Ian Cameron
Miami at San Francisco
Play: Over
My clients and I have cashed a few Miami Marlins Over tickets since the returns of Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison to the lineup and I think we have another solid betting opportunity tonight as they head to the Bay Area to face the San Francisco Giants.
One of those Miami Over bets came in Tom Koehler’s last start as he was lit up big time allowing 9 runs on 8 hits in 4.2 rough innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Koehler simply doesn’t have dominating, overpowering stuff and it has shown in his last three starts as he has been knocked around for 17 earned runs and five homers. His performance level on the road hasn’t been good either notching an 0-2 record and a 5.04 ERA in four starts. I expect the surging San Francisco lineup which has scored 4+ runs in five of its last seven games to have a lot of success. On the flip side, I’m not sure how much longer Chad Gaudin can succeed as a starting pitcher. He had his worst start last time out against Atlanta allowing four runs on eight hits including two homers in five short innings. Miami has scored 5+ runs in five of its last 10 games and it’s been a product of the returns of Stanton and Morrison.
Miami is 3-0 to the Over in Koehler’s last three starts and they’ve gone on a 9-4-1 Over run in their last 14 games with totals in the 7 to 8.5 range. Miami’s game totals are lower due to their season long poor hitting numbers which have seen an uptick over the last two weeks. This is a low enough total at 7.5 involving two lineups hitting better of late and two suspect starters to play this one Over.