Rocketman
Boston @ LA Lakers
Play: LA Lakers -7
I've had a tremendous NBA season once again as we cash 61% for the entire season!! Thanks again to all who joined us!! Well, it's game 7 of the NBA Finals. I'm very surprised that Boston made it this far this year. They went through two tough teams in the East to get here in Cleveland and Orlando and they have played very well in this series. The momentum, however, switched back to the LA Lakers after a 22 point blowout in Game 6. Game 7 will be played in front of another LA Lakers home crowd and will not be easy for the Celtics. Boston is 3-11 ATS this year after 3 or more Unders. LA Lakers are 19-7 ATS since 1996 when tied in a playoff series. LA Lakers are 44-8 SU at home this year. Looks like Boston may be without Kendrick Perkins here tonight. Kobe Bryant will come well prepared and should pour in a number of points. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Lakers tonight!
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox -142
Reasons the Red Sox win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. This is a 60-18 ML System hitting 76.9% over the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season.
2.) John Lackey has been solid after a mediocre start this year. Lackey is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts, and in his last 2 starts he has allowed just 4 earned runs in 14 innings. Arizona is 9-24 on the road this year, hitting .231 and scoring only 4.0 RPG. Boston is hitting .288 and scoring 5.6 RPG at home.
3.) Lackey is 12-1 against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997. Boston is 14-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. They rarely lose games they are supposed to win, and this would classify as one of those contests. Bet the Red Sox at home.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -125
The Pirates have now lost 10 in a row, and it is going to be very difficult for them to end their skid against a White Sox club that has won 6 of 7 tonight. Buehrle gets the ball for the Sox, and he is coming off a brilliant performance against the Cubs, allowing 0 runs in 6 2-3 innings. In addition, the White Sox are 14-4 in Buehrle's last 18 starts as a road favorite and 21-6 in his last 27 interleague starts. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 1-6 in Ohlendorf's last 7 starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Plus, the White Sox have had Pittsburgh's number, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. Take the white hot White Sox against the ice cold Pirates tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -125
The Pirates have lost 10 in a row. Sooner or later they have to win one, but I don't think it will be tonight. The White Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and 7 of their last 8 against the Pirates. Plus, the send Buehrle to the mound, and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in interleague play. In fact, the White Sox are 21-6 in Buehrle's last 27 interleague starts. Lastly, the Bucs have lost 6 of their 7 and 10 of their 12 with Ohlendorf on the hill. We'll side with the White Sox here.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Braves -115
Excellent value on the Braves at home Thursday as they host the Rays in Game 3 of their series. After these teams split the first two contests, the edge has to go to Atlanta in Game 3 with Tim Hudson over James Shields. Hudson is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA this season, and he's been virtually un-hittable at home, going 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. James Shields has been atrocious recently, going 0-3 with an 11.49 ERA and 2.235 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He gave up 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings to the White Sox, and 10 earned runs in 3.1 innings to the Marlins. He also gave up 6 runs to the Rangers in 7 innings, but only 3 were earned or his ERA would be even higher in his last 3 starts if it isn't already high enough. Atlanta is 19-4 as a home favorite of -110 or bigger this season. Take the Braves on the Money Line.
JR O'Donnell
ARI (+130) vs BOS
We are all over the D Backs and Dan Haren +130 to win!! He is a solid 7-4 over all and a nice 4.61 ERA. The bleeding will stop for the visitor as he will shut down the Red Sox in Fenway. We note that the last 2 games spun by the Zona ace Haren was great, He is confident and does own a nice 2-0 and 1.25 ERA the last 3 vs. the Red Sox. The public will be backing the Red Sox team tonight and in our opinion D backs will hit the over rated J Lackey. The boys from Zona are a sharp dog play tonight.
Spartan
BOS +7 vs LAL
Will be a lot of knee jerk reaction from the squares tonight after the mugging the Lakers put on the Celtics last time out. Boston had one of those nights where pretty much everything they tried went sideways on them. They could not shoot, even layups, and even broke down with fundamental things like blocking out. In other words they flopped miserably. I just have a very difficult time believing they will not come out tonight and compete hard and stay within this number. If they are not hitting then that will be that, however the other night was like the perfect storm in that while the Celtics could seemingly do absolutely nothing right the Lakers were playing almost perfect basketball. I cannot see either team repeating, I predict it will be somewhere in the middle. One thing keeping me from stepping up bigger here is the injury to Perkins, it's bigger than many seem to understand. I can actually recall the 1970 finals when the Knicks Willis Reed was not expected to play and came hobbling out onto the Madison Square Garden floor and the lift it gave his team was beyond description and the Knicks went on to prevail over Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West and that powerful Lakers squad, I've seen it done before guys. The Celtics are a proud team that all too well knows the stakes tonight. Their window of opportunity is rapidly closing and I sincerely feel Doc Rivers will have his guys motivated to the max tonight.
The Celtics have been the very best NBA road team this season both during the regular season and the post season. Plus, keep in mind that the winner of game #2 has prevailed in every single series this post season.
I think the Celtics are the smarter play tonight guys.
Sac Lawson
ATL (-115) vs TAM
How can you not like a team that is 20-7 at home? Especially at this short number, and especially with a guy in Tim Hudson who hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any start this season! Hudson is definitely rolling, and in this rubber match against Tampa, I do expect the home team to grab the win.
Starting at the back and moving forward. These two teams are as even as they come in terms of bullpen strength. Tampa is 6th best in the majors, Atlanta is 7th. No edge there, in my opinion.
And to be brief. I'd be lying if I said this play was based off much more than starting pitching. I simply think James Shields is struggling like crazy right now. Although it's dangerous fading a guy like him, with the amount of talent he has, at this point against this Braves team, I think it's a decent option.
The thing that is alarming about Shields this year is the WHIP. He's getting hit like crazy since the month of April. This is a strikeout pitcher who depends on his stuff being simply overpowering. He hasn't had that luxury over the last couple months, and as a result, he's been beat up like crazy. Coming into today, I wanted to find a way to justify him pitching well this evening. Does he succeed against teams he hasn't faced much? Does he succeed against NL team? Both questions were unable to be answered conclusively, quite frankly, which leaves me no reason to suspect he'll break his current form.
Listen, with how solid Hudson has been, we don't even need Shields to be bad tonight, we just need him to be mediocre. And with how he's pitched lately, that'd actually be a step FORWARD. The way I see it, we're actually giving him the benefit of the doubt. But unless Shields is masterful yet again, I do see the Braves gaining an early lead and holding on late. 1 unit on the Braves.