Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday June, 21

Ben Burns

Portugal @ Czech Republic
PICK: Portugal

In 2004, the Euro Cup was held in Portugal for the first time. That year's tournament had a number of surprises, as Germany, Spain and Italy were all eliminated during the group stage. With an upset loss (vs. Greece) in its opening game, the Portuguese looked like they too might be knocked out in the opening round. However, the hosts rebounded to win each of their next two games, beating Russia and Spain, to win their group. The Portuguese proceeded to defeat England in the quarter-finals and Holland in the semis, before eventually falling to Greece (in a rematch of the opening game) in the tournament.

Portugal is hoping to take a similar path to the Finals this year. After dropping their opener vs. a tough German team, things didn't look good. However, as they did in 2004, the Portuguese rebounded to win each of their next two games. They beat Denmark by a score of 3-2 and followed it up with a very strong effort against a talented and desperate Dutch squad, earning a 2-1 victory.

While they didn't win their group this time, the Portuguese did get a very favorable draw.

The Czechs did well to get this far and therefore demand respect. However, in terms of talent, the Czechs likely represent a step down in class in comparison to any team that the Portuguese faced in the group stage. While their group was always kind of "up in air," most didn't expect the Czechs to even make it this far.

Facing a Portuguese team that held both Germany and Holland to a single goal, I expect the Czechs to find scoring difficult.

The Portuguese won't be playing in their home country this time. However, they will have thousands of their countrymen in attendance. Their star (Ronaldo) came to life last game and figures to be the best player on the field. Consider Portugal on the "3-way line."

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Colorado Rockies

Colorado comes to Philadelphia with a terrific offense, third in baseball in runs scored and slugging, plus sixth in on-base percentage. Starter Jeff Francis had an awful opening start, but pitched better in his second start. Francis allowed four runs on eight hits, walking three and striking out two over 5.1 innings against the Tigers Friday night. Philadelphia has a losing home record and riding a miserable 4-12 run. Play the Rockies.

Scott Spreitzer

Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

The Nats parlayed a hot first inning at the plate with another strong outing by Stephen Strasburg into a 3-2 win last night, snapping a four game losing streak. I expect the Nationals to build on the win in this one. Matt Moore has pitched better of late, but he has not proven to be effective on the road yet. Moore has been pounded for a 5.01 ERA & 1.54 WHIP in four road starts this season. Moore simply awards to many "free passes" and Washington should be able to take advantage in this one. The Nats may not need a lot of offense with Gio Gonzalez on the hill. The Rays are on a 0-4 slide against starting pitchers with a WHIP below 1.15. Gonzalez' overall numbers with his new team are outstanding and even though he just faced a home & road situation with the Braves, a road game at Fenway, and a home game against the Yankees, Gonzalez still posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 10.5 Ks per 9 IP mark. Signing with the Nats has certainly paid off with his team winning 10 of his 13 starts. Gonzalez has been tremendous at home this season and his team is on a 26-9 as an IL favorite of -1.50 or less. Meanwhile, the Rays have won just 4 of their last 14 against lefthanders and they're averaging just 4.1 rpg against southpaws, overall. After snapping their losing streak last night, I'm playing Washington to win their second straight on Thursday.

Matt Fargo

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

Washington salvaged Game Two of this series last night behind another strong pitching performance from Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals will be going for the series win tonight. They remain three games in front of the Mets in the National League East and have the second best record in the National League overall. Washington continues to dominate with its pitching as the team ERA is now 3.01 which is the best in baseball. The Nationals are 26-9 in their last 35 Interleague games as a favorite of -150 or less. Tampa Bay is now 3-5 over its last eight games following a four-game winning streak and last night was its first road loss in its last six games on the highway. The Rays trail the Yankees by three games in the American League East and the offense was once again the problem on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is hitting only .235 on the season which is fourth lowest in all of baseball and while it has been better on the road, the pitching has been average away from home with a 4.08 team ERA. Gio Gonzalez gets the call for Washington as he looks to continue his outstanding season. He had a bad start against the Braves to start the month of June but has come back with two straight quality outings which makes it 10 quality starts in 13 games on the year. Overall he has a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and his numbers at home are even better as he has posted a 2.33 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts, five of which were quality. The Rays are 4-10 in their last 14 games against left-handed starters. The Rays send Matt Moore to the hill and he is also having a very good season but he has not been nearly as consistent. He has a 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 13 starts but only six of those resulted in quality efforts. His majority of work has come at home as he has made only four road starts all season with Tampa Bay going 1-3 in those games. His ERA in those games is 5.01 to go along with a 1.54 WHIP and Washington has been solid with a 16-7 record over its last 23 home games against left-handed starters.

Rob Vinciletti

Thunder vs. Heat
Play: Over 193.5

This game fits the Big Totals Angle below which has cashed 13 of 14 times in which OKC goes over the total on the road if they were a road dog and shot 45% or higher in their last game. The Thunder have played over in 11 of 14 on the road if they lost as a dog to tonight's opponent in their last game. The Thunder have gone over in 14 of 19 in the NBA playoffs and 3 of 4 when trailing in a series. Miami averages 100 points pee game and the Thunder the same on the road. Look for this one to play over the total.

Bryan Power

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

It's rare to see the Pirates favored this high on the money line, but in this case it is justified as they are off a loss and facing a poor Minnesota Twins team. The Twins "got them" yesterday, winning a low scoring 2-1 affair to even this series up after losing the opener 7-2.

Advantage Pirates in Thursday's finale with the pitching matchup certainly working in their favor. James McDonald has been great in his seven starts at PNC Park so far with a 1.75 ERA. He was a hard luck loser on the road in his most recent start, allowing just one run and three hits (six innings) against Cleveland, but the Pirates were shut out and lost the game 2-0.

The Pirates offense had actually been producing quite well during a three-game win streak, totaling 25 runs on 34 hits. Last night they were held to just one run on five hits, but shold get back on track here against struggling Twins rookie Liam Hendriks, who has been plain awful thus far. Hendriks, who is winless in nine major league starts, has allowed 8 HR's in five this year and is 0-3 with a frightening 11.92 ERA L3 starts. Despite last night's loss, the Pirates are still 9-2 last 11 home games including 5-1 last 6!

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Turner has been promoted to start this game for the Tigers, but I'm not seeing that his AAA numbers justify it. Turner is off a decent last few outings, but nothing sensational. Look for Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals to make it two straight wins over Detroit.

SPORTS WAGERS

Portugal -134 over Czech Republic

The first game of the knockout phase begins and Portugal should have aspirations of achieving more than just a win today. Portugal has certainly been one of the top three teams in the tournament thus far. They have a very solid unit in the middle of the park that works well with the defensive back four. They cover each other well and tactically look very sound. Offensively, Ronaldo and Nani have been as dangerous as any duo in the tournament. Their speed and goal scoring instincts will be a threat all day for the Czech defense. Kudos to the Czechs for advancing pass the group stage but to advance any further they will really have to step up its game. Amazingly, the Czechs progressed through group stage with a negative goal difference. The competition the Czechs will face moving forward are more complete and talented from an overall team perspective. It’s doubtful that the Czechs will get in the way of Portugal’s quest to get to the semi-finals. Play: Portugal -134 (Risking 2 units to win 1.49 units).

Brad Diamond Sports

Minnesota / Pittsburgh Over

There has been only 12 runs (7-2, 2-1) scored in the current three game set with Pittsburgh and Minnesota. No doubt the line tells us that with McDonald on the hill for Pittsburgh the total would look to be short just like yesterdays 2-1 Minnesota victory. However, the Twins throw Liam Hendricks who has been banged around this season as illustrated by a 11.92 ERA in his last three starts. Remember, Minnesota is 5-0 OVER after a win and 4-0 OVER with Hendricks in his last four outings and 6-1 OVER when booked as an UNDERDOG. Finally, we have Pittsburgh 4-0-1 OVER in McDonald’s last four Thursday starts. As far as the weather (90+) factor the heat is roasting, so the ball should be stroked long and far in Pittsburgh this evening.

JR O'Donnell

St Louis Cardinals -118

This game as stated is a matinee, slated for 1:05 PM EST as the ST Louis Cardinals visit the Detroit Tigers. Cards send out Kyle Lohse who is 6-2, 2.98 ERA & 1.14 WHIP. He has been very consistent all season,, and the Cards are #2 in the NL in scoring. For the Tigers it will be Jacob Turner who is in his first year in the bigs, and is 0-1, 8.53 ERA & 1.66 WHIP. He has been forced into a starting role because of injuries, and has allowed "17" hits in 12.2 innings pitched and "12" earned runs. ST Louis has too much fire power for this young man, and we see them as a small favorite winning here!

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Over in the Rockies-Phillies series finale.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday's games climbed Over the total, as Colorado is now on a 7-3 Over run their past 10 games.

Last night's Over put the Phillies on a 10-3 Over clip their past 13 games.

Tonight's pitchers are Jeff Francis and Vance Worley. It has been a rocky return to his former club for southpaw Francis, as he has worked just under 10 innings since his return to Colorado and has allowed a whopping 12 runs on 18 hits. I doubt he will meet with much success on this steamy Thursday night in Philadelphia's band-box.

Vance Worley has a 2.80 ERA for the year, but at home that ERA is significantly higher at 4.30 for the season.

With the pitchers having some issues - especially Francis - I see the ball being sprayed all over the park this Thursday night, as Colorado and Philadelphia make it a perfect 3-0 sweep Over the total at the bank tonight.

4♦ OVER

MATT RIVERS

And speaking of totals, for your free play winner tonight take the Over in the Marlins-Red Sox series finale.

Both games played this week at Fenway Park have gone well Over the total, as the teams have now played their last three in this year's series Over the posted price.

Miami's Carlos Zambrano has lost his way of late, and sports an ERA of 9 for his last three starts. Big Z has now allowed 22 earned runs his last 23 innings pitched.

Dice-K Matsuzaka is making just his third start of the season, and thus far he has allowed 7 runs in his 11 innings pitched.

Tell those manual scoreboard operator guys out in leftfield to be ready to hang some crooked digits up on that scoreboard tonight.

Miami and Boston Over the total!

4♦ OVER

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI -3½ over Oklahoma City

This was game 4 play, sorry.

Game 5

Oklahoma City +135 over MIAMI

Closeout games are commonly the toughest of all. The fact that the Heat are just a three-point choice tells us the odds makers give them a heck of a shot here. We can break it down with X’s and O’s but you can read about that anywhere. What we do know is that the Thunder cannot be counted out. They proved that after being down 0-2 to the Spurs before winning that series. They’ve lost three straight to the Heat but every game has come down to the final minute and the Thunder could just as easily be up 3-1. They’re under no pressure to win here. The Thunder are obviously a strong team. The difference in winning or losing could be the play of James Harden. If Harden steps up, this series could easily be headed back to OKC. The Thunder did not lose four straight all season. Their longest losing streak was three. The line strongly suggests they won’t lose four and with LeBron James a bad step away from aggravating his leg cramp issue, we’ll take a step in believing this visitor is too good to lose to the same team four in a row. Play: Oklahoma City +135 (Risking 2 units

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ Oklahoma City Over 193.5: As Much as I would like to take the Heat in this one to wrap it all up, I will go with the Over. I still feel the heat would like to wrap it up at home, but the Only shot that the Thunder has is to speed the game up, like they did in quarter 1 of game 4. They had a 17 point lead and 52 total points were scored in that quarter. The Heat have allowed just 88.1 ppg at home in the playoffs, but they did allow 98 points in the last game to the Thunder, so Oklahoma City can score on them. Plus if the Thunder is down late you can bet they will start fouling a bit earlier to pro long the game. Overall the Thunder has averaged 96 ppg in the series and 100 ppg on the road this year. Miami has been a good scoring team all year long and at home they have averaged 100 ppg, including 99.1 ppg in home playoff games. Oklahoma city is not a great defensive team on the road as they have allowed 98 ppg away from home. This should be a close game with an uptempo pace to it. OKC has no tomorrow if they lose so you can expect them to come out running and if they are down late, a lot of fouling as well. I expect 200+ in this one.