Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 3,2010

Insider Angles

After coasting through much of the regular season and finishing fourth in the East, the Celtics have resembled the Boston championship team of two years ago in these playoffs. They are second in the playoffs in points against, allowing only 91.4 points per game during the post-season, trailing only the Orlando Magic team they just eliminated. They are also third in the playoffs in field goal percentage against at 43.8 percent.

Boston certainly represents a different obstacle for the Lakers, who have not seen a defense quite like this in a long time, as they have become accustomed to facing the more wide open teams in the Western Conference. That said, while the Celtics are third in the post-season in field goal percentage against and Orlando is first, do you know who is second? That would be these Lakers, who are just a hair ahead of the Celtics at 43.7 percent!

In other words, the difference between these two defenses is not as vast as many people think, as the higher scoring Lakers games are a direct function of the faster pace their games are normally played at. The pace should be much slower in this series, and that actually suits the Lakers fine, as the adjusted defensive numbers for these teams are actually quite similar. In fact, both teams are allowing an identical 1.04 points per possession.

The end result of all this should be a much lower scoring series than some people expect, as we feel this series will closely resemble the two regular season meetings that saw just 173 and 179 points scored respectively! Therefore, we’ll kick things off with a play on the Under in Game 1.

Pick: Celtics / Lakers Under 192

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

When Freddy Garcia takes the hill against Colby Lewis in the finale of this three game series in Chicago this evening he will do so knowing he has cashed in four of his last five team starts. On the flip side, Lewis is 0-3 in his last three road starts with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in those efforts. With that, look for Lewis to remain winless in his career against the Pale Hose here tonight.

Craig Trapp

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins -1.5

Huge pitching mismatch here as Josh Johnson looks to continue his amazing home pitching. Johnson is 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA in seven outings at home this season and has posted a 2.35 ERA in winning his two career starts against the Brewers. He face often injured Capauno who has not pitched in over 2 1/2 years. Expect Johnson to be great and Capauno won't be bad but will not go deep in game. Even with a win yesterday still FLA is 2-1 on year verse MIL winning both other games by more than the R/L. Get away day will not be kind to a lineup that does not hit quality pitchers very well. This one has blowout all over it.

Rob Vinciletti

Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: Over 9

What we want to do is play the over when we have a road favorite off a road dog win if they scored 5 or more runs and left 5 or more men on base vs an opponent off a home favored loss that also scored 5 or more runs and left 4 or less on base. These road dogs have played over 80% of the time. In the pitching match up the Whitesox have F. Garcia on the mound and he has gone over in 3 of his 4 home starts and has a 5.24 era here at home. Over his last 3 starts he has been very hittable with an elevated 6.46 era. Texas has Lewis on the mound and he has allowed 15 earned runs on 20 hits, including 4 home runs in just 9 innings pitched vs Chicago. Good for a whopping 10.26 era. Four of the 5 games played between the two teams have flown over the total this season and this one has the makings of another high scoring affair. Based on the system and the pitching match up we will go with the over tonight.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Brewers @ Marlins
PICK: Marlins -1.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Marlins on the "run line":

Chris Capuano gets the nod for the Brewers; Capuano pitched well in the minors but has been away from the bigs since September 2007 having had to have Tommy John surgery twice.

He started 2007 with a 5-0 record, but then lost his last 12 decisions.

In the other dugout: Josh Johnson goes for the home side; last time out Johnson lost his start 1-0 as his counterpart Roy Halladay pitched a perfect game.

Johnson though is 5-2 on the year with a 2.19 ERA; he's 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA in seven in front of the hometown crowd and has posted a 2.35 ERA in two lifetime victories over the Brewers.

Bottom line: The Marlins bats have come alive; they've plated 23 runs over their last three contests, and although they lost 7-4 to Milwaukee last night, I expect this team, behind the superior pitcher, to bounce back this evening.

Keep in mind as well that Florida is 12-6 (+5.7 units) vs. left-handed starters this year.

Consider taking a second look at the MARLINS on the "run line" in this situation.

Tom Freese

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas starter Colby Lewis has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. The Rangers are 16-5 their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 12-5 their last 17 games as favorites. Texas is 7-3 in the last 10 starts made by Lewis as a favorite and they are 4-1 their last 5 games with the White Sox. Chicago starter Freddie Garcia has allowed 11 runs in his last 15 innings of work. The White Sox are 1-7 on Thursday and they are 2-5 their last 7 home games. The Pale Hose are 1-5 vs. AL West teams and they are 1-4 their last 5 games when the Total 9.0 to 10.5 PLAY ON TEXAS -

Jim Feist

Brewers vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8

Florida is a good pitcher's park and a pair of starters take the hill with above average stuff. Florida just finished up a 3-game home stand with the Phillies where all three went under the total, with the winning team scoring 1, 1 and 3 runs. Milwaukee unveils lefty Chris Capuano, his first start of the season, a guy who knows how to throw strikes. Josh Johnson also throws strikes, the Florida ace, walking 21 in 70 innings with a 2.19 ERA. His last three starts he's thrown 20 innings and allowed zero runs. Look for a defensive duel, play the Brewers/Marlins Under the total.

James Patrick Sports

Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers

After (1,305) games over the course of (7) months the two teams still standing are the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers and they will renew acquaintences for the 12th time in the NBA Finals Series. Boston poses more problems for the "Lake Show" than any other opponent Los Angeles has seen this postseason as the Celtics are stronger inside and are playing at a Championship level this postseason while owning the best defense the NBA has to offer. The Celtics are (12-5) ATS in this postseason and they have done it with Defense, Defense wins Championships and we look for Boston to pull the Upset, (In the oddsmakers eyes - not ours), and raise it's 18th banner to the rafters at the TD Bank North Garden. Celtics in six is our call.

EZWINNERS

Seattle Mariners -133

Minnesota's starting pitcher Carl Pavano has pitched well this season, but he usually does not receive much run support and I don't expect that to change in this game against Seattle with King Felix on the mound. The Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez pitched eight plus innings on Saturday against the Angels, allowing only one run on six hits. This was actually the best game that Hernandez had pitched this season as he had great command of both his fastball and breaking ball. Hernandez has only allowed seven runs in his last four outings and I look for another strong effort from Hernandez in this game. The Mariners offense should be able to do enough damage against Pavano who does not strike out many batters to pick up the win. The Mariners are 7-1 in Hernandez's last eight home starts against a team with a winning record Play on Seattle.

Larry Ness

ANA (+110) vs KAN

The Angels have won the last three AL West titles (five of the last six) but the 2010 season has hardly been typical of the team's play during that span. However, after spending the entire month of May below .500 (Angels opened the month with SIX straight losses!), the Angels can climb back to .500 with a win this afternoon in KC. Jered Weaver gets the start and he's been the team's most consistent pitcher this season. He's only managed four wins (just two losses) in 11 starts (team is 6-5) but one can't ignore his 2.75 ERA. His last win came back on May 7 and in his last four starts, has just one poor outing. He allowed nine hits and five ERs in 4.2 innings of a loss at Texas but in the other three (despite three no decisions with the Angels losing twice), he allowed just 14 hits and three ERs over 20 innings (1.35 ERA) with a 26-7 KW ratio. Weaver will be opposed by last year's AL Cy Young award winner, Zach Greinke. Greinke won't have to 'sweat' the voting this year, as he's 1-6, despite a 3.39 ERA after 11 starts in 2010. He's been near the bottom all season when it comes to run support and the Royals are 2-9 (minus-$895) in his starts this season, making him MLB's biggest "money-burner!" The Angels have won two of the first three games of this four-game series and with a win today, would capture their sixth straight series over the Royals. Why not? LA has won 23 of 30 at Kansas City since the start of the 2004 season.

Jr. O'Donnell

LAKERS - 180 TO 185 win the series boys, we sliced, diced and took apart every angle here in this series and the way the "Lakers' play on the "D" end will put Jr O on a "LAKE SHOW" win in 5. Kobe gets it going and we feel that Rondo comes back to earth here vs. the Lake Show. We tried very hard to back the Dog here but the #'s we ran just don't lie. Lakers - 180 to -185 take the crown.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Milwaukee Brewers at Florida Marlins

The Brewers average 5.8 runs per game on the road this season. Eight of the last nine meetings between these two clubs have gone Over the total. As a favorite of $1.50 or more the marlins have gone Over in eight of nine opportunities. Milwaukee is also in a favorable situation as they have gone Over in 12 of their 16 games as a road underdog. Florida’s Josh Johnson is also no stranger to going Over when the total is set from 8-8.5 as those games have gone Over all seven times this season. We suggest going Over the total tonight.

Play on: Over

Matt Fargo

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

Texas has won the first two games of this series with near identical scores of 9-6 and 9-5. This comes after scoring nine runs total in the previous four games combined. While the Rangers have seemed to bust out of the funk, it may not come as easy tonight. Freddy Garcia takes the hill for the White Sox and by looking at his 5.26 ERA, one might think he is having a horrible season but it has not been that bad. He has tossed six quality outings in nine starts and only two of his games have been bad and hurt his overall numbers. He allowed seven runs to both Toronto and Florida, covering a total of just four innings but those have been the aberration more than the norm. In those six quality games, he allowed two runs or fewer in each. He has faced Texas only once in the last four years and that is a big advantage. He goes up against Colby Lewis who has been a pleasant story this season. He went over to Japan following rough times here and came back a new pitcher. He has a 3.41 ERA through 10 starts but has a lower quality start percentage than Garcia and that is important. He has not faced the White Sox since 2007 but that start he allowed 10 runs in just 3.1 innings and that is a psychological disadvantage as that cannot be forgotten by him. The White Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and they are 8-0 in Garcia’s last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Chicago White Sox

Rocketman Sports

LA Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: LA Angels

LA Angels are 110-83 on the road the past 3 years. LA Angels are 79-34 in day games the past 3 years. LA Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games overall while Kansas City has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Kansas City bullpen has a 5.35 ERA at home this year. Jered Weaver is 4-2 with a 3.01 ERA overall this year. Zack Greinke is 1-6 overall this year and 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 14-4 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years. Greinke is 1-3 overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels today!