BRETT ATKINS
It's an interleague winner tonight coming on the Astros as they should take care of business when they finish off a series against the Royals in Kansas City.
The Royals are going with Anthony Lerew in his first start of the season tonight against the Astros in interleague play from Kansas City. Lerew hasn’t started since September last year when he made two spot starts – facing the Yankees and Red Sox, losing both and allowing six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
The Royals are just 3-7 as a home favorite and 2-7 in interleague home games.
Meanwhile, the Astros have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the mound tonight and he has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight starts. He gave up four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in the Bronx on Friday, but was coming off two superb outings against the Cubs and Nationals, giving up three earned runs in 13.2 innings.
I’ll gladly take any plus-money on Myers in this one. Play the Astros.
4♦ HOUSTON
Derek Mancini
Nice comp winner with the Dodgers over the Reds 6-2 last night. Going with another road chalk Thursday, as the White Sox and Pirates finish up their series, and I'm calling for the sweep.
Pirates couldn't have picked a worse time to run into the Pale Hose, who are surging, winners of 6 of their L7, including yesterday's 7-2 victory. Danks was great, and the Pirates once again failed to do much of anything at the plate. Their six errors was a complete embarassment and shows just far this team has sunk during their now 10-game losing streak.
Problems only mount as they face another lefty tonight in Mark Buehrle (4-6, 4.93 ERA). He started the month off horribly, but quickly recovered in his last start, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless at the Cubs Saturday. It's no secret that Buehrle has dominated the NL throughout his career, going 21-6 in interleague play. That includes a 3-0 record and 1.80 ERA in 4 career starts against the Pirates.
Not much hope for Ohlendorf (0-4, 4.95 ERA) here, as he continues to look for his 1st win of the season. He was terrible at Detroit in his last outing, and facing a White Sox offense that's finally woken up (thanks in large part to Konerko) won't help. He's also 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in 2 career games (1 start) vs. the Pale Hose.
2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Chris Jordan
Let me be the first to tell you, and keep this in mind for the second half of the season, the Nationals are going to be an absolute dangerous baseball underdog after the All-Star Break. Their rotation with Strasburg, Lannan, Hernandez and today’s starter Luis Atilano can be productive from what I’ve seen thus far. I like this kid Atilano, who is 5-3 thus far, with a somewhat respectable 4.34 ERA, but most importantly has been a workhorse on the road and plenty reliable in opposing stadiums.
The 25-year-old right-hander is 4-1 with a suitcase in hand, and sports an even better 3.51 ERA than his overall number. I know he’s lost his last two starts, but he was due to fail, and he didn’t even pitch that bad against Cleveland or Cincinnati, allowing just four earned runs over 12 innings of work.
The loss to Cleveland was his first road setback, as he dealt nothing but value against the Cubs, Mets, Rockies, Giants and Astros. I expect nothing less today against the Tigers. I know he’ll be in for a battle against Jeremy Bonderman, who has a 2.45 ERA at home. But Detroit’s right-hander is 1-2 in Motown, and just was swatted around for seven earned runs by Kansas City two starts back.
Give me the huge value play with a great price on this underdog today.
3♦ NATIONALS
Stephen Nover
There has been a big gap between the two clubs since the Yankees beat the Phillies in the World Series last year. The gap has become so large the Yankees are worth laying 1 1/2 on the run line against Philadelphia.
The Yankees remain one of the best, if not the best, team in baseball. The Phillies, however, are really struggling. Their hitting has fallen apart with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth all mired in slumps and Jimmy Rollins on the DL.
The Phillies aren't helped by this pitching mismatch either. They are going with right-hander Kyle Kendrick against southpaw Andy Pettitte.
Kendrick has a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Phillies have lost in eight of Kendrick’s past 10 road starts. He's in danger of losing his spot in the rotation when J.A. Happ comes off the DL in the near future.
The Yankees are 42-10 at home when facing a right-handed starter. The Phillies have lost the last five times they've gone against a southpaw.
Pettitte is red-hot, too, not surrendering more than two earned runs during any of his past four starts. He is 6-1 at Yankee Stadium this season with a 2.84 ERA.
The Yankees are 27-11 in Pettitte's last 38 interleague starts.
3♦ YANKEES -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
Thursday’s complimentary selection in interleague action comes from Yankee Stadium, as I’ll take New York on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Phillies.
Philadelphia got a stunning pitching performance from the ageless Jamie Moyer last night and pulled off a huge 6-3 upset victory, which snapped the Yankees’ nine-game home winning streak. However, New York simply doesn’t lose consecutive home games – it’s happened just once all season, and it was a three-game slide against the Red Sox (one) and Rays (two), two squads that are vastly superior to the mediocre Phillies.
Go back to last summer, and the Yankees are on a 61-17 roll in their new stadium. And get this: 22 of their 23 home wins this season have been by more than one run. Re-read that, because it’s a remarkable statistic.
I’ll absolutely side with Andy Pettitte (8-1, 2.46 ERA) over Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.80) on the mound, too. Over his last four starts, Pettitte has allowed just seven runs in 30 innings (2.10 ERA) with a 23-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and New York is 10-2 in Pettitte’s 12 starts this year (7-1 at home). Also, Pettitte has faced Philadelphia six times since 2005 (when he was with the Astros), and his teams are a perfect 6-0. That includes two World Series starts last year, and New York rolled to multiple-run wins (8-5 and 7-3).
As for Kendrick, he’s coming off a rough outing at Florida (six runs allowed in five innings), and though his offense bailed him out in a 10-8 home win, the Phillies are just 6-6 when Kendrick takes the mound, including 2-4 on the road.
Last night’s victory aside, the Phillies are still in slumps of 7-15 overall, 2-7 on the road, 1-7 as an underdog, 1-4 after a victory, 2-8 when Kendrick pitches on the road and 2-5 versus the A.L. Additionally, 13 of the Phillies’ last 16 defeats have been by more than one run.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Karl Garrett
Tampa ran into a bit of good pitching last night in Atlanta, as Tommy Hanson righted the ship for the Braves after Tuesday's 10-4 loss.
G-Man likes the pitching matchup again tonight to favor Atlanta, as Tim Hudson has been rock-solid all season long for the Bravos, sporting a 6-2 mark with a 2.43 season ERA. Hudson is coming off a very hard-luck loss, working 8 frames of 2 run ball in a loss to the Twins.
For the year, Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts.
Tampa will start James Shields who has lost his way of late. Shields has lost his last 4 starts, and he has been bombarded for 19 earned runs, and 25 hits over his last 23-plus innings of work.
With the Braves now 20-7 at home this year after last night's win, G-Man will ride Atlanta to take the rubber-game of this set.
3♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Nailed the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Mets as they took down the Indians in Cleveland and improved my comp record to 110-92-3. Tonight I have a freebie comign on the Astros as they take on the Royals in Kansas City.
I love Houston in this matchup as they have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the hill in Kansas City against the Royals’ Anthony Lerew, who is making his first start of the season and just his sixth career start.
Myers has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight outings and three runs or less in eight of his last 10. In New York on Friday, he allowed four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in a tough 4-3 loss. But prior to that he’d completely shut down the Cubs and Nationals in back-to-back starts, allowing three earned runs in 13.2 innings of work.
Lerew hasn’t started this season and his team has lost four of his previous five career outings. Last September he made two starts for the Royals, losing to the Red Sox and Yankees. He allowed a combined six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
Kansas City has not been very good lately, just 3-7 as a home favorite, 2-6 against right-handers in interleague action, 2-7 in interleague home games and 6-15 at home against teams with road winning percentages of less than .400.
Myers and the Astros should roll to win in this one as Lerew has not been very good in the spot starts he’s had previously. Houston took Wednesday’s contest and I expect them to win today as well. Let’s take any plus-money we can get and go with Houston in this one.
2♦ HOUSTON
SPORTS WAGERS
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Boston +7 over LOS ANGELES
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To begin, let’s give big props to Jeff Van Gundy for his great commentary and sense of humor throughout these playoffs. He’s so great to listen to and makes the games extremely enjoyable to watch. This series has been so unpredictable from game to game that you’re really flipping a coin in terms of which team will cover. Both the C’s and the Lakers can look so tough one game and lay an egg the next. Having said that and based on the outcome of the last game, this line is simply too high. The Celtics have rebounded strong after every loss this playoff season and there’s no reason to expect anything different tonight. There’s no tomorrow for either side and there is just no way the Celtics will lay down the way they did in game six. They fell behind big time and subsequently starting throwing up low percentage three’s in an attempt to get back in it. What you’re more likely to see tonight is a methodical and sound performance from every player. Aside from Kobe and Gasol, no other Laker can be trusted to have a big game. Of course it could happen but the Celtics are much deeper, they play tremendous defense and again, they’ve made all the right adjustments after a loss. The 7 points offered just adds to that appeal and while the C’s could absolutely lose, chances are they stay well within this margin. Play: Boston +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Los Angeles –1½ +1.47 over CINCINNATI
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The Dodgers are ripping this host apart and after winning the first two games by a combined score of 18-2, things surely don’t get tougher for them here. Cleveland, St, Louis and Kansas City have rocked Bronson Arroyo in three of his last five starts. His two good outings over that stretch came against PIT and WAS. He’s not having a bad year but Arroyo is consistent in that he will give up runs for sure and is more likely to give up four or five than two or three. With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats at this park chances are good that they’ll score a whole bunch once again. Besides, the Reds are reeling, they’re fragile, this will be its 10th straight game at home and they could very much be looking forward to hitting the road and playing in Seattle this weekend. John Ely is coming off a couple of tough starts against Atlanta and the Angels, two of the hottest hitting squads in the league. Still, he’s only allowed three jacks all season in 56 IP and that’s nice to know when pitching at this park. He also throws strikes (13 walks all year) and that, too, is crucial for success at this venue. Ely has solid numbers right across the board and those impressive numbers are not limited to Dodger Stadium. On the road, Ely has yet to allow a single bomb and the league has hit just .222 off him. After each loss, winning the next game becomes more difficult and right now the Reds can’t wait to see the Mariners. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
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Oakland +1.09 over CHICAGO
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Much has been said about Dallas Braden’s injuries the past few games but he was pushed back a couple of days because of elbow tendinitis and he says his ankle is fine. The point is, the A’s would not start him if he wasn’t feeling 100% and that’s all there is to it. Braden is a solid pitcher and should be raring and ready to go here against a very beatable team. Even with three poor outings in a row, Braden still has an ERA of 3.95 and a BAA of .259. He’s had no run support whatsoever and thus, the misleading 4-6 record. Fact is, Braden has outstanding control (14 walks and a 1.16 WHIP in 82 IP) and the Cubbies have never seen him before. The A’s lost last night but they faced a very tough Ryan Dempster and once again the Cubbies are overvalued here with Randy Wells going. Wells has been spiraling out of control after a solid April. Since April 25, his ERA has risen from 2.59 to the current 5.15. At Wrigley, Wells has allowed 45 hits in 32 frames for a BAA of .326. His BAA in two starts this month is .404. His home ERA is 6.47 and in his last four starts, the Cards, Astros and White Sox absolutely torched him. His only good start in recent memory came against the feeble Pirates. Wells is about as mentally fragile as a pitcher can be and once again the Cubbies are ripe as hell to be beat. Play: Oakland +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
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Tampa Bay +1.16 over ATLANTA
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James Shields has fallen on hard times recently with three poor outings in succession, however, one of those came at Texas and this guy has thrown too many gems this season to be overly concerned about it. Shields has a gem against the Yanks, not once but twice and against the Red Sox among a slew of others. He ranks seventh in the AL with 82 K’s and in 42 road innings he’s walked just 7 batters. His numbers are not great, his last three games have been disastrous and he’s facing a guy with outstanding numbers and an outstanding reputation in Tim Hudson. Why then, did the Braves open at such a short (-1.18) price? Oddsmakers are too sharp too make an error and they know Hudson (26 BPV, 3-0-5-2-4 PQS) is having a season that is unsustainable. A 2.43 ERA, close to two full runs below xERA of 4.16 is due in part to a depressed hit rate (24%) and inflated strand rate (82%). Unheard of ground ball rates (65%) and line drive rates (12%) have helped his season and he’s been pitching with huge leads on so many occasions. Fact is, he has just 36 K’s against 30 walks and he’s been perhaps the leagues most fortunate pitcher in that everything has been hit right at people. A big correction in his numbers is forthcoming and according to the line, the oddsmakers expect that correction to take place here. Play: Tampa Bay +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Hollywood Sports
Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson is having an outstanding season for the Braves this year as evidenced by his 6-2 record that accompanies his 2.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Hudson is particularly tough at home in Turner Field where he enjoys a 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP while batters are hitting only .202 against him. He should out-duel James Shields who has lost his last three starts while compiling a whopping 11.49 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over that stretch. Shields struggles when he pitches away from Tropicana Field. Last season, he had a 4.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a .282 opponent's batting average when on the road. This year, despite a better 3.43 ERA, he still has a high 1.40 WHIP while allowing batters to hit .299 when he pitches on the road this season.
A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate the vast difference between these two starting pitchers this season. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Hudson has a sparkling low ISO of .094 while Shields has a very high .197 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Shields for many more extra-base hits than they are against Hudson. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it helps expose a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we can get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which helps produce a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
John Ryan
Phillies at Yankees
Prediction: Under
3* graded play UNDER Philadelphia/NY Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 10 runs will be scored. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 84-36 making 43.4 units since 2004. Play under with all teams where the total is 10 or higher with a winning record on the season playing another winning team and playing on Thursday. Thursday is a meaningful day of the week as it either is the day that series end or 4 game sets that start. Pettitte is a solid 27-11 UNDER (+14.4 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons; 30-14 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Phillies had B2B home runs for the first time this season in last night?s win. Last year they had 11 for the season and reflects the fact that they as a team are just not hitting well. Charlie Manuel is 34-15 UNDER (+17.0 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season in all games he has managed since 1997. We fully expect Kendrick and Pettitte to pitch well and combine for more than 12 innings of work. Bullpens are in good form and will support the UNDER winning play tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at Minnesota
Pick: UNDER 6.5
We've got quite a pitching matchup in Minnesota this afternoon, with this year's top pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez squaring of with a resurgent Francisco Liriano. Jimenez has allowed zero runs in almost half of his starts, which certainly puts a lot of attention on the UNDER here. Not far behind is Francisco Liriano who has allowed zero runs in three starts, and just 1 in 42% of his starts. Needless to say, runs will be at a premium in this one. There is also more pointing in this direction with the Rockies at 7-1 to the UNDER in interleague play vs. a lefthander in their last eight. The Twins enter at 33-16-2 to the UNDER as an interleague dog.
I'll ride the UNDER here
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Tonight’s game will end the three game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves. Both pitchers go into tonight’s matchup with the same record starts of 7-6. James Shields who is starting for the Rays has been pitching terrible. In the last three starts, he has a terribly high 11.49 ERA and 2.235 WHIP. On the other side of the matchup, Tim Hudson has a 2.43 ERA in all starts and when playing at home he has a 2.02 ERA and .0975 WHIP. Watch as Hudson has another amazing game at home and Atlanta takes the WIN!
Play on: Los Angeles Dodgers
EZWINNERS
Cleveland Indians -108
The Met's starting pitcher R.A. Dickey is a perfect 4-0 since being called up from the minor leagues by New York. The knuckleballer has an ERA of just 2.78 and has recorded a quality start in four of his five outings. The thing about knuckleballers is that some nights they take the mound and the knuckleball is just not good and they get hit like batting practice. That has not yet happened to Dickey, but he is more than due for it to happen. Cleveland's starting pitcher Jake Westbrook has been a little erratic this year after missing most of 2008 and all of 2009 after having Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Westbrook looks like he is getting back on track as he is now 4-1 in seven starts since May 11. Westbrook was solid against the Nationals in his last outing giving up two runs over 7 2/3 innings in a 7-2 win on Friday. I look for him to have another solid outing here. The Indians are 4-1 in game three of a series the last five times they have lost the first two games of a series and they are 9-3 in their last twelve games as a favorite of -$150 or less. Play on Cleveland.
Matt Rivers
Call me stubborn and a sucker for backing these Phillies because they do stink right now, even with the win yesterday, but I am going to do just that. This team just has to start hitting at some point and at this takeback, even in the Bronx against the Big Bad Yankees, I can't help but make at least a small play on them. Granted Utley and Howard and the rest of Charlie Manual's boys are awful for whatever reason but it's not like they don't have the potential to turn things around. For Gosh sake this team has played in back-to-back World Series, right? I understand they are colder than ice but I like Kyle Kendrick and this price is just too much, red hot or ice cold.
Andy Pettitte has been great in most of his starts and is pitching like a young inspired kid. I have no qualms at all with the lefty and things will be far from easy for the visitors. But Philadelphia still has too many players that have to turn things around in the near future.
Kendrick certainly has a tall task against Joe Girardi's Yankees as the Bombers probably are the best team in the game but I can't help myself at this price and in a comp type play will take my chances on the Phillies and hope they can fight a little bit in an rare recent win.
Pick: Philadelphia +190
Tom Freese
Ny Mets at Cleveland
The Mets knuckelballer R.A. Dickey has allowed just 10 runs in his 5 starts this year. New York is 7-0 their last 7 Interleauge games. The Mets are 16-5 their last 21 games overall. The Mets are 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts. Dickey has 15 strikeouts and just 3 walks in his last 3 starts. Clrvrland starter Jake Westbrook is 5-8 in his 13 starts this year. The Indians are 7-16 their last 23 home games. The Tribe are 14-39 their 53 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 2-5 their last 7 meetings with the Mets. PLAY ON NEW YORK