chalk. At the same time, the Rays are 8-21 in Shields’ last 29 starts as a road underdog.

Put it all together and toss in a very reasonable price, and I’ll look for Atlanta to win this series.

4♦ ATLANTA BRAVES

JAY MCNEIL

Los Angeles at Cincinnati

Arroyo hasn’t necessarily been all that impressive in his last three starts, as he’s 0-1 and has allowed 14 earned runs over about 19 innings of work. The veteran right-hander comes in after pitching seven innings in the series opener against Kansas City last Friday, when he allowed five runs and six hits with three walks. Now he comes in for a day game against the overpowering Dodgers, and that’s not a good thing, as Arroyo is -31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to an impressive 69-55 with at night.

Though I’m basing on this play on going against Arroyo, I’ll make mention that young John Ely is due to negate this dry patch he’s encountered. I know he’s allowed four runs in five innings in each of his past two starts and has given up a combined three home runs, but that’s to be expected once teams have accurate scouting reports to play off of.

But the fact is, when Ely is spot-on, he’s successful. He has near-pinpoint control with a fastball that doesn't reach much beyond the high 80s, while his best pitch is a plus-plus changeup. His 12-to-6 curveball can be an out pitch at times, too.

This is a good spot for him to get back on track, so I’ll play the Dodgers and list both for the easy win.

2♦ DODGERS

JOEL TYSON

The linemakers have been very stubborn about lowering the total in this Celtics-Lakers series, so I am forced to go with the obvious this Thursday evening in Game 7 of the series, and that is to play the game under the total.

The under has been the play the last 4 times these teams have stepped foot on the court, and it really hasn't been close, as Tuesday night's game stayed low by over 40 points.

Last Sunday night's game in Beantown landed under by 10 points or so, and last Thursday night's game on the parquet floor wound up being under by 15 points.

The numbers simply cannot be ignored here...play the low, and force these teams to show you they can actually score some points.

I doubt they can!

3♦ UNDER