SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami +156 over SAN FRANCISCO (5 innings)SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. Chad Gaudin is a reliever that was pressed into an emergency start, which subsequently has turned into three straight starts, making this his fourth in a row in that role. The good news is that this career middle reliever come in with a 2.83 ERA. The bad news is pretty much everything else. The next question is, "Do we get hazard pay for looking at numbers like this?" In 787 career innings, Gaudin has walked 358 batters, has a 1.50 WHIP, a 4.52 career ERA, two saves and four blown saves and a 28% groundball rate, by far the lowest groundball mark of any pitcher with over 350 career innings. Gaudin is used to pitching to one or two batters and sometimes a full inning. Now he’s been asked to stretch out. Gaudin was whacked in his last start in Atlanta and although this is the Marlins, his chances of success remain as low as any starting pitcher in baseball.
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In seven starts for the Fish, Tom Koehler is 0-5 with a 5.09 ERA. Those are some of the most misleading numbers in the game and it’s due to an unreasonable 60% strand rate. Koehler has a very respectable 3.78 xERA. He also has an elite groundball rate of 53% in those seven starts and his fastball is up to 93.5 MPH. Koehler isn’t overpowering by any means but he does have above average offerings and can get hitters to chase his curveball. His repertoire consists of an 87-93 mph fastball that he generally locates to both sides of the plate, a cutter, curveball, and solid-average change-up. Koehler changes speeds well, but doesn’t have much deception in his delivery. He has the ingredients to be a durable, back-of-the-rotation starter. What we know for sure is that regardless of what happens in this game, fading Chad Gaudin at prices like this has tremendous profit potential over time.
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Tampa Bay +101 over N.Y. YANKEES (5 innings)SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. This same Yankees team would not be favored in this spot if they were wearing any other uniforms. The Yanks are close to being a complete mess. They do not have a single .300 hitter in the line-up. At least five of the nine hitters they will send to the plate today are batting under .240. Batting cleanup with either be Thomas Neal (.211 BA – 0HR’s, 2 RBI’s) or Vernon Wells and his .225 BA. The Yankees have sunk to third place in the AL East after a hot start and they’re likely going to be overtaken by both the Rays and Jays soon. Since coming off the GL to start on June 3, Andy Pettitte has been hammered in two of three starts by the Indians and Angels. In between those, Pettitte threw a gem at Seattle but that park could make Bob Barker look good. Pettitte is 41-years old and in one inning shy of 3200 career innings. His health, age, arm mileage and recent struggles all say he is never going to regain the form that made him one of the most reliable and big-game pitchers ever. Pettitte is now pure fade material pitching for this depleted Yankee squad.
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Matt Moore is starting to see his surface stats match his more wobbly skill base. His current 4.12 ERA is still lower than his 4.60 xERA. His control becomes extremely volatile when he pitches from a full windup but it's a lot better with runners on base, suggesting he’s an adjustment away from being the 8-0 pitcher with a 2.29 ERA that he was after his May 19th start, Earlier in the year, Moore faced the Yanks and a threw an eight-inning, two hit beauty. We’re not expecting anything like that but at least Moore has that game in his mind and you can expect him to be much better than his past few pitching lines.
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Los Angeles +117 over SAN DIEGO (5 innings)SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres went on a serious run recently with 10 wins in 12 games but it appears to be over. San Diego is coming off back-to-back losses in San Francisco and with injuries to key starting personnel that include Everth Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso, the Padres could be in trouble. With those injuries and Jason Marquis starting, San Diego is a huge risk as the favorite. Marquis has no value whatsoever. His skill set is worse than ever so don’t buy into that misleading 3.63 ERA. A true measure of his skills can be fund in Marquis's 5.34 xERA, which is one of the worst xERA's in the bg leagues. Marquis used to get by with a decent control rate decent but even that has abandoned him this year with 47 walks in 83 frames. He's maintaining his usual weak strikeout rate and his success so far has hinged entirely on an 81% strand rate. That won't last. Everything in Marquis' skill set screams to avoid. The combination of more walks, few K’s and more home runs spells some huge disasters down the road and it’s probably going to come sooner than later.
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Stephen Fife was a third round selection of the Red Sox in ’08 before being sent to Los Angeles at the trade deadline in ’11. He has all the potential in the world and reached the majors in ’12 and started five games. Fife offers a big and durable frame along with the ability to induce groundball outs. In 22 innings this season, his groundball rate is outstanding at 64%. He throws with loose arm action that gives him some projection, but he hasn’t realized his true velocity potential. He generally sits in the 88-93 mph range with his quality sinker and he can sometimes touch 95 if he has to. Fife works ahead in the count consistently and rarely puts hitters on base via the walk. He has 21 K’s and seven walks, which is a solid 3-1 ratio. An opportunity opened up for Fife at the beginning of this month and the kid has responded with three solid outings. Fife’s chances of out-pitching Marquis and leading after five frames are probably in the 80%/20% range. Wrong side favored.
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for tonight is the Tampa Bay Rays, fresh off an upset in Boston, to get it done with their ace Matt Moore in Yankee Stadium against the New York Yankees.
I know Moore has struggled of late - he's seen his ERA rise from 2.18 to 4.12 over his last three starts - but this is a big game and I think he'll arrive for it. He also is looking to avenge previous outings in the Bronx, as he's allowed five earned runs in eight career innings at Yankee Stadium.
I'd rather take the plus-money over Andy Pettitte, who is looking to get back on track against the Rays after allowing four runs on a season-high 11 hits against the Angels last Friday. And I can't help but point out how the veteran southpaw has been inconsistent since coming off the disabled list, surrendering nine runs over 19 innings.
Take the road dog and list both.
4* TAMPA BAY
CHRIS JORDAN
My free winner is on the Boston Red Sox over the Detroit Tigers in American League action between division powers. The Red Sox lead the East, and the Tigers lead the Central. And while this one is in Motown, yes, I think the Red Sox are the better team right now and cannot rightfully back the Tigers.
Boston gets a chance to open the series with a win by jumping all over Jose Alvarez, who just recently made his MLB debut, and will struggle in a big game like this. I know Alvarez carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning of his Major League debut, but this is too big for him to perform.
Trust me on this, take the Red Sox.
4* BOSTON
BRETT ATKINS
My free play is on the Giants to destroy the Marlins tonight, as it's a good spot for a blowout by the defending World Series champions.
The Marlins have the fewest road wins in the majors, and even though there are some who like to believe their performances in the Bay Area will make a difference in this series. Miami is horrendous, while the Giants are contending for another division title.
So forget about the seven-game win streak the Marlins boast in Frisco, it's irrelevant. The Giants will avoid an eighth straight home loss to the Marlins, and I think the defending champs will do so with a four-run blowout - at least.
Miami can't even score, let alone win ball games, of late. The Marlins have scored just six times on meager 16 hits over their last three games.
Take the Giants in a rout tonight.
4* SAN FRANCISCO
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is the Padres over the Dodgers.
San Diego has been cooled off just a little, as they have lost their last pair of games, but they are in a good spot tonight, as they are at home, and do catch the Dodgers fresh off playing a double-header at Yankee Stadium yesterday.
Have to believe that Los Angeles may be just a little jet-lagged when they hit the field tonight.
Jason Marquis is going for his 9th winning decision in a row, and his 4th in a row over the Dodgers. His team has also won 4 of the last 6 meetings in the series, and will go against Stephen Fife who is making just his 5th start of the season.
Fife's lone win thus far in the rotation comes at the expense of the Friars back on June 3rd. Look for the Padres to turn the tables tonight with Marquis once again baffling the tired LA bats.
Padres to win the weekend opener.
4* SAN DIEGO
BRAD WILTON
Tonight, another comp play total, and that will be on the Under in the Mariners-Angels contest with Hernandez and Hanson.
These teams are concluding their three game set, and the first pair of games have both held Under the total, including a 1-0 final last night in Anaheim. That makes the Under 6-3 in the 9 series meetings this year between these West rivals.
Look for another Under tonight, as Felix Hernandez has already held down the Halos once this season back in April, and enters this game on a 3-0 run with a 1.84 ERA his last 4 trips to the mound, and has a 12 inning scoreless stretch coming into tonight's start.
Tommy Hanson will counter for Los Angeles, and Hanson has been throwing much better of late, winning his last 2 starts. Hanson is fresh off striking out a season-high 8 batters in the Angels 6-2 win over the Yankees last weekend.
Runs could be scarce again tonight.
M's-Angels to hold Under.
4* SEATTLE-L.A. ANGELS UNDER
Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs +6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I really went back and forth with this game. At first I thought the Spurs blew it and now Miami is going to blow them out in Game 7. This might actually happen, but as a handicapper you have to separate your emotions from selecting games. Just like when I picked the Spurs in Game 6 I said “What has Miami done to prove they should be a 7pt favorite”? Well, nothing has changed in 48 hours. I will say this about the Spurs. This is the best team in the last 15 years. They have won on big stages and losing in the NBA Finals is something they have not experienced. This team is well coached and as far as team level talent there is no question they are the better team. Everyone is making a big deal about Lebron taking off his headband for the first time. He doing that did not make him a better basketball player. This is a team game. The guy gets so much heat and in a way it’s deserving. Simply put the Spurs counted their eggs before they hatched and chocked that game away. Miami might very well win this game and to be honest I don’t care and hope they do because I am tired of hearing about Lebron and you know that is all we will hear about in the offseason if they lose. I do not think the Spurs are going to go down without a fight. We are playing the odds here. We had a great NBA playoff run and I hope you take advantage of my early bird special which ends after this weekend. Baseball remains free at the website. Take San Antonio.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Pittsburgh +165
After two decades of failure, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a team on the rise. This is a team has been rebuilt to finally reach "contender" status. They are playing .500 baseball on the road for the first time in ages, and are certainly in a winnable situation every time they take the field. Homer Bailey has a losing record for a top-level team, and his season has been up and down. The Pirates have been strong off a weak offensive showing in their previous contest, as they have an admirable 20-7 mark in their last 27 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. They stand a perfect 5-0 in an extended four-game series finale in their last five. The Reds have taken the donut in Bailey's last 6 starts on regular 4 days rest at 0-6. Take the Pirates.
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San Antonio Spurs at Miami HeatFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami HeatFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Home teams in Game Sevens have traditionally done very well in the NBA Finals, going 14-3 and the road team hasn't won since 1978. Miami also has the momentum after a huge comeback late in the fourth quarter and for LeBron James personally, his confidence has to be through the roof after putting on a show in the fourth quarter. Miami won by 23 points against Indiana at home in a Game Seven setting in their previous series, and we feel the home court advantage will play a big role. Spurs have relied on their three-point shooting throughout this series but they were just 5-18 in Game Six. You live by the three, you die by the three - and we'll back the Heat to win on their home court as they pull away in the second half to a big win.
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LA Dodgers vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even with a loss yesterday, the Padres are still .500 on the season, checking in at 36-36. That includes a solid 22-14 mark here at Petco.
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Even with a split yesterday and win last night, the Dodgers are still 30-40 on the season, 11-20 on the road.
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The Padres are 24-13 (+6.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Dodgers are 27-43 (-13.4) as road underdogs in the 100 to 125 range.
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Marquis goes for the home team. All he's done is go 9-2 on the season, 6-1 here at Petco and a perfect 8-0 his last 10 starts.
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Marquis is also 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA against the Dodgers. That includes a 2-0 mark with a stellar 2.53 ERA in four starts against them since the start of last year.
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LA Manager Don Mattingly noted: "Marquis is a tough matchup, he's given us trouble. He seems like he pitches good every time. He's a guy that keeps the ball down. He can run the ball at you and break the ball off the plate to the other side. He's tough."
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Fife has only made two road starts. He's 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in those games.
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With Fife averaging less than five innings away from home, note that the Dodgers' relievers have a poor 4.55 ERA on the road. By comparison, San Diego relievers have a 2.79 ERA at home.
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Not only should the Padres potentially enjoy an edge on the mound but they've also got the schedule in their favor. While the Padres played an afternoon game at San Francisco yesterday, the Dodgers played a day/night double-header at New York. (They lost the first and one the second.)
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Note that LA, which is still without Kemp, is only 10-19 (-12.9) off a win this season.
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All things considered, things set up nicely for the home team and the price is fair. Consider San Diego
FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I truly believe the Spurs are every bit as good as Miami. The Heat had less than a 5% chance to win game 6, they got there, just like Chris Moneymaker spiking a miracle River Ace vs. Ivey.
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The Spurs are a mentally tough team. They won't fold after the Game 6 debacle.....rather it is clearly the Heat IMO that are likely to crumble when this one gets tight.
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Grab the +6 (I Bet +8-150), the only buy I do in the NBA is through the 7.
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Spurs / Heta Under 189FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Teams got tight, and stop taking any shots early in the shot clock. While this might not apply to the Spurs, it WILL apply to the Heat. Game 6 was at 182 with seconds remaining, and 2 miracle threes got it to 190 in regulation. I expect this 2h and 4Q is going to REALLY bog down.
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Chicago Cubs +170FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are getting the Chicago Cubs at an excellent price Thursday as a massive road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Once again, Scott Feldman isn't getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers in this one.
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Feldman has been the best starter in Chicago's rotation this year, going 6-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 13 starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last two road starts, giving up just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners over 13 innings against the Angels and Mets.
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Lance Lynn is having a solid season for St. Louis at 9-1 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 14 starts. Still, his numbers are worse than Feldman's on the year. Plus, Lynn has been rocked in his last two starts, giving up 11 earned runs and 20 base runners over 11 innings for a 9.00 ERA.
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Chicago is an impressive 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season. The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Chicago is 4-0 in Feldman's last 4 starts when working on 4 days of rest. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last 4 games following a win. Bet the Cubs Thursday.
MLB Predictions
San Francisco Giants -173
San Francisco Giants -1.5 +130
The Miami Marlins will travel to San Francisco after losing the final two games in a three game series with Arizona. Over their three games they managed just 5 runs scored and drop to 22-49 on the season (9-26 on the road). This will be their first meeting with the defending World Series champs who took the final 2 of 3 from San Diego to improve to 37-34 on the year and 23-12 at home. Miami’s starting pitcher is Tom Koehler who is 0-5 on the season with a 5.09 ERA, .250 OBA and 1.23. He had a good start to the year, but he has allowed 3+ earned runs in 5 straight starts and has a 9.18 ERA over his last three starts which includes allowing 9 earned runs over 4.2 innings of work in his last time out. Chad Gaudin will go for San Francisco and he is 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA, .227 OBA and 1.20 WHIP over his 21 appearances. Two of his three starts have been quality and he’s 2-0 as a starter. His only non-quality start was his last time out and it wasn’t too bad allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings in Atlanta. Take note that the Marlins are just 12-40 in their last 52 road games dating back to last season, 1-4 in Koehler’s last 5 starts as an underdog between +151 and +200, and 1-7 in his last 8 starts overall. The Giants are 54-18 in their last 72 games as a home favorite between -151 to -200, 37-17 in their last 54 home games overall, and 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 8 of the Giants last 10 wins have been by 2+ runs. We will split up today’s play into 2 one unit plays again going one unit on the money line and one unit on the run line to reduce our risk.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals -172
The Rockies have lost 7 of 10 on the road and 35 of 51 as a road dog. They'll have a difficult time keeping thess negative streaks from extending as they go up against Jordan Zimmermann. Washington's right-hander has been awesome, especially at home where he's 6-0 with an ERA of 1.06 in 7 starts. The Nats have won all 7. The Nationals are 23-7 in Zimmermann's last 30 starts, 21-5 in his last 26 starts as a favorite, 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Roy Oswalt has had an outstanding career, but his best days are behind him. He was 4-3 with a 5.80 ERA in 17 games - nine starts - last season for Texas. Take Washington.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Braves -177
The Braves have won 17 of their last 23 against the Mets, and I expect them to continue to dominate their division rival with Mike Minor on the mound. The Braves are 8-0 in Minor's last 8 starts, and he's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of those outings. The Mets, on the other hand, are 2-8 in Jon Niese's last 10 starts. He gave up 7 runs in 4 innings versus the Braves in one of the defeats during this span. Bet the Braves.