Tony George
Miami -3
Really have to say that OK City is a very good team, and they have a hell of a resume getting here but Miami’s overall team concept coming together and King James taking over and making this his team has solidified the Heat as the better team. I did not think that after game 1, but they have proven they have the experience and talent to get it done. A young team, on the road, all the pressure in the world, when they have not played all that well down the stretch in this series has me on the Heat to win this at home tonight. Oddsmakers consider 3 points on a home court on the average and your are telling me this 2 teams right now are even? No Way!! It is very tough to get to the Finals in any sport in back to back years and Miami will not let this slip away at home, they want it more and it has showed in this series. They have the most talented guy on the floor and quite frankly stats and ATS trends get thrown by the wayside here, The Heat Get it Done!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit/ St Louis Under 10: No I didn't learn my lesson from yesterday. Other than the humidity, there wasn't a damn stat or any indication at all that would have indicated that the Yanks and Braves would hit 9 HR's, especialy with good pitching on the mound. In this game there will be SOME humidity and the temp will be at 90 by game time, but I feel a 17mph wind that blow directly across the field to third base will negate some of the temp and humidity. Now on to some stats. Forget about the fact that Kyle Lohse has a 12.67 ERA in his last 4 starts with Detroit, as he last faced them in 2008 and the other 3 were as a member of the Twins in 2006. This year Kyle has been very good with a 2.98 ERA overall and a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kyle also has a 3.06 ERA in his road starts, with those starts averaging 8.8 rpg. Offensively the Cards have averaged 5.1 rpg in Day games this year, but they also come in slumping, having averaged just 3.6 rpg in their last 7 games and just 3 rpg vs the AL on the year. Yesterday I thought that Marco put out a couple of weak stats for the Yanks Over play, but here is one that I feel really makes sense. This year the Tigers have gone 21-10 UNDER in day games with an average of 8.1 rpg being scored, plus their interleague games have gone 7-6 UNDER, with just 8.3 rpg being scored. Jacob Turner gets the start for the Tigers tonight and this will be his first start of the year and 3rd start ever. Now having never faced the Cards he should have a slight advantage here, plus if he gets into trouble he does have a solid pen that has a 2.08 ERA behind him. to me it really doesn't make sense for this total to be going up. I know it will be hot, but that wind should knock the balls down and negate the heat. I look for around 8 runs in this one.
Boston/ Miami Over 10.5: Last night the Red Sox exploded for 15 runs and while i do not expect that much from them here they should be good for at least 6 or 7 in this one, especially with the heat and humidity still around. Carlos Zambrano has been hit hard in his last 2 starts as he allowed 11 ER's with 9 walks and just 4 K's in 4.1 total innings of work. Carlos does have a 2.36 ERA on the road, but a 4.38 ERA at night on the year. The Miami Staff as a hole comes in with a 6.55 ERA in their last 10 games, while allowing 6.9 rpg over that stretch. The Miami offense came in struggling, but in this park with the heat they have put up 5 runs in each game and should be good for at least that much vs Dice-K, who really hasn't looked solid in his return, with a 5.73 ERA in his 2 starts. This Boston offense is rolling right now as they have averaged 7.2 rpg in their last 6 games, and in those last 6 games they have faced Miami 3 times and have put 32 runs in the 3 games. Another hot and humid night in Boston, should produce plenty of runs here.
Jack Jones
Rays / Nationals Under 7
I fully expect a pitcher's duel tonight between the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals. Two of the best young starters in the game will be going head-to-head in Gio Gonzalez and Matt Moore, and each will have to bat under National League rules.
Gonzalez has been absolutely dominant this season as he's made the switch from the American League to the National League. The left-hander is 8-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in six home starts.
Moore got off to a slower start than expected this season after shining in the postseason. But the left-hander has really kicked it into gear of late, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts. The Nationals are hitting .222 against left-handed starters this season, while the Rays are hitting .234 against southpaws.
Washington is 31-13 UNDER in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 33-14 UNDER after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 7-2 in Rays last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The UNDER is 7-2 in Rays last 9 games as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
WUNDERDOG
Oklahoma City at Miami
Pick: First Half Under 96
Oklahoma City has to do a better job with their defensive initiative early in this game, as it is the area with which they have struggled. The first two games here have failed to top the first half total posted here, and with so much on the line for the Thunder they will have their defensive hats on early - something the Heat has done all series. The Thunder have yet to reach 50 points in the first half while OKC has kept the Heat under 50 in each of the last two. As a small home favorite (favored by 3 or less), the Heat are 15-5 UNDER in the first half the past couple of seasons. They are also 16-5 UNDER in the first-half at home over that span when the total is set between 96 and 98, as it is here. OKC is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in the first-half in their last seven road games vs. good shooting teams like the Heat (teams hitting 46%+ from the field). Take the first half UNDER in this one.
Teddy Covers
Miami @ Boston
PICK: Over 11
“Teddy did it again in Game 4 on Tuesday, cashing another 'right side' NBA Playoff Total winner with the Heat-Thunder Over. He's on a smokin' 9-1 (90%) totals run; locked and loaded with tonight’s Game 5 Heat-Thunder O/U winner!
We saw a 20 run outburst between these two teams yesterday right here at Fenway, a game that flew Over the total by the fifth inning for the second consecutive night. On another hazy, hot evening in Boston with a pair of suspect starters on the hill and a pair of overworked bullpens behind them, look for another high scoring affair in the finale of this three game set.
The Red Sox lineup is tearing the cover off the ball right now, pounding out 22 runs in the first two games of this series, while producing seven runs or more in four of their last six overall. Miami’s Carlos Zambrano has cooled off following his hot start, needing 78 pitches two complete only two innings of his last start; his second straight outing where he couldn’t find the strike zone and couldn’t finish three innings of work. Zambrano is ‘fade’ material right now, and the bullpen behind him isn’t fresh and hasn’t been effective over the course of the last week. That’s how the Marlins have allowed 10 or more more runs in three of their last six overall – bullpen meltdowns.
Boston’s Dice-K isn’t much easier to trust than Zambrano right now. He’s struggled with his command in both starts since coming off the DL, despite facing a pair of slumping lineups (the Cubs and Nationals), with a 5.73 ERA in that span. Matsuzaka had an ERA above 7.00 at home last year and above 5.00 in 2010, a bad fit for this ballpark. Miami’s lineup isn’t as potent as that of the Red Sox, but this is one starter they should be able to hit! Take the Over.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +110
The Rockies have lost 4 in a row and 12 of their last 13. Those 12 losses have come by an average of 4.4 runs and 11 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Rockies have also lost 5 in a row and 11 of their last 12 versus the Phillies. Those 11 losses have come by an average of 2.9 runs and 3 of the last 4 defeats have come by 2 at least 2 runs. Vance Worley has pitched well (2.80 ERA) but hasn't received much run support. The Phillies, who have scored 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games, should be able to offer him some run support tonight. Colorado's Jeff Francis checks in with an ERA of 12.47 and has given up at least 4 runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. Take Philadelphia on the run line.